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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Flyers Pilgrimages, Quick Hits
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hammarby31
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: it's been 84 years, AZ
Joined: 01.02.2007

Aug 12 @ 4:57 PM ET
http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/eye-on-hockey/24599252/report-nhl-draft-lottery-changes-likely-to-come-in-2015
- Feanor


Dwight schrute's angry, drunken cousin?
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Aug 12 @ 5:03 PM ET
This should be posted in r/Nosleep... chilling.
- Tomahawk


This is why I'm very nervous about this season. Everyone is assuming Coburn has turned the corner and is the steady, defensive side of a top pairing. It was only 1 year ago that he was coming off a very rough season. Timonen always brings out the best in players. Will Coburn be able to sustain his level of play with Streit, Grossmann, Amac???
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Aug 12 @ 5:03 PM ET
ESPN has awful hockey coverage. It's, virtually, useless for any type of hockey news.
- PhillySportsGuy

I do agree with their pick of Vasilevskiy as the #1 goalie, though. He's gonna be a force.
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Aug 12 @ 5:06 PM ET
Laughton, Hagg and Sanheim.

The guy hates Morin and left Ghost out, too.

- Feanor

That's still not atrocious considering Florida has something like 5 in the top 100 and they're a rebuilding team.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Aug 12 @ 5:09 PM ET
I do agree with their pick of Vasilevskiy as the #1 goalie, though. He's gonna be a force.
- JAKEw1234


Was John Gibson and/or Jack Campbell on the list?
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Aug 12 @ 5:09 PM ET
This is why I'm very nervous about this season. Everyone is assuming Coburn has turned the corner and is the steady, defensive side of a top pairing. It was only 1 year ago that he was coming off a very rough season. Timonen always brings out the best in players. Will Coburn be able to sustain his level of play with Streit, Grossmann, Amac???
- PhillySportsGuy


I think his play (and everyone's) will take a small step back at the least, but that's more a factor of not having Timonen as opposed to their skill sets all simultaneously regressing.
Tomahawk
Ottawa Senators
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Aug 12 @ 5:11 PM ET
I do agree with their pick of Vasilevskiy as the #1 goalie, though. He's gonna be a force.
- JAKEw1234


My money is on Mrazek out of Detroit... Gibson and Vasilevskiy have higher upside, but Mrazek has that certain je ne sais quoi.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Aug 12 @ 5:11 PM ET
That's a bit of a misconception.

CF/FF captures how the entire team does when he's on the ice. How he handles the puck is part of that, but all the other "little things" he does to contribute to the team's success (or failure) to control play while he's out there is captured as well to some extent: reads, positioning, support, good decision-making, etc.

It's not just a measure of puck skill.

There are plenty of examples of comparable players who aren't naturals with the puck but still managed not to hurt their teams in the possession game this past season: Scandella, Dillon, Methot, Volchenkov, Allen, Ericsson, Jackman, etc. Lot of those guys have the same mobility, injury issues, too.

To me, what separates them from Grossmann could be tactics (out of a player's control) and decision-making... I don't believe 8 is consistently making the best plays w/ and w/o the puck.

- Tomahawk


So, if the other team is cycling the puck, and the Flyers play fantastic defensive zone defense which is preached by coaches where they keep the puck to the outside, get their sticks in passing lanes to the inside, block shot attempts, lay a few nice hits, and then finally get the puck and clear it to center for a line change, that's considered "bad" by the rating system, correct?
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Aug 12 @ 5:12 PM ET
Was John Gibson and/or Jack Campbell on the list?
- jmatchett383

I don't know, they only let you see the #1 prospect before making you pay.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Aug 12 @ 5:16 PM ET
This is why I'm very nervous about this season. Everyone is assuming Coburn has turned the corner and is the steady, defensive side of a top pairing. It was only 1 year ago that he was coming off a very rough season. Timonen always brings out the best in players. Will Coburn be able to sustain his level of play with Streit, Grossmann, Amac???
- PhillySportsGuy


Just think about how good of draft it is next summer and all your fears go away
Tomahawk
Ottawa Senators
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Aug 12 @ 5:18 PM ET
So, if the other team is cycling the puck, and the Flyers play fantastic defensive zone defense which is preached by coaches where they keep the puck to the outside, get their sticks in passing lanes to the inside, block shot attempts, lay a few nice hits, and then finally get the puck and clear it to center for a line change, that's considered "bad" by the rating system, correct?
- jmatchett383


Not really.

There are going to be shifts where you're stuck in your zone for whatever reason... having players who can weather that situation and mitigate the damage against is still important toward coming out ahead in the numbers.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Aug 12 @ 5:18 PM ET
you mean all the millions of dollars made in the playoffs isn't winning?
- 2Real


With revenue sharing, money isn't all it's cracked up to be. The Flyers cut checks to the NHL that help pay Shea Weber's salary. So really, how is it a benefit for the Flyers to make the playoffs and the Predators miss, when the Predators pick in front of the Flyers AND get revenue sharing dollars?
2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

Aug 12 @ 5:19 PM ET
With revenue sharing, money isn't all it's cracked up to be. The Flyers cut checks to the NHL that help pay Shea Weber's salary. So really, how is it a benefit for the Flyers to make the playoffs and the Predators miss, when the Predators pick in front of the Flyers AND get revenue sharing dollars?
- AllInForFlyers

1 > 0
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Aug 12 @ 5:20 PM ET
Not really.

There are going to be shifts where you're stuck in your zone for whatever reason... having players who can weather that situation and mitigate the damage against is still important to coming out ahead in the numbers.

- Tomahawk


But that's what I mean.

Now, granted, that's one instance over the course of a game and season. But on that shift, the defense would be doing everything right, but as far as the stats are concerned, that's a net negative rating on all 5 players because they did not have puck possession and when they did get the puck, they did not create a zone entry. That's an example of my issue with the possession ratings, they only tell a small part of the story.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Aug 12 @ 5:20 PM ET
1 > 0
- 2Real


Not in golf.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Aug 12 @ 5:21 PM ET
With revenue sharing, money isn't all it's cracked up to be. The Flyers cut checks to the NHL that help pay Shea Weber's salary. So really, how is it a benefit for the Flyers to make the playoffs and the Predators miss, when the Predators pick in front of the Flyers AND get revenue sharing dollars?
- AllInForFlyers


So, if Shea Weber lays a hit on Claude Giroux, does Giroux get to scream at him, "I PAY YOUR SALARY!"
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Aug 12 @ 5:23 PM ET
My money is on Mrazek out of Detroit... Gibson and Vasilevskiy have higher upside, but Mrazek has that certain je ne sais quoi.
- Tomahawk

I wonder if Stolarz even came close to the top 10 goalie prospects. I'm trying to think of who else would fill out the top 10 but I actually don't know many goalie prospects. I would think most of the top 10 would be filled out by some combination of
Vasilevskiy
Gibson
Fucale
Subban
Mrazek
Demko
Pickard
Campbell
Allen?
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Aug 12 @ 5:24 PM ET
So, if Shea Weber lays a hit on Claude Giroux, does Giroux get to scream at him, "I PAY YOUR SALARY!"
- jmatchett383


The system simply has some.flaws, as any system does when it is weighted toward someone.

One team, one ping pong ball is fair. It isn't going to happen, but the system now is unfair.
2Real
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: IT'S GRITTIN TIME, CA
Joined: 07.14.2007

Aug 12 @ 5:25 PM ET
Not in golf.
- jmatchett383

that's why this is the national hockey league
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Aug 12 @ 5:26 PM ET
that's why this is the national hockey league
- 2Real


Okay.

Not in goals against.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Aug 12 @ 5:26 PM ET
On the other hand, those same tools validate the value of guys like Couturier, Raffl, and Read. Not sure those guys would have the same standing w/ the general fan base without things like quality of competition and zone usage entering the popular consciousness.
- Tomahawk



Anybody who knows what they're looking at doesn't need any fancy stats to validate player like Read, Couturier, and to a lesser extend Raffl.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Aug 12 @ 5:26 PM ET
I can simply just watch the game like an old school hockey fan and see what Couturier, Read and Raffl bring to the team.
- GOA88



Tomahawk
Ottawa Senators
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Aug 12 @ 5:26 PM ET
But that's what I mean.

Now, granted, that's one instance over the course of a game and season. But on that shift, the defense would be doing everything right, but as far as the stats are concerned, that's a net negative rating on all 5 players because they did not have puck possession and when they did get the puck, they did not create a zone entry. That's an example of my issue with the possession ratings, they only tell a small part of the story.

- jmatchett383


If you're hemmed in your own zone, chances are something didn't go right somewhere along the way (unless the other team is just that good on that shift)... whether you lost a FO, or failed to deny entry, or failed the initial clear, something caused you to have to play catch-up.

Even if all 5 guys are 100% perfect, and you give up a couple of attempts against, you should be good enough to turn the tables on a shift later in the game. If you're doing all the right things consistently, it should even out, or even tip in your favor by the end of the game/week/season.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Aug 12 @ 5:26 PM ET
The system simply has some.flaws, as any system does when it is weighted toward someone.

One team, one ping pong ball is fair. It isn't going to happen, but the system now is unfair.

- AllInForFlyers


(frank)ing communists. IMPEACH BETTMAN!!!
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Aug 12 @ 5:28 PM ET
If you're hemmed in your own zone, chances are something didn't go right somewhere along the way (unless the other team is just that good on that shift)... whether you lost a FO, or failed to deny entry, or failed the initial clear, something caused you to have to play catch-up.

Even if all 5 guys are 100% perfect, and you give up a couple of attempts against, you should be good enough to turn the tables on a shift later in the game. If you're doing all the right things consistently, it should even out, or even tip in your favor by the end of the game/week/season.

- Tomahawk


You keep sidestepping the question. Does playing picture-perfect defense, as I described, count as a net negative for that entire shift?
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