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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: July 4th Quick Hits
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AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jul 4 @ 3:42 PM ET
It'd be nice to see how he'd do with wingers more inclined to shoot. Voracek is a dynamic player, and while he has started to shoot more often, he's not a shoot first winger
- Jsaquella


That's what I'm thinking; I'm curious if whoever is on that left side is going to help open things up by shooting
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 4 @ 3:42 PM ET
Cheap shot dude. If people disagree with you, you sulk and ignore.
- SuperSchennBros



PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jul 4 @ 3:45 PM ET
It's a fair point and fair question to ask
- AllInForFlyers


I would have been fine with taking 1 step back this season to take 2 steps forward. It just doesn't appear they're going to be taking any steps forward anytime soon. The guys they have under bad contracts will be under contract next season and the season after that.

I'm not blaming Hexy for not moving them because it appears no one wants a guy like VL without an unreasonable return.

I just don't see the plan taking shape. If you asked me, I'd think he was building for the 2017-18 season and beyond.
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Jul 4 @ 3:46 PM ET
In terms of Giroux and Voracek, let's not ignore that while Giroux was 3rd in the NHL in overall scoring, he drops to 17th in the NHL in ES scoring.

So while Voracek was his RW often at ES, on the power play, where Giroux put up a lot of points, Voracek was playing the point, not RW.

- Jsaquella

Voracek is still gaining the ice time, still on the top Power Play unit, still seeing time with Giroux and still passes up prime shooting opopportunities.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 4 @ 3:47 PM ET
Cheap shot dude. If people disagree with you, you sulk and ignore.
- SuperSchennBros


Nope, just ignore. It's usually not worth the time and effort
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jul 4 @ 3:48 PM ET
This is wrong. I do more then attack their validity. I state why they aren't valid. If the data is flawed the numbers are flawed.

http://blogs.edmontonjour...-wrong-with-some-players/

- MJL


Extraskater provides other numbers such as Quality of Competition, Quality of Teammates, Zone % starts and even other detailed things.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jul 4 @ 3:49 PM ET
I agree with all of this. I'm not saying he doesn't contribute. I'm just saying he isn't driving the bus. Late for burgers!
- MJL


And Umberger does?
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Jul 4 @ 3:49 PM ET
Nope, just ignore. It's usually not worth the time and effort
- Jsaquella

Well at least your admitting to ignoring people when they disagree with you. It's a small victory but I'll take it.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jul 4 @ 3:51 PM ET
I would have been fine with taking 1 step back this season to take 2 steps forward. It just doesn't appear they're going to be taking any steps forward anytime soon. The guys they have under bad contracts will be under contract next season and the season after that.

I'm not blaming Hexy for not moving them because it appears no one wants a guy like VL without an unreasonable return.

I just don't see the plan taking shape. If you asked me, I'd think he was building for the 2017-18 season and beyond.

- PhillySportsGuy


It won't have to be; I think we will see regular buyouts before then. Right now, the NHL is still adjusting to the new CBA, and everyone has locked up assets.

But now you have seen teams getting locked into contracts, and no compliance buyouts are left. In the next couple of years, you will see movement as teams struggle under the weight of those long-term deals.

Teams are going to have to start making asset for asset trades, over the course of the CBA.
FlyersSteve118
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Delco, PA
Joined: 10.02.2013

Jul 4 @ 3:52 PM ET
Extraskater provides other numbers such as Quality of Competition, Quality of Teammates, Zone % starts and even other detailed things.
- PhillySportsGuy


Btw I hate how QoC and QoT are calculated. With QoC freakin 29% is awesome while 28% is mediocre and 27% is bad. And with QoT I can't even figure out whats good and bad. Every single player in the NHL seems to be about 30%.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 4 @ 3:52 PM ET
Extraskater provides other numbers such as Quality of Competition, Quality of Teammates, Zone % starts and even other detailed things.
- PhillySportsGuy


Exactly. Just easier to reduce it all to "Corsi" and call them flawed.

I'm going to look at the teams that openly utilize analytics and see how they're doing. Like Chicago and Los Angeles.

It's not about finding a magic bullet, it's about having a way to quantify what's going on during games. It's not foolproof, but it is a pretty useful tool.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jul 4 @ 3:53 PM ET
Nope, just ignore. It's usually not worth the time and effort
- Jsaquella


Exactly; discuss hockey with whoever you want, ignore those who you feel lessen that experience

Not that difficult a concept
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jul 4 @ 3:55 PM ET
It won't have to be; I think we will see regular buyouts before then. Right now, the NHL is still adjusting to the new CBA, and everyone has locked up assets.

But now you have seen teams getting locked into contracts, and no compliance buyouts are left. In the next couple of years, you will see movement as teams struggle under the weight of those long-term deals.

Teams are going to have to start making asset for asset trades, over the course of the CBA.

- AllInForFlyers


I hope so
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jul 4 @ 3:56 PM ET
Btw I hate how QoC and QoT are calculated. With QoC freakin 29% is awesome while 28% is mediocre and 27% is bad. And with QoT I can't even figure out whats good and bad. Every single player in the NHL seems to be about 30%.
- FlyersSteve118




You should call and complain!
FlyersSteve118
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Delco, PA
Joined: 10.02.2013

Jul 4 @ 3:56 PM ET
Exactly. Just easier to reduce it all to "Corsi" and call them flawed.

I'm going to look at the teams that openly utilize analytics and see how they're doing. Like Chicago and Los Angeles.

It's not about finding a magic bullet, it's about having a way to quantify what's going on during games. It's not foolproof, but it is a pretty useful tool.

- Jsaquella


Yeah, no stat on its own will tell the full story. A player can have 50% corsi or higher and still not be good if he is negative relative to his teams corsi rating. You have to know the role of the player, his team mates, competition, ozone/dzone starts... etc.

Even things like goals and assists can be useless stats if there isn't enough context behind them (+/-, ozone/dzone usage, GF%, PDO, SH%)
3flyerkids
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 02.27.2013

Jul 4 @ 3:57 PM ET
I would have been fine with taking 1 step back this season to take 2 steps forward. It just doesn't appear they're going to be taking any steps forward anytime soon. The guys they have under bad contracts will be under contract next season and the season after that.

I'm not blaming Hexy for not moving them because it appears no one wants a guy like VL without an unreasonable return.

I just don't see the plan taking shape. If you asked me, I'd think he was building for the 2017-18 season and beyond.

- PhillySportsGuy


He can always go the trade route. It may not involve VL but this team isn't really far away is it? I don't think they have to take too many steps back.
In fairness If we can't deal VL it really isn't that bad. Who knows what can happen if he has a healthy season.
mochoson
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Josi is the most overrated player in the nhl. He isnt even close to a top ten. - James_Tanner, NJ
Joined: 02.28.2009

Jul 4 @ 3:57 PM ET
Look at it this way.

Giroux was 3rd in the league in points. Giroux's linemate Jake Voracek was 38th in the league in points. More simple terms if you ask me. Granted there are some ties in there but he's still back there as far as offensive threats for top lines go.

- SuperSchennBros


Look at it this way.

The Kings won the cup. Anze Kopitar was 17th in the leauge in points, the next highest scoring King was Carter at 88th
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 4 @ 3:57 PM ET
Well at least your admitting to ignoring people when they disagree with you. It's a small victory but I'll take it.
- SuperSchennBros


I've disagreed with PSG and don't ignore him. I've disagreed with others and don't ignore them.

I ignore people who can't simply can't stop arguing their point. You go on and on and on about every topic and get pissed when people don't respond. That's why I generally ignore you. because it gets (frank)ing tiresome. Same thing with mjl. I come here to kill time. If I want to be annoyed, I can mow the lawn or go to work
FlyersSteve118
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Delco, PA
Joined: 10.02.2013

Jul 4 @ 3:58 PM ET


You should call and complain!

- PhillySportsGuy


Yeah, there needs to be a better way to figure it out. But its damn near impossible because of how hard is it to keep that kind of stats.

29% QoC for Giroux is normally vs. #1 dmen and shutdown forwards while 29% QoC for Couturier is normally vs. top lines and second pair scoring dmen.
mochoson
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Josi is the most overrated player in the nhl. He isnt even close to a top ten. - James_Tanner, NJ
Joined: 02.28.2009

Jul 4 @ 3:59 PM ET
In terms of Giroux and Voracek, let's not ignore that while Giroux was 3rd in the NHL in overall scoring, he drops to 17th in the NHL in ES scoring.

So while Voracek was his RW often at ES, on the power play, where Giroux put up a lot of points, Voracek was playing the point, not RW.

- Jsaquella


ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jul 4 @ 3:59 PM ET
Exactly. Just easier to reduce it all to "Corsi" and call them flawed.

I'm going to look at the teams that openly utilize analytics and see how they're doing. Like Chicago and Los Angeles.

It's not about finding a magic bullet, it's about having a way to quantify what's going on during games. It's not foolproof, but it is a pretty useful tool.

- Jsaquella


It's not the end all, be all, but I don't see how trading a good possession player for a bad possession play will help the team at 5v5.

I guess the Flyers need to try harder, the coach needs to create the perfect line combinations and the system needs to fit the players better. Oh, and more truculence is needed!
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Jul 4 @ 3:59 PM ET
I hope so
- PhillySportsGuy


That's how it looked after the last lockouts; teams sign these long-term deals, won't trade assets and young players.

Then, they realize that Ryan Suter and Zach Parise are 32 years old and haven't won, and now what the hell do,you do?

Keep paying them? Bring in more help? Trade them?

We'll start seeing good players move again, sooner than later.
mochoson
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Josi is the most overrated player in the nhl. He isnt even close to a top ten. - James_Tanner, NJ
Joined: 02.28.2009

Jul 4 @ 4:01 PM ET
Yeah, no stat on its own will tell the full story. A player can have 50% corsi or higher and still not be good if he is negative relative to his teams corsi rating. You have to know the role of the player, his team mates, competition, ozone/dzone starts... etc.

Even things like goals and assists can be useless stats if there isn't enough context behind them (+/-, ozone/dzone usage, GF%, PDO, SH%)

- FlyersSteve118


This!!
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jul 4 @ 4:01 PM ET
He can always go the trade route. It may not involve VL but this team isn't really far away is it? I don't think they have to take too many steps back.
In fairness If we can't deal VL it really isn't that bad. Who knows what can happen if he has a healthy season.

- 3flyerkids


Wait and see I guess
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 4 @ 4:01 PM ET
Yeah, no stat on its own will tell the full story. A player can have 50% corsi or higher and still not be good if he is negative relative to his teams corsi rating. You have to know the role of the player, his team mates, competition, ozone/dzone starts... etc.

Even things like goals and assists can be useless stats if there isn't enough context behind them (+/-, ozone/dzone usage, GF%, PDO, SH%)

- FlyersSteve118


Yup. You have to really dig in and use the full array of numbers, as well as those of teammates to get a full picture. And yeah, they're not perfect. But I'd rather watch a guy play AND see the underlying numbers because it paints a more full picture.
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