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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: The Cap Conundrum
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L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 15 @ 1:18 PM ET
Stamkos
Crosby
Toews
Weber
Doughty
Datsyuk
Getzlaf
Tavares
Karlsson
Malkin

- RoloTahmasee


These types of lists are difficult to do because of two main factors: it's subjective and the players are at different points in their careers.

It's subjective because people prefer certain types of players over others and just have different criteria from which they judge players. Someone might think goals are most important while others think defensive two way guys are the best. Neither is objectively correct, and that's why it's a team sport: most teams want a balance of types of players. For instance, I think Stammer is pretty even with Kane from a pure skill level perspective, their expertise are just in different areas. Stammer is a better pure goal scorer and Kane being a better playmaker. They're both good at the other too, of course, but that's the area they excel at the most. Who someone thinks is better is dependent on which skill they prefer and that's not exactly objective.

As for the second point, there needs to be a caveat that you're either talking about them at their best (which isn't fair because some may not have reached their best like Tavares or even Kane himself) or you do a direct comparison as they are now (which means you have to distance them from some of their past prowess). So yeah, maybe Datsyuk in his prime, maybe Tavares in a few years. Comparing defensemen and forwards is an useless exercise because the parallels for worthwhile evaluation are just lacking.


Edit: I need to try to be less long winded...
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 15 @ 1:20 PM ET
Lots of reasons: coaching, the AHL-only veterans are not as good as those of other teams and, yes, the prospects are a bit overrated.
- John Jaeckel


Overrated by whom? The fans, maybe/probably, but most reports from outside the fans tend to rank the Hawks prospect pool in the top 10 of the league.
Beaver-Warrior
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: in my great and unmatched wisdom
Joined: 07.28.2011

Jul 15 @ 1:54 PM ET
Overrated by whom? The fans, maybe/probably, but most reports from outside the fans tend to rank the Hawks prospect pool in the top 10 of the league.
- L_B_R


You're about to be called a kool-aide drinker in 10 seconds,9,8,7.......
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 15 @ 1:56 PM ET
Lots of reasons: coaching, the AHL-only veterans are not as good as those of other teams and, yes, the prospects are a bit overrated.
- John Jaeckel


It seems the Hawks have a lot of good prospects, but:

Forwards - except for TT, have not heard any of those here that watch them (Eli primarily) say that any are potential top 6 - seems like the rest (and the best of the rest) are bottom liners or depth.

A little better on the blue line, perhaps - but not hearing about any top-pairing prospects - a lot of 4/5/6/7s out there.
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Jul 15 @ 2:10 PM ET
It seems the Hawks have a lot of good prospects, but:

Forwards - except for TT, have not heard any of those here that watch them (Eli primarily) say that any are potential top 6 - seems like the rest (and the best of the rest) are bottom liners or depth.

A little better on the blue line, perhaps - but not hearing about any top-pairing prospects - a lot of 4/5/6/7s out there.

- StLBravesFan

The minors generally supply bottom 6 forwards, 2nd and 3rd pairing defensemen and role players. Most of the top players on any given team make their way directly to the big club from their Junior or College teams. So long as Rockford develops and graduates complimentary and role players the farm is doing it's job. Top 6 players and star players , like Duncan Keith being developed in the minors is a bonus.
faustus1500
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Decatur, IL
Joined: 07.16.2010

Jul 15 @ 2:14 PM ET
Overrated by whom? The fans, maybe/probably, but most reports from outside the fans tend to rank the Hawks prospect pool in the top 10 of the league.
- L_B_R


It could be based on an aggretate basis. You can have a bunch of mediocre prospects and still be considered having a good talent pool.
tomcat24
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Gomer's Pyle, IL
Joined: 06.04.2012

Jul 15 @ 2:14 PM ET
I know it was kicked around earlier in the comments about Sharp+ for Myers and people flipped saying "Sharp is better than Myers, why do that?". But to be honest, Myers would be a very good return, especially if we can dump other cap while at it... Say like Sharp, Versteep, Oduya, Rosival for Myers, Torrey Mitchell, and a Low prospect. Myers and Mitchell are both marginally cheaper than Versteeg and Sharp, and then you dump Oduya and Rosivals saleries out right.

That gives us 29/19/81, 20/Richards/88, and some combo of 11/28/65/Mitchell/16/Regin/Nordstrom on the Bottom 6 with 2/7, 4/Myers, Leddy/Clendening. That would be the best D Corp in the league by FAR. and it gives us CAP ROOM to even add if needed. Also, Myers would effectively replace Seabrook when his contract is up and Johns can come into the roster as a replacement to the bottom 4 as opposed to having to "replace seabs".

- gnosox1986
i
I always liked myers. It is tough being one of the main go-to guys on D on a bad Sabre team. He loves jumping into holes to create offense. The problem is that huge cap hit. What is it? Over 5 almost 6? Even trading those guys you mention I can't see us taking on another high cap hit. He would be a good return if he wasn't making so much. We need young guys back for sharp either on ELCs or ready to make the jump to the bigs. Sabres have a lot of young talent, though
gnosox1986
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: FL
Joined: 01.25.2012

Jul 15 @ 2:23 PM ET
i
I always liked myers. It is tough being one of the main go-to guys on D on a bad Sabre team. He loves jumping into holes to create offense. The problem is that huge cap hit. What is it? Over 5 almost 6? Even trading those guys you mention I can't see us taking on another high cap hit. He would be a good return if he wasn't making so much. We need young guys back for sharp either on ELCs or ready to make the jump to the bigs. Sabres have a lot of young talent, though

- tomcat24


His cap hit is 5.5M (400K less than Sharp, also less than Seabrook which is why i mentioned him as a seabrook replacement going forward). You suggest we get ELC type guys for sharp. If we can get Myers, we could (in the future) deal Seabrook for that type of return and use myers in Seabrook's role. I mean he really isn't making "that" much. His remaining contract is the same length and price as the Orpik contract. He is WORLDS better than Orpik (granted that might now be the worst contract in the league, but still).

I was just comparing it to the idea of we need to move out $$$ and right now, most people i know would be happy dealing Rosy/Oduya for a bag of puck and mid-low picks... that doesnt do anything to the roster. This would atleast have the potential to impact the roster.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 15 @ 2:26 PM ET
The minors generally supply bottom 6 forwards, 2nd and 3rd pairing defensemen and role players. Most of the top players on any given team make their way directly to the big club from their Junior or College teams. So long as Rockford develops and graduates complimentary and role players the farm is doing it's job. Top 6 players and star players , like Duncan Keith being developed in the minors is a bonus.
- paulr


Hasn't the college player as a factor more important than the minor league team (since they're supplying the better players) been a relatively recent phenomenon?

Are there really that many 19 years olds coming directly into the league, let alone in top-6 positions?

And - who in the college ranks drafted by the Hawks is projected at top 6 - besides, of course, Hayes?
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Jul 15 @ 2:38 PM ET
Hasn't the college player as a factor more important than the minor league team (since they're supplying the better players) been a relatively recent phenomenon?

Are there really that many 19 years olds coming directly into the league, let alone in top-6 positions?

And - who in the college ranks drafted by the Hawks is projected at top 6 - besides, of course, Hayes?

- StLBravesFan

Lets look at the Hawks roster.

Toews - direct to NHL
Kane - direct to NHL
Hossa - direct to NHL
Sharp - Minors
Saad - direct to NHL
Seabrook - - direct to NHL
Keith - Minors
Baaaaaaannerman!
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 05.05.2009

Jul 15 @ 2:46 PM ET
Reading this blog from 30,000 feet and commenting only occassionally, you truly get a sense of how much people think they know about talent evaluation and you realize how little people actually know. And that's just a function of talent evaluation, not a funtion of people thinking they know it all. This is no slam on any Hawk fan, as you are my brothers... However, people claiming so-and-so will never amount to anything, or will be a career AHL'er, etc., must realize that men that have made their entire lives and careers out of evaluating talent at the NHL level get these types of calls wrong more than they get them right. That is, for every Toews, there's 10 Evan Bropheys. Moral of the story, with all due respect, is to just sit back and enjoy the ride. Keeping your two top forwards for the rest of their careers sure beats seeing guys like Roenick being traded because the front office didn't want to pony up and pay market value. The rest will fall into place, or it won't, and nobody here is going to lose a job over any of these decisions or evaluations of talent. Hopefully we will see the TT situation play out similarly to the Saad situation, who as you will all recall was derisively called "Jesus" and has proven to, in fact, have been worthy of the hype and then some.

For fans of other teams, you really can go pound sand. My favorite quote, two cups ago, was from a fan of either the Leafs or Flyers who stated, in such a cocksure manner you'd think he was predicting the sunrise, that no team with Patty Kane on it would ever win a Cup. He who laughs last, laughs loudest, is a saying that comes to mind in this regard.

Now, as someone here astutely pointed out, the discussion from other teams' fans has gone from how we'd lose Kane to Buffalo, where he could be "the man" and step out of Toews enormous shadow, to how we will never be able to field another Cup contender because of the Wonder Twins' bloated contracts, even though the NATIONAL pundits all think it was in line with what they should have received and that both actually left money on the table. This is so similar to the comments from other teams' fans after the 2010 Cup where our window was surely closed due to the cap and the necessary purge. I don't remember too many people eating crow after 2013's Cup.

I don't trust or like everything Stan Bowman has done, but I do see the makings of a potential dynasty on West Madison and as a long-suffering Hawks' fan that is a welcome relief from the days we hoped a Joe Murphy aquisition would put us over the top!

Peace my friends. Enjoy your summers and look forward to what is in the works. Hopefully it won't disappoint, but if it does, just look up in the rafters at those two shiny new banners and remember what it was like watching our boys skate around with a Cup many of us thought we'd never see in our lifetimes!
Baaaaaaannerman!
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 05.05.2009

Jul 15 @ 2:50 PM ET
Lies! Blasphemy!
- BlazinMike


Most things are either overrated or underrated as people rarely hit the nail on the head with their evaluations. Take solace in the fact that some guys that are highly thought of won't pan out and others who are afterthoughts (see, e.g., Andrew Shaw) will surprise pleasantly.
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Jul 15 @ 2:55 PM ET
i
I always liked myers. It is tough being one of the main go-to guys on D on a bad Sabre team. He loves jumping into holes to create offense. The problem is that huge cap hit. What is it? Over 5 almost 6? Even trading those guys you mention I can't see us taking on another high cap hit. He would be a good return if he wasn't making so much. We need young guys back for sharp either on ELCs or ready to make the jump to the bigs. Sabres have a lot of young talent, though

- tomcat24


Ya, it's tough being a go to guy on any team when you can't make a 10 foot tape to tape pass to your D partner because you hit him in the skate blade instead. You might want to go back and watch Team Canada at the World Championships this year - Myers was absolutely brutal. In fact he stunk, just like he did all season for the Sabres and last year and every year except his rookie season.

If there ever was a guy who is overpaid and should be in the AHL developing his game, its Tyler Myers. Eklund is blowing smoke up everybody's butt about the Hawks being interested. Sure they are - for Vertseeg and any other expensive bow-wows Bowman wants to dump.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 15 @ 3:13 PM ET
You're about to be called a kool-aide drinker in 10 seconds,9,8,7.......
- Beaver-Warrior


As long as it can be Purplesaurus Rex flavor.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 15 @ 3:16 PM ET
Lets look at the Hawks roster.

Toews - direct to NHL
Kane - direct to NHL
Hossa - direct to NHL
Sharp - Minors
Saad - direct to NHL
Seabrook - - direct to NHL
Keith - Minors

- paulr


Looks like you are more correct than not - surprised at how many make the jump from juniors (or the foreign equivalent) to the NHL.

Still don't see that many college players coming in directly at top-6 levels.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 15 @ 3:23 PM ET
It could be based on an aggretate basis. You can have a bunch of mediocre prospects and still be considered having a good talent pool.
- faustus1500


Well, I was definitely talking about it in an aggregate sense as the world pool implies all the prospects as a group. I just think there really should be a distinction between saying that some individual prospects are overrated by fans (and possibly experts) and the idea that the overall pool of prospects is still considered to be good. I agree on the former but contest the latter opinion.
BearsnHawks
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: TX
Joined: 07.01.2012

Jul 15 @ 3:44 PM ET
I know it was kicked around earlier in the comments about Sharp+ for Myers and people flipped saying "Sharp is better than Myers, why do that?". But to be honest, Myers would be a very good return, especially if we can dump other cap while at it... Say like Sharp, Versteep, Oduya, Rosival for Myers, Torrey Mitchell, and a Low prospect. Myers and Mitchell are both marginally cheaper than Versteeg and Sharp, and then you dump Oduya and Rosivals saleries out right.

That gives us 29/19/81, 20/Richards/88, and some combo of 11/28/65/Mitchell/16/Regin/Nordstrom on the Bottom 6 with 2/7, 4/Myers, Leddy/Clendening. That would be the best D Corp in the league by FAR. and it gives us CAP ROOM to even add if needed. Also, Myers would effectively replace Seabrook when his contract is up and Johns can come into the roster as a replacement to the bottom 4 as opposed to having to "replace seabs".

- gnosox1986


He can not replace Seabrook, he has very little to no physicality. He also does not do well in his own end. I compare him to a bigger/slower Leddy+.
FourFeathers773
Joined: 12.02.2011

Jul 15 @ 3:49 PM ET
Who wins this final four if it was division vs division with these lineup?

Atlantic: C- Stamkos, LW - Pacioretty, RW - Kessel, D Chara, D Subban, G Rask
Metro: C- Crosby, LW- Kunitz, RW- Ovechkin, D McDonagh, D Martin, G Lungfist
Central: C- Toews, LW- Benn, RW- Kane, D Keith, D Weber, G Rinne
Pacific: C Kopitar, LW Hall, RW- Perry, D Doughty, D OEL, G Quick


I... have no clue
tomcat24
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Gomer's Pyle, IL
Joined: 06.04.2012

Jul 15 @ 3:53 PM ET
His cap hit is 5.5M (400K less than Sharp, also less than Seabrook which is why i mentioned him as a seabrook replacement going forward). You suggest we get ELC type guys for sharp. If we can get Myers, we could (in the future) deal Seabrook for that type of return and use myers in Seabrook's role. I mean he really isn't making "that" much. His remaining contract is the same length and price as the Orpik contract. He is WORLDS better than Orpik (granted that might now be the worst contract in the league, but still).

I was just comparing it to the idea of we need to move out $$$ and right now, most people i know would be happy dealing Rosy/Oduya for a bag of puck and mid-low picks... that doesnt do anything to the roster. This would atleast have the potential to impact the roster.

- gnosox1986

Yeah that's a good point. Of course I'm sure all they do now is move rozy and versteeg for 7th round picks just to do the bare minimum to get Right under the cap now. And next season when we are in really bad spot trade sharp and seabrook for less of a return than Buff and Ladd got. I do like your thinking
BearsnHawks
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: TX
Joined: 07.01.2012

Jul 15 @ 3:54 PM ET
The minors generally supply bottom 6 forwards, 2nd and 3rd pairing defensemen and role players. Most of the top players on any given team make their way directly to the big club from their Junior or College teams. So long as Rockford develops and graduates complimentary and role players the farm is doing it's job. Top 6 players and star players , like Duncan Keith being developed in the minors is a bonus.
- paulr


Top players that spent half a season to 2 seasons in the AHL who have been or are on the Hawks:
Keith, Saad, Jammer, Sharp, Buff, Brouwer, Crawford, Niemi and Ladd are top 4/6 good talents.
Bickell, Smith, And Kruger are all young players with lots of upside or are used in the top 6 at certain times.
Tugboat
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jul 15 @ 3:54 PM ET
Reading this blog from 30,000 feet and commenting only occassionally, you truly get a sense of how much people think they know about talent evaluation and you realize how little people actually know. And that's just a function of talent evaluation, not a funtion of people thinking they know it all. This is no slam on any Hawk fan, as you are my brothers... However, people claiming so-and-so will never amount to anything, or will be a career AHL'er, etc., must realize that men that have made their entire lives and careers out of evaluating talent at the NHL level get these types of calls wrong more than they get them right. That is, for every Toews, there's 10 Evan Bropheys. Moral of the story, with all due respect, is to just sit back and enjoy the ride. Keeping your two top forwards for the rest of their careers sure beats seeing guys like Roenick being traded because the front office didn't want to pony up and pay market value. The rest will fall into place, or it won't, and nobody here is going to lose a job over any of these decisions or evaluations of talent. Hopefully we will see the TT situation play out similarly to the Saad situation, who as you will all recall was derisively called "Jesus" and has proven to, in fact, have been worthy of the hype and then some.

For fans of other teams, you really can go pound sand. My favorite quote, two cups ago, was from a fan of either the Leafs or Flyers who stated, in such a cocksure manner you'd think he was predicting the sunrise, that no team with Patty Kane on it would ever win a Cup. He who laughs last, laughs loudest, is a saying that comes to mind in this regard.

Now, as someone here astutely pointed out, the discussion from other teams' fans has gone from how we'd lose Kane to Buffalo, where he could be "the man" and step out of Toews enormous shadow, to how we will never be able to field another Cup contender because of the Wonder Twins' bloated contracts, even though the NATIONAL pundits all think it was in line with what they should have received and that both actually left money on the table. This is so similar to the comments from other teams' fans after the 2010 Cup where our window was surely closed due to the cap and the necessary purge. I don't remember too many people eating crow after 2013's Cup.

I don't trust or like everything Stan Bowman has done, but I do see the makings of a potential dynasty on West Madison and as a long-suffering Hawks' fan that is a welcome relief from the days we hoped a Joe Murphy aquisition would put us over the top!

Peace my friends. Enjoy your summers and look forward to what is in the works. Hopefully it won't disappoint, but if it does, just look up in the rafters at those two shiny new banners and remember what it was like watching our boys skate around with a Cup many of us thought we'd never see in our lifetimes!

- Baaaaaaannerman!


Great post!
tomcat24
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Gomer's Pyle, IL
Joined: 06.04.2012

Jul 15 @ 3:57 PM ET
Ya, it's tough being a go to guy on any team when you can't make a 10 foot tape to tape pass to your D partner because you hit him in the skate blade instead. You might want to go back and watch Team Canada at the World Championships this year - Myers was absolutely brutal. In fact he stunk, just like he did all season for the Sabres and last year and every year except his rookie season.

If there ever was a guy who is overpaid and should be in the AHL developing his game, its Tyler Myers. Eklund is blowing smoke up everybody's butt about the Hawks being interested. Sure they are - for Vertseeg and any other expensive bow-wows Bowman wants to dump.

- RickJ

I didn't watch any of that. That is too bad. I actually think he came on a little towards the end of the season this year. He isn't physical but he is big and can break up stuff with his reach. He is good, though and knowing when to join the rush and find openings. His passing isn't the best for sure
Quicky72
Joined: 08.31.2013

Jul 15 @ 3:59 PM ET
Reading this blog from 30,000 feet and commenting only occassionally, you truly get a sense of how much people think they know about talent evaluation and you realize how little people actually know. And that's just a function of talent evaluation, not a funtion of people thinking they know it all. This is no slam on any Hawk fan, as you are my brothers... However, people claiming so-and-so will never amount to anything, or will be a career AHL'er, etc., must realize that men that have made their entire lives and careers out of evaluating talent at the NHL level get these types of calls wrong more than they get them right. That is, for every Toews, there's 10 Evan Bropheys. Moral of the story, with all due respect, is to just sit back and enjoy the ride. Keeping your two top forwards for the rest of their careers sure beats seeing guys like Roenick being traded because the front office didn't want to pony up and pay market value. The rest will fall into place, or it won't, and nobody here is going to lose a job over any of these decisions or evaluations of talent. Hopefully we will see the TT situation play out similarly to the Saad situation, who as you will all recall was derisively called "Jesus" and has proven to, in fact, have been worthy of the hype and then some.

For fans of other teams, you really can go pound sand. My favorite quote, two cups ago, was from a fan of either the Leafs or Flyers who stated, in such a cocksure manner you'd think he was predicting the sunrise, that no team with Patty Kane on it would ever win a Cup. He who laughs last, laughs loudest, is a saying that comes to mind in this regard.

Now, as someone here astutely pointed out, the discussion from other teams' fans has gone from how we'd lose Kane to Buffalo, where he could be "the man" and step out of Toews enormous shadow, to how we will never be able to field another Cup contender because of the Wonder Twins' bloated contracts, even though the NATIONAL pundits all think it was in line with what they should have received and that both actually left money on the table. This is so similar to the comments from other teams' fans after the 2010 Cup where our window was surely closed due to the cap and the necessary purge. I don't remember too many people eating crow after 2013's Cup.

I don't trust or like everything Stan Bowman has done, but I do see the makings of a potential dynasty on West Madison and as a long-suffering Hawks' fan that is a welcome relief from the days we hoped a Joe Murphy aquisition would put us over the top!

Peace my friends. Enjoy your summers and look forward to what is in the works. Hopefully it won't disappoint, but if it does, just look up in the rafters at those two shiny new banners and remember what it was like watching our boys skate around with a Cup many of us thought we'd never see in our lifetimes!

- Baaaaaaannerman!


What he said
ikeane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Jacksonville, FL
Joined: 11.04.2005

Jul 15 @ 4:05 PM ET
His cap hit is 5.5M (400K less than Sharp, also less than Seabrook which is why i mentioned him as a seabrook replacement going forward). You suggest we get ELC type guys for sharp. If we can get Myers, we could (in the future) deal Seabrook for that type of return and use myers in Seabrook's role. I mean he really isn't making "that" much. His remaining contract is the same length and price as the Orpik contract. He is WORLDS better than Orpik (granted that might now be the worst contract in the league, but still).

I was just comparing it to the idea of we need to move out $$$ and right now, most people i know would be happy dealing Rosy/Oduya for a bag of puck and mid-low picks... that doesnt do anything to the roster. This would atleast have the potential to impact the roster.

- gnosox1986


Would a Seabrook for Myers deal be a possibility? Blasphamy i know. Gains a younger big body dman on smaller cap hit, throw in versteeg. Roszival and Sharp would never waive their nmc for buffalo imo. Not sure if the Sabres would do it but would like something along the lines of versteeg, seabrook, leddy for myers, hackett and a 2nd. Sign prosser for 3rd pairing and bring brookbank back as #7. Just a thought on a stormy Florida day
[url]
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Jul 15 @ 4:07 PM ET
Who wins this final four if it was division vs division with these lineup?

Atlantic: C- Stamkos, LW - Pacioretty, RW - Kessel, D Chara, D Subban, G Rask
Metro: C- Crosby, LW- Kunitz, RW- Ovechkin, D McDonagh, D Martin, G Lungfist
Central: C- Toews, LW- Benn, RW- Kane, D Keith, D Weber, G Rinne
Pacific: C Kopitar, LW Hall, RW- Perry, D Doughty, D OEL, G Quick


I... have no clue

- FourFeathers773


Well, swap out Krieder for LW in Metro. I'd still bet on one of the lineups from the West, but Atlantic is solid.
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