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Forums :: Blog World :: Dan Petriw: Time to Bail?
Author Message
Jethro09
New York Islanders
Location: NJ
Joined: 08.16.2007

Aug 4 @ 7:19 PM ET
I'm tired of hearing and reading about corsi, sabremetrics, advanced statistics and any other algorithm associated with Bailey. The inly numbers that matter are goals, assists, poinfs and plus/minus. If those numbers are good, Bailey will have had a good season. If they are bad, Bailey will have had a bad season. Results. That's what matter.
eichiefs9
New York Islanders
Location: NY
Joined: 11.03.2008

Aug 4 @ 8:46 PM ET
I'm tired of hearing and reading about corsi, sabremetrics, advanced statistics and any other algorithm associated with Bailey. The inly numbers that matter are goals, assists, poinfs and plus/minus. If those numbers are good, Bailey will have had a good season. If they are bad, Bailey will have had a bad season. Results. That's what matter.
- Jethro09

That's pretty short-sighted. You don't have to love that kind of stuff but it has its uses. And it extends far beyond Josh Bailey.
Snowblind
New York Islanders
Joined: 03.08.2014

Aug 4 @ 8:54 PM ET
There is no point in trading Bailey now. Garth can "shop him" all he wants, but the kid is signed for almost as many more years as goals scored last season and thus has zero value right now. The Isles are not up against the cap. I'd rather see him on the 4th line than dumped for nothing like Sam Gagner was.
Snowblind
New York Islanders
Joined: 03.08.2014

Aug 4 @ 8:58 PM ET
I'm tired of hearing and reading about corsi, sabremetrics, advanced statistics and any other algorithm associated with Bailey. The inly numbers that matter are goals, assists, poinfs and plus/minus. If those numbers are good, Bailey will have had a good season. If they are bad, Bailey will have had a bad season. Results. That's what matter.
- Jethro09


Seconded.

Why is it that when a player has a fluky +/- rating we can all take it with a grain of salt but when it comes to shot-based stats, suddenly people doubt their own eyes and common sense and put more stock in the numbers?
eichiefs9
New York Islanders
Location: NY
Joined: 11.03.2008

Aug 4 @ 9:10 PM ET
Seconded.

Why is it that when a player has a fluky +/- rating we can all take it with a grain of salt but when it comes to shot-based stats, suddenly people doubt their own eyes and common sense and put more stock in the numbers?

- Snowblind

Why is it that everybody who opposes thinking outside the box assumes that those who consider advanced metrics valuable are soapboxing that it's the end-all-be-all of player evaluation? It's a useful tool* in helping to form an opinion on a player.


*Useful tool: As in, a chopsaw is a useful tool in building a house, but nobody is saying you can build a house using only that.
Cptmjl
New York Islanders
Joined: 11.05.2011

Aug 4 @ 9:16 PM ET
Why is it that everybody who opposes thinking outside the box assumes that those who consider advanced metrics valuable are soapboxing that it's the end-all-be-all of player evaluation? It's a useful tool* in helping to form an opinion on a player.


*Useful tool: As in, a chopsaw is a useful tool in building a house, but nobody is saying you can build a house using only that.

- eichiefs9

I built my house only using a chopsaw.
Snowblind
New York Islanders
Joined: 03.08.2014

Aug 4 @ 9:17 PM ET
When shot-based stats tell me how good Jonathan Toews is or the Kings are, I believe them. When they tell me that Josh Bailey is good or that the Devils are better than the Penguins, then I don't, just like any other secondary statistic.

corsi and fenwick are not what bases are in baseball. They are more like QB passer ratings to my mind. They tend to overrate certain kinds of players and certain kinds of teams.
eichiefs9
New York Islanders
Location: NY
Joined: 11.03.2008

Aug 4 @ 9:24 PM ET
I built my house only using a chopsaw.
- Cptmjl

I legitimately thought that said "horse" not "house" and immediately burst out laughing.
eichiefs9
New York Islanders
Location: NY
Joined: 11.03.2008

Aug 4 @ 9:29 PM ET
When shot-based stats tell me how good Jonathan Toews is or the Kings are, I believe them. When they tell me that Josh Bailey is good or that the Devils are better than the Penguins, then I don't, just like any other secondary statistic.

corsi and fenwick are not what bases are in baseball. They are more like QB passer ratings to my mind. They tend to overrate certain kinds of players and certain kinds of teams.

- Snowblind

This is comical because you're clearly discounting things without even having the slightest idea of what they are. I'll spare you the extensive, complicated, time consuming process of "googling it" and just let you know that both Corsi and Fenwick are shot-based metrics.



And actually +/- is exponentially more comparable to QB passer ratings.
Cptmjl
New York Islanders
Joined: 11.05.2011

Aug 4 @ 9:33 PM ET
This is comical because you're clearly discounting things without even having the slightest idea of what they are. I'll spare you the extensive, complicated, time consuming process of Googling it and just let you know that both Corsi and Fenwick are shot-based metrics.



And actually +/- is exponentially more comparable to QB passer ratings.

- eichiefs9

+/- is misleading at times as we all know. If you have a knowledge of the player and the team he plays on. Along with the line and the normal pairing that's out behind them(if theyre a forward) it can be used as a reference. Funny but true.
eichiefs9
New York Islanders
Location: NY
Joined: 11.03.2008

Aug 4 @ 9:37 PM ET
+/- is misleading at times as we all know. If you have a knowledge of the player and the team he plays on. Along with the line and the normal pairing that's out behind them(if theyre a forward) it can be used as a reference. Funny but true.
- Cptmjl

Right and all of those things you just mentioned are what a lot of those advanced metrics are tracking. Quality of teammates/competition, etc...

All those advanced metrics are doing are taking the "big picture" and dissecting it down into smaller parts.

Too many people are closed-minded and afraid to admit that thinking differently might actually be somewhat valuable.
JimmyP
New York Islanders
Location: Snow has melted!
Joined: 02.12.2011

Aug 4 @ 9:45 PM ET
Right and all of those things you just mentioned are what a lot of those advanced metrics are tracking. Quality of teammates/competition, etc...

All those advanced metrics are doing are taking the "big picture" and dissecting it down into smaller parts.

Too many people are closed-minded and afraid to admit that thinking differently might actually be somewhat valuable.

- eichiefs9


Of course advanced stats can be useful, but they can be even more misleading that regular stats. Hockey isn't a static game like baseball. It's not easy to isolate aspects of the game like you can with a pitcher and batter.

Plus you are fighting an uphill battle in using advanced stats to defend Bailey.
eichiefs9
New York Islanders
Location: NY
Joined: 11.03.2008

Aug 4 @ 9:50 PM ET
Of course advanced stats can be useful, but they can be even more misleading that regular stats. Hockey isn't a static game like baseball. It's not easy to isolate aspects of the game like you can with a pitcher and batter.

Plus you are fighting an uphill battle in using advanced stats to defend Bailey.

- JimmyP

I'm not defending him, all I was saying was that he would be a useful 3rd liner. If calling a guy a decent bottom 6 forward is defending him then...I don't know.
David_Volek
New York Islanders
Location: Trotzville, NY
Joined: 05.01.2013

Aug 4 @ 10:01 PM ET
I'm not defending him, all I was saying was that he would be a useful 3rd liner. If calling a guy a decent bottom 6 forward is defending him then...I don't know.
- eichiefs9

While I agree, I still would rather Lee in the lineup over Bailey. I want Lee on the team, not in Bridgeport.
Cptmjl
New York Islanders
Joined: 11.05.2011

Aug 4 @ 10:09 PM ET
While I agree, I still would rather Lee in the lineup over Bailey. I want Lee on the team, not in Bridgeport.
- David_Volek

Trade is coming. Bet on it.
eichiefs9
New York Islanders
Location: NY
Joined: 11.03.2008

Aug 4 @ 10:13 PM ET
Trade is coming. Bet on it.
- Cptmjl

XxNYIxX
New York Islanders
Location: Clayton, NC
Joined: 02.26.2007

Aug 4 @ 11:02 PM ET
Why is it that everybody who opposes thinking outside the box assumes that those who consider advanced metrics valuable are soapboxing that it's the end-all-be-all of player evaluation? It's a useful tool* in helping to form an opinion on a player.


*Useful tool: As in, a chopsaw is a useful tool in building a house, but nobody is saying you can build a house using only that.

- eichiefs9



I think the contractor that I got to build a second level on my house is using just a chop saw.. he might have a pair of pliers too (think they are needle nose).

XxNYIxX
Horseguts
Edmonton Oilers
Joined: 03.22.2009

Aug 4 @ 11:22 PM ET
I think Edmonton would take him off your hands as long as the price isn't steep.
Vukota
New York Islanders
Joined: 06.29.2007

Aug 4 @ 11:48 PM ET
Maybe Jimbro can help you answer this question in between his rage-fits and declarations of jihad on the Islanders.
- eichiefs9

This is one of the best responses ever!
mighty13duck
New York Islanders
Location: New Building. New Owner. New coach Nassau County, NY
Joined: 01.26.2009

Aug 5 @ 12:40 AM ET
"Finally the duck has come back to Hockeybuzzzzz". And just in time to. I see war has been declared due to wrong doings by X.
Dedshark
New York Islanders
Location: Amityville, NY
Joined: 04.01.2008

Aug 5 @ 12:53 AM ET
While I agree, I still would rather Lee in the lineup over Bailey. I want Lee on the team, not in Bridgeport.
- David_Volek


I 100% agree with you, but if a trade isn't made letting go of some of the isles forwards, Lee's 2way contract is sending him down. Sucks but it minimizes us losing players to waivers.
XxNYIxX
New York Islanders
Location: Clayton, NC
Joined: 02.26.2007

Aug 5 @ 1:58 AM ET
"Finally the duck has come back to Hockeybuzzzzz". And just in time to. I see war has been declared due to wrong doings by X.
- mighty13duck



Welcome back... im innocent.. i swear!!!



XxNYIxX
Nolanders
New York Islanders
Location: Canada
Joined: 08.24.2007

Aug 5 @ 6:20 AM ET
Ill be your Huckleberry!

XxNYIxX

- XxNYIxX



great movie
Cptmjl
New York Islanders
Joined: 11.05.2011

Aug 5 @ 6:54 AM ET
Welcome back... im innocent.. i swear!!!



XxNYIxX

- XxNYIxX

Do you think hedman is a generational talent?
Jethro09
New York Islanders
Location: NJ
Joined: 08.16.2007

Aug 5 @ 7:23 AM ET
That's pretty short-sighted. You don't have to love that kind of stuff but it has its uses. And it extends far beyond Josh Bailey.
- eichiefs9

Its not short sighted. It's a result based analysis. Who gives a s**t how many shots Bailey gets off or how long he dangles the puck for if he doesn't score and is on the ice for lots of goals against? Inever said advanced sstatistics don't matter, just that they're not as important as whether Bailey is productive. Goals, assists, points and plus/minus reveal if Bailey is productive. high possession numbers don't put pucks in the net. that's my point.
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