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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: Christmas In August
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nickmo2699
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 01.06.2012

Aug 6 @ 11:43 AM ET
Boy, when I look at salary cap math, is Hammer a bargain at $4.1 for the next 5 years! If you want proof, think about finding a replacement for Hammer at $4.1m versus finding a replacement for Bicks at $4.0m. Who'd ya rather???
- Cmonalready


Hammer is our best stay at home D-man, and a player you need on your team to be succesful. If not for Seabrook, Hammer would be top pairing. If on another team, he is definitly a top pairing guy.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Aug 6 @ 11:54 AM ET
Keith & Hossa - cap hits look good now, but Hawks will have to deal with the recapture cap hits when they decide they don't want to play for $1 - $2 MM per year.
- StLBravesFan



If we win another Cup or two I really won't care, it will be a sacrifice worth making.

I understand the concern that these guys won't want to play near the tail end of their contracts. But both Keith and Hossa are quality guys and I don't see them backing out of their deals, especially Keith. DK has a chance to spend his entire career with one team and enjoy both tremendous personal and team success. I can't see him wanting to give that up.
golfbard
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: NY
Joined: 06.22.2007

Aug 6 @ 12:00 PM ET
Hammer is our best stay at home D-man, and a player you need on your team to be succesful. If not for Seabrook, Hammer would be top pairing. If on another team, he is definitly a top pairing guy.
- nickmo2699


One thing to also consider that if the Hawks develop guys like Dahlbeck and others and they are capable of becoming top four D-men, you could see a scenario where Seabrook gets traded.
BGKarras
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Itasca, IL
Joined: 06.19.2012

Aug 6 @ 12:03 PM ET
moving the usual suspects or all of them leaves a much easier hole to fill than losing half of your top shutdown pair or a consistent 30 goal scorer.

Losing the likes of Leddy, Versteeg or Rozsival may actually make this team better.

- Elbows15


Hey Bow's
Totally agree with what you are saying!! Leddy & Versteeg are both brain dead and Rozi looks like father time caught up to him cuz he has gotten really slow.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Aug 6 @ 12:04 PM ET
My .02 on who you trade and why:

Sharp

WHY; Brings a nice return, maximum cap relief, dealing from (winger depth)
WHY NOT: Proven scorer, plays in multiple situations, can play some C

Oduya

WHY: Decent cap relief, decent return, probably unaffordable on next deal
WHY NOT: Critical part of defensive depth and style of play

Leddy

WHY: Good return, probably more than a few GMs chump up for his promise
WHY NOT: Upside, lack of PP point depth



IMO, the most valuable guy, right now, to the Hawks is Oduya. He might also be most in demand on the trade market due to his salary and the fact that a LOT of teams are trying to emulate the Hawks' transition game now, which starts with the defensemen.

That said, some teams will want Leddy because of his lower salary, unrealized upside and experience in Chicago's system.

If you deal Oduya, it forces Leddy into the Top 4. Is he ready? Good question. Think about it, he was there in 2011-12, before being replaced by Oduya. The team got a LOT better AFTER Oduya settled in. But Leddy's gotten better as well. And I think will get better still. Tough question.

Sharp?

Some used to say, erroneously, Saad would replace Hossa. I think Saad replaces Sharp. The Hawks are fairly loaded at W, including Teravainen, who could play there for a while.

But it all is greatly dependent on the return.
BGKarras
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Itasca, IL
Joined: 06.19.2012

Aug 6 @ 12:09 PM ET
My .02 on who you trade and why:

Sharp

WHY; Brings a nice return, maximum cap relief, dealing from (winger depth)
WHY NOT: Proven scorer, plays in multiple situations, can play some C

Oduya

WHY: Decent cap relief, decent return, probably unaffordable on next deal
WHY NOT: Critical part of defensive depth and style of play

Leddy

WHY: Good return, probably more than a few GMs chump up for his promise
WHY NOT: Upside, lack of PP point depth



IMO, the most valuable guy, right now, to the Hawks is Oduya. He might also be most in demand on the trade market due to his salary and the fact that a LOT of teams are trying to emulate the Hawks' transition game now, which starts with the defensemen.

That said, some teams will want Leddy because of his lower salary, unrealized upside and experience in Chicago's system.

If you deal Oduya, it forces Leddy into the Top 4. Is he ready? Good question. Think about it, he was there in 2011-12, before being replaced by Oduya. The team got a LOT better AFTER Oduya settled in. But Leddy's gotten better as well. And I think will get better still. Tough question.

Sharp?

Some used to say, erroneously, Saad would replace Hossa. I think Saad replaces Sharp. The Hawks are fairly loaded at W, including Teravainen, who could play there for a while.

But it all is greatly dependent on the return.

- John Jaeckel


JJ,
Hmm Decisions,Decisions you are so right about this.
carcus
St Louis Blues
Location: #Winnington
Joined: 02.12.2009

Aug 6 @ 12:15 PM ET
My .02 on who you trade and why:

Sharp

WHY; Brings a nice return, maximum cap relief, dealing from (winger depth)
WHY NOT: Proven scorer, plays in multiple situations, can play some C

Oduya

WHY: Decent cap relief, decent return, probably unaffordable on next deal
WHY NOT: Critical part of defensive depth and style of play

Leddy

WHY: Good return, probably more than a few GMs chump up for his promise
WHY NOT: Upside, lack of PP point depth



IMO, the most valuable guy, right now, to the Hawks is Oduya. He might also be most in demand on the trade market due to his salary and the fact that a LOT of teams are trying to emulate the Hawks' transition game now, which starts with the defensemen.

That said, some teams will want Leddy because of his lower salary, unrealized upside and experience in Chicago's system.

If you deal Oduya, it forces Leddy into the Top 4. Is he ready? Good question. Think about it, he was there in 2011-12, before being replaced by Oduya. The team got a LOT better AFTER Oduya settled in. But Leddy's gotten better as well. And I think will get better still. Tough question.

Sharp?

Some used to say, erroneously, Saad would replace Hossa. I think Saad replaces Sharp. The Hawks are fairly loaded at W, including Teravainen, who could play there for a while.

But it all is greatly dependent on the return.

- John Jaeckel

Sharp. You have plenty of offense, with guys like Saad stepping up to fill that void.

Losing a key defender would be a bigger blow.
blackhawk24
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Lake in the Hills, IL
Joined: 06.06.2009

Aug 6 @ 12:17 PM ET
Keith & Hossa - cap hits look good now, but Hawks will have to deal with the recapture cap hits when they decide they don't want to play for $1 - $2 MM per year.
- StLBravesFan

Someone from at least one small market team must have pictures of Bettman naked with a goat or something like that. Cuz big market teams like the 'Hawks - teams who helped give the NHL their biggest TV deal ever - got royally screwed on this re-capture cap hits on the last CBA.

At no time during the negotiation or acceptance by the league of these contracts was there one murmur by the league about cap circumventing actions, not one.

Then this latest lockout comes about in Sept, 2012, all hell breaks loose and low and behold Bettman bends over, grabs his ankles and takes it from the small market teams.

'Hawks fans everywhere had better hope both Duncs and Hoss play into their late 30's and play well enough to be a cup contender. Otherwise, cap fluctuations could screw SB and Co big-time.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Aug 6 @ 12:17 PM ET
My .02 on who you trade and why:

Sharp

WHY; Brings a nice return, maximum cap relief, dealing from (winger depth)
WHY NOT: Proven scorer, plays in multiple situations, can play some C

Oduya

WHY: Decent cap relief, decent return, probably unaffordable on next deal
WHY NOT: Critical part of defensive depth and style of play

Leddy

WHY: Good return, probably more than a few GMs chump up for his promise
WHY NOT: Upside, lack of PP point depth



IMO, the most valuable guy, right now, to the Hawks is Oduya. He might also be most in demand on the trade market due to his salary and the fact that a LOT of teams are trying to emulate the Hawks' transition game now, which starts with the defensemen.

That said, some teams will want Leddy because of his lower salary, unrealized upside and experience in Chicago's system.

If you deal Oduya, it forces Leddy into the Top 4. Is he ready? Good question. Think about it, he was there in 2011-12, before being replaced by Oduya. The team got a LOT better AFTER Oduya settled in. But Leddy's gotten better as well. And I think will get better still. Tough question.

Sharp?

Some used to say, erroneously, Saad would replace Hossa. I think Saad replaces Sharp. The Hawks are fairly loaded at W, including Teravainen, who could play there for a while.

But it all is greatly dependent on the return.

- John Jaeckel



I think it's a combination of impact on the team, replacement within the system, and return in a trade. Whichever player yields the best value when combining these factors will go (ie. least impact, replaceable within the organization & good trade value).

As much as I hate to say it I think this points to Sharp as the odd man out. Sharp's offense could be replaced by the maturation of Saad, Shaw, Kruger and within the farm system (ie Teravainen). I think opposing GMs would pony up to get Sharp, Stan could keep the pipeline stocked with picks and/or prospects through this trade.

As JJ mentioned Chicago's transition game starts with our defense, this makes guys like Oduya and Leddy more difficult to replace.

Edit: If Sharp is the one to move I wouldn't trade him until the summer of 2015.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Aug 6 @ 12:18 PM ET
My .02 on who you trade and why:

Sharp

WHY; Brings a nice return, maximum cap relief, dealing from (winger depth)
WHY NOT: Proven scorer, plays in multiple situations, can play some C

Oduya

WHY: Decent cap relief, decent return, probably unaffordable on next deal
WHY NOT: Critical part of defensive depth and style of play

Leddy

WHY: Good return, probably more than a few GMs chump up for his promise
WHY NOT: Upside, lack of PP point depth



IMO, the most valuable guy, right now, to the Hawks is Oduya. He might also be most in demand on the trade market due to his salary and the fact that a LOT of teams are trying to emulate the Hawks' transition game now, which starts with the defensemen.

That said, some teams will want Leddy because of his lower salary, unrealized upside and experience in Chicago's system.

If you deal Oduya, it forces Leddy into the Top 4. Is he ready? Good question. Think about it, he was there in 2011-12, before being replaced by Oduya. The team got a LOT better AFTER Oduya settled in. But Leddy's gotten better as well. And I think will get better still. Tough question.

Sharp?

Some used to say, erroneously, Saad would replace Hossa. I think Saad replaces Sharp. The Hawks are fairly loaded at W, including Teravainen, who could play there for a while.

But it all is greatly dependent on the return.

- John Jaeckel


Add in:

Bickell:

Why - frustratingly inconsistent, only one real good stretch in his career

Why not - only combination of size and hitting ability left on the roster


Versteeg / Roszival:

Why - disappointing last year, age catching up?

Why not - will anyone want them, and, if so, for what kind of return?

As I said earlier, any move creates holes - which move creates the most fillable holes.

golfbard
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: NY
Joined: 06.22.2007

Aug 6 @ 12:21 PM ET
I think it's a combination of impact on the team, replacement within the system, and return in a trade. Whichever player yields the best value when combining these factors will go (ie. least impact, replaceable within the organization & good trade value).

As much as I hate to say it I think this points to Sharp as the odd man out. Sharp's offense could be replaced by the maturation of Saad, Shaw, Kruger and within the farm system (ie Teravainen). I think opposing GMs would pony up to get Sharp, Stan could keep the pipeline stocked with picks and/or prospects through this trade.

As JJ mentioned Chicago's transition game starts with our defense, this makes guys like Oduya and Leddy more difficult to replace.

- DarthKane


You also add in a guy like Morin who can provide some goal scoring and goes to the note. The key is him playing a 200 foot game and thus keeping him in the lineup. Also bounceback seasons from Bicks and Versteeg plus Richards should score more goals and in theory set up more than Zus.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Aug 6 @ 12:24 PM ET
You also add in a guy like Morin who can provide some goal scoring and goes to the note. The key is him playing a 200 foot game and thus keeping him in the lineup. Also bounceback seasons from Bicks and Versteeg plus Richards should score more goals and in theory set up more than Zus.
- golfbard



Very true, and Smith could help too. The team doesn't have to replace Sharp one-for-one. A guy like Saad could replace most of what Sharp provides but any shortfall could be made up from other guys maturing and naturally producing more.
ikeane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Jacksonville, FL
Joined: 11.04.2005

Aug 6 @ 12:34 PM ET
Add in:

Bickell:

Why - frustratingly inconsistent, only one real good stretch in his career


Why not - only combination of size and hitting ability left on the roster


Versteeg / Roszival:

Why - disappointing last year, age catching up?

Why not - will anyone want them, and, if so, for what kind of return?

As I said earlier, any move creates holes - which move creates the most fillable holes.

- StLBravesFan


Leading up to the 2013 playoffs, people were consistently calling out Bickell for being lazy, a floater, a one trick pony with his wrist shot. If he left I don't think anyone would have been heartbroken. However, he ties game 6, has a monster playoffs to get a huge contract and now seems to have resorted back to the flaoting Bickell. He does have the tools to bring a physical game, yet still doesnt consistently. For $4 mil a year he should bring it every night. If not, trade him for a Kyle Clifford, Matt Martin type who will at a much cheaper price tag. Anyone can be a flash in the pan, Jeff Shantz once scored a beautiful coast to coast goal, but was never a huge scorer. Dmitri Nabokov had 4 goals in his first 7 games. Where is he now? And so on, and so forth....
tomcat24
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Gomer's Pyle, IL
Joined: 06.04.2012

Aug 6 @ 12:39 PM ET
Very true, and Smith could help too. The team doesn't have to replace Sharp one-for-one. A guy like Saad could replace most of what Sharp provides but any shortfall could be made up from other guys maturing and naturally producing more.
- DarthKane

I agree. I dont see any getting his # of ppoints, but as a whole I think this team might score more. Hopefully give up less, too
powerenforcer
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Wheeling, IL
Joined: 09.24.2009

Aug 6 @ 12:41 PM ET
Someone from at least one small market team must have pictures of Bettman naked with a goat or something like that. Cuz big market teams like the 'Hawks - teams who helped give the NHL their biggest TV deal ever - got royally screwed on this re-capture cap hits on the last CBA.

At no time during the negotiation or acceptance by the league of these contracts was there one murmur by the league about cap circumventing actions, not one.

Then this latest lockout comes about in Sept, 2012, all hell breaks loose and low and behold Bettman bends over, grabs his ankles and takes it from the small market teams.

'Hawks fans everywhere had better hope both Duncs and Hoss play into their late 30's and play well enough to be a cup contender. Otherwise, cap fluctuations could screw SB and Co big-time.

- blackhawk24


Can't wait for the day Bettman retires to David Stern's place, and they can live happily ever after. Both are scum!
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Aug 6 @ 12:45 PM ET
Can't wait for the day Bettman retires to David Stern's place, and they can live happily ever after. Both are scum!
- powerenforcer


Yes - then they can pursue their true life's work - taking over the World thru the Tri-Lateral Commission.

Cup-Bearer
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 03.14.2014

Aug 6 @ 1:09 PM ET
One thing to also consider that if the Hawks develop guys like Dahlbeck and others and they are capable of becoming top four D-men, you could see a scenario where Seabrook gets traded.
- golfbard


In todays NHL we will all need to get used to turnover. Whether you have a great team like the Hawks or one like the Jets. The cap dictates change WILL happen. I know the game is won by the players on the ice with good calls on the bench but the real strength of any team is the work and decisions made behind closed doors and the system in place for finding and developing prospects.

So we will lose some talented players on both sides of the ice. So the new comers MUST be capable of filling those spots. Free agents should only be insurance policies for the failures in the system.
golfbard
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: NY
Joined: 06.22.2007

Aug 6 @ 1:13 PM ET
In todays NHL we will all need to get used to turnover. Whether you have a great team like the Hawks or one like the Jets. The cap dictates change WILL happen. I know the game is won by the players on the ice with good calls on the bench but the real strength of any team is the work and decisions made behind closed doors and the system in place for finding and developing prospects.

So we will lose some talented players on both sides of the ice. So the new comers MUST be capable of filling those spots. Free agents should only be insurance policies for the failures in the system.

- Cup-Bearer


No question that's why drafting and developing cheap talent is important.
SimpleJack
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago , IL
Joined: 05.23.2013

Aug 6 @ 1:36 PM ET
Sharp. You have plenty of offense, with guys like Saad stepping up to fill that void.

Losing a key defender would be a bigger blow.

- carcus




Saad steps in to fill the void huh? So Saad is gonna play LW for the 1st line AND the 2nd line? WRONG. I keep seeing this thrown around, that "Saad replaces Sharp". Makes no sense. We need TWO capable elite top 6 LW's. Not 1 and then a question mark in Bickell. How come so many seem iffy about having Leddy hypothetically replace Oduya(or keeping Oduya and using someone like Rundblad to replace Leddy) and at the same time think Bickell is a permanent top 6 winger? Sharp would NOT be easy to replace, someone like Rozy or Leddy would be much easier.
carcus
St Louis Blues
Location: #Winnington
Joined: 02.12.2009

Aug 6 @ 2:05 PM ET


Saad steps in to fill the void huh? So Saad is gonna play LW for the 1st line AND the 2nd line? WRONG. I keep seeing this thrown around, that "Saad replaces Sharp". Makes no sense. We need TWO capable elite top 6 LW's. Not 1 and then a question mark in Bickell. How come so many seem iffy about having Leddy hypothetically replace Oduya(or keeping Oduya and using someone like Rundblad to replace Leddy) and at the same time think Bickell is a permanent top 6 winger? Sharp would NOT be easy to replace, someone like Rozy or Leddy would be much easier.

- SimpleJack

I wasn't meaning that Saad plays both lines, I would think that is obvious.

Saad is getting better, and should continue to get better and put up better numbers if he is playing on the 1st line. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he put up numbers very close to what Sharp is putting up playing there. If that is the case, you would essentially have the lost offense of the difference between what Saad had last year and what the guy who fills in his 2LW spot put up. It wouldn't be as big of a hit as most would think if Saad continues to improve.

It is not as easy as just replacing Leddy or Rozy. That wouldn't be enough to get under the cap. There salaries are right around what you are over the cap now, but you have to replace them with players, which would put you back over the cap. Even if you bring in a league minimum replacement, you have to clear at least $3M in cap space in order to get under the cap. (unless they decide to go with a 22 man roster instead of a 23 man roster)
Cup-Bearer
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 03.14.2014

Aug 6 @ 2:17 PM ET
No question that's why drafting and developing cheap talent is important.
- golfbard


If I look at the Hawks thru my eyes at half my age, I used to think of hockey as a game played by my favorite players for Chicago not a business played and run by businessmen for money. Today you hear about analyics, derivitives, statistics and have consultants crunching numbers to evaluate players and ultimately put an advisory for talent and a team which should on paper win. Still alot of if's and's but's. Joe average still views a players worth as how hard he hit/destroyed the opposition, a nice play to convert a goal , a great play to defend against a goal, maybe an air of confidence, or the opposite.

IMO, organizations are starting to put together a team based on a number and maybe less than gut instinct. As you point out, the only control/input the team has is how they grow what they are given. The minors then are as important as the finished product. Can the system produce 2 or 3 candidates every year?


carcus
St Louis Blues
Location: #Winnington
Joined: 02.12.2009

Aug 6 @ 2:23 PM ET
You also have to take into consideration the long term cap issues. Next year Saad is going to be due a raise. Probably a pretty good one. Trading a guy with just this year left on his deal like Rosy or Leddy does nothing for the long term cap issues.

Almost $65M committed to 15 players next year. The cap will go up, but how much? Even if it goes up $5M from what it is this year, that would leave only around $8M in space to sign 8 players (including Saad & and any other Hawk with deals ending after this year)

The Hawks likely need to trade at least one guy with a longer deal in order to get their cap situation in order for the next few years. All of these guys that fit that description have NTC/NMC's, so that might make it harder as well.
kwolf68
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Mt. Lebanon, PA
Joined: 12.18.2010

Aug 6 @ 2:31 PM ET


Saad steps in to fill the void huh? So Saad is gonna play LW for the 1st line AND the 2nd line? WRONG. I keep seeing this thrown around, that "Saad replaces Sharp". Makes no sense. We need TWO capable elite top 6 LW's. Not 1 and then a question mark in Bickell. How come so many seem iffy about having Leddy hypothetically replace Oduya(or keeping Oduya and using someone like Rundblad to replace Leddy) and at the same time think Bickell is a permanent top 6 winger? Sharp would NOT be easy to replace, someone like Rozy or Leddy would be much easier.

- SimpleJack


Sharp was already replaced...when they moved him to L3-wing in the Cup finals and the Hawks nearly rallied from 3-1 down. Sharp is not Gretzky here, unless he plays with Kane again he'll never sniff his point total from last year again...if the Hawks can get resources and the needed cap relief move him. He's gone next year anyway.

That said, I think the Hawks can keep Sharp this year and trade off other pieces for immediate cap relief and would have no issue if they did that.
carcus
St Louis Blues
Location: #Winnington
Joined: 02.12.2009

Aug 6 @ 2:37 PM ET
Sharp was already replaced...when they moved him to L3-wing in the Cup finals and the Hawks nearly rallied from 3-1 down. Sharp is not Gretzky here, unless he plays with Kane again he'll never sniff his point total from last year again...if the Hawks can get resources and the needed cap relief move him. He's gone next year anyway.

That said, I think the Hawks can keep Sharp this year and trade off other pieces for immediate cap relief and would have no issue if they did that.

- kwolf68


If they do that, they will be in the exact same spot next year. Do you want to pull the band-aid off quickly? Or slowly over a couple of years?

Sharp makes the most sense for me if I were the GM in this situation.
SimpleJack
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago , IL
Joined: 05.23.2013

Aug 6 @ 2:46 PM ET
I wasn't meaning that Saad plays both lines, I would think that is obvious.

Saad is getting better, and should continue to get better and put up better numbers if he is playing on the 1st line. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he put up numbers very close to what Sharp is putting up playing there. If that is the case, you would essentially have the lost offense of the difference between what Saad had last year and what the guy who fills in his 2LW spot put up. It wouldn't be as big of a hit as most would think if Saad continues to improve.

It is not as easy as just replacing Leddy or Rozy. That wouldn't be enough to get under the cap. There salaries are right around what you are over the cap now, but you have to replace them with players, which would put you back over the cap. Even if you bring in a league minimum replacement, you have to clear at least $3M in cap space in order to get under the cap. (unless they decide to go with a 22 man roster instead of a 23 man roster)

- carcus


Not arguing Saad will be even better and will put up points, but who's that other top 6 LW gonna be(assuming Bickell) and how is that not gonna also cause a chain reaction that will weaken the bottom 6 forward depth? So, knowing that most of these players(Sharp, Oduya, Leddy) will be gone next summer anyways, with a chance to load up with the best possible players for a Cup run, id much rather explore all options on moving Rozy or Versteeg(preferably both), then if not try Leddy while also sending someone(TT or Regin) down to rockford, and resign Brookbank. Anything other than trading Sharp a year too early when its not needed.
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