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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Analytics, Alderson, Markov and More
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jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 30 @ 10:05 AM ET
You can never count out the Pens, but man they made some big changes.
Maybe they work out. I'm kind of wait and see about them at this point.
MAF is still a key factor how far they go. I think he is still a question mark for them.

- Marc D


MAF actually played well in the playoffs, and unlike past years, he was far from the reason they didn't advance this year. If he keeps it up, they'll be set in goal. Remember, they lost the most man games due to injury last year, and many of them were top-6 forwards and top-3 defenders, not to mention the coach's reluctance to play Crosby on the right side of the PP so that James Neal could play his "natural position." With both Neal and Bylsma gone, I'd expect Crosby back on the right side, which is frightening to think about.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 30 @ 10:06 AM ET
Why would 5.25 be a slap in the face to Subban? They probably approached him and said you will be making A-Mac money!
- PLindbergh31


Well, the AMac deal was grand larceny on the part of Homer, right up there with the stealing of Randy Jones for $2.75M/year. You can't expect all players to take discounts like that.
GOA88
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 08.02.2013

Jul 30 @ 10:08 AM ET
I like LA again if they stay healthy. Tampa out of the East.
- JFlyers00

A little too early to expect Tampa out of the east. IMO give them a couple more years. Still will be dangerous though.
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jul 30 @ 10:08 AM ET
Well, the AMac deal was grand larceny on the part of Homer, right up there with the stealing of Randy Jones for $2.75M/year. You can't expect all players to take discounts like that.
- jmatchett383


Good point. If MacDonald hit free agency he would be making north of 6 million.
A relative coup pulled off by Holmgren.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 30 @ 10:09 AM ET
A little too early to expect Tampa out of the east. IMO give them a couple more years. Still will be dangerous though.
- GOA88


I think TB is a solid playoff team, but I think the ECF is about their ceiling this season.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 30 @ 10:09 AM ET
Good point. If MacDonald hit free agency he would be making north of 6 million.
A relative coup pulled off by Holmgren.

- PLindbergh31


North of $6M is an understatement. We'd be lucky if he'd play for less than Toews/Kane.
Doc_Sarcasm
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Should of studied Geometry
Joined: 04.28.2013

Jul 30 @ 10:10 AM ET
Agreed. He has, what a 65-inch stick to go along with an 8-foot wingspan? As long as he can slowly drift around, he's still an immense pylon.
- jmatchett383



In his case, he's more like a crash barrier or arresting wire on an aircraft carrier. He will bring you to an abrubt halt.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jul 30 @ 10:10 AM ET
So, the Canadiens offered Subban $5.25M for their arbitration hearing. If I were PK, I'd take that as a slap in the face, as I think he's moving into the "elite" defenseman class and should be making, maybe not $8.5M, but north of $7M.
- jmatchett383


8 yrs $10M AAV
GID HOMERRRRRRREXXXXXYYYYY
psuhockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 03.25.2011

Jul 30 @ 10:12 AM ET
Poile did assemble one of the all-time great defenses with Timonen, Hamhuis, Weber, Suter, and Zidlicky all being on the same team.
- aflyerpower8

Yes and that makes matching the Weber contract and letting Suter and Hamhuis walk for nothing even worst. He has been very good at drafting. Its the same reason that if ever somebody offered 4 1st picks for any flyers player, I hope the flyers take the picks because 8 1st rd flyers picks are better than any one player.
GOA88
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 08.02.2013

Jul 30 @ 10:12 AM ET
I think TB is a solid playoff team, but I think the ECF is about their ceiling this season.
- jmatchett383

Right, they may lose a couple times before getting a little more experienced and bitter. Then the hunger will take over and the team will still need to be together. Even then... that does not guarantee a cup. As we all know it takes a little luck, bounces your way as well.
aflyerpower8
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: AL
Joined: 06.03.2014

Jul 30 @ 10:13 AM ET
So, the Canadiens offered Subban $5.25M for their arbitration hearing. If I were PK, I'd take that as a slap in the face, as I think he's moving into the "elite" defenseman class and should be making, maybe not $8.5M, but north of $7M.
- jmatchett383


I don't get what the Canadiens hope to gain on this because, unless he is asking for over 8M per year, I think it is worth its weight in cap space not to offend your best player.
Doc_Sarcasm
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Should of studied Geometry
Joined: 04.28.2013

Jul 30 @ 10:14 AM ET
I don't get what the Canadiens hope to gain on this because, unless he is asking for over 8M per year, I think it is worth its weight in cap space not to offend your best player.
- aflyerpower8



according to TSN, he's asking 8.5.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 30 @ 10:15 AM ET
I don't get what the Canadiens hope to gain on this because, unless he is asking for over 8M per year, I think it is worth its weight in cap space not to offend your best player.
- aflyerpower8


He submitted $8.5M. If I'm the arbirator, and look at the comparables, I'd have to lean towards Subann's offer. He did them a favor by accepting their 2-year bridge deal last time, so were I him, I'd expect them to pay me market value, and he's not too far from it. But that's how Montreal works. Negotiating is one thing, but just constantly low-balling your top player is just insulting.
psuhockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 03.25.2011

Jul 30 @ 10:15 AM ET
I agree, I think Tampa will be the best in the East.
- 3flyerkids

Besides Hedman, their defense is made up of overpriced free agents much like the Flyers. Their defense was terrible in the playoffs against Montreal so I am not sure adding 2nd tier UFAs is going to fix it.
Streit2ThePoint
Seattle Kraken
Location: it's disgusting how good you are at hockeybuzz.
Joined: 09.20.2013

Jul 30 @ 10:15 AM ET
So, the Canadiens offered Subban $5.25M for their arbitration hearing. If I were PK, I'd take that as a slap in the face, as I think he's moving into the "elite" defenseman class and should be making, maybe not $8.5M, but north of $7M.
- jmatchett383


Yikes

I hope teams saved some pennies after free agency
aflyerpower8
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: AL
Joined: 06.03.2014

Jul 30 @ 10:16 AM ET
Yes and that makes matching the Weber contract and letting Suter and Hamhuis walk for nothing even worst. He has been very good at drafting. Its the same reason that if ever somebody offered 4 1st picks for any flyers player, I hope the flyers take the picks because 8 1st rd flyers picks are better than any one player.
- psuhockey


I agree with most of that except the "any Flyers player" part. Some players (Giroux) are worth more than four first round picks.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 30 @ 10:17 AM ET
Besides Hedman, their defense is made up of overpriced free agents much like the Flyers. Their defense was terrible in the playoffs against Montreal so I am not sure adding 2nd tier UFAs is going to fix it.
- psuhockey


They also had their starter injured, and unlike the Flyers, they didn't have a backup who could steal you a few games. The defense wasn't Chicago or LA, but it wasn't any worse than Montreal's.
Baxter27
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.03.2007

Jul 30 @ 10:17 AM ET
I think using stats as a coaching tool can be valuable but hope they are used carefully. I would hate to see the players become too stat focused.

Even with Hexy's example, I see a danger with some players more focused on creating zone entries and less focused on attacking the net.
aflyerpower8
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: AL
Joined: 06.03.2014

Jul 30 @ 10:17 AM ET
according to TSN, he's asking 8.5.
- Doc_Sarcasm


I imagine he came in a bit high as Montreal came in incredibly low.
Streit2ThePoint
Seattle Kraken
Location: it's disgusting how good you are at hockeybuzz.
Joined: 09.20.2013

Jul 30 @ 10:18 AM ET
I imagine he came in a bit high as Montreal came in incredibly low.
- aflyerpower8


I think somewhere around Doughty moneys, 6.5-7, would be comparable.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 30 @ 10:19 AM ET
I think using stats as a coaching tool can be valuable but hope they are used carefully. I would hate to see the players become too stat focused.

Even with Hexy's example, I see a danger with some players more focused on creating zone entries and less focused on attacking the net.

- Baxter27


Exactly. If you enter the zone 200 times a game but turn the puck over immediately after crossing the blue line every time, it's a better idea to chip and chase. I'm not advocating to lose control of the puck and to do a strictly dump-and-chase, but there's more to winning that just possession/zone entries/shot differential.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Jul 30 @ 10:20 AM ET
I think somewhere around Doughty moneys, 6.5-7, would be comparable.
- Streit2ThePoint


Right...but, if Doughty were a FA today, how much do you think he'd be making. Remember, much like McDonagh, he was signed when the cap was lower and he was younger and had yet to become Norris-caliber players.
Doc_Sarcasm
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Should of studied Geometry
Joined: 04.28.2013

Jul 30 @ 10:21 AM ET
I imagine he came in a bit high as Montreal came in incredibly low.
- aflyerpower8



If he were a UFA this year, he'd be getting offers north of that. Whether or not he's actually worth it is a different argument, but the market for players of that skill level runs a wee bit high.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Jul 30 @ 10:21 AM ET
http://www.spotrac.com/ra...age/defenseman/limit-100/


Top 100 NHL defense salaries.
aflyerpower8
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: AL
Joined: 06.03.2014

Jul 30 @ 10:21 AM ET
I think somewhere around Doughty moneys, 6.5-7, would be comparable.
- Streit2ThePoint


I'd happily give him 7.Anything to get him locked up long term.
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