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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: The High Price Of Success
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bogiedoc
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: VA
Joined: 09.27.2011

Jul 8 @ 3:34 PM ET
If the number for 19/88 is $10.8 X 2 = $21.6, tagging rules might temporarily delay re-signing Saad and Kruger:

Without moving anyone out right now, Hawks have $24.2 left for 2015-16; counting Toews and Kane, they only have $2.6 left - maybe not enough for the increases for the two of them.

- StLBravesFan


No wonder all the Sharp chatter....his red jersey days are numbered...most likely next summer. Seems a bit late to move him now!
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 8 @ 3:36 PM ET
Fair argument.

But Bowman was a cap guy prior to ascending to GM. So to say he had a hand in finding and developing ANY talent prior to 2009 is just really far-fetched.

Unless I’m mistaken, his two biggest trades have been Frolik for Skille and Oduya. Those are not “big “ trades.

Free agency? Brookbank? Richards?

Those are not big moves.

The truth is, he has had to do very little because he inherited so much. This is just not debatable if you hold it up against the history of NHL GMs.

Now, it appears the 2011 draft (at the very least) could be one of the better drafts in recent NHL history as far as one club. There is great potential there and already great development (Saad, Shaw). And he gets credit for that along with Norm McIver and a significant organizational commitment to scouting since about 2008-09.

But to give him more than marginal credit for the on-ice success, especially prior to 2013, is just kind of a stretch, if not flat wrong. The core was THERE. And it really preceded him.

Since then, he’s made small moves. And there is a fair argument that’s been all that’s needed. The efficacy of the 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 drafts remains to be seen and much rides on it. 2010 is already looking more and more like a pretty poor showing (Hayes, Rensfeldt, Simpson, Holl, Johns—ok, maybe—Nordstrom, meh, ok) but he had a LOT of picks. 2011, as I said, could be a great class. 2012? 2013? 2014? Who knows. But my point is, they will now need to have a lot of hits from those classes, and those guys will not get long development curves.

- John Jaeckel


Another reason he hasn't done any "big moves" is because he has always been right up against the cap, and had to manage that more than making a splash with trades or free agency.

If you have no cap space, you have no flexibility to get much done other than ELC guys or older cheap players trying for one more spark.
captainserious
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.24.2010

Jul 8 @ 3:37 PM ET
Fair argument.

But Bowman was a cap guy prior to ascending to GM. So to say he had a hand in finding and developing ANY talent prior to 2009 is just really far-fetched.

Unless I’m mistaken, his two biggest trades have been Frolik for Skille and Oduya. Those are not “big “ trades.

Free agency? Brookbank? Richards?

Those are not big moves.

The truth is, he has had to do very little because he inherited so much. This is just not debatable if you hold it up against the history of NHL GMs.

Now, it appears the 2011 draft (at the very least) could be one of the better drafts in recent NHL history as far as one club. There is great potential there and already great development (Saad, Shaw). And he gets credit for that along with Norm McIver and a significant organizational commitment to scouting since about 2008-09.

But to give him more than marginal credit for the on-ice success, especially prior to 2013, is just kind of a stretch, if not flat wrong. The core was THERE. And it really preceded him.

Since then, he’s made small moves. And there is a fair argument that’s been all that’s needed. The efficacy of the 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 drafts remains to be seen and much rides on it. 2010 is already looking more and more like a pretty poor showing (Hayes, Rensfeldt, Simpson, Holl, Johns—ok, maybe—Nordstrom, meh, ok) but he had a LOT of picks. 2011, as I said, could be a great class. 2012? 2013? 2014? Who knows. But my point is, they will now need to have a lot of hits from those classes, and those guys will not get long development curves.

- John Jaeckel


I just think that more people should be more in the middle when it comes to Stan...but hey, we all have our own opinions....And yes, Frolik and Oduya were smaller moves, but they paid huge dividends in the end...didn't they? And isn't that what should be looked at? I mean it's what I look at...And I'm not sure that the Hawks walk away with Cup if Stan doesn't bring over Zus...people bash the poop outta Zus, but he was very good during the Cup run of 13, his tying goal in game 6 against the Wings...HUGE....his shorty against Boston, and goes flying into the wall....HUGE! And even though it was a small move, it paid off greatly
RobitailleFAN20
Los Angeles Kings
Location: LA Kings fan since 1996. Favorite palyers Luc Robitaille & Rob Blake, CA
Joined: 06.22.2014

Jul 8 @ 3:37 PM ET
Are you their agent?

Williams will be looking next year at possibly his last contract. He will probably look to get the most he can.

If Kopitar performs as well next year as this year he will be using Toews deal as his comp. Count on it.

If anyone was going to give a home town discount it would be Kane and Toews. They are playing for an original 6 franchise with a huge marketing apparatus. Unlike LA, being in Chicago with a winner makes the 2 of them significant money in endorsements. The LA market barely even recognizes the Kings. No offense, that is just fact. More competing ad draws in LA.

We haven't actually seen the $10.8m number confirmed yet. I hope it is wrong or there is a large increase coming in the cap under the radar.

- tredbrta

This is a given but I really don't think it'll be higher than 9Million/yr
puckhog
Joined: 08.29.2008

Jul 8 @ 3:40 PM ET
Geez...Brown at 5.875M thru 2022 doesn't really seem like a discount. I'm not familiar with Williams' contract/discussions at the time. Stoll, I'll give you that. I just checked capgeek and his AAV went down on the last contract.
- eburgio


Quick is at a discount. Brown discounted -08, Kopitar discounted in -09, even Regehr discounted...he would have gotten more if he took the UFA route. Penner, at the time, discounted.

Should Kane & Co. discount again? I don't think so. They brought 2 cups and it's time to pay up. They deserve it and this is the contract to pay for their fortune. You can't always judge a salary on what's to come, you have to include what was done...and this is one of those. Same with Brown.
tredbrta
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.30.2012

Jul 8 @ 3:42 PM ET
All good points, but to my point, now is when we see how good this FO is.

The argument that Stan Bowman deserves more than very marginal credit prior to 2009 is really not even worth responding to. He inherited a boatload of talent in 2009. Has had a lot of short putts since then. Anyone doubting that needs an NHL history lesson.

Now, we start to see how good this FO is at maintaining excellence as Detroit did for so many years. You hit on Guys like Datsyuk and Zetterberg in rounds 5-7, Franzen in the 3rd I believe, and you really can do it. But those are HUGE hits and the Wings had the luxury of time to develop those guys. The Hawks won't.

- John Jaeckel


How much time did Saad and Shaw spend off the NHL roster? Saad went back to Juniors but really spent no time in Rockford and Shaw spent a half season or so there. They were recognized almost immediately as NHL ready and on the roster.

My point is that is not happening with current prospect chain. That may be because there are less spots open or more likely it could be because most just aren't the talents Shaw and Saad were. We will see on TT but I agree with John that the system may be overvalued at the moment.

This is one of the reasons I think Bowman should package some of those pieces more often. He had the right idea with the Olsen/Hayes deal. He just brought back the wrong piece in Versteeg. His pro scouting failed him there but so did his judgement.
spanky
Joined: 07.12.2010

Jul 8 @ 3:43 PM ET
I personally would hold off on getting a deal done with Toews &Kane. The Bowman' s should tell them nicely that we are unable to go higher than 9 million. Let them wait until the 2015 cap figures come in if the boys insist on getting more.
ArlingtonRob
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 230 years was a good run, IL
Joined: 01.20.2012

Jul 8 @ 3:44 PM ET
This is a given but I really don't think it'll be higher than 9Million/yr
- RobitailleFAN20


That's what most of us said about Toews and Kane earlier this year.
BlazinMike
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 05.08.2013

Jul 8 @ 3:46 PM ET
I just wanna know who is getting traded to get under the cap. I know theres still time left, but just get it the (frank) over with.
tredbrta
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.30.2012

Jul 8 @ 3:46 PM ET
Almost $11 M each, I don't see it working out well. That is too much cap for 2 players. Granted, I would love to have the potential problem of paying Toews & Kane that much.

It makes it that much harder to win though as those two players can't be on the ice at all times, and the rest of the roster is going to have holes/youth. (especially with potential injuries)

If it were me, I would pick the player that means more to the team (Toews) and try and trade Kane for a huge haul. If all of your eggs are in one basket, it could be great. It could also be very, very messy.

I know, I am a Blues fan. We have never won, I know nothing.

- carcus


Armstrong took solid steps to address the speed issue at forward.

We all knew you were a paper tiger last year. This year, not so sure. If Hitch adapts - and I think Armstrong is telling him he has to with the players he has added - then you may be for real. Goalie looks like the only question mark now.

Also, moving Backes to wing is going to give him even more chances to run Kane and Toews. With the Hawks current roster who responds?
RobitailleFAN20
Los Angeles Kings
Location: LA Kings fan since 1996. Favorite palyers Luc Robitaille & Rob Blake, CA
Joined: 06.22.2014

Jul 8 @ 3:47 PM ET
That's what most of us said about Toews and Kane earlier this year.
- ArlingtonRob

Haha ok I'll give you that one.

I just can't see DL doing anymore than that. We'll see.
tredbrta
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.30.2012

Jul 8 @ 3:51 PM ET
Also another thing about the hawk prospect pool. They get a large amount of people who could really be good depth players and very rarely take a guy based on top line potential. They seem to like safe bets for prospects. Instead of hoping they have the next best thing they look for contributors. By having a lot of them, they are guaranteed win on at least a few of these guys. Law of averages and what not.
- Walky


That is about where they draft. If they could parlay a core piece like Sharp for apackage including a high pick/s I think they could be counted on to take a top 6 player.
blackhawk24
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Lake in the Hills, IL
Joined: 06.06.2009

Jul 8 @ 3:58 PM ET
NOW McDonough gets involved - and probably says no - 75% of the marketing effort is built around the two of them, in tandem - not sure McD or Rocky would sign off.

Meddling? Maybe - yeah - but this is an unusual situation. Trying to trade Crosby in Pittsburgh would have similar input from Lemieux.

- StLBravesFan

I would hope his meddling would result in contracts that would look more along the lines of $75M/8yrs each.

I know I'm in the minority on this one but both guys gotta know that a $10.8M cap hit for each of them likely results in limited cup opportunity for '16 and '17. Sure, it's in the player's best interest to get what they can get, I totally understand that. In the spirit of what Hammer did on his deal, I sure cross my fingers that 19/88's cap kit will be more like $9.3M and not $10.8M. I'm not going to assume any cap growth like 8-10% YoY for the seasons ending in '16 and '17.
tredbrta
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.30.2012

Jul 8 @ 3:59 PM ET
I don't know. I like to think he knew what he was doing. He and chia said as much when he signed it.

At the time I thought if he wanted to wait and test the market he would have easily. Gotten $7 - $7.5. And this yr maybe more with the season he had.

Every who knew anything knew that, but I remember people saying that was too much, like it was Crosby or Malkin money.

But players like Kopitar, Bergy, Toews, Jordan stall, Kesler, they are like antimatter to matter.

They take out the Crosby's, malkins, OVIs, etc., but most pick hats don't realize it.

I hope Krejic dosent get greedy, we do have two nhl ready centers in the AHL that will make the team, likely as wingers this year though.

What a bad problem to have, we have too many centers and that's after trading Seguin and peverly, lucky.

- JIwasinskiJr


I thought Bergeron's deal was a bargain when it was signed. Didn't Weiss sign around the same time with Detroit?

I think the Bruins end up losing Soderburg next year. Would be an awesome 2c here but no space.

nords21
Montreal Canadiens
Location: San Francisco, CA
Joined: 03.24.2014

Jul 8 @ 4:00 PM ET
Both players deserve it, my only concern if I were a Hawk fan is that it becomes similar the the Pittsburgh situation, in that Malkin and Crosby suck up so much cap space that their depth is an enormous weak point. When Crosby and Malkin dont perform, the team loses and often terribly. This will only be magnified in Chicago since currently the West is such a strong conference and the Central Division is almost without a doubt the toughest to play in.

Love watching these two play and hope to see them keep it rolling for years to come.
tredbrta
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.30.2012

Jul 8 @ 4:03 PM ET
With as weak as this month's draft supposedly is, I guess it makes sense to draft predominantly NCAA players. Perhaps the idea is that these kids can spend 3-4 seasons developing in college, giving the organization time to decide if they want them around or not instead of having to give out ELC's or taking up roster spots in the minors? This would also give the organization flexibility to keep some fringe veterans in Rockford, or take a chance on a diamond in the rough player from a European league.
- EKolb13


I think it is a great strategy. Sort of like having 2 AHL level farm teams. The problem is you could end up with several more Kevin Hayes situations.

I also like the fact the are actively signing college free agents like Carey and TVR. I just hope they can grab some of the higher end names like Folin down the line.
blackhawk24
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Lake in the Hills, IL
Joined: 06.06.2009

Jul 8 @ 4:04 PM ET
Quick is at a discount. Brown discounted -08, Kopitar discounted in -09, even Regehr discounted...he would have gotten more if he took the UFA route. Penner, at the time, discounted.

Should Kane & Co. discount again? I don't think so. They brought 2 cups and it's time to pay up. They deserve it and this is the contract to pay for their fortune. You can't always judge a salary on what's to come, you have to include what was done...and this is one of those. Same with Brown.

- puckhog

How is it a discount again? They signed their current deals before the 'Hawks won anything. The Wings were the defending champions, the 'guins were on the cusp and very little if anyone saw what was yet to come with Buff/Ladd/Bolly etc. A $6.3M cap hit starting on the 10/11 season was quite reasonable, a total of about 22% of the cap for the two of them for that first season.
golfbard
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: NY
Joined: 06.22.2007

Jul 8 @ 4:08 PM ET
I personally would hold off on getting a deal done with Toews &Kane. The Bowman' s should tell them nicely that we are unable to go higher than 9 million. Let them wait until the 2015 cap figures come in if the boys insist on getting more.
- spanky


Uh yea that'll work. You don't sign them now and then they go on to each have great years and perhaps win a Cup, by the time that number comes out, which as you saw this offseason was hours before free agency, then you will likely watch both of them walk out the door.
bwarner929
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.05.2014

Jul 8 @ 4:09 PM ET
I would hope his meddling would result in contracts that would look more along the lines of $75M/8yrs each.

I know I'm in the minority on this one but both guys gotta know that a $10.8M cap hit for each of them likely results in limited cup opportunity for '16 and '17. Sure, it's in the player's best interest to get what they can get, I totally understand that. In the spirit of what Hammer did on his deal, I sure cross my fingers that 19/88's cap kit will be more like $9.3M and not $10.8M. I'm not going to assume any cap growth like 8-10% YoY for the seasons ending in '16 and '17.

- blackhawk24


10-4, and I'm not sure you're in the minority. Most reasonable people understand that players should be allowed to be selfish in situations like this, and they're also getting pressure from the NHLPA to max out their deals to drive the market. The number still looks like 8yr/$80M to me.

We can only hope that the culture that Rocky and McD have tried to create around TEAM and ONE GOAL and FAMILY is more than just marketing, and that these players realize that they can't do it alone.

Although the NBA is a slightly different animal, #1 on the other side of the UC hallway is now feeling what it's like to carry a max contract and tie the hands of the FO to build a team around him. And the fans are starting to complain more loudly. Could the same thing happen with Hawks if the wins don't happen?
CaptainBlackhawk
Joined: 01.29.2010

Jul 8 @ 4:10 PM ET
I personally would hold off on getting a deal done with Toews &Kane. The Bowman' s should tell them nicely that we are unable to go higher than 9 million. Let them wait until the 2015 cap figures come in if the boys insist on getting more.
- spanky


This would be a nuclear bomb/worst case scenario. Doing that you certainly will lose one if not both of them.

Guess what? They'd get more than $9 mil on the open market. Easily.
CaptainBlackhawk
Joined: 01.29.2010

Jul 8 @ 4:13 PM ET
People. Why would these two take a 7.5-8 mil contract when they could go on the open market next offseason, choose the team they wish to play for, and get upwards of $10-10.5 mil. Simply to just stay in Chicago? Seriously?

Yes - over the span of a 6 year deal they are going to leave 15 mil on the table out of the generosity of their hearts. C'mon.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Jul 8 @ 4:14 PM ET
People. Why would these two take a 7.5-8 mil contract when they could go on the open market next offseason, choose the team they wish to play for, and get upwards of $10 mil. Simply to just stay in Chicago? Seriously?
- CaptainBlackhawk


By that logic you could make the argument that they would prefer to wait to sign until next year anyway, with even a $10.8 deal being smaller than what they could get waiting another year.

We probably have not heard the terms yet because there may or may not be other deals being worked, which could get mucked up when the other teams you are dealing with know what you are up against.
tredbrta
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.30.2012

Jul 8 @ 4:15 PM ET
Quick is at a discount. Brown discounted -08, Kopitar discounted in -09, even Regehr discounted...he would have gotten more if he took the UFA route. Penner, at the time, discounted.

Should Kane & Co. discount again? I don't think so. They brought 2 cups and it's time to pay up. They deserve it and this is the contract to pay for their fortune. You can't always judge a salary on what's to come, you have to include what was done...and this is one of those. Same with Brown.

- puckhog


Were the K/T deals discounts last time around?

No offense, but that is not a sound negotiating position for any team. Also, Brown signed an 8 year deal in 2013. How is his deal "one of those" if it was a discount?

A lot of LA people here trying to gloat over their cap situation.

They have a right to. I envy them.

It obviously leaves Lombardi plenty of cap space for big payments to O'Halloran and McCauley - the most important pieces to their cup run this year.
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Jul 8 @ 4:16 PM ET
People. Why would these two take a 7.5-8 mil contract when they could go on the open market next offseason, choose the team they wish to play for, and get upwards of $10-10.5 mil. Simply to just stay in Chicago? Seriously?

Yes - over the span of a 6 year deal they are going to leave 15 mil on the table out of the generosity of their hearts. C'mon.

- CaptainBlackhawk

Using this logic doesn't explain Hammers deal, just saying
tredbrta
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.30.2012

Jul 8 @ 4:23 PM ET
I personally would hold off on getting a deal done with Toews &Kane. The Bowman' s should tell them nicely that we are unable to go higher than 9 million. Let them wait until the 2015 cap figures come in if the boys insist on getting more.
- spanky


If you wait for the 2015 numbers they are going UFA or there will be bad blood.
Bowman holding out a little this summer though may make sense. K/T and Brisson clearly have the leverage. I would just take enough time to get those cap percentages into their minds.



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