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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: The High Price Of Success
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6628
Joined: 08.24.2009

Jul 9 @ 11:58 PM ET
I have a pair of win wells. I also used a wood stick in my men's league game and caught all kinds of crap. I have a composite but it's a joke how easy that thing bends. I know some guy will slash it and I'll be out $$$
- SteveRain


Believe it or don't, but the best feeling stick I have had for the past 10 years or so is a Sherwood Vandenbusche model. I have 2 left. Bushy had no hands but a real nice stick. Good wood sticks achieve a better balance than composites. Really, how many times do slapshots go in the net anymore? Better to be able to pass and recieve a pass which I simply can't do as well with a 250.00 stick. Those whippy sticks are most of the reason the puck bounces as much as it does in the NHL games.
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Jul 9 @ 11:59 PM ET
The FO now has ZERO trade/deal leverage going forward as everyone now knows how screwed they are against the cap. Even the freaking Oilers and the Sabres can play hardball now.

But at least McD has his convention storyline intact. Bring on the bobble heads.

- Return of the Roar


Not exactly. The Hawks don't have to trade Sharp this year. Agree that the longer some of the likely suspects that might go are around their trade value decreases.

mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Jul 10 @ 12:03 AM ET
The FO now has ZERO trade/deal leverage going forward as everyone now knows how screwed they are against the cap. Even the freaking Oilers and the Sabres can play hardball now.

But at least McD has his convention storyline intact. Bring on the bobble heads.

- Return of the Roar


Not true at all. Leverage comes from the player and his contract. The more teams want that player at his pay level, the better the market. Has nothing to do with the Hawks' situation. Take Hammer for example - if they were to put him on the market next summer there would be many teams interested and the return would be the exact same as it would be if the Hawks had no need to trim salary. If five teams want the guy the Hawks are selling each of them needs to outbid the other four.
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Jul 10 @ 12:08 AM ET
Not exactly. The Hawks don't have to trade Sharp this year. Agree that the longer some of the likely suspects that might go are around their trade value decreases.
- HawkintheD


And if Sharp scores 30+ goals this season there will be a line of teams outbidding each other to get him.
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Jul 10 @ 12:08 AM ET
The FO now has ZERO trade/deal leverage going forward as everyone now knows how screwed they are against the cap. Even the freaking Oilers and the Sabres can play hardball now.

But at least McD has his convention storyline intact. Bring on the bobble heads.

- Return of the Roar

Not many of the 29 GM's in the NHL behave with any kind of logic when it comes to chasing players that they decide they want. Losing teams are always looking for a solution, that's why players like Pouliot, Engelland and others got contracts like they got from the Flames and Oilers and Tallon does what he does every offseason.


HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Jul 10 @ 12:10 AM ET
Not true at all. Leverage comes from the player and his contract. The more teams want that player at his pay level, the better the market. Has nothing to do with the Hawks' situation. Take Hammer for example - if they were to put him on the market next summer there would be many teams interested and the return would be the exact same as it would be if the Hawks had no need to trim salary. If five teams want the guy the Hawks are selling each of them needs to outbid the other four.
- mohel


Agree. Same thing with Sharp as he's got two yrs left after this one.
dan9189
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: chicago, IL
Joined: 06.29.2009

Jul 10 @ 12:17 AM ET
I agree with the last post about Sharp, if he has another good year there will be 20 plus teams lined up to trade with the Hawks for his services. Also don't rule out Seabrook being the odd man next offseason. He'll only have one year left on his deal and will command top pairing d-man money on the open market if that's the route he chooses.

I think given than Seabs is a little younger than Sharp and the Hawks are pretty deep at wing, if you put a gun to Bowman's head and told him he'd have to move one of them I'd bet it be Sharp. HOWEVER I assume Bowman will talk to Seabrook's agent this year about a possible extension next offseason and if they are too far apart on term and dollars, I woulnd't put it past Bowman to move Seabrook. They're not going to let him walk for nothing.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Jul 10 @ 2:44 AM ET
And if Sharp scores 30+ goals this season there will be a line of teams outbidding each other to get him.
- mohel



We've got a legit shot to go all the way next season so I don't see Stan making any big cap-shedding moves (ie Sharp) until he has to, which is a year from now.
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Jul 10 @ 3:06 AM ET
We've got a legit shot to go all the way next season so I don't see Stan making any big cap-shedding moves (ie Sharp) until he has to, which is a year from now.
- DarthKane




And the only way you could hope to replace his scoring after next season is to move up in round one 2015 draft. There is possibly a prospect there whom could develop and become the scorer Sharp is. Kruger and or Shaw might be the price to pay insofar as obtaining that switch of #1 choices. Saad replaces Hossa in the long term scheme. Only a draft choice not yet made would replace Sharp. At least two years away to even consider impact TT and #1 2014 may have.
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Jul 10 @ 3:12 AM ET
I agree with the last post about Sharp, if he has another good year there will be 20 plus teams lined up to trade with the Hawks for his services. Also don't rule out Seabrook being the odd man next offseason. He'll only have one year left on his deal and will command top pairing d-man money on the open market if that's the route he chooses.

I think given than Seabs is a little younger than Sharp and the Hawks are pretty deep at wing, if you put a gun to Bowman's head and told him he'd have to move one of them I'd bet it be Sharp. HOWEVER I assume Bowman will talk to Seabrook's agent this year about a possible extension next offseason and if they are too far apart on term and dollars, I woulnd't put it past Bowman to move Seabrook. They're not going to let him walk for nothing.

- dan9189

That is the same thoughts I have on both players. However, a then 34 yr old Sharp will not command much in a trade. Especially when everyone knows at that time Sharp becomes a salary dump
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 10 @ 6:29 AM ET
We've got a legit shot to go all the way next season so I don't see Stan making any big cap-shedding moves (ie Sharp) until he has to, which is a year from now.
- DarthKane


Suicide option.

1/2 the Canadian TV money is already computed into the cap for this year. When they add in the second 1/2 of the deal ($1.6m per team) it will help in boosting the cap to $71.5m next year (the 5% increase projected by Bettman).

If Bowman sits tight and does not move a few salaries now he will be in a similar position to the Bruins or Rangers of this summer, that is no control of situation because there is not sufficient cap flexibility for asset retention (Kruger, Saad, Leddy, Rundblad). He has to make moves now. For example, an injury or a bad season reduces Sharp from a good negotiable asset to the next Vincent LeCavalier and this makes the young guys vulnerable to poaching. He has to move now.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 10 @ 7:02 AM ET
[quote=jhawk59]

I always enjoy your comments. Drives me crazy when boards get clogged up with non hockey talk. Just love getting up early in the morning and reading all the threads. Enjoy the different passions of each team's fan base. I especially like the Hawk thread because JJ sets out a really clear lede piece and fans focus on the substance of the subject. Also, Hawk fans seem to have a good appreciation (gratitude) for what they have and a realistic understanding how hard it is to protect their flank from others (St. Louis, Dallas). Nothing more relaxing than hockey talk on an early warm summer morning.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 10 @ 7:22 AM ET
Suicide option.

1/2 the Canadian TV money is already computed into the cap for this year. When they add in the second 1/2 of the deal ($1.6m per team) it will help in boosting the cap to $71.5m next year (the 5% increase projected by Bettman).

If Bowman sits tight and does not move a few salaries now he will be in a similar position to the Bruins or Rangers of this summer, that is no control of situation because there is not sufficient cap flexibility for asset retention (Kruger, Saad, Leddy, Rundblad). He has to make moves now. For example, an injury or a bad season reduces Sharp from a good negotiable asset to the next Vincent LeCavalier and this makes the young guys vulnerable to poaching. He has to move now.

- spatso


Panic option.

A 5% increase in the cap gets you to $72.5 - $73.0 - let's be optimistic and use $4.0 increase.

Before making any more moves this summer:

Toews/Kane increases - $8.4
Saad/Kruger increases - $2.0
Cap excess this summer - $2.2

Total increases - $12.6

Cap increase - $4.0

Net salaries needed to be shed - $8.6

Salaries shed this summer (I'll assume Oduya, net of his replacement) - $3.0

Salaries needed to be shed next summer - $5.6 to get to -0-, add another million to get a cushion.

That's two skaters - Sharp plus one.

Now, they certainly haven't improved the team - and some of the core is closer to "old - but they haven't decimated it either. If (IF) some of the Rockfish Replacements can be respectable, it's one of my transition years.

But you don't have to blow it up this summer - they have a chance (a chance) of competing this year - have to rake it.

spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 10 @ 7:34 AM ET
Panic option.

A 5% increase in the cap gets you to $72.5 - $73.0 - let's be optimistic and use $4.0 increase.

Before making any more moves this summer:

Toews/Kane increases - $8.4
Saad/Kruger increases - $2.0
Cap excess this summer - $2.2

Total increases - $12.6

Cap increase - $4.0

Net salaries needed to be shed - $8.6

Salaries shed this summer (I'll assume Oduya, net of his replacement) - $3.0

Salaries needed to be shed next summer - $5.6 to get to -0-, add another million to get a cushion.

That's two skaters - Sharp plus one.

Now, they certainly haven't improved the team - and some of the core is closer to "old - but they haven't decimated it either. If (IF) some of the Rockfish Replacements can be respectable, it's one of my transition years.

But you don't have to blow it up this summer - they have a chance (a chance) of competing this year - have to rake it.


- StLBravesFan


And, what is the back up plan if Saad's agent thinks he is a $5m player and Sharp ages out or gets injured and hard to move?
mrpaulish
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Itasca, IL
Joined: 01.18.2010

Jul 10 @ 7:57 AM ET
Good mornng party people.... last two days has produced Hawks news just like Al said the 7 days before the HawksCon would have all the movement if there is to be any . Think we'll see that trade for cap relief today ?
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 10 @ 8:02 AM ET
And, what is the back up plan if Saad's agent thinks he is a $5m player and Sharp ages out or gets injured and hard to move?
- spatso


And what if they don't?

And what if Toews gets a career ending concussion in two years?

Saad is RFA - even if he thinks he's worth $5MM, he's not likely to get it.

If Sharp gets injured - LTIR, cap problem solved. Next man up.

Too many what-ifs - have to play the hand you're dealt.
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Jul 10 @ 8:06 AM ET
And, what is the back up plan if Saad's agent thinks he is a $5m player and Sharp ages out or gets injured and hard to move?
- spatso

Yet another reason to seriously consider if you could offer something with the Chicago #1 in exchange for at least a top ten or top whatever #1 (2015 picks). Obviously it would take hopefully only a Shaw or Kruger for this exchange. Then you are shedding salary. The drafted player (#1 2015) probably is not making the roster right away. So you bring in a Rockford player.

Cannot find dollars for f/a. Fleece some GM in a trade. Not likely. One of Chicago prospects is a real gem none seem to be, albeit we can wait and see on TT and the #1 2014. So you might hope that the 2015 # 1 could become a core player because you do,not have anyone else who will be nor any way to get someone who could become a core player. It is that draft choice and the earlier the choice in round one, the more likely that player could become a core piece one day. Meanwhile, shedding a Kruger, and or a Shaw (per my example) does reduce the overage toward the salary cap. Have to hope one of the Rockford kids - like McNeil or Nordstrom as Shaw and Kruger replacements - would develop into as good or close to as good as the player they replace.
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Jul 10 @ 8:08 AM ET
Good mornng party people.... last two days has produced Hawks news just like Al said the 7 days before the HawksCon would have all the movement if there is to be any . Think we'll see that trade for cap relief today ?
- mrpaulish


The rights to Kevin Hayes for Getzlaf!

Wonder if the FL thing has any legs.

I can see both sides of the argument but I wouldn't mind moving Sharp now if it gets you a usable piece this year (bottom 6 fwd with size that can skate), blue chip fwd prospect, and a pick...something along those lines.

I still think they can find a spot for Rozy. Don't care what the return is: a 7th, a career farmhand, whatever.
stashu
Buffalo Sabres
Location: SC
Joined: 06.04.2008

Jul 10 @ 8:16 AM ET
And what if they don't?

And what if Toews gets a career ending concussion in two years?

Saad is RFA - even if he thinks he's worth $5MM, he's not likely to get it.

If Sharp gets injured - LTIR, cap problem solved. Next man up.

Too many what-ifs - have to play the hand you're dealt.

- StLBravesFan


Compensation for an accepted offer sheet for 5 million = 1st and 3rd round pick.

If some good team who regularly has a pick in the 20+ range every year takes a flyer (or even teams who draft out of the top 10, though it depends on the upcoming lottery changes), Saad could EASILY be getting offers that high and either force Chicago to match or lose him and wait for new picks to develop.
paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Jul 10 @ 8:19 AM ET
The rights to Kevin Hayes for Getzlaf!

Wonder if the FL thing has any legs.

I can see both sides of the argument but I wouldn't mind moving Sharp now if it gets you a usable piece this year (bottom 6 fwd with size that can skate), blue chip fwd prospect, and a pick...something along those lines.

I still think they can find a spot for Rozy. Don't care what the return is: a 7th, a career farmhand, whatever.

- HawkintheD

Oh I think the Hawks would need to add a least a 4th round pick to round out that deal, especially if they want Anaheim to retain 3/4 of Getzlaf's salary.
mrpaulish
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Itasca, IL
Joined: 01.18.2010

Jul 10 @ 8:20 AM ET
The rights to Kevin Hayes for Getzlaf!

Wonder if the FL thing has any legs.

I can see both sides of the argument but I wouldn't mind moving Sharp now if it gets you a usable piece this year (bottom 6 fwd with size that can skate), blue chip fwd prospect, and a pick...something along those lines.

I still think they can find a spot for Rozy. Don't care what the return is: a 7th, a career farmhand, whatever.

- HawkintheD



I dunno . Well see.


They have to ask cap floor teams if they want Rozy and or Versteeg first..... then move o to Leddy for higher picks , if its Oduya then Picks and Prospect , if it has to be Sharp you want a couple of high picks and either a nice prospect or a couple of high picks and an impact bottom 6 player that hits and pks.

All of the above listed sugguestions are for salary cap relief
mrpaulish
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Itasca, IL
Joined: 01.18.2010

Jul 10 @ 8:21 AM ET
Oh I think the Hawks would need to add a least a 4th round pick to round out that deal, especially if they want Anaheim to retain 3/4 of Getzlaf's salary.
- paulr



paulr
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: YYZ
Joined: 06.26.2011

Jul 10 @ 8:21 AM ET
Compensation for an accepted offer sheet for 5 million = 1st and 3rd round pick.

If some good team who regularly has a pick in the 20+ range every year takes a flyer (or even teams who draft out of the top 10, though it depends on the upcoming lottery changes), Saad could EASILY be getting offers that high and either force Chicago to match or lose him and wait for new picks to develop.

- stashu

You were dead wrong about Kane going to Buffalo, are you trying to go 0 and 2 with your Saad prediction?
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Jul 10 @ 8:22 AM ET
Compensation for an accepted offer sheet for 5 million = 1st and 3rd round pick.

If some good team who regularly has a pick in the 20+ range every year takes a flyer (or even teams who draft out of the top 10, though it depends on the upcoming lottery changes), Saad could EASILY be getting offers that high and either force Chicago to match or lose him and wait for new picks to develop.

- stashu


All the more reason to see if you can get him to sign a deal this year.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Jul 10 @ 8:23 AM ET

1/2 the Canadian TV money is already computed into the cap for this year. When they add in the second 1/2 of the deal ($1.6m per team) it will help in boosting the cap to $71.5m next year (the 5% increase projected by Bettman).
.

- spatso


I am gonna jump around and reply to various comments so no one think I am answering just you.

That Cap will be more like 75 million.

But yes...no matter decison will need to be made prior to 2015-16 because they got either decide if Kruger is a integral piece who wants to stay or too much of a luxury.

I am sure if Saad continues his development, he will be looked at quite differently, but you don't know...if he backslides...he goes from future core to a bartering chip FOR a veteran star that keeps the Indian Engine pushing to win Cups now.

...and again I ma not taliking about NOW, because Sharp I believe goes nowhere now.

I don't think Sharp's age or injuries have much to do with his desirability. Teams simply don't have sharpshooters and road tested vets, and when you see even physical players slow and older like Iginla making solid coin,it is a fallacy to think Sharp's deal scares away GMs. (Again not comparing styles in the two players, but which guy gives you a more valuable game goalscorer or veteran physicality?)

The future necessary subtraction will continue to be necessary and will be tied to Hossa's fitness and play, and whether he wants to be a hawk ambassador sooner or later.

BUT what I think was JJ entire point of the topic is EVENTUALLY that Cap plateaus a couple years down the road. AND THE RE-STOCK IS BETTER TO COME FROM INSIDE.

And then you basically are going to have to have true subtractions from maybe even your defensive core. I am talking about Keith Seabrook Hammer.

All these alarms going off now by many here are comical...
here is Pittsburgh with these two hefty superstar deals in place and they still are spending 4 mil to get "Ehrhoffed" while they still have the midget Letang?

You will noticed their farm hasn't produced the bottom six (that JJ is afraid our farm may "only" have) so they quickly saw the weakness and attempted a re-load there...by trade.

This idea that Sharp's value now or next year changes is faulty.

Your core defenders will always get you a nice return, because it doesn't take a genius to look at the other NHL team rosters and see Darryl Sutter's comments about the hawks "having four top pair defenders" is a slight exaggeration, until you see many teams don't have ONE as good.

So JJ, they need to eventually find replacements down on the farm.

and in my other post never mention Trevor van RIEMSDYK.

He has great edging a defender needs, and granted, a late bloomer undrafted, but the connection via his brother means he knows what needs to be done. (Please not time to hit with the signing of Toews' brother, ok?)

You don't seek and sign guys like this unless you think they got upside to be NHLers.
I don't think he was added to round out Rockford's roster, like Cody Bass' fists were.

So they are positioning themselve to develop lesser defenders for the eventual and necessary subtractions of the higher contracted core.

But it's too early for all the knotted panties here in terms of NOW, and all this thinking that say Montrela (who MUST feel on an upswing...one series away from the Cup) is gonna start subtraction rostered youngsters for Hawk vets NOW.

That's more fanboy trading where home team fans think eacg and evet other team has each and every player on their roster available for our phone call.
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