Gagner is getting a little old to be banking on upside. At 25 years old with 7 seasons under his belt and no discernible upward trend in his play, at this point, he is what he is. I'll take a ball of energy like Grabovski over a soft dangler like Gagner as my 2nd line center any day of the week.
- Snowblind

He just turned 25. Most forwards prime years are 24-32 from what I've seen; it is not that unusual for a 24/25 year guy to have a jump in point production without a slow trend upward. Same as not unusual for a forward in their early 30's to have a sudden drop.

If you want to talk about value that's a different conversation, and if you want to compare salaries you should remember that grabovski signed his this year as a ufa and I believe Gagner was extended while still a RFA 2 years ago.

3.2 is what Gagner made last season, next year is 4 then 5 and 5
3 is what grabovski made last season, 4 this the 5,5,6.

All according to cap geek at least.
http://capgeek.com/player/178
http://capgeek.com/player/23
- belcherbd

$3.2 is the cap hit to AZ for Gagner. $5 is the cap hit to NYI for Grabovski. They were both obtained essentially without giving up assets, so I think the comparison is fair.

He just turned 25. Most forwards prime years are 24-32 from what I've seen; it is not that unusual for a 24/25 year guy to have a jump in point production without a slow trend upward. Same as not unusual for a forward in their early 30's to have a sudden drop.
- Tumbleweed

Where can he really improve though? I don't see him suddenly getting much faster or stronger, and he's already been in the league long enough to basically be set when it comes to IQ and two-way play...I just don't see an area where he's suddenly going to improve. For younger guys it's usually getting stronger, learning how to play in all 3 zones, etc.

He just turned 25. Most forwards prime years are 24-32 from what I've seen; it is not that unusual for a 24/25 year guy to have a jump in point production without a slow trend upward. Same as not unusual for a forward in their early 30's to have a sudden drop.
- Tumbleweed

From what I've seen, players that have been in the league as long as Gagner don't suddenly just get better out of nowhere. He may be 25, but he has played 7 seasons and over 400 NHL games. He's had every opportunity to firmly establish himself as a top-six forward with the Oilers and he never quite got there. Why is it suddenly going to happen for him in Arizona?

But somehow he is objectively better than Grabovski, who has been a better player by any reasonable measure except for one season.

From what I've seen, players that have been in the league as long as Gagner don't suddenly just get better out of nowhere. He may be 25, but he has played 7 seasons and over 400 NHL games. He's had every opportunity to firmly establish himself as a top-six forward with the Oilers and he never quite got there. Why is it suddenly going to happen for him in Arizona?

But somehow he is objectively better than Grabovski, who has been a better player by any reasonable measure except for one season.
- Snowblind

Man, you are entitled to your opinion, but your reasoning is seriously flawed.

You can't look at a guy who got traded for cap space and infer he is a bad player or not valued highly. That is ridiculous. The fact is, Gagner is better than Grabovski and that is not my opinion; it's reality.
- James_Tanner

Mmm nope, it's your opinion.

Mmm nope, it's your opinion.
- Not_Yan

No, it's reality. His laughable views and opinions are quite real.

From what I've seen, players that have been in the league as long as Gagner don't suddenly just get better out of nowhere. He may be 25, but he has played 7 seasons and over 400 NHL games. He's had every opportunity to firmly establish himself as a top-six forward with the Oilers and he never quite got there. Why is it suddenly going to happen for him in Arizona?

but somehow he is objectively better than Grabovski, who has been a better player by any reasonable measure except for one season.
- Snowblind

The timing of the comparison between the 2 players makes it challenging. Grabovski has played in the nhl from ages 24-30. Gagner from 18-24. For most guys (I lump these two players as most guys), prime years are 24-32. The two players have effectively the same ppg career average, one playing mostly during his prime years, one playing mostly before his prime years.

I see your point that Gagner potentially could have broke through a year or 2 earlier if he was likely to break through. I'm not certain there is a lot of history of good players being rushed into the nhl as 18 year olds for comparison. Most guys entering the league as 18 year olds are elite players and typically start their prime offensive years a few years earlier than most players.

Gagner did show signs in a shorten season two years ago being able to produce at a higher rate offensively. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt that last year he was thrown off by the injury last year and his potential still has a reasonably good chance to turn into results this year.

I think this season is essentially Gagner's is last kick at the can to prove he can mature into an effective offensive player. After this year, I think the odds will be really stacked against him.

As far as Grabovksi, I see it as very likely that he only has a couple more good offensive years left in him and he has likely already achieved his career year offensively.

Where can he really improve though? I don't see him suddenly getting much faster or stronger, and he's already been in the league long enough to basically be set when it comes to IQ and two-way play...I just don't see an area where he's suddenly going to improve. For younger guys it's usually getting stronger, learning how to play in all 3 zones, etc.
- Nucker101

Good question. I think generally most guys just become more mentally mature around the age of 24. I'm not entirely sure what changes as an nhl player at that age.

I think the Canucks have done well in being patient over the years giving guys like the Sedins, Bertuzzi, Naslund, Kesler etc an opportunity to mature after their 24th birthdays. All guys who had similar point per game production to Gagner in their early 20's and significantly improved their point production after the age of 24.

Good blog!! I've thought that name for an arena was stupid FOREVER!! Now the new one ain't great either... but they couldn't do worse!! What's with this river that it's name should be EVER used again? This team and names has just been one big CLUSTER*/@^...!!!!!