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Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: Leafs Still Open For Business
Author Message
Flyfreaky
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.20.2011

Jul 6 @ 9:18 AM ET
I believe he's the only player over 30.
- BetterCallSaul

hal gill's available
lumlums
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 06.25.2011

Jul 6 @ 9:19 AM ET
I believe he's the only player over 30.
- BetterCallSaul


Lupes is 30, will be 31 when the season starts
lumlums
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 06.25.2011

Jul 6 @ 9:19 AM ET
hal gill's available
- Flyfreaky


How about that, eh?
Flyfreaky
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.20.2011

Jul 6 @ 9:20 AM ET
Lupes is 30, will be 31 when the season starts
- lumlums

maybe they can move him for younger talent
BetterCallSaul
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Captain Morgan Rielly
Joined: 05.07.2013

Jul 6 @ 9:21 AM ET
Need 1 or 2 more guys in that age range
- MTL1

So people can complain about how many old guys we have? There's been a lot of upset Leaf fans over one player past his 20's.

Apparently there's 2. poop's going to hit the fan when people see this.
BetterCallSaul
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Captain Morgan Rielly
Joined: 05.07.2013

Jul 6 @ 9:22 AM ET
Lupes is 30, will be 31 when the season starts
- lumlums

What the (frank) is he still doing here then?
lumlums
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 06.25.2011

Jul 6 @ 9:26 AM ET
So the team average for St Louis is 55.9%, i.e. 55.9% of all shots in their games are towards the opposition goal.

For Ott, the -5.9% indicates that his own numbers are that much worse than the average (in his case, 50%).

Another way of looking at it is that St Louis generally had more possession and shots when he was on the bench.

That in itself isn't a convincing argument, but they also had a VERY low PDO (Sv% + scoring % with him on the ice), so not only were they shot on more with him on the ice than not on the ice, these chances were generally better quality ones too. Also his GF% rel of -27.9% means that in addition to giving up more chances and goals with him on the ice, they were scoring 27.9% less (!) with him on the ice than when he wasn't. So again, not only were they having fewer shots, the shots were generally of MUCH lower quality.

- lumlums


Bump for MTL1
MTL1
Montreal Canadiens
Location: Brampton, ON
Joined: 06.30.2006

Jul 6 @ 9:28 AM ET
Bump for MTL1
- lumlums

Thanks lums
Good breakdown and analysis
Looks like teams are good this way when signing their ufas
Example edm with fayne

In the ott example if you have crappy line mates or are playing with the bottom d pair then of course the relative Corsi is gonna be lower
lumlums
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 06.25.2011

Jul 6 @ 9:35 AM ET
Thanks lums
Good breakdown and analysis
Looks like teams are good this way when signing their ufas
Example edm with fayne

- MTL1


Yup.

A good internal analysis is with Kessel and Bolland. Both have identical Corsi (44.1%, pretty low)... however GF% rel was +8.8% for PK, and -10.7% for DB and absolute was 53.1% for PK and 38.1% for DB. PDO was 102.5 for PK, 98 for DB.

This is why you can't just look at Corsi, but also why the stats are, in my opinion, still useful. They both have identical Corsi ("See, Corsi sucks!"), but despite both being on the ice for more shots against than for, we still score more than the opposition when PK is on the ice, but concede WAY more (~2 to 1) when DB is on the ice.
lumlums
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 06.25.2011

Jul 6 @ 9:37 AM ET
Thanks lums
Good breakdown and analysis
Looks like teams are good this way when signing their ufas
Example edm with fayne

In the ott example if you have crappy line mates or are playing with the bottom d pair then of course the relative Corsi is gonna be lower

- MTL1


For sure. And for a complete analysis you have to look at stats such as "WOWY" which looks at how players perform with vs without the player in question.
MTL1
Montreal Canadiens
Location: Brampton, ON
Joined: 06.30.2006

Jul 6 @ 9:40 AM ET
Yup.

A good internal analysis is with Kessel and Bolland. Both have identical Corsi (44.1%, pretty low)... however GF% rel was +8.8% for PK, and -10.7% for DB and absolute was 53.1% for PK and 38.1% for DB. PDO was 102.5 for PK, 98 for DB.

This is why you can't just look at Corsi, but also why the stats are, in my opinion, still useful. They both have identical Corsi ("See, Corsi sucks!"), but despite both being on the ice for more shots against than for, we still score more than the opposition when PK is on the ice, but concede WAY more (~2 to 1) when DB is on the ice.

- lumlums


I believe there is a stat that matches the calibre of the opposing players that you are playing against?
lumlums
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 06.25.2011

Jul 6 @ 9:45 AM ET
I believe there is a stat that matches the calibre of the opposing players that you are playing against?
- MTL1


Yup, QOC% (quality of competition)... this is why I'm okay with Dion because as much as he shat the bed the final 20 games, he had one of the highest QOC in the league (at one point it WAS the highest)....
Arctic_AARDVARK
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Retired, ON
Joined: 07.24.2011

Jul 6 @ 9:47 AM ET
I'm torn between buying a Rielly or a Komarov jersey.
Flyfreaky
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.20.2011

Jul 6 @ 9:52 AM ET
I'm torn between buying a Rielly or a Komarov jersey.
- Arctic_AARDVARK

if you wait a few weeks you could score the vinny jersey
Sammich
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: You're the fukin best Bellows!
Joined: 02.10.2011

Jul 6 @ 10:01 AM ET
Of for 100k more - could've have had legwand
- MTL1


he's done
MTL1
Montreal Canadiens
Location: Brampton, ON
Joined: 06.30.2006

Jul 6 @ 10:01 AM ET
Yup, QOC% (quality of competition)... this is why I'm okay with Dion because as much as he shat the bed the final 20 games, he had one of the highest QOC in the league (at one point it WAS the highest)....
- lumlums

So you're saying he would be better if he weren't facing the other teams best players
Sammich
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: You're the fukin best Bellows!
Joined: 02.10.2011

Jul 6 @ 10:02 AM ET
if you wait a few weeks you could score the vinny jersey
- Flyfreaky


you're done too fat man
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Jul 6 @ 10:03 AM ET
So the team average for St Louis is 55.9%, i.e. 55.9% of all shots in their games are towards the opposition goal.

For Ott, the -5.9% indicates that his own numbers are that much worse than the average (in his case, 50%).

Another way of looking at it is that St Louis generally had more possession and shots when he was on the bench.

That in itself isn't a convincing argument, but they also had a VERY low PDO (Sv% + scoring % with him on the ice), so not only were they shot on more with him on the ice than not on the ice, these chances were generally better quality ones too. Also his GF% rel of -27.9% means that in addition to giving up more chances and goals with him on the ice, they were scoring 27.9% less (!) with him on the ice than when he wasn't. So again, not only were they having fewer shots, the shots were generally of MUCH lower quality.

- lumlums


That's really good use of pdo, that doesn't just assume it's a blind luck stat.
MTL1
Montreal Canadiens
Location: Brampton, ON
Joined: 06.30.2006

Jul 6 @ 10:04 AM ET
he's done
- Sammich

Still had 51 pts - decent year considering he was traded from the only team he ever played for
Sammich
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: You're the fukin best Bellows!
Joined: 02.10.2011

Jul 6 @ 10:04 AM ET
Still had 51 pts - decent year considering he was traded from the only team he ever played for
- MTL1


nah man
done
fidopro
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Service Temporarily Unavailable, QC
Joined: 08.10.2008

Jul 6 @ 10:07 AM ET
Mike Augello: Leafs Still Open For Business
- mikeinbuffalo


Hurry up! Sale ends September 30th!
gravyface
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I wouldn't even trade [Marner] for McDavid -- UsernameUnknown
Joined: 02.19.2009

Jul 6 @ 10:09 AM ET
The cost would be a lot to acquire him.
Kane doesn't bring any leadership....only attitude

- Fakepartofme


They said that about Subban too, but I'd take that guy in a heartbeat.
Flyfreaky
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.20.2011

Jul 6 @ 10:12 AM ET
They said that about Subban too, but I'd take that guy in a heartbeat.
- gravyface

not everyone is built to be the type of leader that dion is
Arctic_AARDVARK
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Retired, ON
Joined: 07.24.2011

Jul 6 @ 10:14 AM ET
if you wait a few weeks you could score the vinny jersey
- Flyfreaky



We don't allow frenchies in TO. Except goalies.
gravyface
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: I wouldn't even trade [Marner] for McDavid -- UsernameUnknown
Joined: 02.19.2009

Jul 6 @ 10:15 AM ET
So you're saying he would be better if he weren't facing the other teams best players
- MTL1


That's pretty much a given, yeah. It's like Keith/Seabrook: those guys get sheltered minutes where Hjalmarsson and Oduya get all the tough assignments.

We just can't really afford to do that because our top 6 hasn't had a good shutdown tandem since I can remember.
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