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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: The High Price Of Success
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Blackwater13
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 05.09.2010

Jul 9 @ 4:58 PM ET
What's the feeling on the signings?

Great to have them back... but that's a lot of cap space.

Kinda sucks... I thought the might do 8.5 million.

- jimmc7722


8.5? Last CBA yeah but not now and not with the cap as high as it is.
FourFeathers773
Joined: 12.02.2011

Jul 9 @ 5:03 PM ET
Harvey Fialkov ‏@hfialkov 12m
Panthers GM Tallon is trying to trade some or organizations' "assets" for a goal scorer. #flapanthers
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Jul 9 @ 5:03 PM ET
Tavares at 5.5M is highway robbery. And he still has, what, 3 years left on that deal?
- eburgio


How do you think these signings impact the rights to Kevin Hayes?
mrpaulish
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Itasca, IL
Joined: 01.18.2010

Jul 9 @ 5:04 PM ET
Harvey Fialkov ‏@hfialkov 12m
Panthers GM Tallon is trying to trade some or organizations' "assets" for a goal scorer. #flapanthers

- FourFeathers773



dprice818
Los Angeles Kings
Location: CA
Joined: 08.16.2011

Jul 9 @ 5:05 PM ET
8.5? Last CBA yeah but not now and not with the cap as high as it is.
- Blackwater13

see Perry Getzlaf contracts. I thought 9.5 would be reasonable. Mild overpayment in my opinion
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Jul 9 @ 5:07 PM ET

- mrpaulish


He wants Versteeg back!
The-O-G
Calgary Flames
Joined: 11.29.2011

Jul 9 @ 5:07 PM ET
How do you think these signings impact the rights to Kevin Hayes?
- HawkintheD


Might as well just trade them to Calgary
FourFeathers773
Joined: 12.02.2011

Jul 9 @ 5:09 PM ET

- mrpaulish


Seriously, ship the rights to Kevin Hayes + Sharp

for

Bjugstad and a pick
NewToHockey
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.23.2010

Jul 9 @ 5:12 PM ET
see Perry Getzlaf contracts. I thought 9.5 would be reasonable. Mild overpayment in my opinion
- dprice818

Perhaps. Then again, the Crawford contract was about a $1M overpay, IMO. The Bickell contract was about a $1M overpay, IMO. How many million dollar overpays can one GM have in a hard cap world?
eburgio
Location: SF, CA
Joined: 07.18.2011

Jul 9 @ 5:17 PM ET
How do you think these signings impact the rights to Kevin Hayes?
- HawkintheD


you have no soul!
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jul 9 @ 5:19 PM ET
No problem with the deals.

I will now sit back and watch the panic ensue as the night crew comes in and goes crazy about it.

Next shoe to drop will be THE trade needed to be made for this year. I wouldn't be shocked to see a high money guy moved NOW to eliminate quantity over quality come next summer. Oduya or Sharp comes to mind.

Hawks at 65.7 with 7-8 spots needed to be filled. Numerous outlets saying a very substantial cap rise...so maybe a 75 million cap isn't out of the question next year. That leaves almost 10 million for 7 guys...or possibly 13-15 for 7 guy and I know you have to resign a saad and Oduya vs Leddy. What I also think will be interesting to note is IF they resign Kruger. He could be the one most easily replaced IF he's expecting a substantial raise.
CaptainBlackhawk
Joined: 01.29.2010

Jul 9 @ 5:23 PM ET
Perhaps. Then again, the Crawford contract was about a $1M overpay, IMO. The Bickell contract was about a $1M overpay, IMO. How many million dollar overpays can one GM have in a hard cap world?
- NewToHockey


Yes. Stan Bowman is just handing out "overpays" by a million dollars.. just cause.

These weren't overpays. The contracts he referred (the Ducks players) to were in a salary cap world that was less than what it is now and what it is expected to bounce to in the coming years.
Gretz2Kurri
Los Angeles Kings
Location: CA
Joined: 01.19.2014

Jul 9 @ 5:27 PM ET
Wasn't the cap supposed to keep salaries down? At this rate every team will have two players making 20 mil a piece and a bunch of scrubs filling in the gaps. I'm for players getting paid, but after 5 mil a year it's just a pissing contest between them.
Would player caps work better?
eburgio
Location: SF, CA
Joined: 07.18.2011

Jul 9 @ 5:28 PM ET
No problem with the deals.

I will now sit back and watch the panic ensue as the night crew comes in and goes crazy about it.

Next shoe to drop will be THE trade needed to be made for this year. I wouldn't be shocked to see a high money guy moved NOW to eliminate quantity over quality come next summer. Oduya or Sharp comes to mind.

Hawks at 65.7 with 7-8 spots needed to be filled. Numerous outlets saying a very substantial cap rise...so maybe a 75 million cap isn't out of the question next year. That leaves almost 10 million for 7 guys...or possibly 13-15 for 7 guy and I know you have to resign a saad and Oduya vs Leddy. What I also think will be interesting to note is IF they resign Kruger. He could be the one most easily replaced IF he's expecting a substantial raise.

- SteveRain


I think the shrewd move would be to trade Sharp now. I think the prudent move would be to trade players that don't help you much this year, and aren't in the plans long term (Versteeg, Rozsival, maybe Leddy) and deal with Sharp later.

This team as currently constructed as one more run at the Cup. I don't believe trading Sharp helps your chances this year. But removing 32 and 23 from the equation, I think you could probably replace what they bring. Problem is, will anyone take them?
FourFeathers773
Joined: 12.02.2011

Jul 9 @ 5:30 PM ET
I think the shrewd move would be to trade Sharp now. I think the prudent move would be to trade players that don't help you much this year, and aren't in the plans long term (Versteeg, Rozsival, maybe Leddy) and deal with Sharp later.

This team as currently constructed as one more run at the Cup. I don't believe trading Sharp helps your chances this year. But removing 32 and 23 from the equation, I think you could probably replace what they bring. Problem is, will anyone take them?

- eburgio


I think if you could trade Sharp for a player like Bjugstad now, you need to jump all over it.

If its something like Sharp for picks and prospects at 18 or 19 still marinading, I would wait until next year as well
mrpaulish
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Itasca, IL
Joined: 01.18.2010

Jul 9 @ 5:30 PM ET
Wasn't the cap supposed to keep salaries down? At this rate every team will have two players making 20 mil a piece and a bunch of scrubs filling in the gaps. I'm for players getting paid, but after 5 mil a year it's just a pissing contest between them.
Would player caps work better?

- Gretz2Kurri



If you think about it Salaries are down. Players at 8m+ now are fewer than player 8m aav in 1999
ArlingtonRob
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 230 years was a good run, IL
Joined: 01.20.2012

Jul 9 @ 5:31 PM ET
I think Dean Lombardi sees things the same way. Picking up Carter and Richards long contracts and giving Brown Kopi and Quick long contracts, he was criticized for the amounts and lengths. Now he looks like a genius because the contracts always get bigger and the cap will always go up.
- dprice818


The T/K deals are a bit of a shock when looking at the current cap and comparables around the league...heck, I expected something around 9 - 9.5...but the only thing that matters going forward is growth of the salary cap.

If the cap exceeds 80M by 2016 these deals will look fine...assuming the twins are still healthy, kick'n azz and collecting hardware.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Jul 9 @ 5:32 PM ET
I have waited to chime in on the prospects.

John, read what you wrote and understand completely to your reasoning in matters of prospect accession.
We all know that most draft years provide only of few rare impact players, some top line guys, and despite the pre-draft hype mostly quality NHL players who more or less get picked in the top 13 slots.
If you are good, you don't get the same assurances teams picking earlier do. Even if the teams mess up and guys selected later come on quicker or the pass on what later is clearly a better player, by and large, they do get a rostered guy eventually.

Some draft years that might happen for almost the entire round.

Other years if you are picking where the hawks have, you judge character, toolbox and skills in junior and have to hope the young guy has the gumption, head, and tenacity to not quit on their dream.

I may have followed/watched many of the names you mentioned more than most, but have always been the first to say, "Cool your jets, JJ! -Danault woun't be there THAT quick."
The March TT love fest was my most recent.

It is nice to think each team's goal is to select a top six wing/top three defender each draft. But the development and maturation process is transparent by simply looking at Edmonton.

We all know the arrival of Shaw as a spot player role guy has been a big addition.

And it is impossible to dismiss Brandon Saad as an equal to any of the past drafts selections in the late top ten.
To me Saad has lots and lots of upside.
And I am very willing to agree with you that there is NO budding superstar down on the farm.
To me, Saad was that guy potentially and time will tell if he can continue to elevate his game, No he is not MacKinnon - few are.
And no he isn't the fireball spark that Drouin might be.

But you usually draft really low for those types, right, so no reason for them to be in the conversation.

I think there has be a big emphasis put on drafting for guys that can play to their speed, whether they are speedsters, or guys that need to get going first, but once going, can handle & work with the puck quickly and effectively.

So now the guy who adamantly preached the slow path to the NHL (the way the wings still really adhere to), me is going to defend the development of McNeill, Danault, and Hartman.
To me it is a moot point to decide at this juncture that they are going to occupy bottom six slots. It doesn't matter right now. NO gimmes, but pretty good indication they are gonna play when strong enough and instinctive enough.
Their inner toughness tells me there aren't quiting.
and tell you what I feel as they do develop in Rockford, they will be guys who will be able to play up and down the forward lines.


You don't have to go further than http://www2.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/
and just peek at say the second line on most NHL teams and you find players of similar ilk making the other two guys a better fit.

So, maybe we don't see the next future 8 mil cap forward there...
and when the Ducks started Ryan Getzlaf for his first full season, three and a half years after drafting him, they probably didn't feel he was gonna want it so badly that he would eventually be a 8 million plus Cap either.

And if each and every Hawk prospect there now or not there yet craps the bed, I think we know what they will do...they trade a top defender for a top forward to make up for it play with "depth" guys in the 5-7 slots.

Or they make room sweep salaries and sign a nice UFA because you still have Toews, Kane and a franchise players want to come to.

I just don't see the panic. Hawks’ current prospect pipeline doesn't have to produce players equal to those they have on their NHL roster, but you would LIKE it to.
There are no guarantees.

I could argue that San Jose's centre Logan Couture hasn't reached the status of their top guys...it doesn't amount to anything. The depth you surround Couture with along with skill determines his impact and their success.

There are many youngsters already in Chicago to build around.

I am certain the the depth and relative upside of the Rockford group ensures they are btter off than mosy organizations.

and don't let that cap hit of the Dymanic Duo scare you.

It is easy to feel these giant 10.5 million deals handcuff things.
(Granted, right now there is need for space)

I just think that you are going to be very surprised by thr jump the Cap will be taken over the course of the next seasons.
That TV deal in Canada is a huge injection of money to each team.
And of course the owners are not going to want to share dollar for dollar with the players. There will be enough to go around.

Oh, and I think that all those low bars you set for the Hawk babies are understandable and good way to proceed thinking about them, but I think it won't take long inro November to see if Johns is a whole lot better than your scouts think, and we will know if the others are progressing because it cerainly looks like a much stronger AHL roster overall.
ArlingtonRob
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 230 years was a good run, IL
Joined: 01.20.2012

Jul 9 @ 5:33 PM ET
Wasn't the cap supposed to keep salaries down? At this rate every team will have two players making 20 mil a piece and a bunch of scrubs filling in the gaps. I'm for players getting paid, but after 5 mil a year it's just a pissing contest between them.
Would player caps work better?

- Gretz2Kurri


The cap, and therefore salaries, are proportional to league revenues. If the NHL continues to grow, and revenues continue to rise, player compensation will increase as well.

Simple economics.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Jul 9 @ 5:34 PM ET
I think the shrewd move would be to trade Sharp now.
- eburgio



If you think this team has enough scoring without him and that the other possible salaried players you also could cast off (Leddy Bickell, Oduya) are more important to the playoff run next 2015.

It is about 2015 first over all other things....isn't it?
PuckAndSticks
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 10.31.2011

Jul 9 @ 5:35 PM ET
Perhaps. Then again, the Crawford contract was about a $1M overpay, IMO. The Bickell contract was about a $1M overpay, IMO. How many million dollar overpays can one GM have in a hard cap world?
- NewToHockey


This, 100% I feel like the one most glaringly obvious area that Bowman sucks at is negotiating. Always settling for the "hometown discount" that the players are giving, never getting the "hometown discount" that the team could really use... Sharp, Bickell, Oduya, Crawford. I cringed at the number attached to all of those deals...

Either way, Toews/Kane deals had to get the done. If you cant really caress the players like Pat Reilly does in south beach, then you can only push them so far until they say, "We'll come back to the table after the season... Maybe ill get a sense of my value on the open market..."
mrpaulish
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Itasca, IL
Joined: 01.18.2010

Jul 9 @ 5:36 PM ET
If you think this team has enough scoring without him and that the other possible salaried players you also could cast off (Leddy Bickell, Oduya) are more important to the playoff run next 2015.

It is about 2015 first over all other things....isn't it?

- wiz1901



It is about 2015.



Who gets moved to free up 3m ?
SteveRain
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Connor Murphy Sucks, IL
Joined: 05.07.2010

Jul 9 @ 5:41 PM ET
I think the shrewd move would be to trade Sharp now. I think the prudent move would be to trade players that don't help you much this year, and aren't in the plans long term (Versteeg, Rozsival, maybe Leddy) and deal with Sharp later.

This team as currently constructed as one more run at the Cup. I don't believe trading Sharp helps your chances this year. But removing 32 and 23 from the equation, I think you could probably replace what they bring. Problem is, will anyone take them?

- eburgio


Yeah...and that is THE problem.
When you deduct 85 from the payroll....they are at 1.3 and change over.

I think Rozsival has more trade value then Versteeg. You will need Versteeg for 2 more years at 2.2 to give you a decent depth player. Rozsival is gone after this year. I would package him and a PROSPECT who might be ranked high but is blocked or who the organization isnt' high on. The Braves did this all the time in their hay day. Trade valued guys who never amounted to crap.

Again.....every moaning for a hometown discount keeps ignoring the fact it was never going to happen AND it's Bowman's job to make this all work. As John alluded to, now the gloves are off in regards to the prospects. Now it's a matter of how quickly Stan's vaunted prospects can make the team, AND give them the quality depth they will need to maximize Q's model of play.
eburgio
Location: SF, CA
Joined: 07.18.2011

Jul 9 @ 5:41 PM ET
If you think this team has enough scoring without him and that the other possible salaried players you also could cast off (Leddy Bickell, Oduya) are more important to the playoff run next 2015.

It is about 2015 first over all other things....isn't it?

- wiz1901


I've been pretty adamant that they shouldn't trade Sharp, because I am NOT comfortable with Saad and Bickell as the #1 and 2 LW's going into the season.

However, with that said, if the Organization believes they will get far more for Sharp this year, as opposed to next, that would classify as a shrewd move. I never thought they needed big moves for the offseason and I feel the same way now.
Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Jul 9 @ 5:41 PM ET
Jerks!!!


- stashu

We can trade him to Buff now. Both 2015 first rounders you have and your best D prospect.
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