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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: The High Price Of Success
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golfbard
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: NY
Joined: 06.22.2007

Jul 8 @ 12:59 PM ET
Dunno, but to me, the next couple of years (and maybe this summer too) will be the true test of this front office. They've had a lot of gimmes since 2009-10.

Now, success will be a lot harder to maintain on the ice.

- John Jaeckel



Plus they have to hope to create a bidding war for this talent which will be tough since teams know they can't keep them, thus diminishing their leverage.
RobitailleFAN20
Los Angeles Kings
Location: LA Kings fan since 1996. Favorite palyers Luc Robitaille & Rob Blake, CA
Joined: 06.22.2014

Jul 8 @ 1:01 PM ET
Dave Bolland disagrees with the bolded
- eburgio

Him and clarkson were the first names that popped in my head haha

But seriously to the Kings organization brown got a discount.

Like I said I'm not a fan of it.
eburgio
Location: SF, CA
Joined: 07.18.2011

Jul 8 @ 1:01 PM ET
I think there's a huge difference between taking a step backwards for a year or maybe 2, and never being able to win again. I see a lot of worried fans who are acting like next season is the last season we'll EVER get a chance to see the Hawks compete deep in the playoffs with Kane and Toews.

What happened after 2010? Well, we got (frank)ed by the cap, and then slowly rebuilt a contender again. Why cant that happen again? Same core pieces to build around(only probly minus Sharp and hopefully +Saad). Same GM. Another deep group of hopeful prospects to fill in depth roles...

Will we win the Cup in 2015-16? Probly not. But to act like "oh no, one more year and then its over for good" is really idiotic IMO.

- SimpleJack


It's also naive to think the Front Office didn't have a contingency plan in place for every scenario. The gloom and doom is a little premature, though I'm sure would be tempered by a little more optimism coming from the minors. If there was one more projected top-6 forward down in the AHL, it would certainly help
Antilles
St Louis Blues
Joined: 10.17.2008

Jul 8 @ 1:01 PM ET
If (IF) the number is $10.8 each:

Additional cap space for Toews / Kane - $9.0
Additional cap space for Saad / Kruger - $2.0 (optimistic?)
Amount over cap this year - $2.2
Cap increase next year (5%) ($3.5)

Net amount of cap space they will have to recover by next summer to be even with the cap: $9.7MM

If the cap goes up by 5% each year, we're looking at a cap of about:

$69 this year
$72.4 next year
$76 in 2016-2017
$79.9 in 2017-2018

As I said yesterday, I think we're looking at a 3-year transition before we can really see a Cup-contending team - have to have the cap somewhat catch up with the cap hits, and have the prospects / Rockford pipeline produce on an NHL level.

- StLBravesFan


The new Canadian TV deal kicks in for 14/15, which I believe means you will see it bump up the cap for 15/16. That, on it's own, is good for a couple million cap raise for 15/16 outside the reasonable estimate of 5% growth you suggest.
RoloTahmasee
Joined: 07.24.2009

Jul 8 @ 1:03 PM ET
So would Kane and Toews signing "hurt" the hawks in the future? Is that what you're saying.

I'm just curious.

Do you like the thought of having them signed long term for that much?

- RobitailleFAN20


Keep in mind that even if the cap goes up 5-10 million in the next few years, the cost of those "role players" will be going up too

Crosby looking like an absolute steal at 8.7 million right now
eburgio
Location: SF, CA
Joined: 07.18.2011

Jul 8 @ 1:04 PM ET
The new Canadian TV deal kicks in for 14/15, which I believe means you will see it bump up the cap for 15/16. That, on it's own, is good for a couple million cap raise for 15/16 outside the reasonable estimate of 5% growth you suggest.
- Antilles


The cap went up 7% this year (from 64.3 to 69) with a weak Canadian dollar and without the additional TV revenue from the Rogers deal. Unless the economy takes a giant deuce, we should see at least 7% next year. 5 seems conservative to me, but I realize Bettman mentioned 5% (though he's been wrong before)
teh_HAWKZ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 07.03.2012

Jul 8 @ 1:08 PM ET
Keep in mind that even if the cap goes up 5-10 million in the next few years, the cost of those "role players" will be going up too

Crosby looking like an absolute steal at 8.7 million right now

- RoloTahmasee


For one cup 5 years ago and 0 conn smythes the money makes sense I guess.
RobitailleFAN20
Los Angeles Kings
Location: LA Kings fan since 1996. Favorite palyers Luc Robitaille & Rob Blake, CA
Joined: 06.22.2014

Jul 8 @ 1:12 PM ET
Keep in mind that even if the cap goes up 5-10 million in the next few years, the cost of those "role players" will be going up too

Crosby looking like an absolute steal at 8.7 million right now

- RoloTahmasee


Yeah no kidding.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 8 @ 1:12 PM ET
The new Canadian TV deal kicks in for 14/15, which I believe means you will see it bump up the cap for 15/16. That, on it's own, is good for a couple million cap raise for 15/16 outside the reasonable estimate of 5% growth you suggest.
- Antilles


They've used part of the new TV money this year, and Bettman has apparently said to plan on 5% for next year.
RobitailleFAN20
Los Angeles Kings
Location: LA Kings fan since 1996. Favorite palyers Luc Robitaille & Rob Blake, CA
Joined: 06.22.2014

Jul 8 @ 1:13 PM ET
Keep in mind that even if the cap goes up 5-10 million in the next few years, the cost of those "role players" will be going up too

Crosby looking like an absolute steal at 8.7 million right now

- RoloTahmasee

Yeah this is what I was thinking players like saad will be getting around 4 million IMO. That kid is awesome.
LeaderofthePAEK
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 01.16.2007

Jul 8 @ 1:15 PM ET
Yeah this is what I was thinking players like saad will be getting around 4 million IMO. That kid is awesome.
- RobitailleFAN20



They're just gonna have to send him home to Pittsburgh to clear space. That's the only logical thing they can do....
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Jul 8 @ 1:18 PM ET
Oh yes, I agree

Ahhhhh for the days of Pavel "Prehistoric SpongeBob" Vorobiev . . .

- John Jaeckel

nah the other one, can't remember his name right off top of my head, oh ya, and Mark Bell
eburgio
Location: SF, CA
Joined: 07.18.2011

Jul 8 @ 1:18 PM ET
They've used part of the new TV money this year, and Bettman has apparently said to plan on 5% for next year.
- StLBravesFan


I thought they didn't use the TV money this year and that's what kept it at 69, instead of 70+
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Jul 8 @ 1:18 PM ET
They're just gonna have to send him home to Pittsburgh to clear space. That's the only logical thing they can do....
- LeaderofthePAEK


For the same $$$/contracts we'll send you Rozy and Versteeg; and we don't even need anything back unless your feeling generous. Say a 7th!
SimpleJack
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago , IL
Joined: 05.23.2013

Jul 8 @ 1:19 PM ET
It's also naive to think the Front Office didn't have a contingency plan in place for every scenario. The gloom and doom is a little premature, though I'm sure would be tempered by a little more optimism coming from the minors. If there was one more projected top-6 forward down in the AHL, it would certainly help
- eburgio


Yeah but when u look at it, the Hawks core and their top 6 will still be loaded with elite talent for the next 2-3 years. Toews, Kane, Hossa, Saad, Keith, Seabs, Hammer is as great of a foundation as anyone has. What they will really need are an abundance of guys to replace players like Shaw, Kruger, Versteeg, Oduya, Rozsival, etc. I think it would be unrealistic and overly ambitious to expect to have the best current core in the league AND multiple top-6 forward caliber prospects waiting in line. We're lucky as it is to have someone with the future potential like TT, AND a guy like Saad develop as fast as he has.
Antilles
St Louis Blues
Joined: 10.17.2008

Jul 8 @ 1:19 PM ET
The cap went up 7% this year (from 64.3 to 69) with a weak Canadian dollar and without the additional TV revenue from the Rogers deal. Unless the economy takes a giant deuce, we should see at least 7% next year. 5 seems conservative to me, but I realize Bettman mentioned 5% (though he's been wrong before)
- eburgio


Last year's cap was a conservative guess by the CBA IIRC, because the season it was based on was lock out shortened. 7% raise in cap does not equal a 7% raise in revenue so it's not useful as a predictor for the future.
BreakoutHockey
Location: Chicago area, IL
Joined: 06.12.2012

Jul 8 @ 1:21 PM ET
So I went through a bit of a thought exercise yesterday and came up with the following roster for 2015-16 at a $73mil cap hit. Granted, this is assuming $9.5mil cap hits for Toews and Kane that now seem a bit optimistic, but still, here it goes (I have indicated my estimated "new cap hits" for players that need new contracts for '15-'16)

1. Sharp- Toews (9.5mil)- Hossa
2. Saad ($4mil) -Teravainen- Kane (9.5mil)
3. Shaw - Kruger (2.5mil) - Smith
4. Morin - Nordstrom (1.25mil) -Hartman/McNeill

1. Keith-Hjalmarsson
2. Leddy (3.5mil)-Seabrook
3. Rundblad-Johns/Dahlbeck

1. Crawford
2. Raanta

You can plug in your own prospects of choice if you don't think the ones I included will pan out, but that is not an awful team if they develop as hoped. By then Smith, Morin, and hopefully Nordstron should be established 3rd-4th line NHLers.

It could work, it might not, but it is a bit of a look at what the team *could* look like in a few years.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Jul 8 @ 1:23 PM ET
nah the other one, can't remember his name right off top of my head, oh ya, and Mark Bell
- vabeachbear



Mikhail Yakubov?
RobitailleFAN20
Los Angeles Kings
Location: LA Kings fan since 1996. Favorite palyers Luc Robitaille & Rob Blake, CA
Joined: 06.22.2014

Jul 8 @ 1:26 PM ET
So I went through a bit of a thought exercise yesterday and came up with the following roster for 2015-16 at a $73mil cap hit. Granted, this is assuming $9.5mil cap hits for Toews and Kane that now seem a bit optimistic, but still, here it goes (I have indicated my estimated "new cap hits" for players that need new contracts for '15-'16)

1. Sharp- Toews (9.5mil)- Hossa
2. Saad ($4mil) -Teravainen- Kane (9.5mil)
3. Shaw - Kruger (2.5mil) - Smith
4. Morin - Nordstrom (1.25mil) -Hartman/McNeill

1. Keith-Hjalmarsson
2. Leddy (3.5mil)-Seabrook
3. Rundblad-Johns/Dahlbeck

1. Crawford
2. Raanta

You can plug in your own prospects of choice if you don't think the ones I included will pan out, but that is not an awful team if they develop as hoped. By then Smith, Morin, and hopefully Nordstron should be established 3rd-4th line NHLers.

It could work, it might not, but it is a bit of a look at what the team *could* look like in a few years.

- BreakoutHockey

That's a lot of 1/2 year guys being slotted in there.
Is this a lineup for a cup run or building block roster?
riceroni
Ottawa Senators
Location: e5, ON
Joined: 07.29.2009

Jul 8 @ 1:28 PM ET
I'd offer you Greening, Prince (good prospect) and Gryba (depth D man) + Dal 2014 2nd for Sharp. You save a bit of money and get a bit of youth. Ottawa frees up a few bodies and gets a veteran to play on our top line...
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Jul 8 @ 1:29 PM ET
I'd offer you Greening, Prince (good prospect) and Gryba (depth D man) + Dal 2014 2nd for Sharp. You save a bit of money and get a bit of youth. Ottawa frees up a few bodies and gets a veteran to play on our top line...
- riceroni



Smith needs to be part of any package from Ottawa.
mrpaulish
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Itasca, IL
Joined: 01.18.2010

Jul 8 @ 1:29 PM ET
I'd offer you Greening, Prince (good prospect) and Gryba (depth D man) + Dal 2014 2nd for Sharp. You save a bit of money and get a bit of youth. Ottawa frees up a few bodies and gets a veteran to play on our top line...
- riceroni



The Hawks need 3m in cap relief
Ersberg
Season Ticket Holder
Los Angeles Kings
Joined: 05.26.2009

Jul 8 @ 1:31 PM ET
Other than Gaborik, who got term, who else gave these hometown discounts of which you speak?
- eburgio


With Lombardi and Co, plus player agents, knowing full well the cap would increase exponentially? Pick any star on our team.
tredbrta
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.30.2012

Jul 8 @ 1:31 PM ET
Wow, there's SO much that can happen in 3 years. Another bad concussion for Toews. Off-ice trouble for another superstar (just saying, it is rumored to happen now and then). Hossa is 38. And no, they have no one who replaces him.

The Hawks window is open now. it's about to get narrower though. 3-5 years out it is unlikely this will be as good a team, unless they REALLY hit on some draft picks and/or fleece someone in a trade or two.

- John Jaeckel


3 years is an eternity.

$10.8m each is higher as a percentage of the cap than Getzlaf/Perry at the time of their deals. It is too much and will take them out of contention after the needed subtractions.

One can only hope there is a cap increase/s exceeding expectations.

I wasn't there when Hull left but, if this happens, it must be a similar feeling. Only difference, this one is on the 2 players and not the owner.

1) Is it possible the NHLPA wants that $10m ceiling shattered and Brisson, Toews and Kane are playing for the bigger team right now if they take $10.8m?

2) If Kesler had been obtained could the Hawks have signed them for less?

I hope the rumors floating at $10.8m cause feedback to the Kane/Toews/Brisson camp and they consider the impact to further chances at the cup.









JIwasinskiJr
Boston Bruins
Location: Ludlow, MA
Joined: 02.09.2011

Jul 8 @ 1:31 PM ET
I realize I'll get slapped around for this but......

I feel great about Bergy's contract. $6.5 for eight starting this season.

I hope Krejic dosent get stupid and ask for $10.
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