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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: July 4th Quick Hits
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MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 4 @ 1:10 PM ET
Source? Proof?
- coffee junkie



Source and proof of what?
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Jul 4 @ 1:11 PM ET
I was merely pointing out you didn't use those EXACT words. I'm very well aware we replaced Hartnell with Umberger.

But if you want to be technical, we still (probably) have seven 20 goal scorers for next season, assuming everyone is healthy. I have no doubt Umberger can score 20 on this team.

And, for arguments sake and since your a math whiz, I'll let you prove me right.

Hartnell: 953 games, 250 goals
Umberger: 673, 169 goals

(hint: they score at the same rate for their career)

- mochoson

Well you put all your hopes into "probably" because Umburger didn't do it last season.
coffee junkie
Joined: 02.25.2007

Jul 4 @ 1:12 PM ET
They can still spend more money and keep Lecavalier!
- MJL

MJL if you had to choose one of the three mentioned before which would you choose and why?
mochoson
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Josi is the most overrated player in the nhl. He isnt even close to a top ten. - James_Tanner, NJ
Joined: 02.28.2009

Jul 4 @ 1:12 PM ET
It's apparently another day of cap panic in Flyers land. The Flyers cap picture is fine, and it's fine going forward. Please remain calm!

Another thing I'm reading is Hextall's new mantra of building through he draft. That direction for this team has been in place for about 4 years now, since 2010 under Holmgren. This is nothing new.

- MJL


I think it's more about the new mantra being about drafting AND developing, with more of an emphasis on the development part. And by that, I'm referring to turning the Phantoms into a perennial Calder Cup contender.

It remains to be seen if Homer will have "built well through the draft". You reference 2010, and we won't even be getting an NHLer from that draft. 2011-2013 's results remain to be seen, but if were talking about a changing of the guard, I think the difference is Hextall won't be trading as many picks away for quick fixes. Homer did plenty of that.
coffee junkie
Joined: 02.25.2007

Jul 4 @ 1:12 PM ET
Source and proof of what?
- MJL

That it has been the plan for the last 4 yrs
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 4 @ 1:12 PM ET
MJL if you had to choose one of the three mentioned before which would you choose and why?
- coffee junkie



Don't know what you're asking. One of the three what?
Tomahawk
Ottawa Senators
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jul 4 @ 1:12 PM ET
Thank you, When I sat down to look at the new CBA, that was the conclusion I came to as well. With everyone freaking out, I thought, "Maybe I was reading it Wrong?" But yeah, this jives with my understanding of the legaleeze as well.
- flyler


There is a difference.

Say they follow "Option 2", they'd only recoup as much usable cap-space as players they can safely demote to Allentown/lose to waivers after Pronger goes on LTIR.

If they manage to lose salary enough to take "Option 1", they can choose when to put Pronger on LTIR, and they'd have the full $4.9 at their disposal throughout the season.
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Jul 4 @ 1:13 PM ET
Umberger had 18, so he's pretty close. Goals aren't my concern with this team, though
- funmaster18

18 isn't 20. I mean if we're ready worried that Lecavalier is in decline, why shouldn't we with Umburger?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 4 @ 1:15 PM ET
That it has been the plan for the last 4 yrs
- coffee junkie



Look at what's happened since the Cup Finals in 2010, and the trades of Carter and Richards. He has refused to move any of the young players. Holmgren identified the core, and hasn't traded draft picks. And has drafted a stable of defenseman to try and fix the issue of the past, of not drafting and developing defenseman well. The only deviation has been the OS for Weber. But when you have a chance to get a dominant #1 defenseman, when it's a big need of the team, well that's a good reason to give up some youth.
funmaster18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: All I need are some tasty waves, a cool buzz and I'm fine.
Joined: 03.15.2009

Jul 4 @ 1:15 PM ET
18 isn't 20. I mean if we're ready worried that Lecavalier is in decline, why shouldn't we with Umburger?
- SuperSchennBros


Those two goals are gonna kill them. How will they over come it?
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Jul 4 @ 1:16 PM ET
I'm not sold on that due to injury concerns but I sure hope so!
- coffee junkie

If coots offensive game continues to improve and he's on a line with Coots and Read, the possibility of him hitting 20 is pretty strong
mochoson
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Josi is the most overrated player in the nhl. He isnt even close to a top ten. - James_Tanner, NJ
Joined: 02.28.2009

Jul 4 @ 1:16 PM ET
Well you put all your hopes into "probably" because Umburger didn't do it last season.
- SuperSchennBros


No, "probably" means a million different things could happen that could prevent us from having a total of 7 20 goal scorers.

You're ignoring the fact that he's done it just as frequently as Hartnell. This is a pretty dumb argument to begin with, considering we should be grateful to have even 5 or 6 guys hit 20 every year.

flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

Jul 4 @ 1:18 PM ET
Look at what's happened since the Cup Finals in 2010, and the trades of Carter and Richards. He has refused to move any of the young players. Holmgren identified the core, and hasn't traded draft picks. And has drafted a stable of defenseman to try and fix the issue of the past, of not drafting and developing defenseman well. The only deviation has been the OS for Weber. But when you have a chance to get a dominant #1 defenseman, when it's a big need of the team, well that's a good reason to give up some youth.
- MJL


Nothing personal but what?!
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Jul 4 @ 1:18 PM ET
Huh. Sounds like Brayden Schenn.

Why are we writing off Schenn as a huge question mark but Marchand is being praised?

And is 26 REALLY that young?

- Giroux_Is_God

Brayden Schenn hasn't scored 20 each season he's been in the league and who says I'm writing off anyone?

The better Brayden Schenn vs. Brad Marchant is Brad Marchant. Marchant kills penalties and dangerous short handed. Stanley Cup ring aside Marchant has scored a lot of big goals for Boston in their runs.
flyler
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: LA, CA
Joined: 05.23.2008

Jul 4 @ 1:19 PM ET
There is a difference.

Say they follow "Option 2", they'd only recoup as much usable cap-space as players they can safely demote to Allentown/lose to waivers after Pronger goes on LTIR.

If they manage to lose salary enough to take "Option 1", they can choose when to put Pronger on LTIR, and they'd have the full $4.9 at their disposal throughout the season.

- Tomahawk


I do get that. And it's why given the choice, they'd take Option 1. But Option 2 is workable, and with the going issues with being put over a barrel for trading Vinnie, it's not worth demolishing a good team for a couple hundred thousand in Cap space for one year.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 4 @ 1:19 PM ET
There is a difference.

Say they follow "Option 2", they'd only recoup as much usable cap-space as players they can safely demote to Allentown/lose to waivers after Pronger goes on LTIR.

If they manage to lose salary enough to take "Option 1", they can choose when to put Pronger on LTIR, and they'd have the full $4.9 at their disposal throughout the season.

- Tomahawk


One isn't better then the other. Only difference is that you add more at the beginning of the season to strengthen the team, versus later, such as at the trade deadline. And there are always ways to add more cap space during the season. Such as the ever popular, let's get rid of Rinaldo and Rosehill.
xShoot4WarAmpsx
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Hamilton, ON
Joined: 06.25.2010

Jul 4 @ 1:19 PM ET
1) This team is too heavily dependent on Giroux's production to win. Our hopes of making the playoffs are all placed on Claude Giroux. All eggs, one basket.

2) You don't care if Giroux puts up 100 plus points? I think you're a lair. Giroux's point production this season is a huge reason why we made the playoffs. He turned on the afterburners and away he went.

3) Martin St Louis is also a top point producer in the NHL. Maybe even top five the couple of years. Who on this team can do what St Louis did for the Lightning when Stamkos went down?

You're just making my case for me.

- SuperSchennBros


I disagree. Giroux is our Top player and you know what yes we do count on him to score a lot just like every team does with their best players. Pens Count on Crosby and Malkin since they cant play Defence. LA relies on Kopitar, Anaheim on Getz and Perry, San Jose on Thornton, Washington relies on Ovi ect. Giroux is a top player because he CAN be relied on to put up points. That is why he makes the big money. If any of the players I mention struggle so do their respective teams, how often do these players struggle? Not very often.

Fact is even without Giroux, You still Simmonds, Voracek Schenn, Coots, Read, Umberger and Vinny who can score goals and got around 20 last season. Who knows maybe guys like Raffl and Akeson will step up their game and add another 20 as well. Bit of a stretch for Akeson since it would be his 1st full NHL season IF hemakes the team but I saw enough of Raffl to know he is capable of it.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 4 @ 1:20 PM ET
Nothing personal but what?!
- flyer_nutter


Nothing personal but buck up and make a point. When was the last time Holmgren traded a #1 pick?
mochoson
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Josi is the most overrated player in the nhl. He isnt even close to a top ten. - James_Tanner, NJ
Joined: 02.28.2009

Jul 4 @ 1:20 PM ET
Look at what's happened since the Cup Finals in 2010, and the trades of Carter and Richards. He has refused to move any of the young players. Holmgren identified the core, and hasn't traded draft picks. And has drafted a stable of defenseman to try and fix the issue of the past, of not drafting and developing defenseman well. The only deviation has been the OS for Weber. But when you have a chance to get a dominant #1 defenseman, when it's a big need of the team, well that's a good reason to give up some youth.
- MJL


He's traded plenty of draft picks, although we did end up making a decent amount of selections in every draft in which he was GM since at least 2011. But building through the draft, to me anyway, means you use all those picks. Not trade them for guys like Kubina and Grossman.

I'm not really disagreeing with you, btw. I do however see a difference in what Hextall "says" he will do and what Homer actually did.
xShoot4WarAmpsx
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Hamilton, ON
Joined: 06.25.2010

Jul 4 @ 1:21 PM ET
Did you take stupid pills, back read
- coffee junkie


He's stupid because you are referencing another comment in your comment that he obviously doesn't know about?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 4 @ 1:21 PM ET
If coots offensive game continues to improve and he's on a line with Coots and Read, the possibility of him hitting 20 is pretty strong
- JAKEw1234


I agree. Couturier could bust out this year offensively.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 4 @ 1:22 PM ET
He's traded plenty of draft picks, although we did end up making a decent amount of selections in every draft in which he was GM since at least 2011. But building through the draft, to me anyway, means you use all those picks. Not trade them for guys like Kubina and Grossman.

I'm not really disagreeing with you, btw. I do however see a difference in what Hextall "says" he will do and what Homer actually did.

- mochoson


He traded a lot of draft picks in playoff runs. But since then, they have identified a core and have stuck to it.
flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

Jul 4 @ 1:22 PM ET
Nothing personal but buck up and make a point. When was the last time Holmgren traded a #1 pick?
- MJL


I read that he didn't trade any picks since 2010.

Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Jul 4 @ 1:23 PM ET
Here's the problem: Even when using the Capgeek figures, the Flyers have no ELC players with whom they can help get beneath the cap ceiling (Laughton is not listed on the NHL roster in the Capgeek calculations) by assigning to the AHL and immediately recall when they put Pronger on LTIR.

The Flyers could waive certain vets for a bit of cap relief but that would only be $925K of cap relief per waiver -- and there is also the risk that the player gets claimed by another team.

In other words, the Flyers need to trade at least $3.06M of salary even when you figure Pronger's LTIR into the equation. Taking on Umberger's salary for three years at barely less than Hartnell's cap hit for five years really wasn't much of a good "cap" move.

- bmeltzer


They only "need" to do that if they are hell bent on using LTIR Option 1. If they use Option 2 they don't need to make a single move until the last day of training camp when they can add Hagg and Straka to the roster to maximize the upper limit for the season. Then the next day they can be demoted to free up $1.85 million in cap space.
Baxter27
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.03.2007

Jul 4 @ 1:24 PM ET
It's apparently another day of cap panic in Flyers land. The Flyers cap picture is fine, and it's fine going forward. Please remain calm!

Another thing I'm reading is Hextall's new mantra of building through he draft. That direction for this team has been in place for about 4 years now, since 2010 under Holmgren. This is nothing new.

- MJL


This is great new, I had no idea option 2 existed.

Heck the flyers have some wiggle room, should've known the media was wrong speculating that teams have the Flyers over a barrel in trade talks.
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