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Forums :: Blog World :: John Jaeckel: The High Price Of Success
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vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Jul 8 @ 12:42 PM ET
Dunno, but to me, the next couple of years (and maybe this summer too) will be the true test of this front office. They've had a lot of gimmes since 2009-10.

Now, success will be a lot harder to maintain on the ice.

- John Jaeckel


And thank god for this, much rather be in this position with 2 cups and a bunch of guys in the pipeline who may or not pan out.

I remember not long ago when they were a perennial loser and had one guy in the pipeline who was going to be the savior!
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jul 8 @ 12:42 PM ET
This has been bugging me for awhile - the Hawks have been one of six teams rumored to be "in" on Brodeur. Granted, I think Brodeur is washed up and would be a terrible signing...

...but why would the Hawks even consider signing Brodeur? Raanta is locked up for the next two years and will not be going down to Rockford. Crawford is locked up long-term.

Could this be a clue - whether it be this summer or next - that Crawford is a potential cap-clearing trade target? Are they entertaining the idea of a Raanta-Brodeur tandem? I would not do it, but I don't see why else they would even be interested in Brodeur.

- BreakoutHockey


No, Waite was brought in at his request. They are committed to Crawford and believe Waite will get him really dialed in. Heard this this morning. Great source.
Johnny22
Los Angeles Kings
Location: Newport Beach, CA
Joined: 01.18.2011

Jul 8 @ 12:42 PM ET
While Toews and Kane are certainly worth the lofty contracts being kicked around, I think if they are to stay in the cup hunt for a long spell, they should take a page out of their chief conference rival LA Kings and give some "hometown discounts" as it were.

If they are going to hold the Hawks hostage at 10 mil each, it will make building a team around them that much harder.
drummer829
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 07.12.2010

Jul 8 @ 12:42 PM ET
Although in a pens fan, I live in chi so I watch quite a bit of games. Giving toews 10.8 a year is arguable, but I think that's a big overpayment for Kane. I may get reamed for this, but sign toews and Kane, and then try trading Kane for the 1st overall pick/Connor mcdavid. Free up 9-10 mil in cap space and then also make a legitimate run after bobby Ryan in free agency (can't imagine him resigning with the sens). Could also go for a couple depth guys as well in case the youngsters aren't ready.

Point is they possibly will get 4 mil raises each, and that will tie Bowman's hands for the next 2 years. Cap may only go up to 74 mil next year. I know guys like oduya, leddy, roszival, or versteeg may come off the books, but some other players are in need of raises as well like saad and shaw and maybe Kruger.
RobitailleFAN20
Los Angeles Kings
Location: LA Kings fan since 1996. Favorite palyers Luc Robitaille & Rob Blake, CA
Joined: 06.22.2014

Jul 8 @ 12:42 PM ET
They'll get more because they are signing their contracts when the salary cap has risen dramatically since the Getzlaf/Perry signings. The market rises as the salary cap does. Period.
- BreakoutHockey

True
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 8 @ 12:43 PM ET
Dunno, but to me, the next couple of years (and maybe this summer too) will be the true test of this front office. They've had a lot of gimmes since 2009-10.

Now, success will be a lot harder to maintain on the ice.

- John Jaeckel


If (IF) the number is $10.8 each:

Additional cap space for Toews / Kane - $9.0
Additional cap space for Saad / Kruger - $2.0 (optimistic?)
Amount over cap this year - $2.2
Cap increase next year (5%) ($3.5)

Net amount of cap space they will have to recover by next summer to be even with the cap: $9.7MM

If the cap goes up by 5% each year, we're looking at a cap of about:

$69 this year
$72.4 next year
$76 in 2016-2017
$79.9 in 2017-2018

As I said yesterday, I think we're looking at a 3-year transition before we can really see a Cup-contending team - have to have the cap somewhat catch up with the cap hits, and have the prospects / Rockford pipeline produce on an NHL level.
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Jul 8 @ 12:43 PM ET
Time to celebrate. The Hawks are re-signing franchise cornerstones heading into their prime instead of packing their bags, ala Roenick & Belfour

- Sconnie

Here Here!
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jul 8 @ 12:43 PM ET
And thank god for this, much rather be in this position with 2 cups and a bunch of guys in the pipeline who may or not pan out.

I remember not long ago when they were a perennial loser and had one guy in the pipeline who was going to be the savior!

- vabeachbear



Oh yes, I agree

Ahhhhh for the days of Pavel "Prehistoric SpongeBob" Vorobiev . . .
dan9189
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: chicago, IL
Joined: 06.29.2009

Jul 8 @ 12:43 PM ET
This has been bugging me for awhile - the Hawks have been one of six teams rumored to be "in" on Brodeur. Granted, I think Brodeur is washed up and would be a terrible signing...

...but why would the Hawks even consider signing Brodeur? Raanta is locked up for the next two years and will not be going down to Rockford. Crawford is locked up long-term.

Could this be a clue - whether it be this summer or next - that Crawford is a potential cap-clearing trade target? Are they entertaining the idea of a Raanta-Brodeur tandem? I would not do it, but I don't see why else they would even be interested in Brodeur.

- BreakoutHockey


After the Khabibulin disaster of 2013-2014, I don't see SB signing another over 40 goalie.
eburgio
Location: SF, CA
Joined: 07.18.2011

Jul 8 @ 12:43 PM ET
While Toews and Kane are certainly worth the lofty contracts being kicked around, I think if they are to stay in the cup hunt for a long spell, they should take a page out of their chief conference rival LA Kings and give some "hometown discounts" as it were.

If they are going to hold the Hawks hostage at 10 mil each, it will make building a team around them that much harder.

- Johnny22


Other than Gaborik, who got term, who else gave these hometown discounts of which you speak?
Not_Yan
St Louis Blues
Location: it's an excellent product, easier, quicker, and even better than real mashed potatoes.
Joined: 04.19.2013

Jul 8 @ 12:45 PM ET

So when are you guys trading us Sharp?
We missed on Vrbata and need a top 6 forward ASAP.
John Jaeckel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: www.the-rink.com
Joined: 11.19.2006

Jul 8 @ 12:46 PM ET
If (IF) the number is $10.8 each:

Additional cap space for Toews / Kane - $9.0
Additional cap space for Saad / Kruger - $2.0 (optimistic?)
Amount over cap this year - $2.2
Cap increase next year (5%) ($3.5)

Net amount of cap space they will have to recover by next summer to be even with the cap: $9.7MM

If the cap goes up by 5% each year, we're looking at a cap of about:

$69 this year
$72.4 next year
$76 in 2016-2017



As I said yesterday, I think we're looking at a 3-year transition before we can really see a Cup-contending team - have to have the cap somewhat catch up with the cap hits, and have the prospects / Rockford pipeline produce on an NHL level.

- StLBravesFan


Wow, there's SO much that can happen in 3 years. Another bad concussion for Toews. Off-ice trouble for another superstar (just saying, it is rumored to happen now and then). Hossa is 38. And no, they have no one who replaces him.

The Hawks window is open now. it's about to get narrower though. 3-5 years out it is unlikely this will be as good a team, unless they REALLY hit on some draft picks and/or fleece someone in a trade or two.
ChrisMS
Joined: 05.02.2012

Jul 8 @ 12:47 PM ET
10.8 each would actually be a bargain. from the rumored 12 each that saves you 2.4 mil... the cost of a decent 3rd liner in the coming years... not bad.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Jul 8 @ 12:48 PM ET
Wow, there's SO much that can happen in 3 years. Another bad concussion for Toews. Off-ice trouble for another superstar (just saying, it is rumored to happen now and then). Hossa is 38. And no, they have no one who replaces him.

The Hawks window is open now. it's about to get narrower though. 3-5 years out it is unlikely this will be as good a team, unless they REALLY hit on some draft picks and/or fleece someone in a trade or two.

- John Jaeckel


I did qualify it by saying have to have to pipeline produce on an NHL level.

I'm really saying that maybe this year is a competitive team, but then - IF THINGS GO RIGHT - there are some transition years ahead, and AT BEST they are contending again in 2017-2018.
mrpaulish
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Itasca, IL
Joined: 01.18.2010

Jul 8 @ 12:49 PM ET
So when are you guys trading us Sharp?
We missed on Vrbata and need a top 6 forward ASAP.

- Not_Yan




Gotta call Stan and wake him up !



Love to have Eller ....
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Jul 8 @ 12:49 PM ET
If (IF) the number is $10.8 each:

Additional cap space for Toews / Kane - $9.0
Additional cap space for Saad / Kruger - $2.0 (optimistic?)
Amount over cap this year - $2.2
Cap increase next year (5%) ($3.5)

Net amount of cap space they will have to recover by next summer to be even with the cap: $9.7MM

If the cap goes up by 5% each year, we're looking at a cap of about:

$69 this year
$72.4 next year
$76 in 2016-2017
$79.9 in 2017-2018

As I said yesterday, I think we're looking at a 3-year transition before we can really see a Cup-contending team - have to have the cap somewhat catch up with the cap hits, and have the prospects / Rockford pipeline produce on an NHL level.

- StLBravesFan


Rozy - 2.2
Versteeg - 2.2
Oduya -3.4
Sharp - 5.9

Recover - 13.7, Kruger and Saad Raises -3, net 10.7.

Still a little tough, but again, a couple from Rockford were always going to need to step up and fill a spot.


RobitailleFAN20
Los Angeles Kings
Location: LA Kings fan since 1996. Favorite palyers Luc Robitaille & Rob Blake, CA
Joined: 06.22.2014

Jul 8 @ 12:50 PM ET
Other than Gaborik, who got term, who else gave these hometown discounts of which you speak?
- eburgio

Brown Stoll and Williams could have gotten more on the open market. When they signed
eburgio
Location: SF, CA
Joined: 07.18.2011

Jul 8 @ 12:51 PM ET
Rozy - 2.2
Versteeg - 2.2
Oduya -3.4
Sharp - 5.9

Recover - 13.7, Kruger and Saad Raises -3, net 10.7.

Still a little tough, but again, a couple from Rockford were always going to need to step up and fill a spot.

- vabeachbear


Saad is probably getting a $3M raise just himself. He's making ~$700k now.

Unless Kruger's game reaches another level, he'll get a marginal increase. Maybe 1.3 to 2.0M?
BreakoutHockey
Location: Chicago area, IL
Joined: 06.12.2012

Jul 8 @ 12:51 PM ET
No, Waite was brought in at his request. They are committed to Crawford and believe Waite will get him really dialed in. Heard this this morning. Great source.
- John Jaeckel


Awesome - glad to hear it. I really think not enough has been made of what a disaster the Steve Weeks hire was. He hadn't been a goalie coach since 2011, had no pedigree of success in the job, and was a pure Q crony hire.
Return of the Roar
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Solidly grounded in reality, IL
Joined: 07.27.2009

Jul 8 @ 12:52 PM ET
So when are you guys trading us Sharp?
We missed on Vrbata and need a top 6 forward ASAP.

- Not_Yan


When you take Versteeg, Roszival, Seabrook and Sharp for Subban.
eburgio
Location: SF, CA
Joined: 07.18.2011

Jul 8 @ 12:53 PM ET
Brown Stoll and Williams could have gotten more on the open market. When they signed
- RobitailleFAN20


Geez...Brown at 5.875M thru 2022 doesn't really seem like a discount. I'm not familiar with Williams' contract/discussions at the time. Stoll, I'll give you that. I just checked capgeek and his AAV went down on the last contract.
RobitailleFAN20
Los Angeles Kings
Location: LA Kings fan since 1996. Favorite palyers Luc Robitaille & Rob Blake, CA
Joined: 06.22.2014

Jul 8 @ 12:53 PM ET
Wow, there's SO much that can happen in 3 years. Another bad concussion for Toews. Off-ice trouble for another superstar (just saying, it is rumored to happen now and then). Hossa is 38. And no, they have no one who replaces him.

The Hawks window is open now. it's about to get narrower though. 3-5 years out it is unlikely this will be as good a team, unless they REALLY hit on some draft picks and/or fleece someone in a trade or two.

- John Jaeckel

So would Kane and Toews signing "hurt" the hawks in the future? Is that what you're saying.

I'm just curious.

Do you like the thought of having them signed long term for that much?
RobitailleFAN20
Los Angeles Kings
Location: LA Kings fan since 1996. Favorite palyers Luc Robitaille & Rob Blake, CA
Joined: 06.22.2014

Jul 8 @ 12:55 PM ET
Geez...Brown at 5.8M doesn't really seem like a discount. I'm not familiar with Williams' contract/discussions at the time. Stoll, I'll give you that. I just checked capgeek and his AAV went down on the last contract.
- eburgio

I don't think brown deserves that much but on the open market we see stupid deals left and right. All 3 would have gotten more, not sure how much more but it was rumored at 1 point brown could have gotten 7. Which would have been atrocious!


eburgio
Location: SF, CA
Joined: 07.18.2011

Jul 8 @ 12:57 PM ET
I don't think brown deserves that much but on the open market we see stupid deals left and right. All 3 would have gotten more, not sure how much more but it was rumored at 1 point brown could have gotten 7. Which would have been atrocious!



- RobitailleFAN20


Dave Bolland disagrees with the bolded
SimpleJack
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago , IL
Joined: 05.23.2013

Jul 8 @ 12:58 PM ET
I think there's a huge difference between taking a step backwards for a year or maybe 2, and never being able to win again. I see a lot of worried fans who are acting like next season is the last season we'll EVER get a chance to see the Hawks compete deep in the playoffs with Kane and Toews.

What happened after 2010? Well, we got (frank)ed by the cap, and then slowly rebuilt a contender again. Why cant that happen again? Same core pieces to build around(only probly minus Sharp and hopefully +Saad). Same coach. Same GM. Another deep group of hopeful prospects to fill in depth roles...

Will we win the Cup in 2015-16? Probly not. But to act like "oh no, one more year and then its over for good" is really idiotic IMO.
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