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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: Christmas In August
Author Message
SimpleJack
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago , IL
Joined: 05.23.2013

Aug 5 @ 10:38 PM ET
What some people are looking at:

Before January 1 (42 games): 22 goals, +18
After January 1 (40 games): 12 goals, -5
Play-offs (19 games): 5 goals, -2

He was not very productive for the last 59 out of 101 games.

- StLBravesFan


He had a bad stretch for god sakes....so that means he's on a career downward spiral now and those numbers will just keep trending negatively? Really? Sharp has always been streaky with his goal scoring, and when u consider the possible injuries and/or other distractions, is it really that crazy to suggest that he might go back to the 22 goals in 42 games type of guy? Id say there's a fantastic chance he finds his scoring touch again if healthy playing with Toews and Hossa. Its ludicrous to think that those number breakdowns you cited should justify trading him. What are Bickell's(the player who seemingly everyone that wants Sharp traded now assumes will plug in the top 6) stats last year? 4 assists in 59 games?
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Aug 5 @ 10:41 PM ET
If you're looking at it purely economically, then you can't just look at Sharp's trade value now vs. the future. You have to assess whether 1 season of Sharp plus 2015 trade return or 2 seasons of Sharp plus 2016 return or 3 seasons of Sharp and no return at all has more intrinsic value than trading Sharp now.

So basically you have four options. The problem is they all hinge on one giant variable: how good will Patrick Sharp be over the next 3 seasons and how valuable is he? The only difference between cap and pre-cap is that your cap relief factors into a "return" for Sharp.

I realize I'm not explaining this the best, but what I'm trying to say is, if you keep him and he plays well, he probably justifies the cap hit. If you keep him and he plays poorly, you can always trade him away for nothing, and you still end up with $6M in cap space for players already on your roster or in your system. In my world, especially given what contracts are going for these days, the potential of Patrick Sharp continuing to be the All-Star forward he has previously been and his familiarity with systems and personnel outweigh whatever players you could replace him with in trade or using said cap relief.

- Sandus


The only way to look at it is:

The Hawks have to go for it this year - after that, they probably are going to be treading water for a year or two until the cap catches up with them (or vice-versa).

So: what action makes the Hawks a better team this year - keeping Sharp and moving someone else (Oduya, Leddy, Bickell, Versteeg, Roszival, other)? Or Moving Sharp for some return and keeping the rest?

They need to worry about 2015-16 next summer, and go for it all this year.
SimpleJack
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago , IL
Joined: 05.23.2013

Aug 5 @ 10:44 PM ET
The only way to look at it is:

The Hawks have to go for it this year - after that, they probably are going to be treading water for a year or two until the cap catches up with them (or vice-versa).

So: what action makes the Hawks a better team this year - keeping Sharp and moving someone else (Oduya, Leddy, Bickell, Versteeg, Roszival, other)? Or Moving Sharp for some return and keeping the rest?

They need to worry about 2015-16 next summer, and go for it all this year.

- StLBravesFan


Bingo!
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Aug 5 @ 10:45 PM ET
He had a bad stretch for god sakes....so that means he's on a career downward spiral now and those numbers will just keep trending negatively? Really? Sharp has always been streaky with his goal scoring, and when u consider the possible injuries and/or other distractions, is it really that crazy to suggest that he might go back to the 22 goals in 42 games type of guy? Id say there's a fantastic chance he finds his scoring touch again if healthy playing with Toews and Hossa. Its ludicrous to think that those number breakdowns you cited should justify trading him. What are Bickell's(the player who seemingly everyone that wants Sharp traded now assumes will plug in the top 6) stats last year? 4 assists in 82 games?
- SimpleJack


May not be the right move - I happen to think they're probably better off moving someone else - but it isn't ludicrous.

Moving any of the "usual suspects" creates problems - creates holes that need to be filled - whose hole is easiest to fill, whose skills will be most missed (and it may not be the best player among them).
SimpleJack
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago , IL
Joined: 05.23.2013

Aug 5 @ 11:05 PM ET
May not be the right move - I happen to think they're probably better off moving someone else - but it isn't ludicrous.

Moving any of the "usual suspects" creates problems - creates holes that need to be filled - whose hole is easiest to fill, whose skills will be most missed (and it may not be the best player among them).

- StLBravesFan


Easier to fill a bottom pairing Dman than ur top line LW.
Topshelf2010
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 09.29.2011

Aug 5 @ 11:20 PM ET
The only way to look at it is:

The Hawks have to go for it this year - after that, they probably are going to be treading water for a year or two until the cap catches up with them (or vice-versa).

So: what action makes the Hawks a better team this year - keeping Sharp and moving someone else (Oduya, Leddy, Bickell, Versteeg, Roszival, other)? Or Moving Sharp for some return and keeping the rest?

They need to worry about 2015-16 next summer, and go for it all this year.

- StLBravesFan

This year? Leddy is a liability in the playoffs. He can't be used on defensive side, but the pp could help him stick around. For this year, Sharp stays.

btw - Richards was a no show against the Kings in the finals - bad match-ups? So do we really see him helping the Hawks get past the Kings if we meet them during the playoffs this year.

I was also surprised with Bickel not really being a force in the Kings series - that has me worried.

Versteeg will underperform - i would not count on him.

The keys will be: if Rozy can revert back to 2013 form or a rookie steps up.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Aug 5 @ 11:21 PM ET
May not be the right move - I happen to think they're probably better off moving someone else - but it isn't ludicrous.

Moving any of the "usual suspects" creates problems - creates holes that need to be filled - whose hole is easiest to fill, whose skills will be most missed (and it may not be the best player among them).

- StLBravesFan

moving the usual suspects or all of them leaves a much easier hole to fill than losing half of your top shutdown pair or a consistent 30 goal scorer.

Losing the likes of Leddy, Versteeg or Rozsival may actually make this team better.

scottak
Location: I am serious. And don't call me Shirley!
Joined: 08.06.2010

Aug 5 @ 11:43 PM ET
What some people are looking at:

Before January 1 (42 games): 22 goals, +18
After January 1 (40 games): 12 goals, -5
Play-offs (19 games): 5 goals, -2

He was not very productive for the last 59 out of 101 games.

- StLBravesFan

He played hard and effectively in order to make the Canadian Olympic Team, then regressed the remainder of the season and playoffs.
fvineze
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 08.10.2011

Aug 5 @ 11:50 PM ET
If you're looking at it purely economically, then you can't just look at Sharp's trade value now vs. the future. You have to assess whether 1 season of Sharp plus 2015 trade return or 2 seasons of Sharp plus 2016 return or 3 seasons of Sharp and no return at all has more intrinsic value than trading Sharp now.

So basically you have four options. The problem is they all hinge on one giant variable: how good will Patrick Sharp be over the next 3 seasons and how valuable is he? The only difference between cap and pre-cap is that your cap relief factors into a "return" for Sharp.

I realize I'm not explaining this the best, but what I'm trying to say is, if you keep him and he plays well, he probably justifies the cap hit. If you keep him and he plays poorly, you can always trade him away for nothing, and you still end up with $6M in cap space for players already on your roster or in your system. In my world, especially given what contracts are going for these days, the potential of Patrick Sharp continuing to be the All-Star forward he has previously been and his familiarity with systems and personnel outweigh whatever players you could replace him with in trade or using said cap relief.

- Sandus


Sharp had nearly a point/game year with little production after mid Feb. If this coming year he us just as good there is no reason for him to not remain. To trade him now would severely impact any SC run this year.
stljam
St Louis Blues
Location: St. Louis, MO
Joined: 02.02.2007

Aug 5 @ 11:55 PM ET
JJ - sorry for the delay...work got super crazy

http://my.hockeybuzz.com/...st_id=16381&user_id=17431
fvineze
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 08.10.2011

Aug 5 @ 11:57 PM ET
He had a bad stretch for god sakes....so that means he's on a career downward spiral now and those numbers will just keep trending negatively? Really? Sharp has always been streaky with his goal scoring, and when u consider the possible injuries and/or other distractions, is it really that crazy to suggest that he might go back to the 22 goals in 42 games type of guy? Id say there's a fantastic chance he finds his scoring touch again if healthy playing with Toews and Hossa. Its ludicrous to think that those number breakdowns you cited should justify trading him. What are Bickell's(the player who seemingly everyone that wants Sharp traded now assumes will plug in the top 6) stats last year? 4 assists in 59 games?
- SimpleJack


Bickel costs $4m\year and produces very little all year. He's a big guy that doesn't play very big very often. Rather have someone show up every game and give them the physical game that is so desperately needed. Versteegt, bad knee or no, demonstrated all last year he had little to no vision for the ice and even less
inclination to get his hands dirty. He too needs to go.

between the two that's over $6m savings and you haven't lost anyone that contributes, plus you have cash for a Midseason acquisition for the SC run and you bring along a couple key rookies.

next summer lose Rozy and CC, save another $8m+ bring on a quality grinder and backfill with a prospect or two. Were ready for a 15-16 run with capspace and options.

keep cycling out the bad contracts and underperformed, which BTW SB has crested his share..





SimpleJack
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago , IL
Joined: 05.23.2013

Aug 6 @ 12:23 AM ET
Bickel costs $4m\year and produces very little all year. He's a big guy that doesn't play very big very often. Rather have someone show up every game and give them the physical game that is so desperately needed. Versteegt, bad knee or no, demonstrated all last year he had little to no vision for the ice and even less
inclination to get his hands dirty. He too needs to go.

between the two that's over $6m savings and you haven't lost anyone that contributes, plus you have cash for a Midseason acquisition for the SC run and you bring along a couple key rookies.

next summer lose Rozy and CC, save another $8m+ bring on a quality grinder and backfill with a prospect or two. Were ready for a 15-16 run with capspace and options.

keep cycling out the bad contracts and underperformed, which BTW SB has crested his share..

- fvineze


Same concept with moving Sharp....you're doing TOO much. Bickell might not be anything special, but if we dont need to move him now why would we? Make it happen with Rozy, Steeger, or if not Leddy or Oduya. 4 guys in line before youd be forced to move anyone else.
MjulQvist
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 04.22.2012

Aug 6 @ 2:58 AM ET
Poor Archie? He didn't show up half the time. Really good players show stand out, especially on a mediocre team. I don't doubt talent being there. We saw flashes of that on occasion. I simply remember coming home from many games not remembering when I saw #26 trying to make plays.
- blackhawk24


This is something I believe TT will get the critique too. He sure looks lot of times that he lacks desire or doesn´t show up all the time. But it his style what makes it look like that. He won´t be battling hard in corners or finish checks in daily basis. It´s not his game. When he is ready to be regular in NHL he should be put in line up with players that makes his game easier to play. Or maybe Hawks should hire Mike Keenan to scare the s**t out of him and translate TT to J.R 2.0?
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Aug 6 @ 7:17 AM ET
If the Isles have already told Bailey he isn't in their plans why would the Blackhawks think he is some gem worthy of Sharp?


Come on, at least get us a player!


Everybody see this?

The IceHogs sign Blackhawks 2010 second-round pick defenseman Justin Holl, after his four years at Minnesota.

- wiz1901

I'm shocked, a college guy played 4 years, looked at the club that drafted him, saw that he was behind roughly 5 guys of making the big club, and he still signed and will go to Rockford and prove himself

Shocking, just shocking, who could imagine such a scenario.

I know some aren't impressed with our farm system, but Rockford is turning into an interesting watch with some interesting prospects.
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Aug 6 @ 7:19 AM ET
The only way to look at it is:

The Hawks have to go for it this year - after that, they probably are going to be treading water for a year or two until the cap catches up with them (or vice-versa).

So: what action makes the Hawks a better team this year - keeping Sharp and moving someone else (Oduya, Leddy, Bickell, Versteeg, Roszival, other)? Or Moving Sharp for some return and keeping the rest?

They need to worry about 2015-16 next summer, and go for it all this year.

- StLBravesFan


Unless some of the kids can play.
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Aug 6 @ 7:21 AM ET
This year? Leddy is a liability in the playoffs. He can't be used on defensive side, but the pp could help him stick around. For this year, Sharp stays.

btw - Richards was a no show against the Kings in the finals - bad match-ups? So do we really see him helping the Hawks get past the Kings if we meet them during the playoffs this year.

I was also surprised with Bickel not really being a force in the Kings series - that has me worried.

Versteeg will underperform - i would not count on him.

The keys will be: if Rozy can revert back to 2013 form or a rookie steps up.

- Topshelf2010


My counterpoint would be that Kane, Saad with Shaw were dominant last couple games against those same Kings, think Shaw is that much better than Richards? Or could it be the linemates Richards was with? I'm not sure, I'm just asking
blackhawk24
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Lake in the Hills, IL
Joined: 06.06.2009

Aug 6 @ 7:43 AM ET
This is something I believe TT will get the critique too. He sure looks lot of times that he lacks desire or doesn´t show up all the time. But it his style what makes it look like that. He won´t be battling hard in corners or finish checks in daily basis. It´s not his game. When he is ready to be regular in NHL he should be put in line up with players that makes his game easier to play. Or maybe Hawks should hire Mike Keenan to scare the s**t out of him and translate TT to J.R 2.0?
- MjulQvist

KEENAN! I used to like that guy, at least until the '92 final.
golfbard
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: NY
Joined: 06.22.2007

Aug 6 @ 9:33 AM ET
He's also 34 and been slowing down more and more. Even on that 'terrible' NY Rangers roster he ended up on the 3rd or 4th line in the playoffs.

I just have a bad feeling he wont bring very much to the Hawks this season

- BlazinMike


I worry about him from a speed perspective, not a smarts perspective. You'll recall how Brunette slowed up the top line a few years back. Not good for a transition team. Around the net he was solid once the Hawks got possession. I also worry about him as a matchup in the playoffs. He's not good defensively and small and bigger teams can maul him. The Kings ate him alive.
Cmonalready
Joined: 07.02.2012

Aug 6 @ 9:42 AM ET
The Hawks need to implement a cap strategy fix for their defense starting with 2014/15 and looking forward. That means developing one youngster this year on the 3rd pair D. They did that with Leddy over the past several years, putting him on 3rd pair and protecting him with a vet like Rozy. Given the cap constraints coming in 2015, they have to develop that next youngster THIS year. Even if they could figure out a plan to keep all of Leddy, Oduya and Rozy this year, they will not be able to keep them next year and will go into next year with a completely unproven rookie and no backup plan. I can't see them affording a 3rd pair at more than $2.5-3m next year. that's a $1.5m vet and a $1m youngster.

They need to make a decision on Leddy now. If he is a long term solution at 2nd pair, then trade Oduya or Rozy, move Leddy up, and bring in one of Clendening/Dalbach/Johns to pair with the remaining Rozy/Leddy on 3rd pair. If Leddy is not in their top 4 plans going forward, then trade him, and develop the next youngster next to Rozy.

Even if they could keep this D intact for 2014/2015, it is poor planning for 2015/16/17. So we can talk about trading Bicks/Sharp/Krugs for cap purposes. But we need to trade one of Oduya/Rozy/Leddy for player development purposes and long term multiple (future) cup winning strategy purposes.
golfbard
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: NY
Joined: 06.22.2007

Aug 6 @ 9:47 AM ET
Are the Isles good judges of talent? They sort of wrote off Niederreiter didn't they or did Nino force his way out? Not a big fan of Bailey but I would definitely look at players Garth Snow doesn't like.
- tredbrta


I think the Niederreiter thing was a fault of both parties. I think he was rushed to the league (similar to Baily) and a bit immature as he had a bit of a sense of entitlement.
golfbard
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: NY
Joined: 06.22.2007

Aug 6 @ 9:50 AM ET
He just had 20 and 31 for the Rangers. I hope we see at least 60-70 if he centers Kane and Saad.

Anyone know who he centered in NY during the RS last year?

I know he was demoted to 4th line in the finals. Hopefully he gets comfortable here and carries some confidence into the playoffs this year.

I also hope he gets a serious look at point on the PP but am not sure Q will do it. He seems uncomfortable with SHarp there - seems to want to stick with d men.

- tredbrta



First part of the year I believe he centered Callahan and Hagelin. Then St. Louis and Hagelin after the deadline deal.
Cmonalready
Joined: 07.02.2012

Aug 6 @ 10:04 AM ET
Here's the Hawks cap problems for 2015/2016.
I assume the following:
Trade Sharp.
Do not resign Oduya or Rozy
Re-sign Leddy for $3.5m, Saad for $3.5m, Kruger for $2.5m

The following are lines/groupings by $$ (not by projected line pairings)
$26.3m 1st line (Kane/Toews/Hoss)
$10.5m 2nd line (Bicks/Saad/$3m Center)
$6.7m 3rd line (Krugs/Shaw/Versteeg)
$4m 4th line (Ben Smith, Morin, 3rd player and 13th forward)

$11.3m top D pairing (Keith/Seab)
$7.6m 2nd D pair (Hammer/Leddy)
$2.5m 3rd pair ($1.5m vet plus $1m youngster)
$0.7 7th Dman

$7m goalies (Craw/Raanta)

$76.6M, AFTER omitting Sharp, Oduya, Rozy (but $3m for a #2C)
No estimates recommend the cap will be at that $76.6m level, most indicating $72-73 or as high as $75m.

Bottom line: 2 of Leddy/Oduya/Rozy will not be on the team next year. One of Sharp/Bicks will not be on the team next year. And that doesn't cut deep enough. Another $2-5m of salary cuts are needed.

Better start developing our youth at the NHL level this year to some degree in anticipation for 2015/16.
Cmonalready
Joined: 07.02.2012

Aug 6 @ 10:07 AM ET
Boy, when I look at salary cap math, is Hammer a bargain at $4.1 for the next 5 years! If you want proof, think about finding a replacement for Hammer at $4.1m versus finding a replacement for Bicks at $4.0m. Who'd ya rather???
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Aug 6 @ 11:31 AM ET
Boy, when I look at salary cap math, is Hammer a bargain at $4.1 for the next 5 years! If you want proof, think about finding a replacement for Hammer at $4.1m versus finding a replacement for Bicks at $4.0m. Who'd ya rather???
- Cmonalready



Hjalmarsson is definitely a steal, if you look at the cap comparables the isn't much around the same range (with the exception of Shattenkirk maybe). Stan's done well to lock up some good talent for long term. Keith at $5.5 million will end up being one of the best contracts in the league. Hossa at $5.275 million is a good value too. Deals like Keith and Hossa can't happen under the new CBA, but I wonder what the contracts for Saad and Kruger will be like next summer (and Leddy or Oduya if one of them stays).
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Aug 6 @ 11:43 AM ET
Hjalmarsson is definitely a steal, if you look at the cap comparables the isn't much around the same range (with the exception of Shattenkirk maybe). Stan's done well to lock up some good talent for long term. Keith at $5.5 million will end up being one of the best contracts in the league. Hossa at $5.275 million is a good value too. Deals like Keith and Hossa can't happen under the new CBA, but I wonder what the contracts for Saad and Kruger will be like next summer (and Leddy or Oduya if one of them stays).
- DarthKane


Keith & Hossa - cap hits look good now, but Hawks will have to deal with the recapture cap hits when they decide they don't want to play for $1 - $2 MM per year.
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