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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Stuart: Top 10 Reasons to Be Excited about the 2014-15 Tampa Bay Lightning
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Artyukhin76
Tampa Bay Lightning
Joined: 07.25.2009

Jul 22 @ 1:29 PM ET
Back on the stralman > staal train I see.

Didn't tampa only turn their attention towards stralman AFTER they lost out on dan boyle?

- rangerdanger94

rangerdanger94
New York Rangers
Location: NY
Joined: 05.23.2010

Jul 22 @ 1:32 PM ET
Tampa fans welcome to our (Islanders) world. While there are many classy Ranger fans, that vocal minority has the ability to show up and tarnish their team, and their fan base. Once any player leaves them they were not that good, any player that comes is great, and your club can't be better, ever.
Tampa had possibly the best off season of any team in the league. They improved not just through the addition of any one player but a group, and it started with the St. Louis trade. Stevie Y made chicken salad out of chicken s&!t. He was in a horrible situation and made the best out of it long term. You will reap benefits for a while, I will move aside and let the anti-Isles, moving to Brooklyn, we made the finals, etc start. Best of luck, I look forward to watching your club this year.

- Sec111

Stralman is a great defenseman. Islanders have a bright future. I think you are playoff bound this year.

And yes, we did make the finals largely thanks to MSL. That trade, like the stralman signing for tampa while we signed dan boyle, helped both sides.
rangerdanger94
New York Rangers
Location: NY
Joined: 05.23.2010

Jul 22 @ 1:33 PM ET
No?
- Michael_Stuart

You guys were in on dan boyle hard until he signed with the rangers. Obviously if you would've signed him, you wouldnt have signed stralman due to a lack of capspace and roster spots.

You're really good at assumptions since your into corsi so much so it shouldn't be too hard to figure out
Michael Stuart
Ottawa Senators
Location: "Caresi > Corsi"
Joined: 10.24.2011

Jul 22 @ 1:35 PM ET
You guys were in on dan boyle hard until he signed with the rangers. Obviously if you would've signed him, you wouldnt have signed stralman due to a lack of capspace and roster spots.

You're really good at assumptions since your into corsi so much so it shouldn't be too hard to figure out

- rangerdanger94


That isn't how that happened at all. But feel free to believe it!
TBolts4
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Apollo Beach, FL
Joined: 06.01.2013

Jul 22 @ 1:38 PM ET
Back on the stralman possession numbers > staal possession numbers train I see.

Didn't tampa only turn their attention towards stralman AFTER they lost out on dan boyle?

- rangerdanger94


Fixed it for you, maybe clearing it up at the same time, but sounds like you're just trolling at this point
rangerdanger94
New York Rangers
Location: NY
Joined: 05.23.2010

Jul 22 @ 1:41 PM ET
Fixed it for you, maybe clearing it up at the same time, but sounds like you're just trolling at this point
- TBolts4

Incorrect. Corsi does not directly demonstrate possession statistics.
Michael Stuart
Ottawa Senators
Location: "Caresi > Corsi"
Joined: 10.24.2011

Jul 22 @ 1:47 PM ET
Incorrect. Corsi does not directly demonstrate possession statistics.
- rangerdanger94


Do you have evidence to support this?

Here's strong evidence to the contrary: http://www.pensionplanpup...-time-at-the-halfway-mark
TBolts4
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Apollo Beach, FL
Joined: 06.01.2013

Jul 22 @ 1:50 PM ET
Incorrect. Corsi does not directly demonstrate possession statistics.
- rangerdanger94


Corsi approximates possession. The NHL doesnt record time of possession so this is the best way to measure possession using NHL-collected information.
Michael Stuart
Ottawa Senators
Location: "Caresi > Corsi"
Joined: 10.24.2011

Jul 22 @ 1:50 PM ET
Corsi approximates possession. The NHL doesnt record time of possession so this is the best way to measure possession using NHL-collected information.
- TBolts4


See that link above. They correlate extremely well.
TBolts4
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: Apollo Beach, FL
Joined: 06.01.2013

Jul 22 @ 1:53 PM ET
See that link above. They correlate extremely well.
- Michael_Stuart


Yes, it is not 100% full proof, but it illustrates very well how possession goes.
Clicker
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: FL
Joined: 12.06.2007

Jul 22 @ 1:58 PM ET
"...And yes, we did make the finals largely thanks to MSL"...

Now that there is funny as sheet!
Yeah he was a scoring maniac wasn't he....pleeeze!
Tell me how you feel midway next season when you see his defensive liabilities and how easily he gets knocked off the puck. You had a great team effort and a 38 year old is not going to carry your team next season. Just my opinion and I am entitled to it.
rangerdanger94
New York Rangers
Location: NY
Joined: 05.23.2010

Jul 22 @ 1:58 PM ET
Do you have evidence to support this?

Here's strong evidence to the contrary: http://www.pensionplanpup...-time-at-the-halfway-mark

- Michael_Stuart

http://www.pensionplanpup...si-don-cherry-hates-corsi

This helps illustrate EXACTLY what Corsi really is.

Correlation does NOT equal causation. Corsi is simply a proxy that is used based on assumptions. There can be many flaws to it; for example, Corsi doesn't take into account missed shots on net. A team could possess the puck for an entire game and just miss the net every time and Corsi wouldn't reflect possession accurately. Additionally, for a team like the Rangers who play a system where they throw any puck on net, Corsi can lead to an overestimation of perceived possession. The Rangers would sometimes get 5 bad shots off within a 5 second span and then lose possession of the puck and play desperation defense in our own end for large chunks of time but either block the shots or keep them to the outside where they won't shoot.

You will cite that over a large sample size, one could argue that these potential flaws don't matter as much; however, you fail to acknowledge that over the large sample size, Staal is a better possession player than Stralman and that Stralman was actually a drag on Staal's Corsi over the course of his entire Rangers career.
tpd11
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: FL
Joined: 05.22.2008

Jul 22 @ 1:58 PM ET
Do you have evidence to support this?

Here's strong evidence to the contrary: http://www.pensionplanpup...-time-at-the-halfway-mark

- Michael_Stuart

So what did I miss anything important? I see the Rags are still here so I guess nothing. Still on the rag are they? Maybe if they had 10 reasons to be excited they'd be on their own blog. But they're still walking around with their Staal woodies. Time to get a life guys. The seasons over you lost just like everyone except LA, and it's doubtful you get another sniff for awhile with all the Cap issues, whereas we have reasons to be excited don't let the door hit you in the ass on your way out.
rangerdanger94
New York Rangers
Location: NY
Joined: 05.23.2010

Jul 22 @ 1:59 PM ET
"...And yes, we did make the finals largely thanks to MSL"...

Now that there is funny as sheet!
Yeah he was a scoring maniac wasn't he....pleeeze!
Tell me how you feel midway next season when you see his defensive liabilities and how easily he gets knocked off the puck. You had a great team effort and a 38 year old is not going to carry your team next season. Just my opinion and I am entitled to it.

- Clicker

http://rangers.nhl.com/cl...ameType=3&season=20132014

He was our leading scoring forward in the playoffs.....
rangerdanger94
New York Rangers
Location: NY
Joined: 05.23.2010

Jul 22 @ 2:00 PM ET
So what did I miss anything important? I see the Rags are still here so I guess nothing. Still on the rag are they? Maybe if they had 10 reasons to be excited they'd be on their own blog. But they're still walking around with their Staal woodies. Time to get a life guys. The seasons over you lost just like everyone except LA, and it's doubtful you get another sniff for awhile with all the Cap issues, whereas we have reasons to be excited don't let the door hit you in the ass on your way out.
- tpd11

Reported
Michael Stuart
Ottawa Senators
Location: "Caresi > Corsi"
Joined: 10.24.2011

Jul 22 @ 2:02 PM ET
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2012/7/23/3173579/what-is-corsi-how-do-you-use-corsi-who-is-corsi-don-cherry-hates-corsi

This helps illustrate EXACTLY what Corsi really is.

Correlation does NOT equal causation. Corsi is simply a proxy that is used based on assumptions. There can be many flaws to it; for example, Corsi doesn't take into account missed shots on net. A team could possess the puck for an entire game and just miss the net every time and Corsi wouldn't reflect possession accurately. Additionally, for a team like the Rangers who play a system where they throw any puck on net, Corsi can lead to an overestimation of perceived possession. The Rangers would sometimes get 5 bad shots off within a 5 second span and then lose possession of the puck and play desperation defense in our own end for large chunks of time but either block the shots or keep them to the outside where they won't shoot.

You will cite that over a large sample size, one could argue that these potential flaws don't matter as much; however, you fail to acknowledge that over the large sample size, Staal is a better possession player than Stralman and that Stralman was actually a drag on Staal's Corsi over the course of his entire Rangers career.

- rangerdanger94


1. Corsi does count shot attempts that miss the net.

2. Stralman was not a drag on Staal during his Rangers career. Stralman joined the Rangers in 2011. Look at the three year WOWY numbers: http://stats.hockeyanalys...ue&season=2011-14&sit=5v5

Stralman was basically the same great player with or without Staal. Staal without Stralman was a brutal possession player over those three years (46.8%). That's a large sample size.

3. Nobody is saying that Corsi CAUSES puck possession. People are saying that Corsi measures puck possession. The two, as shown in that article linked above, are correlated nicely.
Clicker
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: FL
Joined: 12.06.2007

Jul 22 @ 2:07 PM ET
http://rangers.nhl.com/club/stats.htm?gameType=3&season=20132014

He was our leading scoring forward in the playoffs.....

- rangerdanger94



And a minus stat player too I believe.

Artyukhin76
Tampa Bay Lightning
Joined: 07.25.2009

Jul 22 @ 2:15 PM ET
Reported
- rangerdanger94

rangerdanger94
New York Rangers
Location: NY
Joined: 05.23.2010

Jul 22 @ 2:15 PM ET
1. Corsi does count shot attempts that miss the net.

2. Stralman was not a drag on Staal during his Rangers career. Stralman joined the Rangers in 2011. Look at the three year WOWY numbers: http://stats.hockeyanalys...ue&season=2011-14&sit=5v5

Stralman was basically the same great player with or without Staal. Staal without Stralman was a brutal possession player over those three years (46.8%). That's a large sample size.

3. Nobody is saying that Corsi CAUSES puck possession. People are saying that Corsi measures puck possession. The two, as shown in that article linked above, are correlated nicely.

- Michael_Stuart

1. I stand corrected.

2. I see that Stralman's Corsi improved when he was on the ice together with Staal. Staal's terrible numbers could be attributed to his battle with serious head injuries.

3. Causation doesn't necessarily mean CAUSES puck possession. The statement simply means that just because there is a correlation, it doesn't mean they're directly related or that Corsi is a percise or accurate measurement of puck possession. Corsi DOES NOT measure puck possession. It measures shots and from that, you make an ASSUMPTION that puck possession can be represented from that data.
rangerdanger94
New York Rangers
Location: NY
Joined: 05.23.2010

Jul 22 @ 2:16 PM ET
And a minus stat player too I believe.
- Clicker

So was McDonagh, our best defenseman, and Stepan, our best two-way forward
Michael Stuart
Ottawa Senators
Location: "Caresi > Corsi"
Joined: 10.24.2011

Jul 22 @ 2:21 PM ET
1. I stand corrected.

2. I see that Stralman's Corsi improved when he was on the ice together with Staal. Staal's terrible numbers could be attributed to his battle with serious head injuries.

3. Causation doesn't necessarily mean CAUSES puck possession. The statement simply means that just because there is a correlation, it doesn't mean they're directly related or that Corsi is a percise or accurate measurement of puck possession. Corsi DOES NOT measure puck possession. It measures shots and from that, you make an ASSUMPTION that puck possession can be represented from that data.

- rangerdanger94


2. Stralman's Corsi, on the whole, improved 0.4%. Last year it actually got slightly worse. Bottom line is that Stralman didn't change much at all. The difference is insignificant. Staal's difference, a 7.8% swing, is hugely significant. Stralman away from Staal is still Stralman. Staal away from Stralman is not a good possession player.

And yes, it absolutely could be because of his injuries. But injuries are part of the game. It doesn't change the fact that he wasn't good away from Stralman.

3. Read that article. It shows that Corsi accurately reflects and correlates with puck possession. It legitimately shows it. With evidence. Corsi and Fenwick mirror time on attack incredibly well.
tpd11
Tampa Bay Lightning
Location: FL
Joined: 05.22.2008

Jul 22 @ 2:40 PM ET
Reported
- rangerdanger94

Thanks, to who?
TommyDeVito
Ottawa Senators
Location: We're gonna skate to one song, and one song only.
Joined: 12.15.2010

Jul 22 @ 2:41 PM ET
I can pull up the blogs and comments for if you like. Amnesia must be awful to live with.
- tomburton99


Feel free. I'd love to have you waste your day like that
TommyDeVito
Ottawa Senators
Location: We're gonna skate to one song, and one song only.
Joined: 12.15.2010

Jul 22 @ 2:45 PM ET
Tampa fans welcome to our (Islanders) world. While there are many classy Ranger fans, that vocal minority has the ability to show up and tarnish their team, and their fan base. Once any player leaves them they were not that good, any player that comes is great, and your club can't be better, ever.
Tampa had possibly the best off season of any team in the league. They improved not just through the addition of any one player but a group, and it started with the St. Louis trade. Stevie Y made chicken salad out of chicken s&!t. He was in a horrible situation and made the best out of it long term. You will reap benefits for a while, I will move aside and let the anti-Isles, moving to Brooklyn, we made the finals, etc start. Best of luck, I look forward to watching your club this year.

- Sec111


It's really just four of them, Jimbro, Tomburton, and a couple others I could name if I looked at Jan's blog for ten seconds.

But they're extremely vocal, quick to turn to name calling, enjoy strawman arguments (see Tom continually bringing up my insistence that Callahan wasn't enough to get Marty despite that ending up being true), and then when you say anything after they lose, they cry to their mods to have you banned.

I must say, it made reading the comments on their thread very satisfying after the rangers got their ass handed to them in the SCF.
TommyDeVito
Ottawa Senators
Location: We're gonna skate to one song, and one song only.
Joined: 12.15.2010

Jul 22 @ 2:49 PM ET
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2012/7/23/3173579/what-is-corsi-how-do-you-use-corsi-who-is-corsi-don-cherry-hates-corsi

This helps illustrate EXACTLY what Corsi really is.

Correlation does NOT equal causation. Corsi is simply a proxy that is used based on assumptions. There can be many flaws to it; for example, Corsi doesn't take into account missed shots on net. A team could possess the puck for an entire game and just miss the net every time and Corsi wouldn't reflect possession accurately. Additionally, for a team like the Rangers who play a system where they throw any puck on net, Corsi can lead to an overestimation of perceived possession. The Rangers would sometimes get 5 bad shots off within a 5 second span and then lose possession of the puck and play desperation defense in our own end for large chunks of time but either block the shots or keep them to the outside where they won't shoot.

You will cite that over a large sample size, one could argue that these potential flaws don't matter as much; however, you fail to acknowledge that over the large sample size, Staal is a better possession player than Stralman and that Stralman was actually a drag on Staal's Corsi over the course of his entire Rangers career.

- rangerdanger94


The first bolded point is false, Corsi does take into account missed shot attempts directed anywhere near the net.

The second bolded point is still good defensive play, and thus corsi would reflect well on it. If you are limiting their shots at the net, you are playing good defense. You are preventing them from winning the shot aka corsi battle.

Your last point, if true, is legitimate - if Stralman was only a good possession player last season, then that is relevant information, but I don't have the motivation to confirm it. I think I read the exact opposite was true, but I'll let someone else do the research.
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