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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings:
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MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 4 @ 9:38 AM ET
No I did take into account his injury that you claim is the bane of his existence. And I showed that the injury did not have an effect on his play. He basically benefited from a high shooting % early in the season that was due to even out over the course of the season.

Yes he scored 20 goals, but at -16 (on a team that averaged around a +/- 1, you know the context so don't argue no context) he allowed a whole hell of a lot more to go in.


- FlyersSteve118


How did you show that the injury did not have an effect on his play? All you have to do is look at his production to know that it did. Again, a proven goal scorer, went on a hot streak at a point in the season. And it's deemed a fluke that wasn't going to hold up. As if that never happens with goal scorers. It's pretty common. Nobody would expect that he would maintain that high of a shooting percentage over the course of an entire season. And it wasn't neccessary that he did. If he was healthy and playing at his normal level, even a shooting percentage closer to the norm, likely would've resulted in a 30 goal season for Lecavalier if he had remained healthy.

I will not argue that Lecavalier doesn't have weaknesses in his game, or that he's not a good defensive forward. But as far as context is concerned. +/- has the same issues as Corsi. False data. How many of those goals let in while he was on the ice were directly Lecavalier's fault?


You completely dismiss corsi in an argument that shows that he was better at getting shots to the net AFTER his injury (you called a 2% increase in corsi a slight increase which it isn't, but that was far from the point). And both of those corsi numbers were GOD AWFUL.


- FlyersSteve118


Corsi doesn't show that a player was better at getting shots to the net. Corsi is about shots attempted. Whether they hit the net, miss the net, blocked, etc.
It is a sligh increase to the point of being miniscule and meaningless. And again, the same issue applies. Corsi is not independent of other players on the ice, game situations, score effects, etc. Corsi isn't the only way to measure a player. IN fact it shouldn't be used to measure a player at all.


Overall he was a serious detriment to the team. He did and will continue to allow a lot more scoring chances against than he will create and he will continue to make players around him worse.

- FlyersSteve118



This is an assumption. It remains to be seen how Lecavalier can bounce back. He's a proven player in this League.
eayost
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Into the Void, PA
Joined: 04.14.2010

Jun 4 @ 9:40 AM ET
Can the Flyers just tell B Schenn he's going to take a bridge deal, learn to play left wing with Giroux, keep your stick down, drive to the net, Giroux will find you, score a bunch of goals, then get paid after 2-3 years?
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jun 4 @ 9:41 AM ET
Who cares at this point? It's so predictable anymore.
- Jsaquella


I really tried to be nice last night without being condescending. I was hoping to put this whole thing to rest once and for all. I guess it's just not possible to agree to disagree and move on.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jun 4 @ 9:42 AM ET
Can the Flyers just tell B Schenn he's going to take a bridge deal, learn to play left wing with Giroux, keep your stick down, drive to the net, Giroux will find you, score a bunch of goals, then get paid after 2-3 years?
- eayost


I think they want to use him at center
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Jun 4 @ 9:43 AM ET
I think they want to use him at center
- PhillySportsGuy


He also wants to play center. Bill Clement asked him about it in an interview and he was very clear on that.
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jun 4 @ 9:45 AM ET
Keith would have a $7m to $8m cap hit if he wasn't signed to a back diving deal. So would Hossa.

And if one of those guys had got Pronger'd then Chicago would be (frank)ed.

- Feanor


I thought long term contracts given to guys on the + side of 30, plus the NMC were more to do with the boat the Flyers are in than the Pronger injury. I guess I'm wrong about that.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jun 4 @ 9:46 AM ET
He also wants to play center. Bill Clement asked him about it in an interview and he was very clear on that.
- Feanor


Yeah. He wants to play center and the team seems to feel he's better at center. If they give him a full season and allow him to work on face-offs and defensive play, he will improve in those areas.
eayost
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Into the Void, PA
Joined: 04.14.2010

Jun 4 @ 9:46 AM ET
I think they want to use him at center
- PhillySportsGuy


Does the GM have a say where a coach slots in particular players? Does Hextall, being new, have an influence on how the Flyers want to use him (if Hextall comes to a different conclusion than Holmgren), or are those decisions strictly left to the coach?
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 4 @ 9:47 AM ET
Yeah. He wants to play center and the team seems to feel he's better at center. If they give him a full season and allow him to work on face-offs and defensive play, he will improve in those areas.
- PhillySportsGuy



Regardless of what position he plays, a decision needs to be made, and he needs to be left there.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 4 @ 9:48 AM ET
Does the GM have a say where a coach slots in particular players? Does Hextall, being new, have an influence on how the Flyers want to use him (if Hextall comes to a different conclusion than Holmgren), or are those decisions strictly left to the coach?
- eayost



I think they are traditionally left to the Coach. I have no doubt that discussions and suggestions do take place.
PhillaBully
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.20.2010

Jun 4 @ 9:49 AM ET
Lecavs fate is going to be decided on whether Brayden is dealt at the draft. If he gets traded than Lecav is staying.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jun 4 @ 9:49 AM ET
Does the GM have a say where a coach slots in particular players? Does Hextall, being new, have an influence on how the Flyers want to use him (if Hextall comes to a different conclusion than Holmgren), or are those decisions strictly left to the coach?
- eayost


I imagine they've met several times to discuss these types of issues. This is a fairly significant decision.

From what they've said, it appears they are going to give Schenn the keys to the 2nd line center spot and see how he does. I'd like to see that happen. He's been bounced all over the place. You can argue about Couturier's linemates, but, at least, he knows what to expect on a nightly basis. Schenn has no idea who his linemates will be or where he'll be playing.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 4 @ 9:51 AM ET
I thought long term contracts given to guys on the + side of 30, plus the NMC were more to do with the boat the Flyers are in than the Pronger injury. I guess I'm wrong about that.
- PLindbergh31


The biggest issue right now for the Flyers is the lack of potential young players on EL deals, where they can use the bonus cushion, to add more cap space. But the Flyers have some flexibility. And I would not describe them as being in cap hell. Here's the deal, with the Flyers. Unless the organizational philosophy changes, they will always be a team tight to the cap. It is by choice, not by accident.
eayost
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Into the Void, PA
Joined: 04.14.2010

Jun 4 @ 9:52 AM ET
I imagine they've met several times to discuss these types of issues. This is a fairly significant decision.

From what they've said, it appears they are going to give Schenn the keys to the 2nd line center spot and see how he does. I'd like to see that happen. He's been bounced all over the place. You can argue about Couturier's linemates, but, at least, he knows what to expect on a nightly basis. Schenn has no idea who his linemates will be or where he'll be playing.

- PhillySportsGuy


I guess I'd just like to see Couturier take on the more traditional 2C role at this point so as to not completely pigeon hold him as a defensive specialist. I know he could still produce offense as the 3C, but I think there's just a different mindset at that position. I'd just like to somehow see Giroux, B Schenn, Couturier somehow stacked on the top 2 lines, obviously meaning someone would have to play wing. I don't know, maybe they don't need to do that and will be fine keeping them all as centers
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jun 4 @ 9:55 AM ET
The biggest issue right now for the Flyers is the lack of potential young players on EL deals, where they can use the bonus cushion, to add more cap space. But the Flyers have some flexibility. And I would not describe them as being in cap hell. Here's the deal, with the Flyers. Unless the organizational philosophy changes, they will always be a team tight to the cap. It is by choice, not by accident.
- MJL


I agree that they are a large market team that will always spend to the cap. Spending the max doesn't necessarily equate to money being spent wisely.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jun 4 @ 9:57 AM ET
I guess I'd just like to see Couturier take on the more traditional 2C role at this point so as to not completely pigeon hold him as a defensive specialist. I know he could still produce offense as the 3C, but I think there's just a different mindset at that position. I'd just like to somehow see Giroux, B Schenn, Couturier somehow stacked on the top 2 lines, obviously meaning someone would have to play wing. I don't know, maybe they don't need to do that and will be fine keeping them all as centers
- eayost


I don't like the idea of stacking the top two lines as much. If the Flyers can sign a strong, two-way winger to play with Schenn or Couturier, it should provide good balance.

Hopefully, Laughton and Raffl will be able to form a productive 4th line as well.

Giving the team balance will allow Berube to roll the 4 lines a lot more evenly. It will give Couts more offensive opportunities and better match ups.

This past season, the Flyers 2nd and 4th lines could not be trusted. Berube wanted to use the 1st line in more offensive situations because that's what you do with a top line. It left Couturier's line to do the heavy defensive work. In the playoffs, Couturier took 1 offensive zone face-off for every 4 defensive zone face-offs. I believe the offense is there. He just needs more opportunity.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 4 @ 9:58 AM ET
I agree that they are a large market team that will always spend to the cap. Spending the max doesn't necessarily equate to money being spent wisely.
- PLindbergh31



No it certainly doesn't. But the Flyers have options. They will always have options. It's no different then drafting. Just because you have draft picks, doesn't mean it's going to help your team.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jun 4 @ 10:00 AM ET
I don't like the idea of stacking the top two lines as much. If the Flyers can sign a strong, two-way winger to play with Schenn or Couturier, it should provide good balance.

Hopefully, Laughton and Raffl will be able to form a productive 4th line as well.

Giving the team balance will allow Berube to roll the 4 lines a lot more evenly. It will give Couts more offensive opportunities and better match ups.

This past season, the Flyers 2nd and 4th lines could not be trusted. Berube wanted to use the 1st line in more offensive situations because that's what you do with a top line. It left Couturier's line to do the heavy defensive work. In the playoffs, Couturier took 1 offensive zone face-off for every 4 defensive zone face-offs. I believe the offense is there. He just needs more opportunity.

- PhillySportsGuy


Yep, need to build a more balanced team, where one line isn't heavily starting in the D zone. Where all 4 lines can be trusted defensively.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Jun 4 @ 10:00 AM ET
I don't like the idea of stacking the top two lines as much. If the Flyers can sign a strong, two-way winger to play with Schenn or Couturier, it should provide good balance.

Hopefully, Laughton and Raffl will be able to form a productive 4th line as well.

Giving the team balance will allow Berube to roll the 4 lines a lot more evenly. It will give Couts more offensive opportunities and better match ups.

This past season, the Flyers 2nd and 4th lines could not be trusted. Berube wanted to use the 1st line in more offensive situations because that's what you do with a top line. It left Couturier's line to do the heavy defensive work. In the playoffs, Couturier took 1 offensive zone face-off for every 4 defensive zone face-offs. I believe the offense is there. He just needs more opportunity.

- PhillySportsGuy


I just want a bottom 6 where all six can be used to kill penalties. Is that too much to ask? Or even 5 of the six!
eayost
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Into the Void, PA
Joined: 04.14.2010

Jun 4 @ 10:05 AM ET
I don't like the idea of stacking the top two lines as much. If the Flyers can sign a strong, two-way winger to play with Schenn or Couturier, it should provide good balance.

Hopefully, Laughton and Raffl will be able to form a productive 4th line as well.

Giving the team balance will allow Berube to roll the 4 lines a lot more evenly. It will give Couts more offensive opportunities and better match ups.

This past season, the Flyers 2nd and 4th lines could not be trusted. Berube wanted to use the 1st line in more offensive situations because that's what you do with a top line. It left Couturier's line to do the heavy defensive work. In the playoffs, Couturier took 1 offensive zone face-off for every 4 defensive zone face-offs. I believe the offense is there. He just needs more opportunity.

- PhillySportsGuy


Yea that's fair. If Couturier is able to be deployed differently than last year, regardless of whatever label is on him (2C vs. 3C or 2a vs 2b, whatever) that would appease what I'd like to see. As you say, that can happen if better defensive players are on the "2nd" line, and/or if B Schenn can improve his defensive game. I'm fine if all that happens
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jun 4 @ 10:09 AM ET
I just want a bottom 6 where all six can be used to kill penalties. Is that too much to ask? Or even 5 of the six!
- MBFlyerfan


Thats what they had this past year. Raffl, Hall, Couts and Read all played in the bottom 6
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Jun 4 @ 10:10 AM ET
Lecavs fate is going to be decided on whether Brayden is dealt at the draft. If he gets traded than Lecav is staying.
- PhillaBully


I think it's the other way around.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Jun 4 @ 10:11 AM ET
Yea that's fair. If Couturier is able to be deployed differently than last year, regardless of whatever label is on him (2C vs. 3C or 2a vs 2b, whatever) that would appease what I'd like to see. As you say, that can happen if better defensive players are on the "2nd" line, and/or if B Schenn can improve his defensive game. I'm fine if all that happens
- eayost


Getting Couts some regular PP wouldn't hurt either. All things considered, 39 points wasn't a bad offensive season for a 21 year old. It could be a lot better if he was used a little differently.
Feanor
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: DE
Joined: 02.13.2013

Jun 4 @ 10:14 AM ET
Getting Couts some regular PP wouldn't hurt either. All things considered, 39 points wasn't a bad offensive season for a 21 year old. It could be a lot better if he was used a little differently.
- PhillySportsGuy


Couturier's ES production this season (1,179:01 ES TOI, 31 ESP, +1) is very similar to or in some cases higher than other forwards who played a similar amount of ES minutes. (He was poor on the PP but the whole second unit was bad for most of the season.)

Zajac, 1,265:06, 33 ESP, +3

Ennis 1,245:45, 27 ESP, -25

Backstrom 1,243:08, 34 ESP, -20

Kesler 1,241:02, 26 ESP, -15

Jordan Staal 1,235:38, 26 ESP, +2

Zubrus 1,230:36, 26 ESP, +1

B Richards 1,228:14, 32 ESP, -8

Killorn 1,206:00, 33 ESP, +8

Plekanec 1,205:43, 30 ESP, +11
Gionta 1,200:12, 32 ESP, +1

Vrbata 1,180:00 ES TOI, 30 ESP, - 6
Vermette 1,192:50, 29 ESP, Even

D Sedin 1,175:09, 29 ESP, Even

Kadri 1,159:16, 32 ESP, -11

M Richards 1,029:24, 27 ESP, -6
eayost
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Into the Void, PA
Joined: 04.14.2010

Jun 4 @ 10:22 AM ET
Getting Couts some regular PP wouldn't hurt either. All things considered, 39 points wasn't a bad offensive season for a 21 year old. It could be a lot better if he was used a little differently.
- PhillySportsGuy


Yea having not checked recently, his point totals were higher than I anticipated upon checking to compare to B Schenn. You can tell how smart he is on the ice. The points will come if put in the position to get them, and I don't think his play in the D zone would suffer one bit.
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