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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: The High Price Of Success
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ArlingtonRob
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 230 years was a good run, IL
Joined: 01.20.2012

Jul 8 @ 2:59 PM ET
I realize I'll get slapped around for this but......

I feel great about Bergy's contract. $6.5 for eight starting this season.

I hope Krejic dosent get stupid and ask for $10.

- JIwasinskiJr


Bergeron is about 3 years older than Toews, but that's a great contract for a guy with a comparable skillset. Bergeron is signed until he's 36 so assuming he stays healthy the Bruins have a great one for the rest of his best years.
busmaster
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 08.06.2010

Jul 8 @ 2:59 PM ET
I think those of you who believe there enough prospects to replace Oduya, leddy, sharp, Kruger and Shaw are being (no offense) ignorant of history. Just looking at the hawks 9not to mention 29 other teams) the road is literally littered with the names of “top prospects” who didn’t make it.

Just taking the Hawks: Steve McCarthy, Adam Munro, Kyle Beach, Igor Makarov, Mikhail Yakubov, Jack Skille, Pavel Vorobiev, Jimmy Waite(!), Eric LeCompte, Geoff Peters, Matt Keith, Remy Royer, JY Leroux, Adam Berti, Mike Blunden, Shawn Lalonde, Akim Aliu, Billy Sweatt, Dan Delisle, Ludvig Rensfledt.

ALL hyped every bit as much as the current group of prospects. All big, fat flops.

Point is, the road to the NHL is tough and 3 out of every 4 guys drafted never make it at all, let alone become meaningful players.

I love Philip Danault, but does he become a nother Marcus Kruger . . . in 1-2 years? Probably not.

Will McNeill be another Shaw? Mmmm maybe, maybe not.

Who in the current pipeline replaces Leddy or Oduya? You better start lighting candles for Clendeining but all indications are he could be closer to Nathan Dempsey than he ever will be to Leddy or Oduya. Dahlbeck is a nice prospect, could be a 4-5 guy. Divided opinions on Johns.

You are just assuming too high a percentage of these guys are going to succeed and be good players. It almost NEVER works out that way.

- John Jaeckel


You don't have to assume that at all...

I'm hoping the math works out where we can keep Oduya. Sharp with his contract needs to be gone in 2015. Hoping TT will step up. Leddy couldn't get on the ice in the playoffs so whoever replaces him will at worse be a wash. And Between Danault, McNeil, Nordy, Hartman, and Morin its reasonable to think 1-2 guys will step up for Shaw and Kruger... Wouldn't it?
captainserious
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.24.2010

Jul 8 @ 3:02 PM ET

The argument that Stan Bowman deserves more than very marginal credit prior to 2009 is really not even worth responding to. He inherited a boatload of talent in 2009.

- John Jaeckel



And also after winning that Cup they turned over more than 50 percent of the roster....you gotta give him credit for finding the right guys...and I understand it wasn't just him, but they found the right mix of guys to go and win another Cup
tredbrta
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.30.2012

Jul 8 @ 3:02 PM ET
Kopitar might get a slight bump, but his large contract was signed prior to him really accomplishing anything. It was a pure gamble. Williams, on the other hand, is a veteran, and with age, will likely carry roughly the same contract. If Williams does get a raise, it'll be <$1/m per in addition to his current salary.
- Ersberg


Are you their agent?

Williams will be looking next year at possibly his last contract. He will probably look to get the most he can.

If Kopitar performs as well next year as this year he will be using Toews deal as his comp. Count on it.

If anyone was going to give a home town discount it would be Kane and Toews. They are playing for an original 6 franchise with a huge marketing apparatus. Unlike LA, being in Chicago with a winner makes the 2 of them significant money in endorsements. The LA market barely even recognizes the Kings. No offense, that is just fact. More competing ad draws in LA.

We haven't actually seen the $10.8m number confirmed yet. I hope it is wrong or there is a large increase coming in the cap under the radar.


captainserious
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.24.2010

Jul 8 @ 3:03 PM ET
Lol, send him to Edmonton ! We can watch him.
- HughJasscok


That would make you guys 2 for 2....C'mon Kevin...go to Edmonton!!
busmaster
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 08.06.2010

Jul 8 @ 3:04 PM ET
NEWS FLASH! ----Sort of---


ESPN Chicago ‏@ESPNChiHawks 3m

Hayes won't attend Hawks prospect camp http://es.pn/1oheHHT

- Beaver-Warrior


I'm hoping stanbo or someone just comes out and says it like it is... He's too much of an entitled wuss to want it, to take his lumps and pay his dues... Last loser to do that was Bill Sweatt... Look where he is now... Gets what he deserves.

Take the 2nd rounder and move on. No story here...
carcus
St Louis Blues
Location: #Winnington
Joined: 02.12.2009

Jul 8 @ 3:05 PM ET
Almost $11 M each, I don't see it working out well. That is too much cap for 2 players. Granted, I would love to have the potential problem of paying Toews & Kane that much.

It makes it that much harder to win though as those two players can't be on the ice at all times, and the rest of the roster is going to have holes/youth. (especially with potential injuries)

If it were me, I would pick the player that means more to the team (Toews) and try and trade Kane for a huge haul. If all of your eggs are in one basket, it could be great. It could also be very, very messy.

I know, I am a Blues fan. We have never won, I know nothing.
blackhawk24
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Lake in the Hills, IL
Joined: 06.06.2009

Jul 8 @ 3:06 PM ET
this year 19/88 will eat up 18.2% of the cap...with a 73-75mil cap next year Toews/Kane would eat up about 29% of the cap at 10.8mil each...I dont see how they can ask for such an huge portion of the salary cap for two players and expect that this team will not suffer as a result..that is the difference between 4 conference finals & 2 cups in 6 years and 1 stanley cup in six years(Pittsburgh is a great example of much too top heavy team).

9-9.5 mil would be around 23-25% of the cap and give the Hawks at least another solid depth player each year with that 3+mil in space

just for consideration...OVI makes only 13% of the cap & Crosby 12% and that is THIS YEAR..that % will fall with each rise in the Cap....Toews/Kane would each be more costly than OVI and Crosby individually

- EnzoD

Here's to hoping Kap is the tool many are making him out to be ( and I cannot refute that statement most of the time ). Couple in the fact he's teamed up with that pigskin-talking reject David-effing-Haugh, it could be argued, the $10.8M number is about $1.5M too high. Let's hope so.
bwarner929
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 06.05.2014

Jul 8 @ 3:07 PM ET
To be fair how many of those guys were drafted under the current system? How many of the current depth guys are bowman picks?
- Walky


Bowman may have assumed the GM role from Uncle Dale but has the Hawks' scouting organization also changed during that time? Wasn't Mark Kelly running the draft/scouting under Tallon as well? The GM may make pull the trigger at the draft but they're based on scouting reports.

I don't know the answer - that's why I'm asking.
Walky
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IA
Joined: 04.28.2011

Jul 8 @ 3:09 PM ET
Also another thing about the hawk prospect pool. They get a large amount of people who could really be good depth players and very rarely take a guy based on top line potential. They seem to like safe bets for prospects. Instead of hoping they have the next best thing they look for contributors. By having a lot of them, they are guaranteed win on at least a few of these guys. Law of averages and what not.
Walky
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IA
Joined: 04.28.2011

Jul 8 @ 3:10 PM ET
Bowman may have assumed the GM role from Uncle Dale but has the Hawks' scouting organization also changed during that time? Wasn't Mark Kelly running the draft/scouting under Tallon as well? The GM may make pull the trigger at the draft but they're based on scouting reports.

I don't know the answer - that's why I'm asking.

- bwarner929

I don't know for sure but the hawks definitely seem to have had a shift in their draft strategy since SB took over.
SaskHawkFan
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: SK
Joined: 05.18.2014

Jul 8 @ 3:11 PM ET
I don't know for sure but the hawks definitely seem to have had a shift in their draft strategy since SB took over.
- Walky


ya to the lets draft nothing but american ncaa players and swedes.
Beaver-Warrior
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: in my great and unmatched wisdom
Joined: 07.28.2011

Jul 8 @ 3:14 PM ET
I'm hoping stanbo or someone just comes out and says it like it is... He's too much of an entitled wuss to want it, to take his lumps and pay his dues... Last loser to do that was Bill Sweatt... Look where he is now... Gets what he deserves.

Take the 2nd rounder and move on. No story here...

- busmaster



The report that he is going to be non-show at camp just confirms what "five nines" of us felt was going on.

Bye-bye K.Hayes.
rollpards19
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Where ever doesn't get me hit, IL
Joined: 05.03.2012

Jul 8 @ 3:14 PM ET
By hockeysfuture? I used to write (covered the Hawks, Blues, Tampa, Preds and Canucks) for them, and I think they have the Hawks' overrated.
- John Jaeckel

It's fine that you disagree with them, because, hell, it's 18/19/20 year olds, and if anyone knew how they would all pan out they'd be running scouting and development for a team. The fact is its a crapshoot. I don't know, you don't know, they don't know. The point I think he's trying to make, is that while I don't think anyone but TT is going to be an impact player, it doesn't mean we shouldn't expect that 3rd pairing D and bottom 6 forwards can't be replaced.

You said in the blog, even the most optimistic of Hawks fans admitted they need tweaks to the bottom six, well those tweaks can't come all from free agents, it's just not how teams can operate in the current NHL. Well if the bottom of the roster certainly needs tweaks and upgrades, then maybe some first round prospects who play similar games to those they might be replacing will represent those tweaks and upgrades in the future. The point I see in most analysis of the Hawk's pool is the depth. Think of all the names you've listed, most seem to think most of the guys, to borrow a phrase, will be "something" in the NHL. Well, as hard as they work, that's pretty much what Shaw/Kruger/Smith are, something. Every team has them, some a little better, some a little worse, but every team has a guy that does what those guys do, and those players come from the draft. It'd be irresponsible I think to suggest that the group that added so much to the roster to win the cup in dominant fashion 2 years ago suddenly has no eye for developing talent.
JIwasinskiJr
Boston Bruins
Location: Ludlow, MA
Joined: 02.09.2011

Jul 8 @ 3:14 PM ET
That was an incredible contract. THAT was a home town discount. Bergeron should fire his agent.



- tredbrta


I don't know. I like to think he knew what he was doing. He and chia said as much when he signed it.

At the time I thought if he wanted to wait and test the market he would have easily. Gotten $7 - $7.5. And this yr maybe more with the season he had.

Every who knew anything knew that, but I remember people saying that was too much, like it was Crosby or Malkin money.

But players like Kopitar, Bergy, Toews, Jordan stall, Kesler, they are like antimatter to matter.

They take out the Crosby's, malkins, OVIs, etc., but most pick hats don't realize it.

I hope Krejic dosent get greedy, we do have two nhl ready centers in the AHL that will make the team, likely as wingers this year though.

What a bad problem to have, we have too many centers and that's after trading Seguin and peverly, lucky.
EKB13
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.18.2009

Jul 8 @ 3:19 PM ET
ya to the lets draft nothing but american ncaa players and swedes.
- SaskHawkFan


With as weak as this month's draft supposedly is, I guess it makes sense to draft predominantly NCAA players. Perhaps the idea is that these kids can spend 3-4 seasons developing in college, giving the organization time to decide if they want them around or not instead of having to give out ELC's or taking up roster spots in the minors? This would also give the organization flexibility to keep some fringe veterans in Rockford, or take a chance on a diamond in the rough player from a European league.
SimpleJack
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago , IL
Joined: 05.23.2013

Jul 8 @ 3:19 PM ET
You don't have to assume that at all...

I'm hoping the math works out where we can keep Oduya. Sharp with his contract needs to be gone in 2015. Hoping TT will step up. Leddy couldn't get on the ice in the playoffs so whoever replaces him will at worse be a wash. And Between Danault, McNeil, Nordy, Hartman, and Morin its reasonable to think 1-2 guys will step up for Shaw and Kruger... Wouldn't it?

- busmaster


This.

Why is it so hard to believe that a couple prospects might pan out to fill in 3rd/4th line roles? How come all of a sudden our prospect pool doesn't look so good? What happened between the time the rumored Toews and Kane deals were reported and now thats caused everyone to doubt our ability to fill in a couple depth forward roles with our prospects? Thats essentially all we've been doing for the past 3 years. Shaw, Saad, Kruger, Smith, etc... And now its impossible? We have so many options, which is while our prospect pool is so highly regarded. Not because of elite top end talent(only TT has projected top-6 potential), but because of the sheer number of options. Even if the norm happens and the majority of our prospects dont pan out, i still see no reason to lack faith that at least a couple will.

All depends on exactly who we need to replace heading into 2015-16. Im guessing it will be Sharp, Versteeg, one of either Leddy or Oduya, Rozsival, and one of either Shaw or Kruger(and obviously Richards). Losing Versteeg and Rozsival by that time wont really hurt, and will probly only help in clearing cap space. I think either Shaw or Kruger can be replaced by 1 of our prospects over the next 2 years. I also think we can find at least 1 legit option for our bottom D pairing out of our prospect options over that same time span. Gotta believe that Saad will improve, and that TT will further develop by 2015-16 and that will help sure up the losses of Sharp and Richards to the top 6. Make a few cheap, smart moves to bring in some replacements in other areas. All in all, im still hopeful.
rollpards19
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Where ever doesn't get me hit, IL
Joined: 05.03.2012

Jul 8 @ 3:21 PM ET
Almost $11 M each, I don't see it working out well. That is too much cap for 2 players. Granted, I would love to have the potential problem of paying Toews & Kane that much.

It makes it that much harder to win though as those two players can't be on the ice at all times, and the rest of the roster is going to have holes/youth. (especially with potential injuries)

If it were me, I would pick the player that means more to the team (Toews) and try and trade Kane for a huge haul. If all of your eggs are in one basket, it could be great. It could also be very, very messy.

I know, I am a Blues fan. We have never won, I know nothing.

- carcus

Hey carcus, hope everything is still going alright with your family. Obviously I'd love them to sign for less, but I think the route you suggest makes the team worse. Wasn't one of the biggest differences in that Hawks Blues series the Hawks top end skill? As currently constructed (not accounting for the future of guys like Schwartz and Tarasenko) didn't the Blues have a bunch of 1/2 line tweeners in Backes/Oshie/Steen/the young guys? What do you get for Kane, say a Schwartz, Berglund, 1st? Does StL even say yes to that deal? I'm of the opinion that when push comes to shove, its best players vs. best players in the playoffs. Most teams get a couple goals from line 4, a defenseman gets a lucky one, but just like the regular season, the best players score most of the goals, and when the Hawks have the potential to keep putting 2 of the best 12 or so forwards in the NHL, isn't that a major advantage for them? Hell, Pittsburgh keeps winning divisions on the back of literally two players, I'd much rather have the dollar than the four quarters, to steal a Bill Simmons analogy. Every has quarters, dollars (Kane) are game changers
tredbrta
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.30.2012

Jul 8 @ 3:25 PM ET
I'm not gonna come back and do anything when they sign but I do think when kopitars contract is up it'll be around 9 a year maybe less. That's just how Lombardi rolls with his players.

The comment was regarding which players on the kings have a discount.

Of course Kane and Toews would be higher on the open market so I don't really understand what you are trying to say.

- RobitailleFAN20


Kopitar may take that. God bless Lombardi if he can pull that off. Hammer took a huge discount based on the Niskanen deal. It seems the Euro players do it more often than the North Americans.

The teams who can convince those key pieces to take the real discounts will be the hard cap dynasties.

If Toews and Kane take $10.8m I think Bowman has failed to convince them. It is a discount to their value on the open market next year but not a comp to Getszlaf/Perry as a percentage of the cap at the time of their deals.
bogiedoc
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: VA
Joined: 09.27.2011

Jul 8 @ 3:27 PM ET
10.8 would be a catastrophe.


Come ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooonnnnnnn n 9.5 !!

- mrpaulish


I have pondered if the signing of Toews to these mega contracts with close to 1/3 of your cap going to 2 players suggests team of 4 feathers may be peaking, ironically as those 2 are in there prime. Can't win in this league with 2 studs and a bunch of whatevers....this is not the NBA.

You are right at least 3 important players are gone next year to accommodate those $$$ and Kruger, Saad and Leddy as RFA's.

There were reports Bowan was trying to extend Saad...makes sense don't want to have him have a mega years and then held up by either an offer sheet or arbitration.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jul 8 @ 3:27 PM ET
Hi JJ...hope you are doing good...I just can't agree with everything you said...and here is why...

Whenever someone goes to bash Tallon, or say: He didn't draft Buff,Smith drafted Keith...yadda yadda yadda...then someone always says: Well Tallon was a scout...or assistant GM or director of hockey operations bla bla bla

So....even though Stan inherited a good team, he was also there, I believe from 2001 working with the Blackhawks....so you can say he had his hand possibly in some earlier moves along with Tallon....

Also your line about his short putts since....Shaw wasn't a short putt....neither was Saad who everyone was avoiding because of certain ''issues''(not going to get into that whether they were true or not)....Also, Oduya wasn't really considered a shut down d-man with Jersey or the Jets...

I just think he deserves more credit than given...like when the Hawks go on a streak and win 8 in a row or lose 4 in a row...you are never as good or bad as you are when you are on a roll whether it be a good one or bad one...People either think Stan is the biggest genius in the NHL or they bash him(not saying you were bashing him)

- captainserious


Fair argument.

But Bowman was a cap guy prior to ascending to GM. So to say he had a hand in finding and developing ANY talent prior to 2009 is just really far-fetched.

Unless I’m mistaken, his two biggest trades have been Frolik for Skille and Oduya. Those are not “big “ trades.

Free agency? Brookbank? Richards?

Those are not big moves.

The truth is, he has had to do very little because he inherited so much. This is just not debatable if you hold it up against the history of NHL GMs.

Now, it appears the 2011 draft (at the very least) could be one of the better drafts in recent NHL history as far as one club. There is great potential there and already great development (Saad, Shaw). And he gets credit for that along with Norm McIver and a significant organizational commitment to scouting since about 2008-09.

But to give him more than marginal credit for the on-ice success, especially prior to 2013, is just kind of a stretch, if not flat wrong. The core was THERE. And it really preceded him.

Since then, he’s made small moves. And there is a fair argument that’s been all that’s needed. The efficacy of the 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 drafts remains to be seen and much rides on it. 2010 is already looking more and more like a pretty poor showing (Hayes, Rensfeldt, Simpson, Holl, Johns—ok, maybe—Nordstrom, meh, ok) but he had a LOT of picks. 2011, as I said, could be a great class. 2012? 2013? 2014? Who knows. But my point is, they will now need to have a lot of hits from those classes, and those guys will not get long development curves.

bogiedoc
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: VA
Joined: 09.27.2011

Jul 8 @ 3:28 PM ET
Almost $11 M each, I don't see it working out well. That is too much cap for 2 players. Granted, I would love to have the potential problem of paying Toews & Kane that much.

It makes it that much harder to win though as those two players can't be on the ice at all times, and the rest of the roster is going to have holes/youth. (especially with potential injuries)

If it were me, I would pick the player that means more to the team (Toews) and try and trade Kane for a huge haul. If all of your eggs are in one basket, it could be great. It could also be very, very messy.

I know, I am a Blues fan. We have never won, I know nothing.

- carcus


Most of us here don't know a damn thing either...we just think we do.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jul 8 @ 3:30 PM ET
It's fine that you disagree with them, because, hell, it's 18/19/20 year olds, and if anyone knew how they would all pan out they'd be running scouting and development for a team. The fact is its a crapshoot. I don't know, you don't know, they don't know. The point I think he's trying to make, is that while I don't think anyone but TT is going to be an impact player, it doesn't mean we shouldn't expect that 3rd pairing D and bottom 6 forwards can't be replaced.

You said in the blog, even the most optimistic of Hawks fans admitted they need tweaks to the bottom six, well those tweaks can't come all from free agents, it's just not how teams can operate in the current NHL. Well if the bottom of the roster certainly needs tweaks and upgrades, then maybe some first round prospects who play similar games to those they might be replacing will represent those tweaks and upgrades in the future. The point I see in most analysis of the Hawk's pool is the depth. Think of all the names you've listed, most seem to think most of the guys, to borrow a phrase, will be "something" in the NHL. Well, as hard as they work, that's pretty much what Shaw/Kruger/Smith are, something. Every team has them, some a little better, some a little worse, but every team has a guy that does what those guys do, and those players come from the draft. It'd be irresponsible I think to suggest that the group that added so much to the roster to win the cup in dominant fashion 2 years ago suddenly has no eye for developing talent.

- rollpards19


Not arguing. Nor am I saying they won't find players. But I think if you just assume they will, and they'll be as good as the proven guys they're intended to replace, history says the odds aren't high.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 8 @ 3:30 PM ET
I have pondered if the signing of Toews to these mega contracts with close to 1/3 of your cap going to 2 players suggests team of 4 feathers may be peaking, ironically as those 2 are in there prime. Can't win in this league with 2 studs and a bunch of whatevers....this is not the NBA.

You are right at least 3 important players are gone next year to accommodate those $$$...Kruger, Saad and Leddy as RFA's.

There were reports Bowan was trying to extend Saad...makes sense don't want to have him have a mega years and then held up by either an offer sheet or arbitration.

- bogiedoc


If the number for 19/88 is $10.8 X 2 = $21.6, tagging rules might temporarily delay re-signing Saad and Kruger:

Without moving anyone out right now, Hawks have $24.2 left for 2015-16; counting Toews and Kane, they only have $2.6 left - maybe not enough for the increases for the two of them.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 8 @ 3:33 PM ET
Almost $11 M each, I don't see it working out well. That is too much cap for 2 players. Granted, I would love to have the potential problem of paying Toews & Kane that much.

It makes it that much harder to win though as those two players can't be on the ice at all times, and the rest of the roster is going to have holes/youth. (especially with potential injuries)

If it were me, I would pick the player that means more to the team (Toews) and try and trade Kane for a huge haul. If all of your eggs are in one basket, it could be great. It could also be very, very messy.

I know, I am a Blues fan. We have never won, I know nothing.

- carcus


NOW McDonough gets involved - and probably says no - 75% of the marketing effort is built around the two of them, in tandem - not sure McD or Rocky would sign off.

Meddling? Maybe - yeah - but this is an unusual situation. Trying to trade Crosby in Pittsburgh would have similar input from Lemieux.
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