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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: The High Price Of Success
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Walky
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IA
Joined: 04.28.2011

Jul 8 @ 2:00 PM ET
If a team can move up two - maybe three - young players to replace more expensive veterans, I would think that would be reason to cheer.

You're talking about replacing 7 important pieces of the puzzle with untested, unproven prospects.

- StLBravesFan

Realistically, you could probably replace Leddy (strictly replace, not accounting for potential growth) and Versteeg right now. Definitely versteeg with morin. Oduya should be replaceable next year. Those are the ones who are easy to replace. Only TT I think could possibly replace Sharps scoring ability (and thats very much a maybe). Bickell seems replaceable but he wins a lot of board battles and really turns up the rest of his game in the playoffs. Right now the hawks don't have a replacement in the pipe for that. Kruger is a defensive wizard who can act like a human shield for the rest of the team. Frankly he's a steal at 1.25 mil. Danault could replace him in a few years but again thats a maybe. Shaw is also a steal at 2 mil for a 20g guy. Plus his feistiness is useful. Ross or Hartman might develop into replacements but definitely a few years away. Don't see a reason to replace the last two unless they get expensive. Bickell and Sharp on the other hand are more expensive (10mil between them) but harder to replace. Keeping a highly talented team refreshed and under the cap is hard. But I much enjoy this compared to worrying about which top 5 guy we should pick.
Q...argh
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.07.2013

Jul 8 @ 2:01 PM ET
If the worst we would lose in the next two years is Marcus Kruger, Johnny Oduya, Nick Leddy, Andrew Shaw, Patrick Sharp, Versteeg, or Bickell, it would not be too bad.

I think in a year, between HArtman, McNeil, Danault, Nordstrom and Morin we can replace Kruger, Shaw and Versteeg.

Oduya will be a loss, but he and Leddy can be replaced with Johns, Dahlbeck, Clendenning and Rundblad.

Am I saying that any of these guys are definitely going to pan out? We still have doubts that Leddy, Bickell and Shaw are panning out and we want to ship versteeg out for a bag of pucks so lets not come back in three years with the revisionist history that we had such great depth.

The point is, for every legitimate piece that gets moved, we have two or three legitimate candidates to fill his position. And in the salary cap age, this is the best you can hope for.
Kudos to Stanbo, etc...

- busmaster

Nobody in that list replaces Kruger or Shaw. I don't see Nordy panning out as a starting NHL center. Morin replaces Versteeg, no argument.

Defense get downgraded no matter how you look at it, and if Clendening gets brought up, we are in a boatload of trouble. Sharp has to go because the numbers say so. Nobody has mentioned replacing Richards. He is on a one year contract and will have to be replaced at 2C after next year, or paid more than $2M for another year, I would think. If they have Smith center a line next season, he could possibly replace Kruger, but then, you're still short a center.

This is going to suck no matter how they go about it. One D prospect and one forward prospect is going to have to be a surprise star for in order to have a chance to go all the way after next season. In my ideal world, Oduya stays, Sharp, Versteeg and Bickell go (that makes up for Toews & Kane, plus Saad's raise), then we adjust as necessary. I doubt it will work out that way, though.
BearsnHawks
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: TX
Joined: 07.01.2012

Jul 8 @ 2:03 PM ET
I still want Zack Smith included in any deal with Ottawa. He's a great depth centre with a decent cap hit for 3 more seasons.
- DarthKane


I like Smith too. However, if he were included, might as well take Lazar off. Lazar could be a top 6 forward. I would rather sign a vet, to be a depth center, and get a top 6 forward prospect for Sharp. Other guy is their top goalie prospect and who knows what we could get with their 1st.

I know everyone thinks about now, but I think we need to find players to be top 6 players once Hossa is gone or top 4 Defenders once Seabrook or Keith are gone. Also, Bowman seems to trade guys for prospects/picks, not current NHLers.
Walky
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IA
Joined: 04.28.2011

Jul 8 @ 2:05 PM ET
this year 19/88 will eat up 18.2% of the cap...with a 73-75mil cap next year Toews/Kane would eat up about 29% of the cap at 10.8mil each...I dont see how they can ask for such an huge portion of the salary cap for two players and expect that this team will not suffer as a result..that is the difference between 4 conference finals & 2 cups in 6 years and 1 stanley cup in six years(Pittsburgh is a great example of much too top heavy team).

9-9.5 mil would be around 23-25% of the cap and give the Hawks at least another solid depth player each year with that 3+mil in space

just for consideration...OVI makes only 13% of the cap & Crosby 12% and that is THIS YEAR..that % will fall with each rise in the Cap....Toews/Kane would each be more costly than OVI and Crosby individually

- EnzoD


Ovi and crosby deals aren't comparable. They were signed under smaller cap #. Toews and Kane have been highway robbery near 6 mil these last few years. In 5 years they will look like what Ovi and crosby look like today. Then people will be complaining about Mackinnon's new deal and such.
BreakoutHockey
Location: Chicago area, IL
Joined: 06.12.2012

Jul 8 @ 2:09 PM ET
That's a lot of 1/2 year guys being slotted in there.
Is this a lineup for a cup run or building block roster?

- RobitailleFAN20


That's a 2015-16 lineup. The majority, if not all of the prospects will have played at least a partial year. Nordstrom and Morin would be going into their 2nd/3rd full years. Smith his 4th. Maybe the only true rookies at forward would be whoever of McNeill/Hartman gets the 4th line slot. On D, at least one of Rundblad, Dahlbeck, and Johns is likely to have been a regular NHL defenseman in 2014-15. Again, maybe one true rookie on the backend in that scenario. Granted, I'd prefer having a Brookbank-type on the 3rd pair if they fit under the cap.

Also, it isn't as big of a deal to have a few rookies on the team when your entire core (even Saad by that point) have reached veteran status. I can deal with 3/4 rookies on the roster, especially given that only two of them will be in the lineup on any given night.
howiehandles
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.18.2010

Jul 8 @ 2:13 PM ET
Need to milk the good times now as much as possible. No one on the farm excites me.
scottak
Location: I am serious. And don't call me Shirley!
Joined: 08.06.2010

Jul 8 @ 2:14 PM ET
Ovi and crosby deals aren't comparable. They were signed under smaller cap #. Toews and Kane have been highway robbery near 6 mil these last few years. In 5 years they will look like what Ovi and crosby look like today. Then people will be complaining about Mackinnon's new deal and such.
- Walky

Beaver-Warrior
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: in my great and unmatched wisdom
Joined: 07.28.2011

Jul 8 @ 2:15 PM ET
I realize I'll get slapped around for this but......

I feel great about Bergy's contract. $6.5 for eight starting this season.

I hope Krejic dosent get stupid and ask for $10.

- JIwasinskiJr


You take a wrong turn in Albuquerque?
busmaster
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 08.06.2010

Jul 8 @ 2:15 PM ET
Nobody in that list replaces Kruger or Shaw. I don't see Nordy panning out as a starting NHL center. Morin replaces Versteeg, no argument.

Defense get downgraded no matter how you look at it, and if Clendening gets brought up, we are in a boatload of trouble. Sharp has to go because the numbers say so. Nobody has mentioned replacing Richards. He is on a one year contract and will have to be replaced at 2C after next year, or paid more than $2M for another year, I would think. If they have Smith center a line next season, he could possibly replace Kruger, but then, you're still short a center.

This is going to suck no matter how they go about it. One D prospect and one forward prospect is going to have to be a surprise star for in order to have a chance to go all the way after next season. In my ideal world, Oduya stays, Sharp, Versteeg and Bickell go (that makes up for Toews & Kane, plus Saad's raise), then we adjust as necessary. I doubt it will work out that way, though.

- Q...argh


Let's give McNeil and Danault and Nordstrom another year in Rockford. They each have their own upside and if Kruger can learn to win faceoffs overnight maybe Perrault can teach them as well. Hartman has Shaw's tenacity with more upside...

Honestly if we're going to go down that road and lament that Shaw and Krugs are irreplaceable that is just not seeing the big picture...

We don't even know if Richards will be any good, and if you think lacking 2C depth means we will suck, I present the last two years as evidence otherwise.

If we can keep Sharp for 2014 we can make a good run. In 2015, you're right. Oduya is the primary piece we need to keep that we don't have a good replacement for. Versteeg will be our only bad contract at that point and at 2 mill for a year he can be easily dumped.

If the cap will be 74 mill and we don't do anything stupid we can still ice a top tier team in 2015 with TT replacing Sharp on the top 6.
tredbrta
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.30.2012

Jul 8 @ 2:17 PM ET
I think there's a huge difference between taking a step backwards for a year or maybe 2, and never being able to win again. I see a lot of worried fans who are acting like next season is the last season we'll EVER get a chance to see the Hawks compete deep in the playoffs with Kane and Toews.

What happened after 2010? Well, we got (frank)ed by the cap, and then slowly rebuilt a contender again. Why cant that happen again? Same core pieces to build around(only probly minus Sharp and hopefully +Saad). Same coach. Same GM. Another deep group of hopeful prospects to fill in depth roles...

Will we win the Cup in 2015-16? Probly not. But to act like "oh no, one more year and then its over for good" is really idiotic IMO.

- SimpleJack


This is starting to sound like Cub's group think.

Contenders do not cede years while their core players are in their primes. If this cap situation is forced on them and they adopt this strategy it is a lose/lose.

An organization that wants to stay in contention would move older pieces of the core out with large cap hits (Seabs/Sharp). Hope they bring in a decent future and current return and their pro scouting can bring in pieces that can fill in now at lower prices.

That happens at the trade deadline this year or, at the latest, next off season.

The big problem for Stan is that his inability to move Sharp could end up forcing him to take a Campbell type return back. If T/K sign at the reported number that will be the perception - that Bowman has no choice.

If so, indecision (for whatever reason - committee or Bowman's style) will have cost them big time.
acmidd28
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago , IL
Joined: 06.17.2009

Jul 8 @ 2:19 PM ET
Any rumblings of Kevin Hayes is going to be signed by August or are they just writing off a first round pick?

BearsnHawks
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: TX
Joined: 07.01.2012

Jul 8 @ 2:21 PM ET
Need to milk the good times now as much as possible. No one on the farm excites me.
- howiehandles


I mean we only have a top 5 ranked prospect pool...... Someone has high expectations!! TT, Johns, Dahlbeck, McNeil, Danault, and Hartman. None of them excite you?
BearsnHawks
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: TX
Joined: 07.01.2012

Jul 8 @ 2:21 PM ET
Any rumblings of Kevin Hayes is going to be signed by August or are they just writing off a first round pick?
- acmidd28


We would get a 2nd round pick, in next years deep draft, for him, if he doesn't re-sign.
eburgio
Location: SF, CA
Joined: 07.18.2011

Jul 8 @ 2:22 PM ET
I mean we only have a top 5 ranked prospect pool...... Someone has high expectations!! TT, Johns, Dahlbeck, McNeil, Danault, and Hartman. None of them excite you?
- BearsnHawks


Other than TT, nobody projects as a top 6 forward. Johns and Dalbeck project as bottom pair defensemen at the moment. The good thing about competition is that it forces some guys to step up and others will crack and fizzle out.
scottak
Location: I am serious. And don't call me Shirley!
Joined: 08.06.2010

Jul 8 @ 2:23 PM ET
It's a hard cap in the NHL, but it seems to go up every year, as the sport grows. The Toews/Kane current contracts were a cap challenge when they were signed, but they are more than manageable last year and this upcoming season. 29 others teams would be tickled to be paying 2 of the world's best players a paltry $6M per.

The new contracts will be a bit of a challenge (Sharp will have to be sacrificed) at the beginning, but by the end of the term they will be bargains.
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Jul 8 @ 2:24 PM ET
Ovi and crosby deals aren't comparable. They were signed under smaller cap #. Toews and Kane have been highway robbery near 6 mil these last few years. In 5 years they will look like what Ovi and crosby look like today. Then people will be complaining about Mackinnon's new deal and such.
- Walky



They are comparable in the fact that they are Superstar players looking at Max contracts...the 10-12mil figures are based off a salary cap that has not yet risen and has already been projected higher than it actually ended up being this season...signing Toews/Kane to max deals based on projections seems very risky and a step towards being too top heavy...if the salary cap does rise to 80 mil in 5 years then yes these deals will be nice, but that is not a given and if it stagnates around 75/76 mil then the Hawks are in a very tough spot.

It seems clear to me that Brisson wants them to be the highest paid players in the NHL right now, which is fair given the expected cap rise, so give them 9.75 for 8 years and call it a day
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jul 8 @ 2:25 PM ET
Realistically, you could probably replace Leddy (strictly replace, not accounting for potential growth) and Versteeg right now. Definitely versteeg with morin. Oduya should be replaceable next year. Those are the ones who are easy to replace. Only TT I think could possibly replace Sharps scoring ability (and thats very much a maybe). Bickell seems replaceable but he wins a lot of board battles and really turns up the rest of his game in the playoffs. Right now the hawks don't have a replacement in the pipe for that. Kruger is a defensive wizard who can act like a human shield for the rest of the team. Frankly he's a steal at 1.25 mil. Danault could replace him in a few years but again thats a maybe. Shaw is also a steal at 2 mil for a 20g guy. Plus his feistiness is useful. Ross or Hartman might develop into replacements but definitely a few years away. Don't see a reason to replace the last two unless they get expensive. Bickell and Sharp on the other hand are more expensive (10mil between them) but harder to replace. Keeping a highly talented team refreshed and under the cap is hard. But I much enjoy this compared to worrying about which top 5 guy we should pick.
- Walky


I think those of you who believe there enough prospects to replace Oduya, leddy, sharp, Kruger and Shaw are being (no offense) ignorant of history. Just looking at the hawks 9not to mention 29 other teams) the road is literally littered with the names of “top prospects” who didn’t make it.

Just taking the Hawks: Steve McCarthy, Adam Munro, Kyle Beach, Igor Makarov, Mikhail Yakubov, Jack Skille, Pavel Vorobiev, Jimmy Waite(!), Eric LeCompte, Geoff Peters, Matt Keith, Remy Royer, JY Leroux, Adam Berti, Mike Blunden, Shawn Lalonde, Akim Aliu, Billy Sweatt, Dan Delisle, Ludvig Rensfledt.

ALL hyped every bit as much as the current group of prospects. All big, fat flops.

Point is, the road to the NHL is tough and 3 out of every 4 guys drafted never make it at all, let alone become meaningful players.

I love Philip Danault, but does he become a nother Marcus Kruger . . . in 1-2 years? Probably not.

Will McNeill be another Shaw? Mmmm maybe, maybe not.

Who in the current pipeline replaces Leddy or Oduya? You better start lighting candles for Clendeining but all indications are he could be closer to Nathan Dempsey than he ever will be to Leddy or Oduya. Dahlbeck is a nice prospect, could be a 4-5 guy. Divided opinions on Johns.

You are just assuming too high a percentage of these guys are going to succeed and be good players. It almost NEVER works out that way.

blackhawk24
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Lake in the Hills, IL
Joined: 06.06.2009

Jul 8 @ 2:26 PM ET
Time to celebrate. The Hawks are re-signing franchise cornerstones heading into their prime instead of packing their bags, ala Roenick & Belfour

- Sconnie

Different era, different regime, slightly better players overall. Loved JR, and Eddie won the Calder, 2 Vezinas and anchored 3 Jennings teams; no cups though.

$10.8M per 19 & 88 cap hit will cripple 'Hawks chances at a '16 and '17 cup for sure, maybe even longer. Book it. Not because of just their cap hits but effectively replacing the players who have to be jettisoned just to get under the cap.

I do not subscribe to the notion the cap is going to go way up, YoY. Haven't we learned our lesson from just the past couple weeks, $69M vs $71M+?
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Jul 8 @ 2:27 PM ET
This is starting to sound like Cub's group think.

Contenders do not cede years while their core players are in their primes. If this cap situation is forced on them and they adopt this strategy it is a lose/lose.

An organization that wants to stay in contention would move older pieces of the core out with large cap hits (Seabs/Sharp). Hope they bring in a decent future and current return and their pro scouting can bring in pieces that can fill in now at lower prices.

That happens at the trade deadline this year or, at the latest, next off season.

The big problem for Stan is that his inability to move Sharp could end up forcing him to take a Campbell type return back. If T/K sign at the reported number that will be the perception - that Bowman has no choice.

If so, indecision (for whatever reason - committee or Bowman's style) will have cost them big time.

- tredbrta



that is a nightmare scenario for the Hawks and StanBo...he is a Canadian Olympian and top line winger on 2 championship teams....Stan HAS GOT to get some solid value back for Sharp if/when he is moved...a legitimate young NHLer with top six talent and or a solid 1st rounder/former high first rounders with legit NHL ability
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jul 8 @ 2:27 PM ET
I mean we only have a top 5 ranked prospect pool...... Someone has high expectations!! TT, Johns, Dahlbeck, McNeil, Danault, and Hartman. None of them excite you?
- BearsnHawks


By hockeysfuture? I used to write (covered the Hawks, Blues, Tampa, Preds and Canucks) for them, and I think they have the Hawks' overrated.
Walky
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IA
Joined: 04.28.2011

Jul 8 @ 2:28 PM ET
This is starting to sound like Cub's group think.

Contenders do not cede years while their core players are in their primes. If this cap situation is forced on them and they adopt this strategy it is a lose/lose.

An organization that wants to stay in contention would move older pieces of the core out with large cap hits (Seabs/Sharp). Hope they bring in a decent future and current return and their pro scouting can bring in pieces that can fill in now at lower prices.

That happens at the trade deadline this year or, at the latest, next off season.

The big problem for Stan is that his inability to move Sharp could end up forcing him to take a Campbell type return back. If T/K sign at the reported number that will be the perception - that Bowman has no choice.

If so, indecision (for whatever reason - committee or Bowman's style) will have cost them big time.

- tredbrta

Yeah the hawks would never do that and sign players like John Scott, Ryan Johnson, Brendan Morrison, Fernando Pisani, Marty Turco...

However do agree with the plan for sharp and seabs. Gotta sell high on those type of guys.

On a bit of a tangent: the campbell return was actually exactly what you describe for this plan though a little more risky. Salak was supposed to be a pretty good goalie prospect (pre-meltdown) and played pretty similar to Emery in preseason if I remember correctly. Olesz was supposed to be a pretty capable depth player if he healed well. He didn't heal well. The hawks had to gamble on that one and unfortunately lost on both accounts. But even though they ended up with nothing they still have that cap space.

To visualize the importance of 7 mil in cap space here is roughly what that would cut out of our roster:

Sharp + Kruger
or
Bickell + Shaw + Kruger
or
Shaw+Smith+Oduya

That, I think is the true value of the campbell trade
icedog97
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 10.20.2005

Jul 8 @ 2:30 PM ET
I am beginning to believe it is very difficult, if not impossible, to ice a cup winning team with two large (league high at the time of signing - essentially) contract forwards on your team.

That second 9-10M guy takes 1 or two additional quality players off your roster.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Jul 8 @ 2:31 PM ET
Need to milk the good times now as much as possible. No one on the farm excites me.
- howiehandles


This. All day.
mcmasterkev
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Oshawa, ON
Joined: 07.14.2008

Jul 8 @ 2:32 PM ET
Spot on JJ. Bowman and company were gift wrapped the first Cup and had the core in place for the 2nd.
- DK002

Not sure why everyone seems to think Stan Bowman had nothing to do with the roster that won the 2010 cup. He's had a prominent role with the franchise since 2000, was Director of Hockey Operations from 2005-07, and Assistant General Manager after that. The reason they fired Tallon was because many thought it was Bowman who was doing the real work as Assistant and so they promoted him.
BearsnHawks
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: TX
Joined: 07.01.2012

Jul 8 @ 2:32 PM ET
Other than TT, nobody projects as a top 6 forward. Johns and Dalbeck project as bottom pair defensemen at the moment. The good thing about competition is that it forces some guys to step up and others will crack and fizzle out.
- eburgio


The great thing about the Hawks is that we have most of our top 6 set. Hossa, Toews, Kane, Saad, Sharp, and TT. Now if we trade Sharp, hopefully we can either get a future top 4 defensemen or a top 6 forward from him. In 3-4 years, when Hossa gets moved to the 3rd line, we still should have 4 legit top 4 forwards and that doesn't include someone we could get in a trade, a vet on a cheap contract trying to win a cup, or someone stepping up and being a reliable 2nd line guy. How many legit top 6 guys did we have when we won our last cup? Four (granted losing Hossa is not replaceable)?

My concern is defense. I don't see anyone that is a top 2 defensemen. Hopefully we can get Dahlbeck or Johns to get there. Who knows, Keith was a 2nd round pick, maybe one of our prospects can turn into a top pairing guys.
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