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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: The High Price Of Success
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busmaster
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 08.06.2010

Jul 8 @ 1:34 PM ET
If the worst we would lose in the next two years is Marcus Kruger, Johnny Oduya, Nick Leddy, Andrew Shaw, Patrick Sharp, Versteeg, or Bickell, it would not be too bad.

I think in a year, between HArtman, McNeil, Danault, Nordstrom and Morin we can replace Kruger, Shaw and Versteeg.

Oduya will be a loss, but he and Leddy can be replaced with Johns, Dahlbeck, Clendenning and Rundblad.

Am I saying that any of these guys are definitely going to pan out? We still have doubts that Leddy, Bickell and Shaw are panning out and we want to ship versteeg out for a bag of pucks so lets not come back in three years with the revisionist history that we had such great depth.

The point is, for every legitimate piece that gets moved, we have two or three legitimate candidates to fill his position. And in the salary cap age, this is the best you can hope for.
Kudos to Stanbo, etc...
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Jul 8 @ 1:35 PM ET
I realize I'll get slapped around for this but......

I feel great about Bergy's contract. $6.5 for eight starting this season.

I hope Krejic dosent get stupid and ask for $10.

- JIwasinskiJr

That'd make me nervous, love him as a player, but lots of wear and tear on that body for 8 more years.

Krejic can ask, but that seems like a bad deal waiting to happen.
tredbrta
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.30.2012

Jul 8 @ 1:35 PM ET
I did qualify it by saying have to have to pipeline produce on an NHL level.

I'm really saying that maybe this year is a competitive team, but then - IF THINGS GO RIGHT - there are some transition years ahead, and AT BEST they are contending again in 2017-2018.

- StLBravesFan


Contending organizations do not simply "write off" 2-3 years unless they are rebuilding. That is the path to mediocrity.

"Transition years" is essentially double speak for "wait until next year or the year after".

Let's hope this does not happen. Otherwise "One Goal" should become "One Goal in 2 -3 years if things go right".
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jul 8 @ 1:37 PM ET
So would Kane and Toews signing "hurt" the hawks in the future? Is that what you're saying.

I'm just curious.

Do you like the thought of having them signed long term for that much?

- RobitailleFAN20



Doesn't hurt, but do the math.

The higher the portion of your cap you commit to existing assets (who will probably not get better), then the less you have to commit to the rest of your roster or any real improvement. Unless you hit on a lot of draft picks who can meaningfully contribute under ELC's.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 8 @ 1:39 PM ET
I thought they didn't use the TV money this year and that's what kept it at 69, instead of 70+
- eburgio


I think:

Cap was going to be $68; for some reason they could move some of next year's new TV money I to this year - enough make the cap $70.

Players union didn't like this because it would have increase the escrow amount.

After negotiations, they settled on bringing half of the allowed TV money forward to get the cap to $69.
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Jul 8 @ 1:42 PM ET
Mikhail Yakubov?
- DarthKane

That's the one, man it sucked back then!
Quicky72
Joined: 08.31.2013

Jul 8 @ 1:43 PM ET
Maybe the plan is for TT to replace Kane eventually. TT works out at wing and it's Kane's contract that gets moved next year or the following. Not saying I want that to happen but it could be a contingency they have in mind.
tredbrta
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.30.2012

Jul 8 @ 1:44 PM ET
Brown Stoll and Williams could have gotten more on the open market. When they signed
- RobitailleFAN20




And Kane and Toews wouldn't????

The number being reported is too high but still a discount.

Come back and GLOAT if Williams and Kopitar sign at numbers below the obvious market.
Walky
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IA
Joined: 04.28.2011

Jul 8 @ 1:45 PM ET
Doesn't hurt, but do the math.

The higher the portion of your cap you commit to existing assets (who will probably not get better), then the less you have to commit to the rest of your roster or any real improvement. Unless you hit on a lot of draft picks who can meaningfully contribute under ELC's.

- John Jaeckel

Realistically this is what the hawks have been drafting and signing out of college. Unless a very high skill player has fallen to them (TT and saad) they have picked guys who play defense and have a minimum projection of NHL depth player. Some don't work out (LeBlah) some do (Hartman, Mcneil, Danault, Dahlbeck, Johns. The hawks have set themselves up to replace their depth. They don't need more star players for now. Maybe 4 years from now will need to replace a Hossa but for now they only have to worry about depth.
DK002
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Evanston, IL
Joined: 06.12.2012

Jul 8 @ 1:45 PM ET
Dunno, but to me, the next couple of years (and maybe this summer too) will be the true test of this front office. They've had a lot of gimmes since 2009-10.

Now, success will be a lot harder to maintain on the ice.

- John Jaeckel


Spot on JJ. Bowman and company were gift wrapped the first Cup and had the core in place for the 2nd. While Bowman et all have done a nice job filling in and adding they've also made some big time mistakes as well. Steve Montador leaps to mind as well as several others. The true test is coming and depends on whether they have drafted well enough to keep the talent coming in around the soon to be updated core.

And while we'd like to think that our boys would take a hometown discount there's pressure from the union and the agents et all to push through and set a new ceiling for players. Of course the flip side being once these deals are signed and the cap goes up in the coming seasons hopefully these look like team friendly deals by the middle of the term of them. There may very well be a couple of off seasons until the Cap catches up to these deals.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 8 @ 1:46 PM ET
If the worst we would lose in the next two years is Marcus Kruger, Johnny Oduya, Nick Leddy, Andrew Shaw, Patrick Sharp, Versteeg, or Bickell, it would not be too bad.

I think in a year, between HArtman, McNeil, Danault, Nordstrom and Morin we can replace Kruger, Shaw and Versteeg.

Oduya will be a loss, but he and Leddy can be replaced with Johns, Dahlbeck, Clendenning and Rundblad.

Am I saying that any of these guys are definitely going to pan out? We still have doubts that Leddy, Bickell and Shaw are panning out and we want to ship versteeg out for a bag of pucks so lets not come back in three years with the revisionist history that we had such great depth.

The point is, for every legitimate piece that gets moved, we have two or three legitimate candidates to fill his position. And in the salary cap age, this is the best you can hope for.
Kudos to Stanbo, etc...

- busmaster


If a team can move up two - maybe three - young players to replace more expensive veterans, I would think that would be reason to cheer.

You're talking about replacing 7 important pieces of the puzzle with untested, unproven prospects.
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Jul 8 @ 1:49 PM ET
Doesn't hurt, but do the math.

The higher the portion of your cap you commit to existing assets (who will probably not get better), then the less you have to commit to the rest of your roster or any real improvement. Unless you hit on a lot of draft picks who can meaningfully contribute under ELC's.

- John Jaeckel

Don't you think though going forward that only teams with at least 3 or 4 guys on ELCs that really contribute are going to win the cup?
Look at LA this year, all of the cheap guys are going to be paid in the next few years as well. As you said from the beginning, gets tough when you have success.

Its not tough to be Edmonton or Dale in FL and draft in the top 5 every year, spend crazy to get to the floor, and never make the playoffs. Hell I could do that, just give me Wiz's scouting report and I could do that job, and i would only cost a million a year.
JIwasinskiJr
Boston Bruins
Location: Ludlow, MA
Joined: 02.09.2011

Jul 8 @ 1:49 PM ET
That'd make me nervous, love him as a player, but lots of wear and tear on that body for 8 more years.

Krejic can ask, but that seems like a bad deal waiting to happen.

- vabeachbear


I agree, which makes the Seguin trade seem silly now. We probably should have traded Krejic.
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Jul 8 @ 1:50 PM ET
Maybe the plan is for TT to replace Kane eventually. TT works out at wing and it's Kane's contract that gets moved next year or the following. Not saying I want that to happen but it could be a contingency they have in mind.
- Quicky72

That sir, may cost you a BAN!
Quicky72
Joined: 08.31.2013

Jul 8 @ 1:52 PM ET


And Kane and Toews wouldn't????

The number being reported is too high but still a discount.

Come back and GLOAT if Williams and Kopitar sign at numbers below the obvious market.

- tredbrta


I don't understand why people expect a "home town discount." This is a business. A player has every right to seek where is his perceived value is the greatest. Why would anybody expect them to give any team a discount? The reverse doesn't exist, no team gives a player a home town pay raise. If a player decides to sign with the team for less money because of other factors that are important to them, great, enjoy the cap savings. But to expect or be disappointed because one of your favorite players actually wants to be paid what their value is that is your problem, not theirs. All other factors being equal everyone here would chose the job that pays more.
Ersberg
Season Ticket Holder
Los Angeles Kings
Joined: 05.26.2009

Jul 8 @ 1:53 PM ET


And Kane and Toews wouldn't????

The number being reported is too high but still a discount.

Come back and GLOAT if Williams and Kopitar sign at numbers below the obvious market.

- tredbrta


Kopitar might get a slight bump, but his large contract was signed prior to him really accomplishing anything. It was a pure gamble. Williams, on the other hand, is a veteran, and with age, will likely carry roughly the same contract. If Williams does get a raise, it'll be <$1/m per in addition to his current salary.
Quicky72
Joined: 08.31.2013

Jul 8 @ 1:54 PM ET
That sir, may cost you a BAN!
- vabeachbear


I agree, suggesting such a thing should be a banable offence.
busmaster
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 08.06.2010

Jul 8 @ 1:54 PM ET
If a team can move up two - maybe three - young players to replace more expensive veterans, I would think that would be reason to cheer.

You're talking about replacing 7 important pieces of the puzzle with untested, unproven prospects.

- StLBravesFan


First off, you're not losing all those guys. Maybe 3-4. Second, thats the beauty of having multiple candidates for each opening. Legitimate candidates. Candidates that may have upside the incumbents don't. 2015 will indeed be tough... But we will have better depth in the system than we did in 2011-2012.

If we can get away with losing two of Rosival, Versteeg and LEddy to get under the cap now, with TT's maturation we will be in better shape to lose Sharp in 2015. And that might be all we need with Saad's bridge coming in cheap...
BearsnHawks
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: TX
Joined: 07.01.2012

Jul 8 @ 1:54 PM ET
I'd offer you Greening, Prince (good prospect) and Gryba (depth D man) + Dal 2014 2nd for Sharp. You save a bit of money and get a bit of youth. Ottawa frees up a few bodies and gets a veteran to play on our top line...
- riceroni


Lazar, Driedger, and 2015 1st.
gnosox1986
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: FL
Joined: 01.25.2012

Jul 8 @ 1:54 PM ET
Give them each 8yrs/83Mil... Call it a day... Win for the players, without "killing" the Hawks.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Jul 8 @ 1:54 PM ET
I don't understand why people expect a "home town discount." This is a business. A player has every right to seek where is his perceived value is the greatest. Why would anybody expect them to give any team a discount? The reverse doesn't exist, no team gives a player a home town pay raise. If a player decides to sign with the team for less money because of other factors that are important to them, great, enjoy the cap savings. But to expect or be disappointed because one of your favorite players actually wants to be paid what their value is that is your problem, not theirs. All other factors being equal everyone here would chose the job that pays more.
- Quicky72


There is no "$" in TEAM

Unless there is no cap
FourFeathers773
Joined: 12.02.2011

Jul 8 @ 1:55 PM ET
Kane and Toews are great and all

BUT

If these deals go through around this number, $10.8, I need to see more from them.

And I'm talking like Hart/Art Ross/Another cup type of production

You want to eat top coin? They better earn it moving FORWARD, not constantly pointing to the cups of yesteryear
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Jul 8 @ 1:56 PM ET
Lazar, Driedger, and 2015 1st.
- BearsnHawks



I still want Zack Smith included in any deal with Ottawa. He's a great depth centre with a decent cap hit for 3 more seasons.
EnzoD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Denver, CO
Joined: 02.19.2014

Jul 8 @ 1:58 PM ET
this year 19/88 will eat up 18.2% of the cap...with a 73-75mil cap next year Toews/Kane would eat up about 29% of the cap at 10.8mil each...I dont see how they can ask for such an huge portion of the salary cap for two players and expect that this team will not suffer as a result..that is the difference between 4 conference finals & 2 cups in 6 years and 1 stanley cup in six years(Pittsburgh is a great example of much too top heavy team).

9-9.5 mil would be around 23-25% of the cap and give the Hawks at least another solid depth player each year with that 3+mil in space

just for consideration...OVI makes only 13% of the cap & Crosby 12% and that is THIS YEAR..that % will fall with each rise in the Cap....Toews/Kane would each be more costly than OVI and Crosby individually
BearsnHawks
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: TX
Joined: 07.01.2012

Jul 8 @ 1:58 PM ET
If a team can move up two - maybe three - young players to replace more expensive veterans, I would think that would be reason to cheer.

You're talking about replacing 7 important pieces of the puzzle with untested, unproven prospects.

- StLBravesFan


Its either gonna have to be young guys, or vets willing to take close to league minimum.
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