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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: The Cap Conundrum
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imissroenick
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.02.2014

Jul 14 @ 1:39 PM ET
yeah he we go again...another gutting of the team period. I mean if the cap doesnt go up significantly we are screwed again.
busmaster
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 08.06.2010

Jul 14 @ 1:39 PM ET
Hey guys. How close do you think McNeil is to challenging for 2C?
tredbrta
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.30.2012

Jul 14 @ 1:40 PM ET
I can't agree with that.
Toews has smart play making ability, a decent shot, good points totals, is the BEST two-way center in the game, makes clutch plays happen out of thin air, has earned every single award and championship (NHL and international) that matters.

And he leads by example... and he's very young still.

I think Toews is about the only player in the league I'd trade Stamkos straight up for.

- OzBolts


Good post and quite a compliment to Toews....

but we will give you Kane for Stamkos.

EKB13
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.18.2009

Jul 14 @ 1:41 PM ET
Hey guys. How close do you think McNeil is to challenging for 2C?
- busmaster


The organization has had McNeill playing primarily at RW in Rockford. So I would guess that they are not looking at him to be the #2C of the future.
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Jul 14 @ 1:44 PM ET
I can't agree with that.
Toews has smart play making ability, a decent shot, good points totals, is the BEST two-way center in the game, makes clutch plays happen out of thin air, has earned every single award and championship (NHL and international) that matters.

And he leads by example... and he's very young still.

I think Toews is about the only player in the league I'd trade Stamkos straight up for.

- OzBolts

I'm not sure that I'd want to see ANY player in place of Toews.
busmaster
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 08.06.2010

Jul 14 @ 1:45 PM ET
The organization has had McNeill playing primarily at RW in Rockford. So I would guess that they are not looking at him to be the #2C of the future.
- EKolb13


Oh thanks... Drafting all these centers who don't play center...
tredbrta
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.30.2012

Jul 14 @ 1:46 PM ET
Hey guys. How close do you think McNeil is to challenging for 2C?
- busmaster


The Hawks have good depth in the system but only Schmalz and TT project as top 6 forwards. That doesn't mean some players won't surprise us.

I think names not being discussed much that could have great futures like Van Riemsdyk and Hayden - these may be the Shaws of 2015 or 16. If McNeil keeps progressing then he could be one - even sooner. But probably not at 2C.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 14 @ 1:48 PM ET
With out looking it up, who did the Bucks get for Jabbar?
- Beaver-Warrior


Meyers? A big, slow white forward, I think. Don't remember the rest.
FourFeathers773
Joined: 12.02.2011

Jul 14 @ 1:51 PM ET
Oh thanks... Drafting all these centers who don't play center...
- busmaster


Meh, the second they drafted him, most of the scouts said it was more likely he would be a wing in the NHL than a center

its nice he has the experience to be slotted there if necessary, but since day 1, I heard the hawks drafted him with the intention of being a power forward on the wing
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jul 14 @ 2:12 PM ET
I think the question you're getting at, and indeed it's pretty much the question at the root of all of this cap controversy, is simply: how valuable are Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews? Is Kane worth more as himself or as 3-4 players making a combined $10.5 million?

I think it's a legitimate question, and your view of it really depends on how you see a team being built and how much faith your have in your drafting and development. Detroit has made the playoffs countless years in a row by simply keeping the players they know make their team strong, at any price, and then bolstering them with bargain free agents and young players who have to struggle through the system to even get a sniff of NHL play. Other teams, like say the St. Louis Blues, have risen to the top echelon of the league by accumulating a large quantity of second tier talent at reasonable prices, and rolling 3-4 fairly interchangeable lines. The Kings, for the most part, have done something similar, with really only Doughty and Kopitar being legitimate stars at their positions.

Something else to think about is that talent creates depth. A second line center who is just average becomes a very good third or fourth line center when you have a far superior player above him.

So really, which method is the best? Top heavy and bringing on the young guys/replacement players and then pass the mantle when it's time, or being a better full team with a higher "talent average" than other teams and having lots of similar contracts. I think the decision about trading Kane or Sharp or anyone for that matter rests on which philosophy you believe is right.

- Sandus


Let me add another question to the conundrum of staying in the top 5 year after year in the salary cap era. I've asked this before in the few times I post here, is a puck possession by means of skill style (the Hawks) feasible in a cap league?

Can a complete skill style be sustained year after year as players come and go every few years in this hard cap league?

The Hawks and Red Wings are puck possession but so are the Bruins and Kings. Both sets go about it a different way. The Hawks/Wings need skill guys (expensive), and Dmen to trigger it (expensive), to play a speed/skill 14 pass and score style.

The Kings/Bruins play a stout heavy defensive zone game, dump, retrieve and get bodies to the front to score (a less top heavy deeper 4 line system that should be cheaper, or at least cheaper to replace guys they lose via free agency).

Is one Kane better than 2 Dubinsky's? Is one Kane better than a Stastny and Backes? Is one Kane better than a Coture and Pavelski?

Before they ended the ability to spread a cap hit out over 10-15 yrs, no IMO. In today's cap structure if you have at least one elite scorer I think having better depth scoring in a defense first system that can score dirty goals might be the safer option........ But of course that didn't work for St Louis but did for the Kings and Bruins.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jul 14 @ 2:24 PM ET
And one more thing, Sandus. I read this somewhere since the Kane-Toews signing, that if the cap only goes up 5% per year but top guys' go up 40% the math just doesn't work.

DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Jul 14 @ 2:35 PM ET
It's possible that it could in some way. Both Myers and Leddy are still young, and Myers is a right handed shot and has a deal locked in at $5.5 million per until the end of the '18-'19 season.
- EKolb13



The cost certainty for that length of time would be good, but if Stan is looking to shed contracts to create cap space I don't see him taking on $5.5 million. Maybe if Seabrook was moved and Myers was his replacement. There may be discussions between Chicago and Buffalo regarding Myers but I don't see a deal happening. But I've been known to be wrong a lot.
Cup-Bearer
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 03.14.2014

Jul 14 @ 2:36 PM ET
yeah he we go again...another gutting of the team period. I mean if the cap doesnt go up significantly we are screwed again.
- imissroenick


Welcome to the cap era. It is basically set up to even up the playing field on the ice. Sure there is more money going to the owners and little by little the players are getting their's. It is harder than ever to stay on top. At least we have excellent players signed long term. Colorado could not keep Statsny, Sens - Spezza etc.
RoloTahmasee
Joined: 07.24.2009

Jul 14 @ 2:39 PM ET
So he's 2 million better? 2.5 million better? Please tell me your logic. I love when people make these dumb statements.
- golfbard


He's about 1.5 million better than Bergeron, meaning I value Toews at about 8 million

As example, If I had 12 million to spend I'd rather have

Toews and 4 million in caps space
Then
Bergeron and 5.5 million in cap space
Then
Toews and 1.5 million in cap space

Cap space is a factor in evaluating talent in a cap system

Bergeron and 5.5 million > Toews and 1.5 million

z1990z
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: NW USA
Joined: 02.09.2012

Jul 14 @ 2:47 PM ET
Kevin Dineen to replace Kompon. Former Q teammate. Shocker. That's per espn.


He had a lot of success coaching the women's Olympic team and has prior HC experience. Could turn out to be a good guy to have behind the bench.
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Jul 14 @ 2:48 PM ET
Al McGuire the TV commentator and great basketball coach said a team wants as many great players as it can get but no team can survive long term with more than one super star. When a team has two superstars, you are better to convert one of those superstars into a couple of great players.
- spatso

Surviving long term is the key.

Your post is 100% hit the nail on the head.

If Chicago carries on with many big salaries, then the bottom half salary players better be able to contribute and they have to be able to keep players in the bottom half at their low salary. Which means farm club players, maybe a low priced veteran, a Rassmussen type gamble. When someone like Saad requires more money, or Oduya, Leddy, Kruger want more, then one of them is dealt for picks. Or Sharp for picks. The number of star players is therefore going to become a declining number when your young talent gets better, or a veteran wants a salary increase.

What else can you do but just draft and develop well. Oh, you could try to trade up for a high impact draft choice. Once that draft choice is a good NHL player the cycle of subtracting from your top quantity of good players goes into effect again. So then Bowman is looking at subtracting a Sharp, or Oduya/Leddy, maybe Kruger. The player who,fills the void is a depth farm hand most likely. That being the case, better hope a Saad, or someone else like Shaw or Kruger or Dahlbeck steps up.
gnosox1986
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: FL
Joined: 01.25.2012

Jul 14 @ 2:50 PM ET
Oh thanks... Drafting all these centers who don't play center...
- busmaster


Yup he will be a winger... At his best, I would project him somewhere in the area of inbetween Ladd and Brouwer when they were Hawks. a good 3rd liner with the ability to play up the 2nd line, but probably not more.

Brouwer leveled off and Ladd obviously went on to bigger and better things, but there is nothing to say McNeill couldn't do the same thing given a shot.

Then again, he could turn out to be another Kyle Beach.
BearsnHawks
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: TX
Joined: 07.01.2012

Jul 14 @ 2:57 PM ET
I get that, but if Chicago is looking for cap releif, then the return for Leddy would be a 2nd/3rd round pick .... a body going back to Chicago does not see any cap relief.
- GadesnSens


We dont need an NHL body back, maybe a high end prospect and a 1/2 round pick
BlazinMike
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 05.08.2013

Jul 14 @ 3:02 PM ET
We dont need an NHL body back, maybe a high end prospect and a 1/2 round pick
- BearsnHawks


Leddy wouldnt fetch a 1st round pick
BearsnHawks
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: TX
Joined: 07.01.2012

Jul 14 @ 3:07 PM ET
Leddy wouldnt fetch a 1st round pick
- BlazinMike


Depends on the team. Could he fetch a first rounder from a top team (late first round pick)? Could he fetch a 2016 1st round pick?

I mean Rundblad was worth a 2nd round pick

Not to mention younger than Rundblad and much more NHL experience.
EKB13
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.18.2009

Jul 14 @ 3:14 PM ET
Yup he will be a winger... At his best, I would project him somewhere in the area of inbetween Ladd and Brouwer when they were Hawks. a good 3rd liner with the ability to play up the 2nd line, but probably not more.

Brouwer leveled off and Ladd obviously went on to bigger and better things, but there is nothing to say McNeill couldn't do the same thing given a shot.

Then again, he could turn out to be another Kyle Beach.

- gnosox1986


No.

McNeill has a much better attitude than Beach. McNeill wants to succeed. He'll make it to the show someday. Beach won't.
ArlingtonRob
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 230 years was a good run, IL
Joined: 01.20.2012

Jul 14 @ 3:15 PM ET
Toews isn't 4 million per year better than Bergeron

He's better, not 4 million better

- RoloTahmasee


I would agree with you...but,

compensation and talent seldom have a linear relationship.

And if you don't like the T&K deals, just wait and see what happens across the NHL in the next several years.

Your head will explode.
ArlingtonRob
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 230 years was a good run, IL
Joined: 01.20.2012

Jul 14 @ 3:18 PM ET
Kevin Dineen to replace Kompon. Former Q teammate. Shocker. That's per espn.


He had a lot of success coaching the women's Olympic team and has prior HC experience. Could turn out to be a good guy to have behind the bench.

- z1990z


Would you expect Q to hire someone he can't stand?

No, you expect Q to hire someone who has ability, who he's comfortable working with, and who he actually likes.

I have no problem with the hire.

On to the next melodrama...
Beaver-Warrior
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: in my great and unmatched wisdom
Joined: 07.28.2011

Jul 14 @ 3:22 PM ET
Meyers? A big, slow white forward, I think. Don't remember the rest.
- StLBravesFan

That's my point, Bucks trade a hof'er for a whole lot of nothing. Chances are IF Kaner got traded, odds are that's what the Hawks would get in return. A whole lot of nothing.
KingB
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 05.24.2011

Jul 14 @ 3:24 PM ET
No.

McNeill has a much better attitude than Beach. McNeill wants to succeed. He'll make it to the show someday. Beach won't.

- EKolb13


McNeill, at this point, does everything well and trains hard but there is no 'wow' factor. To his benefit, Mark looks like he could be a bigger Ben Smith.
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