You were dead wrong about Kane going to Buffalo, are you trying to go 0 and 2 with your Saad prediction?
- paulr

Yes, cuz that's what I am is a predictor, stating that it's bound to happen.

It's not a prediction about Saad getting such an offer sheet, just stating how Chicago's hand could eventually be forced.

The rights to Kevin Hayes for Getzlaf!

Wonder if the FL thing has any legs.

I can see both sides of the argument but I wouldn't mind moving Sharp now if it gets you a usable piece this year (bottom 6 fwd with size that can skate), blue chip fwd prospect, and a pick...something along those lines.

I still think they can find a spot for Rozy. Don't care what the return is: a 7th, a career farmhand, whatever.
- HawkintheD

D, the rights to Hayes - you'll be LUCKY to get a young, inexperienced prospect like Nathan MacKinnon.

Oh I think the Hawks would need to add a least a 4th round pick to round out that deal, especially if they want Anaheim to retain 3/4 of Getzlaf's salary.
- paulr

I think Murray will offer to do this anyway since he once wore the Indianhead. Adding a fourth would be a no go for me.

The rights to Kevin Hayes will be a top 3 fwd in this league on any team, possibly a perennial Hart finalist.

D, the rights to Hayes - you'll be LUCKY to get a young, inexperienced prospect like Nathan MacKinnon.
- StLBravesFan

The rights to Kevin Hayes are like the back up QB in this town !

The rights to Kevin Hayes for Getzlaf!

Wonder if the FL thing has any legs.

I can see both sides of the argument but I wouldn't mind moving Sharp now if it gets you a usable piece this year (bottom 6 fwd with size that can skate), blue chip fwd prospect, and a pick...something along those lines.

I still think they can find a spot for Rozy. Don't care what the return is: a 7th, a career farmhand, whatever.
- HawkintheD

I can go one step farther.

If either Oduya or Sharp goes this summer, then I still would even agree to pay half of Rozy contract. Does that mean Chicago also takes half of the cap hit? I would agree to that too, if necessary?

Here's why:

In order to make a deep playoff push with or without either Sharp or Oduya, there is no sense in retaining an old and getting slower each season Rozy. Somebody will skate by him and Chicago looses a playoff game. Yep I see how that could easily happen.

Instead, move Rozy and bring back Brookbank on a cheap one year contract. Brookbank and Dahlbeck might actually be ok on a third pair. One of them is a reserve if either Rundblad or Johns surprises and sticks. But while Rundblad may not be too bad, Johns really does need to work on a few things. Yet by the playoffs it is these dmen whom Chicago is banking on as third pair and reserves.

I omitted Leddy. I am going to guess that he doesn't show enough improvement and is traded for a draft pick, or some prospect at trade deadline. With Leddy it is really going to boil down to this: Not that he has taken an incremental step forward in his development, because this is plausible. But long term is he going to be worth the player for the new contract Leddy will ask for? And is Leddy at the new contract figure still only projected as a third pair? If Bowman does not like the answers, then he has to move Leddy at the trade deadline.

I get that Bowman once was high on Leddy's potential. That is why he receives one more season. That is maybe why Bowman moves Oduya first. Or, maybe Leddy gets moved before Oduya.

Welcome to the secret world of Bowman's hockey think tank. Who knows what might happen. One more run for a Cup with this core. My best guess is Sharp stays and either Leddy or Oduya goes. Oh yeah, Rosy goes too!

Yes, cuz that's what I am is a predictor, stating that it's bound to happen.

It's not a prediction about Saad getting such an offer sheet, just stating how Chicago's hand could eventually be forced.
- stashu

Except in 2010 when he had his hands completely tied Bowman mistakenly took a chance that no offer sheets would be offewred to his RFA's. Bowman has made very few mistakes and I am confident no team will have the chance to offer sheet Saad. However when your team is stocked with a bunch of blue chip prospects and don't have the funds to pay them big bucks I'd bet a few bucks of the allowence my wife gives me that one or two of the Sabre wonderkids will be presented with offer sheets and that they will lose one or two or ....

Compensation for an accepted offer sheet for 5 million = 1st and 3rd round pick.

If some good team who regularly has a pick in the 20+ range every year takes a flyer (or even teams who draft out of the top 10, though it depends on the upcoming lottery changes), Saad could EASILY be getting offers that high and either force Chicago to match or lose him and wait for new picks to develop.
- stashu

How often do teams make offer sheets?

Would you give up a high first and third and $5MM per year for a skater who has yet to score 20 goals and has yet proven to be a consistent top-6 forward?

I think Murray will offer to do this anyway since he once wore the Indianhead. Adding a fourth would be a no go for me.

The rights to Kevin Hayes will be a top 3 fwd in this league on any team, possibly a perennial Hart finalist.
- HawkintheD

And if the Ducks trade for Jimmy, the Ducks will have the best brother combo of all time! Wonder if they'll have matching haircuts, goatees and parasols?

How often do teams make offer sheets?

Would you give up a high first and third and $5MM per year skater who has yet to score 20 goals and has yet proven to be a consistent top-6 forward?
- StLBravesFan

If he's the type of player who would command that type of salary on the open market, and you're picking 10+, why not? Your draft pick would likely turn into that caliber type player anyways, and you're getting instant return rather than having to wait for the kid to develop.

They don't happen often, but that doesn't mean they don't happen at all. You guys obviously like the guy as he's been talked about for a long time as being a need to re-sign, so I imagine other teams like him as well and could hurt Chicago in either way from an offer sheet - forcing the higher salary than they might want or by losing the guy they developed and groomed.

Again, not predicting it would happen, just mentioning how it could drive his contract number higher than someone else said they'd want him to be signed for.

How often do teams make offer sheets?

Would you give up a high first and third and $5MM per year skater who has yet to score 20 goals and has yet proven to be a consistent top-6 forward?
- StLBravesFan

In today's NHL there are some GM's that would. Heck, Tallon could empty his stable again then offer sheet a Saad. Some teams are giving too much money to some players. Then too, you have the sneaky move Yzerman pulled to open cap space: sends two players to Phoenix for a 6th round pick.

Well the refrain goes In Stan we trust. It will be a rocky road for Rocky and Blackhawk nation if Stan doesn't get it right. I imagine McDonough will not be too happy either. He would probably throw a fit. Then Kaplan will bring him on air and they will talk all sweet and nice about things. Hope that never happens.

I am gonna jump around and reply to various comments so no one think I am answering just you.

That Cap will be more like 75 million.


- wiz1901

That's a big jump (8.7%) when they had to borrow some of next year's TV money to get a $5MM jump this year.

But, from your mouth to God's ear: maybe the looney makes a comeback.

How often do teams make offer sheets?

Would you give up a high first and third and $5MM per year skater who has yet to score 20 goals and has yet proven to be a consistent top-6 forward?
- StLBravesFan

i think the fallacy of the offer sheet discussion is the belief that someone has to make one in order for it to be effective. For example, if Saad believes he is worth $5m and he qualifies as an RFA the risk is he will cost you $6.5m (like ROR) merely because of the way the overall system works.

Teams, like the Rangers, who failed to provide a good cap management base, are being ripped apart this summer because they have not provided enough cap flexibility for effective player retention. They are losing not because the money can't be provided, it is about the timing and their failure to give themselves the flexibility to make timely moves.

D, the rights to Hayes - you'll be LUCKY to get a young, inexperienced prospect like Nathan MacKinnon.
- StLBravesFan

Well Sage, if that's all someone would offer I would have to respond with a polite NO THANK YOU to the Avs.

Insulting!

I can go one step farther.

If either Oduya or Sharp goes this summer, then I still would even agree to pay half of Rozy contract. Does that mean Chicago also takes half of the cap hit? I would agree to that too, if necessary?

Here's why:

In order to make a deep playoff push with or without either Sharp or Oduya, there is no sense in retaining an old and getting slower each season Rozy. Somebody will skate by him and Chicago looses a playoff game. Yep I see how that could easily happen.

Instead, move Rozy and bring back Brookbank on a cheap one year contract. Brookbank and Dahlbeck might actually be ok on a third pair. One of them is a reserve if either Rundblad or Johns surprises and sticks. But while Rundblad may not be too bad, Johns really does need to work on a few things. Yet by the playoffs it is these dmen whom Chicago is banking on as third pair and reserves.

I omitted Leddy. I am going to guess that he doesn't show enough improvement and is traded for a draft pick, or some prospect at trade deadline. With Leddy it is really going to boil down to this: Not that he has taken an incremental step forward in his development, because this is plausible. But long term is he going to be worth the player for the new contract Leddy will ask for? And is Leddy at the new contract figure still only projected as a third pair? If Bowman does not like the answers, then he has to move Leddy at the trade deadline.

I get that Bowman once was high on Leddy's potential. That is why he receives one more season. That is maybe why Bowman moves Oduya first. Or, maybe Leddy gets moved before Oduya.

Welcome to the secret world of Bowman's hockey think tank. Who knows what might happen. One more run for a Cup with this core. My best guess is Sharp stays and either Leddy or Oduya goes. Oh yeah, Rosy goes too!
- jhawk59

good insight J!
I said this before, why 10 or 27? what about the lazy F---, that shows up for maybe 20 games a year & makes 4 mill? I am sure 1 of those Rockford kids & some tweaking by Q could cover that. why is this guy on the same plane as 88 & 19? that 4 mill , 1 move & you have extra room to wiggle!
IF there is any legs to it, 10 for, Eller & Tinordi would be nice. we need a potential crease clearing D man & a big center to plant his arse in front of the net, both guys are young. in either case, uncle john likes PR stuff, I agree something will happen by the 18th!

Panic option.

A 5% increase in the cap gets you to $72.5 - $73.0 - let's be optimistic and use $4.0 increase.

Before making any more moves this summer:

Toews/Kane increases - $8.4
Saad/Kruger increases - $2.0
Cap excess this summer - $2.2

Total increases - $12.6

Cap increase - $4.0

Net salaries needed to be shed - $8.6

Salaries shed this summer (I'll assume Oduya, net of his replacement) - $3.0

Salaries needed to be shed next summer - $5.6 to get to -0-, add another million to get a cushion.

That's two skaters - Sharp plus one.

Now, they certainly haven't improved the team - and some of the core is closer to "old - but they haven't decimated it either. If (IF) some of the Rockfish Replacements can be respectable, it's one of my transition years.

But you don't have to blow it up this summer - they have a chance (a chance) of competing this year - have to rake it.


- StLBravesFan

Losing Bickell's 4 million wouldn't be to hard to swallow.

Good mornng party people.... last two days has produced Hawks news just like Al said the 7 days before the HawksCon would have all the movement if there is to be any . Think we'll see that trade for cap relief today ?
- mrpaulish

Good morning Paul. I hoping to see movement soon, preferably Rozy or Versteeg but I get the feeling there not going anywhere. Wouldn't mind seeing Bickell's 4 mill traded.

Totally agreed. No cap (for most of their reign) allowed them to let kids develop. The Hawks will not hav that luxury. All the more reason, the picks need to really hit.
- John Jaeckel[/quote

Those picks will ultimately decide how good a GM Jr is in the long run. Crossing fingers.

Well Sage, if that's all someone would offer I would have to respond with a polite NO THANK YOU to the Avs.

Insulting!
- HawkintheD

Well - then KEEP your goddam rights.

Keep them until Hell freezes over.

Or August 15, whichever comes first.

good insight J!
I said this before, why 10 or 27? what about the lazy F---, that shows up for maybe 20 games a year & makes 4 mill? I am sure 1 of those Rockford kids & some tweaking by Q could cover that. why is this guy on the same plane as 88 & 19? that 4 mill , 1 move & you have extra room to wiggle!
IF there is any legs to it, 10 for, Eller & Tinordi would be nice. we need a potential crease clearing D man & a big center to plant his arse in front of the net, both guys are young. in either case, uncle john likes PR stuff, I agree something will happen by the 18th!
- wonthecup10

I do not blame you for thinking that way and for the suggestion you make. I too am frustrated by Bickel.

I read where he is dedicating himself to get in great shape, better than any other summer to work so hard in training so that he is primed for a really good season.

I cannot totally believe Bickel. Oh sure, he will work out, hard workouts when he isn't fishing. Next season he may start out like a lion on the prowl. He may have some nice stretches where he gets more points and hits or checks impressively . But with his history of motivation as an Icehog and in the NHL, I just figure he is like the phrase goes how a tiger or a zebra doesn't change its stripes.

Nonetheless, he could come up big in the playoffs. Like he did against the Bruins. He could be that force again. He would complement players on a top line as their winger. All which means a whole heck of a lot because Bickel is a big player who can be mean , will hit, will score....even if sporadic....and that means a lot in the playoffs. I mean, where else do you get a big guy like Bickel.

He ain't perfect. He is not someone I am really all too pleased with. But the alternative, which is no Bickel and no big man on a top line in the playoffs...that is not too digestable as far as I am concerned.

So while I share your angst, I have to wonder if Bickel leaving is a prudent move. Have any further thoughts on this, please post

Good morning Paul. I hoping to see movement soon, preferably Rozy or Versteeg but I get the feeling there not going anywhere. Wouldn't mind seeing Bickell's 4 mill traded.
- Canardhawk

Me either. As long as they could keep Bickell. Poulliot from NY just signed a comparable deal, $4mil/for 5 years I think.

Similar players and stats.

Unless there is something coming back in a package that looks like Bickell you don't trade him or his salary.

I get the floating thing in the reg season is why people want to part with him but I say you give him at least this season to prove otherwise.

The 20 games per year that he's been giving you are usually the ones that count.

Yes, cuz that's what I am is a predictor, stating that it's bound to happen.

It's not a prediction about Saad getting such an offer sheet, just stating how Chicago's hand could eventually be forced.
- stashu

Saad is one of the golden children. He won't go anywhere. They have guys like Seabrook, Oduya, Sharp, and Bickell, who will be launched before Saad.

Just for the record, I'm not hating on Seabs, just that he's not getting any younger, and if they're going to save money it would be by sending him, and not Keith. Plus they hopefully have a d-man or two that will develop in to players, although not necessarily 1st line. Seabrook would be the last one that I'd send out of that group.

Me either. As long as they could keep Bickell. Poulliot from NY just signed a comparable deal, $4mil/for 5 years I think.

Similar players and stats.

Unless there is something coming back in a package that looks like Bickell you don't trade him or his salary.

I get the floating thing in the reg season is why people want to part with him but I say you give him at least this season to prove otherwise.

The 20 games per year that he's been giving you are usually the ones that count.
- HawkintheD

That's $200,000 per game, even Toews and Kane wouldn't hold out for that kind of contract.

Saad is one of the golden children. He won't go anywhere. They have guys like Seabrook, Oduya, Sharp, and Bickell, who will be launched before Saad.

Just for the record, I'm not hating on Seabs, just that he's not getting any younger, and if they're going to save money it would be by sending him, and not Keith. Plus they hopefully have a d-man or two that will develop in to players, although not necessarily 1st line. Seabrook would be the last one that I'd send out of that group.
- howiehandles

Oh so sad to see but that is probably how it goes. I just hate to see the more physical of the dmen be traded. Like JJ said about the price to pay for past success....oh well.

I hope the Van Reimsdyck kid pans out. Fournier is someone with ability but let us see how he does in the pro game. I really like some parts of Johns game but he is probably a third pair type. Dahlbeck is someone I would hope could become really good, like a second pair type.

But alas just guessing in all these prospects. We start to get a better idea how to project their future once the AHL season is half way or more along.

Right now...heck...we do not even know what to expect from Rundblad. Probably have to guess that Dahlbeck is the closest player to being a regular among all these dmen. Not based on talent alone, but that Dahlbeck can play a safe, steady type game more so than the others as next season unfolds.

I am gonna jump around and reply to various comments so no one think I am answering just you.

That Cap will be more like 75 million.

But yes...no matter decison will need to be made prior to 2015-16 because they got either decide if Kruger is a integral piece who wants to stay or too much of a luxury.

I am sure if Saad continues his development, he will be looked at quite differently, but you don't know...if he backslides...he goes from future core to a bartering chip FOR a veteran star that keeps the Indian Engine pushing to win Cups now.

...and again I ma not taliking about NOW, because Sharp I believe goes nowhere now.

I don't think Sharp's age or injuries have much to do with his desirability. Teams simply don't have sharpshooters and road tested vets, and when you see even physical players slow and older like Iginla making solid coin,it is a fallacy to think Sharp's deal scares away GMs. (Again not comparing styles in the two players, but which guy gives you a more valuable game goalscorer or veteran physicality?)

The future necessary subtraction will continue to be necessary and will be tied to Hossa's fitness and play, and whether he wants to be a hawk ambassador sooner or later.

BUT what I think was JJ entire point of the topic is EVENTUALLY that Cap plateaus a couple years down the road. AND THE RE-STOCK IS BETTER TO COME FROM INSIDE.

And then you basically are going to have to have true subtractions from maybe even your defensive core. I am talking about Keith Seabrook Hammer.

All these alarms going off now by many here are comical...
here is Pittsburgh with these two hefty superstar deals in place and they still are spending 4 mil to get "Ehrhoffed" while they still have the midget Letang?

You will noticed their farm hasn't produced the bottom six (that JJ is afraid our farm may "only" have) so they quickly saw the weakness and attempted a re-load there...by trade.

This idea that Sharp's value now or next year changes is faulty.

Your core defenders will always get you a nice return, because it doesn't take a genius to look at the other NHL team rosters and see Darryl Sutter's comments about the hawks "having four top pair defenders" is a slight exaggeration, until you see many teams don't have ONE as good.

So JJ, they need to eventually find replacements down on the farm.

and in my other post never mention Trevor van RIEMSDYK.

He has great edging a defender needs, and granted, a late bloomer undrafted, but the connection via his brother means he knows what needs to be done. (Please not time to hit with the signing of Toews' brother, ok?)

You don't seek and sign guys like this unless you think they got upside to be NHLers.
I don't think he was added to round out Rockford's roster, like Cody Bass' fists were.

So they are positioning themselve to develop lesser defenders for the eventual and necessary subtractions of the higher contracted core.

But it's too early for all the knotted panties here in terms of NOW, and all this thinking that say Montrela (who MUST feel on an upswing...one series away from the Cup) is gonna start subtraction rostered youngsters for Hawk vets NOW.

That's more fanboy trading where home team fans think eacg and evet othet team has each and every player on their roster availbel for our phone call.
- wiz1901

Pretty much 100% agree with this Wiz.

That's a big jump (8.7%) when they had to borrow some of next year's TV money to get a $5MM jump this year.

But, from your mouth to God's ear: maybe the looney makes a comeback.
- StLBravesFan

Trust me 75 million is fairly accurate, but also not comforting enough to think that provides the space to keep the core roster intact.

I think Bickell may be the logical now subtraction now, and it doesn't really matter if they make it a deal where they send a prospect carrot and get a lesser mucked back (or sign one).

Teams always will reward their organization prospects if they show game and are Ida's.
With Saad (or Evander Kane, Columbus' Johansen) you sort are on eggshells to bridge or open the pocketbook. You bridge if the space is tight and the player may not have proven without a doubt they are "there."
You reward Saad with more than a bump in rfa, and it probably positions the team better for UFA time.

JJ is correct that you have to get your restock from your farm, but there will be a bit of time for them to in fact have to prove quality minutes.