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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Analytics, Alderson, Markov and More
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BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Jul 30 @ 10:21 AM ET
I'm an unapologetic honk for those 80's Flyers teams, so I'll never say bad words about Tim Kerr....possibly the most underrated athlete in Philly in ANY sport.
- johndewar

BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Jul 30 @ 10:23 AM ET
So, because I'm fairly certain not too many folks have any interest in arguing about advanced stats in late July, I was wondering what you guys thought about this:

If you were picking today, with the majority of offseason moves complete, who do you like in each conference to win those, and who do you like for the Stanley Cup?

Just your thoughts; I'm just curious.

- AllInForFlyers


Really like Anaheim, can't count out Chicago and LA and for a dark horse I like Tampa
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 30 @ 10:24 AM ET
http://www.spotrac.com/rankings/nhl/average/defenseman/limit-100/


Top 100 NHL defense salaries.

- MBFlyerfan


Yes, but keep in mind when those contracts were signed. Just because Enstrom is the 12th highest-paid defenseman does not mean he is the 12th-best defenseman in the league.
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Jul 30 @ 10:25 AM ET
Right...but, if Doughty were a FA today, how much do you think he'd be making. Remember, much like McDonagh, he was signed when the cap was lower and he was younger and had yet to become Norris-caliber players.
- jmatchett383


Doughty also never got stuck with a cheap bridge deal.

Montreal are being ridiculous with Subban. They have plenty of money and cap room.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 30 @ 10:25 AM ET
He submitted $8.5M. If I'm the arbirator, and look at the comparables, I'd have to lean towards Subann's offer. He did them a favor by accepting their 2-year bridge deal last time, so were I him, I'd expect them to pay me market value, and he's not too far from it. But that's how Montreal works. Negotiating is one thing, but just constantly low-balling your top player is just insulting.
- jmatchett383



I agree. How long can you expect to string the guy along? Either he's a core elite player to build the team or not. If you think he is, which I think he is, then make a good deal for both sides.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Jul 30 @ 10:25 AM ET
Yes, but keep in mind when those contracts were signed. Just because Enstrom is the 12th highest-paid defenseman does not mean he is the 12th-best defenseman in the league.
- jmatchett383


Is that the point you think I was trying to make?
GOA88
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 08.02.2013

Jul 30 @ 10:26 AM ET
Besides Hedman, their defense is made up of overpriced free agents much like the Flyers. Their defense was terrible in the playoffs against Montreal so I am not sure adding 2nd tier UFAs is going to fix it.
- psuhockey

I agree. They have Matt Carle so the defense cant be all that good. The kids still need to grow and Bishop is not playoff proven yet. Lots of question marks with this team but the potential is definitely there.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 30 @ 10:26 AM ET
Doughty also never got stuck with a cheap bridge deal.
- Feanor


True. But, were Doughty a FA today, he could ask for $9M on the open market and likely make it. I'm thinking Subban should have been offered between $7M and $8M.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jul 30 @ 10:26 AM ET
http://www.spotrac.com/rankings/nhl/average/defenseman/limit-100/


Top 100 NHL defense salaries.

- MBFlyerfan


7 in the top 100. Impressive
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 30 @ 10:26 AM ET
Is that the point you think I was trying to make?
- MBFlyerfan


I wasn't sure what point you were trying to make. Just stating that it's a good reference but needs a bit of context.
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

Jul 30 @ 10:28 AM ET
True. But, were Doughty a FA today, he could ask for $9M on the open market and likely make it. I'm thinking Subban should have been offered between $7M and $8M.
- jmatchett383


I think Doughty would get Toews/Kane money.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Jul 30 @ 10:28 AM ET
I wasn't sure what point you were trying to make. Just stating that it's a good reference but needs a bit of context.
- jmatchett383



The point I was trying to make was, hey, here is a list of the top 100 dman salaries in the league.

Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Jul 30 @ 10:29 AM ET
True. But, were Doughty a FA today, he could ask for $9M on the open market and likely make it. I'm thinking Subban should have been offered between $7M and $8M.
- jmatchett383


I agree. They should be trying to lock him up for 8 years at $8 million, not muck around with cheaper, short term deals.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 30 @ 10:31 AM ET
The point I was trying to make was, hey, here is a list of the top 100 dman salaries in the league.
- MBFlyerfan


Okay. Sorry, wasn't trying to start a pissing match. Point taken.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jul 30 @ 10:38 AM ET
If you were picking today, with the majority of offseason moves complete, who do you like in each conference to win those, and who do you like for the Stanley Cup?.
- AllInForFlyers



Boring, but still BOS vs LA. Still the cream of the crop.

TB looks fantastic on paper, but I just can't put too much faith in Bishop having another .924 season. STL looks good too, but goaltending is still an issue.

Two teams I think could really make a surprise challenge next season: DAL and NYI.
aflyerpower8
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: AL
Joined: 06.03.2014

Jul 30 @ 10:38 AM ET
Boring, but still BOS vs LA.

TB looks fantastic on paper, but I can't put too much faith in Bishop having another .924 season. STL looks good too, but goaltending is still an issue.

Two teams I think could really make a surprise challenge next season: DAL and NYI.

- Tomahawk


Agree on Dallas, but I think NYI are a lottery pick.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 30 @ 10:41 AM ET
Boring, but still BOS vs LA. Still the cream of the crop.

TB looks fantastic on paper, but I just can't put too much faith in Bishop having another .924 season. STL looks good too, but goaltending is still an issue.

Two teams I think could really make a surprise challenge next season: DAL and NYI.

- Tomahawk


Don't tell that to Buffalo fans, they're counting on the McDavid/Eichel combo.

And somehow, it's in the Islanders' best interest to finish higher with respect to that pick, which I don't understand.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 30 @ 10:42 AM ET
Agree on Dallas, but I think NYI are a lottery pick.
- aflyerpower8


Healthy Tavares, combined with better forward depth in Kulemin & Grabovski, plus Halak could make Isles markedly better. If Halak can match his career save % it will be a huge improvement over last year's goalies.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jul 30 @ 10:42 AM ET
Boring, but still BOS vs LA. Still the cream of the crop.

TB looks fantastic on paper, but I just can't put too much faith in Bishop having another .924 season. STL looks good too, but goaltending is still an issue.

Two teams I think could really make a surprise challenge next season: DAL and NYI.

- Tomahawk


Yes or no. Do the Flyers make the playoffs?
GOA88
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 08.02.2013

Jul 30 @ 10:43 AM ET
Yes or no. Do the Flyers make the playoffs?
- PhillySportsGuy

Absolutely. They will be better than last season.
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Jul 30 @ 10:44 AM ET
Boring, but still BOS vs LA. Still the cream of the crop.

TB looks fantastic on paper, but I just can't put too much faith in Bishop having another .924 season. STL looks good too, but goaltending is still an issue.

Two teams I think could really make a surprise challenge next season: DAL and NYI.

- Tomahawk


Dallas I can see, the Isles not so much
psuhockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 03.25.2011

Jul 30 @ 10:44 AM ET
I agree with most of that except the "any Flyers player" part. Some players (Giroux) are worth more than four first round picks.
- aflyerpower8

Let's take Giroux as any example. He would of been an rfa this past summer so the 4 1st rd picks would start this year. With Giroux the Flyers are a fridge playoff team. Without him I think it is safe to say they are bottom 5 if not bottom 3. The 2015 draft is loaded with top shelf talent. The Flyers could get one of McDavid, Eichel, of Hanifin whom are considered generational talents. Add to them another 1st rd pick in a draft that is preliminarily being compared to 2003 for its outstanding depth. The way the Flyers draft, that's a Mike Richards, or Scott Laughton, or Travis Sanheim like player. Next year the Flyers would be probably be bad again so another top 5 pick plus a later 1st. After that as they start to turn it around, they would still have 4 more picks to go.

Losing Giroux would set the Flyers back a couple of seasons no doubt. But this team isn't a real contender for 3-4 years anyway as the young defensemen work their way thru the system and play a couple of years in the NHL. So by the time they are ready, Giroux is in his late 20's at the tail end of his prime. Is that better than starting to work 8 1st rd picks for cheap into the lineup. Not too mention having a surplus of picks and prospects, the Flyers could make some huge trades without hurting their system.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jul 30 @ 10:44 AM ET
Healthy Tavares, combined with better forward depth in Kulemin & Grabovski, plus Halak could make Isles markedly better. If Halak can match his career save % it will be a huge improvement over last year's goalies.
- Jsaquella


Their defense is still pretty weak and their depth could still be a problem if Strome isn't ready to step in and play a 3rd line role.

They'll definitely be better. I think they'll be fighting for a playoff spot, but likely won't make it.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jul 30 @ 10:46 AM ET
Yes or no. Do the Flyers make the playoffs?
- PhillySportsGuy


If they do, they'll need help... like some other teams' superstars going down. I really have a hard time seeing the Isles and Devs having complete poop luck again next season, and not sure the Pens or Rags are candidates to fall out.

It's gonna be tough... I'd probably lean no.
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

Jul 30 @ 10:46 AM ET
Dallas I can see, the Isles not so much
- BiggE

The Isles should be better, the just signed 2/3 another good forward line. Still, I keep hearing they're the next big thing in the east each year, and it keeps not happening.
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