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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Stuart: Top 10 Reasons to Be Excited about the 2014-15 Tampa Bay Lightning
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TommyDeVito
Ottawa Senators
Location: We're gonna skate to one song, and one song only.
Joined: 12.15.2010

Jul 22 @ 2:51 PM ET
1. Corsi does count shot attempts that miss the net.

2. Stralman was not a drag on Staal during his Rangers career. Stralman joined the Rangers in 2011. Look at the three year WOWY numbers: http://stats.hockeyanalys...ue&season=2011-14&sit=5v5

Stralman was basically the same great player with or without Staal. Staal without Stralman was a brutal possession player over those three years (46.8%). That's a large sample size.

3. Nobody is saying that Corsi CAUSES puck possession. People are saying that Corsi measures puck possession. The two, as shown in that article linked above, are correlated nicely.

- Michael_Stuart


SERVED.

OzBolts
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Halifax, NS
Joined: 05.09.2013

Jul 22 @ 2:53 PM ET
This again?
tomburton99
New York Rangers
Location: NYR distrust, NJ
Joined: 07.13.2009

Jul 22 @ 2:53 PM ET
Feel free. I'd love to have you waste your day like that
- TommyDeVito

So you admit, you said it couldn't and wouldn't happen. I rest my case.
TommyDeVito
Ottawa Senators
Location: We're gonna skate to one song, and one song only.
Joined: 12.15.2010

Jul 22 @ 2:56 PM ET
1. I stand corrected.

2. I see that Stralman's Corsi improved when he was on the ice together with Staal. Staal's terrible numbers could be attributed to his battle with serious head injuries.

3. Causation doesn't necessarily mean CAUSES puck possession. The statement simply means that just because there is a correlation, it doesn't mean they're directly related or that Corsi is a percise or accurate measurement of puck possession. Corsi DOES NOT measure puck possession. It measures shots and from that, you make an ASSUMPTION that puck possession can be represented from that data.

- rangerdanger94


Point 1 and 2 are excuses and backtracking, so I'll move on to point 3:

Read this article on Corsi so you understand it a little better:

http://vhockey.blogspot.ca/2008/08/zone-time.html

It's pretty short but interesting, and draws a really clear picture of why it is such a useful (and not deeply flawed like you believe) statistic.

The main thing is this:

And to try and pin values on it, the Pearson correlation coefficient between zone time and the three different shots metrics:

Shots +/-: .86
Fenwick +/-: .87
Corsi +/-: .90


That's more or less a coefficient of correlation that is as close as it gets in real life. So yes, it does accurately reflect possession time.

And Staal's terrible numbers could be attributed to the fact that he isn't very good right now. Not saying he can't be again, once he gets back up to speed after his injuries, but Stralman has been the better player for three years now.
rangerdanger94
New York Rangers
Location: NY
Joined: 05.23.2010

Jul 22 @ 3:10 PM ET
This again?
- OzBolts

I was in florida last week and you guys had some crazy weather. Intense thunderstorms every day but theyd only last for an hour each time. Is that typical? Tropical storm season?

Edit: nvm you live in calgary. Can anyone from florida answer my questions?
Michael Stuart
Ottawa Senators
Location: "Caresi > Corsi"
Joined: 10.24.2011

Jul 22 @ 3:11 PM ET
Point 1 and 2 are excuses and backtracking, so I'll move on to point 3:

Read this article on Corsi so you understand it a little better:

http://vhockey.blogspot.ca/2008/08/zone-time.html

It's pretty short but interesting, and draws a really clear picture of why it is such a useful (and not deeply flawed like you believe) statistic.

The main thing is this:



That's more or less a coefficient of correlation that is as close as it gets in real life. So yes, it does accurately reflect possession time.

And Staal's terrible numbers could be attributed to the fact that he isn't very good right now. Not saying he can't be again, once he gets back up to speed after his injuries, but Stralman has been the better player for three years now.

- TommyDeVito


Great post.
Michael Stuart
Ottawa Senators
Location: "Caresi > Corsi"
Joined: 10.24.2011

Jul 22 @ 3:12 PM ET
SERVED.


- TommyDeVito


*saves gif*
Michael Stuart
Ottawa Senators
Location: "Caresi > Corsi"
Joined: 10.24.2011

Jul 22 @ 3:13 PM ET
I was in florida last week and you guys had some crazy weather. Intense thunderstorms every day but theyd only last for an hour each time. Is that typical? Tropical storm season?

Edit: nvm you live in calgary. Can anyone from florida answer my questions?

- rangerdanger94



Tampa is the lightning capital of North America.
stammerman
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 07.05.2013

Jul 22 @ 3:19 PM ET
I was in florida last week and you guys had some crazy weather. Intense thunderstorms every day but theyd only last for an hour each time. Is that typical? Tropical storm season?

Edit: nvm you live in calgary. Can anyone from florida answer my questions?

- rangerdanger94


Lived here for 22 years and we use the old Mark Twain expression, "If you don't like the weather now wait 15 minutes." From End of May thru September our typical storms are mostly late afternoon strong thunder storms that pop up and disappear just as fast. Then as we get into September thru November we start to get more tropical storms that blanket the state some being depressions or hurricanes.

That's the best part of the storms down here in the summer they only last an hour so all you got to do is dodge them and get back to what you were doing.
OzBolts
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Halifax, NS
Joined: 05.09.2013

Jul 22 @ 3:21 PM ET
I was in florida last week and you guys had some crazy weather. Intense thunderstorms every day but theyd only last for an hour each time. Is that typical? Tropical storm season?

Edit: nvm you live in calgary. Can anyone from florida answer my questions?

- rangerdanger94



True, but we seem to get tropical-level storms around this time of year occasionally.... maybe living next to the Bow River wasn't the best idea I've ever had...
rangerdanger94
New York Rangers
Location: NY
Joined: 05.23.2010

Jul 22 @ 3:26 PM ET
Tampa is the lightning capital of North America.
- Michael_Stuart

I guess the team name makes sense now

My dad bought a house in palm coast for his retirement. We usually go there for vacation once a year and this past time, like I said, had spurts of violent weather. Was wondering if this was typical for future planning or not. Thanks.
rangerdanger94
New York Rangers
Location: NY
Joined: 05.23.2010

Jul 22 @ 3:27 PM ET
Lived here for 22 years and we use the old Mark Twain expression, "If you don't like the weather now wait 15 minutes." From End of May thru September our typical storms are mostly late afternoon strong thunder storms that pop up and disappear just as fast. Then as we get into September thru November we start to get more tropical storms that blanket the state some being depressions or hurricanes.

That's the best part of the storms down here in the summer they only last an hour so all you got to do is dodge them and get back to what you were doing.

- stammerman

Yup sounds super accurate.
Artyukhin76
Tampa Bay Lightning
Joined: 07.25.2009

Jul 22 @ 3:39 PM ET
I was in florida last week and you guys had some crazy weather. Intense thunderstorms every day but theyd only last for an hour each time. Is that typical? Tropical storm season?

Edit: nvm you live in calgary. Can anyone from florida answer my questions?

- rangerdanger94

That's standard Florida summer weather. Tampa is the Lightning capital NA!
stammerman
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 07.05.2013

Jul 22 @ 3:49 PM ET
I guess the team name makes sense now

My dad bought a house in palm coast for his retirement. We usually go there for vacation once a year and this past time, like I said, had spurts of violent weather. Was wondering if this was typical for future planning or not. Thanks.

- rangerdanger94


Palm Coast is north of Daytona by St Augustine that area doesn't have as many thunderstorms like the I-4 corridor Tampa - Daytona, granted it will get its fair share but no where near the amount of lightning and severe rain central Florida gets. To be honest Lake Wales in Polk County right in the middle of the state from what I have see gets more nasty storms then anywhere else.
Artyukhin76
Tampa Bay Lightning
Joined: 07.25.2009

Jul 22 @ 4:03 PM ET
Palm Coast is north of Daytona by St Augustine that area doesn't have as many thunderstorms like the I-4 corridor Tampa - Daytona, granted it will get its fair share but no where near the amount of lightning and severe rain central Florida gets. To be honest Lake Wales in Polk County right in the middle of the state from what I have see gets more nasty storms then anywhere else.
- stammerman

I travel the entire state all the time and these storms are crazy.... Everywhere.
KreiderBomb
New York Rangers
Location: "I'm outta here. Childish,fraud fans. Good luck not having any youth coming up for like 10 years, yo
Joined: 06.02.2014

Jul 22 @ 4:32 PM ET
If Tampa finished 1st in Corsi that's all that matters, forget the Cup, fancy stats is trending
todd1a
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Valrico, FL
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jul 22 @ 4:52 PM ET
I was in florida last week and you guys had some crazy weather. Intense thunderstorms every day but theyd only last for an hour each time. Is that typical? Tropical storm season?

Edit: nvm you live in calgary. Can anyone from florida answer my questions?

- rangerdanger94

Yes it is all summer long
Artyukhin76
Tampa Bay Lightning
Joined: 07.25.2009

Jul 22 @ 4:55 PM ET
If Tampa finished 1st in Corsi that's all that matters, forget the Cup, fancy stats is trending
- KreiderBomb

You know what else is trending? Rangers fans douching it up! Congrats on you 15 seconds of fame buddy.
todd1a
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Valrico, FL
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jul 22 @ 4:55 PM ET
I guess the team name makes sense now

My dad bought a house in palm coast for his retirement. We usually go there for vacation once a year and this past time, like I said, had spurts of violent weather. Was wondering if this was typical for future planning or not. Thanks.

- rangerdanger94

If you shoot for March or April to come down you won't have the storms and weather will be nice.
uf1910
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Excuseville, FL
Joined: 06.29.2011

Jul 22 @ 5:13 PM ET
Back on the stralman > staal train I see.

Didn't tampa only turn their attention towards stralman AFTER they lost out on dan boyle?

- rangerdanger94


Ummm no. Boyle wanted to come back to Tampa but he wasn't a fit for our need on D. Had we not acquired Garrison there could have been a potential fit for our PP but once we acquired Garrison at the draft Boyle to Tampa wasn't happening.

Stralman was signed only after we moved on from Niskanen b/c he was taking too long to make a decision and Yzerman didn't want to get left out like the Wings and end up with no help coming on D (outside of Garrison).
uf1910
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Excuseville, FL
Joined: 06.29.2011

Jul 22 @ 5:15 PM ET
You guys were in on dan boyle hard until he signed with the rangers. Obviously if you would've signed him, you wouldnt have signed stralman due to a lack of capspace and roster spots.

You're really good at assumptions since your into corsi so much so it shouldn't be too hard to figure out

- rangerdanger94


Boyle was hard in for the Bolts, not the other way around. He still has a home in Tampa and wanted to "return" but our needs on D are Boyle's weaknesses
uf1910
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Excuseville, FL
Joined: 06.29.2011

Jul 22 @ 5:15 PM ET
That isn't how that happened at all. But feel free to believe it!
- Michael_Stuart



uf1910
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Excuseville, FL
Joined: 06.29.2011

Jul 22 @ 5:17 PM ET
Reported
- rangerdanger94





rangerdanger94
New York Rangers
Location: NY
Joined: 05.23.2010

Jul 22 @ 5:19 PM ET

- uf1910

He will have lots of time to read the code of conduct while he's on his vacation
uf1910
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Excuseville, FL
Joined: 06.29.2011

Jul 22 @ 5:23 PM ET
He will have lots of time to read the code of conduct while he's on his vacation
- rangerdanger94


That was a sarcastic laugh btw but thanks for clarifying for me why you had him "reported"
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