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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Analytics, Alderson, Markov and More
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PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jul 30 @ 11:47 AM ET
I believe there was a consensus on RNH and Hall
- Giroux_Is_God


Not as much on hall. I don't think people would have been completely surprised by seguin. I still think hall is a very good player on an awful team. Would seguin have been much better on that awful team with his well documented maturity issues?

Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jul 30 @ 11:49 AM ET
Not as much on hall. I don't think people would have been completely surprised by seguin. I still think hall is a very good player on an awful team. Would seguin have been much better on that awful team with his well documented maturity issues?
- PhillySportsGuy



Yeah, who can forget all that Taylor vs Tyler poop on TSN.

I'd still take Hall... guy has the heart and soul to go along w/ all that talent... poor guy is just stuck on a poop show of a team.

RNH... meh.
Giroux_Is_God
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: CLASS DISMISSED
Joined: 12.15.2011

Jul 30 @ 11:51 AM ET
Not as much on hall. I don't think people would have been completely surprised by seguin. I still think hall is a very good player on an awful team. Would seguin have been much better on that awful team with his well documented maturity issues?
- PhillySportsGuy

Yeah...on second thought I do remember the "Taylor or Tyler?" thing...

I agree with you though. That team has problems that are going to take a long time to fix. Outside of RNH and Hall, they've had some terrible luck with the draft
Giroux_Is_God
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: CLASS DISMISSED
Joined: 12.15.2011

Jul 30 @ 11:51 AM ET
Yeah, who can forget all that Taylor vs Tyler poop on TSN.

I'd still take Hall... guy has the heart and soul to go along w/ all that talent... poor guy is just stuck on a poop show of a team.

RNH... meh.

- Tomahawk

Kid has a filthy release too
psuhockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 03.25.2011

Jul 30 @ 11:52 AM ET
I don't share the view that the Flyers are mirred in mediocrity. They have a strong nucleus of core players, and I think they're a very good team. My point is that if the right move presents itself, the Flyers should make it, rather then waiting for the young defense to develop. I think the Pronger trade was a great trade, and it was the career ending injury that hurt them, rather then the trade.
- MJL

The last two season: 2012-2013 - 6 pts out of the playoffs
2013-2014 - 4 pts in the playoffs.

Do you think they will be better than last year with the same exact roster? Besides B. Schenn and Couturier, everyone one of their top forwards and defensemen have been in the league for 5 plus years. What you see is what you get with those guys at this point with their best defenseman, Timonen, at the age where he could take another step back. So the only way this team improves is if B. Schenn and Couturier improve. I respect your optimism but that's a big gamble on those guys.
psuhockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 03.25.2011

Jul 30 @ 11:54 AM ET
Not as much on hall. I don't think people would have been completely surprised by seguin. I still think hall is a very good player on an awful team. Would seguin have been much better on that awful team with his well documented maturity issues?
- PhillySportsGuy

Positional importance. #1 center is way more important than a #1 winger.
Giroux_Is_God
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: CLASS DISMISSED
Joined: 12.15.2011

Jul 30 @ 11:54 AM ET
The last two season: 2012-2013 - 6 pts out of the playoffs
2013-2014 - 4 pts in the playoffs.

Do you think they will be better than last year with the same exact roster? Besides B. Schenn and Couturier, everyone one of their top forwards and defensemen have been in the league for 5 plus years. What you see is what you get with those guys at this point with their best defenseman, Timonen, at the age where he could take another step back. So the only way this team improves is if B. Schenn and Couturier improve. I respect your optimism but that's a big gamble on those guys.

- psuhockey

I remember when everyone thought the team was going to fall out of the playoff picture when they had a California/Chicago gauntlet against some of the best in the West but they went 4-1 or something, getting (I think) all but one point.

Do you remember that?

Good times
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jul 30 @ 11:55 AM ET
The last two season: 2012-2013 - 6 pts out of the playoffs
2013-2014 - 4 pts in the playoffs.

Do you think they will be better than last year with the same exact roster? Besides B. Schenn and Couturier, everyone one of their top forwards and defensemen have been in the league for 5 plus years. What you see is what you get with those guys at this point with their best defenseman, Timonen, at the age where he could take another step back. So the only way this team improves is if B. Schenn and Couturier improve. I respect your optimism but that's a big gamble on those guys.

- psuhockey


You are completely underestimating a full year of MacDonald. Enormous.
Just5
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 05.22.2008

Jul 30 @ 11:55 AM ET
Good points. I think what we'll see is these analytics will evolve over time. There are definitely limits to what they can do, due to data collection issues. I really wish we had access to what NHL teams have. But I don't see that happening, so the best thing as a fan is to rely on simply watching the games, rather then relying far too heavily on any analytic.
- MJL


I don't think anyone of us needed to dig into numbers to know that the flyers struggled carrying the puck into the opponents zone instead of just dumping. I think hard numbers are useful to use in team meetings. It might help get points across to players in the midst of team hot/cold streaks
Doc_Sarcasm
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Should of studied Geometry
Joined: 04.28.2013

Jul 30 @ 11:56 AM ET
He played during "dark times" in the late 80's, early 90's.
- johndewar



I was in California, I followed the Flyers but it was much harder in the pre-internet days.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jul 30 @ 11:56 AM ET
Yeah...on second thought I do remember the "Taylor or Tyler?" thing...

I agree with you though. That team has problems that are going to take a long time to fix. Outside of RNH and Hall, they've had some terrible luck with the draft

- Giroux_Is_God


Yeah. I try to think what the flyers would have done in those scenarios. Who would they have taken? Would they have taken a Russian #1 overall?
Giroux_Is_God
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: CLASS DISMISSED
Joined: 12.15.2011

Jul 30 @ 11:57 AM ET
Yeah. I try to think what the flyers would have done in those scenarios. Who would they have taken? Would they have taken a Russian #1 overall?
- PhillySportsGuy

I really don't think they do, honestly.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jul 30 @ 11:59 AM ET
Positional importance. #1 center is way more important than a #1 winger.
- psuhockey


1990: Petr Nedved, Keith Primeau, Mike Ricci, or Jaromir Jagr?
psuhockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 03.25.2011

Jul 30 @ 11:59 AM ET
You are completely underestimating a full year of MacDonald. Enormous.
- PLindbergh31

Don't know what to think of him yet. Stats guys bash him and the playoffs last year weren't his best two weeks. If Timonen takes a step back, MacDonald becomes the #1 defenseman which I am not so sure he is best suited.
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

Jul 30 @ 12:00 PM ET
I was in California, I followed the Flyers but it was much harder in the pre-internet days.
- Doc_Sarcasm


During those "dark times", I was living in State College, PA.

With a bunch of Pens fans.

The Pens were pretty good in those days.

It was not good times.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Jul 30 @ 12:00 PM ET
The last two season: 2012-2013 - 6 pts out of the playoffs
2013-2014 - 4 pts in the playoffs.

Do you think they will be better than last year with the same exact roster? Besides B. Schenn and Couturier, everyone one of their top forwards and defensemen have been in the league for 5 plus years. What you see is what you get with those guys at this point with their best defenseman, Timonen, at the age where he could take another step back. So the only way this team improves is if B. Schenn and Couturier improve. I respect your optimism but that's a big gamble on those guys.

- psuhockey



So you are saying that Simmonds and Voracek have reached the pinnacle of their careers?

I will respectfully disagree.
Giroux_Is_God
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: CLASS DISMISSED
Joined: 12.15.2011

Jul 30 @ 12:00 PM ET
Don't know what to think of him yet. Stats guys bash him and the playoffs last year weren't his best two weeks. If Timonen takes a step back, MacDonald becomes the #1 defenseman which I am not so sure he is best suited.
- psuhockey

Dear fella-

Hey...

Yours,
Braydon Coburn
psuhockey
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 03.25.2011

Jul 30 @ 12:02 PM ET
1990: Petr Nedved, Keith Primeau, Mike Ricci, or Jaromir Jagr?
- Tomahawk

Not a fair example. Jagr was criminally underrated because of concerns of where he was coming from. That being said, he never won a Stanley Cup without the number #1 center in Lemieux.
mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

Jul 30 @ 12:03 PM ET
I didn't have the heart. That was a pretty honest typo.
- johndewar

If the "O" was the least bit close to the "A" on the key board I'd give the typo some consideration.
Giroux_Is_God
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: CLASS DISMISSED
Joined: 12.15.2011

Jul 30 @ 12:03 PM ET
Not a fair example. Jagr was criminally underrated because of concerns of where he was coming from. That being said, he never won a Stanley Cup without the number #1 center in Lemieux.
- psuhockey

Winky face denotes a joke, normally
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jul 30 @ 12:06 PM ET
Not a fair example. Jagr was criminally underrated because of concerns of where he was coming from. That being said, he never won a Stanley Cup without the number #1 center in Lemieux.
- psuhockey


Just mentioning that it isn't always so cut and dry.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jul 30 @ 12:07 PM ET
Dear fella-

Hey...

Yours,
Braydon Coburn

- Giroux_Is_God


Crimsoninja
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Dude, I am so sorry about whatever made you like this. Take it easy.
Joined: 07.06.2007

Jul 30 @ 12:12 PM ET
You are completely underestimating a full year of MacDonald. Enormous.
- PLindbergh31

if he did become an FA what type of salary do you think he would've gotten? serious question. just curious how much you feel he's overpaid by
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 30 @ 12:16 PM ET
Edmonton is a bad drafting team. The work after the 1st rd show its. How much better would they be if they took Landeskog and Murray instead of RNH or Yakupov? Or even Seguin over Hall. There wasn't a consensus on those picks. Building an entire team of small skilled forwards without addressing defenseman, goaltending, or size upfront isn't a great way to build a team.

For bad drafting teams, 4 picks doesn't make sense. The Flyers aren't a bad drafting team.

- psuhockey



Are we talking about 4 first round draft picks or not, instead of Giroux? If so what do later picks have to do with it. Isn't it possible that the Flyers could also make a bad pick?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 30 @ 12:21 PM ET
The last two season: 2012-2013 - 6 pts out of the playoffs
2013-2014 - 4 pts in the playoffs.

Do you think they will be better than last year with the same exact roster? Besides B. Schenn and Couturier, everyone one of their top forwards and defensemen have been in the league for 5 plus years. What you see is what you get with those guys at this point with their best defenseman, Timonen, at the age where he could take another step back. So the only way this team improves is if B. Schenn and Couturier improve. I respect your optimism but that's a big gamble on those guys.

- psuhockey



So individual players improving is the only way a team can get better? A collection of players can't improve their team play, behind a coach that will have a full training camp to implement how he wants to play? Other players such as L. Schenn, Raffl, and others can't improve? Voracek is even a player that can take another step. MacDonald can get a training camp to get fully acclimated to the team.
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