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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Drafting Goaltenders
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Tomahawk
Ottawa Senators
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jun 1 @ 11:07 AM ET
Don't even need to see tonight's game to tell you that the Flyers, nor the Rangers as well, are anywhere near Chicago or LA. Whomever wins tonight, will take out the Rags in 5
- BiggE



Rangers are a good step or three ahead of the Flyers, though... without Mason/Emery, it would have been ugly.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jun 1 @ 11:08 AM ET
I am against picketing... I just don't know to express it.
- bmeltzer

Last week I helped my friend stay put. It's a lot easier'n helpin' 'em move. I just went over to his house and made sure that he did not start to load poop into a truck.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jun 1 @ 11:10 AM ET
This team was not as far off as people were saying. When the team was firing on all cylinders we were capable of beating every team in the league. Unfortunately we struggled with consistency. When the team played into the system and back checked our defense didn't even look that bad...and even for small stretches they looked dominant. Holding teams without shots on goal for 10 min+ a night.
- FlyersSteve118

There are some good pieces in place. Giroux is an elite level player. Voracek is borderline elite and a dynamic winger. Simmonds is a PP Beast. Couturier & Read are probably the best PK duo in the NHL. Mason looks to be the answer in net.
FlyersSteve118
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Delco, PA
Joined: 10.02.2013

Jun 1 @ 11:13 AM ET
Rangers are a good step or three ahead of the Flyers, though... without Mason/Emery, it would have been ugly.
- Tomahawk


I think it was a bad match up and we still took them to 7 games. If couts and schenn get a lw and we get rid of dead weight. We can do some damage next year.
mochoson
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Josi is the most overrated player in the nhl. He isnt even close to a top ten. - James_Tanner, NJ
Joined: 02.28.2009

Jun 1 @ 11:24 AM ET
Rangers are a good step or three ahead of the Flyers, though... without Mason/Emery, it would have been ugly.
- Tomahawk


One winger, one face-off ace center, and 1 right handed defensemen.

Three steps/pieces away IMO
hammarby31
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: it's been 84 years, AZ
Joined: 01.02.2007

Jun 1 @ 11:26 AM ET
Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Drafting Goaltenders
- bmeltzer


it would be interesting and perhaps valuable to analyze what goes wrong with goalies (not just flyers prospects) that prevents them from making it and/or succeeding at the nhl level, injuries aside of course?

is it quickness, lateral mobility, puck tracking, rebound control, positioning, mental toughness? a combination? what is it? i discount size from this question, because if a goalie is good with all of the things i mentioned above, but is only 6-0, instead of 6-3, i don't believe that in and of itself is the reason why an otherwise solid goalie would fail.

it just seems like work could be done in this area to aid in drafting, rather than say "it's a crap shoot, they take a long time to develop, so who knows, i guess we'll just take a shot in rounds 4+".

there's a lot of talk about advanced analytics (and i don't pay attention to that or understand it–i just know there's value), but i never hear of any of this applying to goalies. i wonder if there's an aspect of this field that's been created specifically for goalies that could help in terms of drafting/gauging future success.
hammarby31
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: it's been 84 years, AZ
Joined: 01.02.2007

Jun 1 @ 11:30 AM ET
I think it was a bad match up and we still took them to 7 games. If couts and schenn get a lw and we get rid of dead weight. We can do some damage next year.
- FlyersSteve118


their 4th line killed them early, and poopbag carcillo scored twice in that series, while being a partial healthy scratch, including the 1st goal of game 7.

incredible yet entirely predictable.
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Jun 1 @ 11:38 AM ET
it would be interesting and perhaps valuable to analyze what goes wrong with goalies (not just flyers prospects) that prevents them from making it and/or succeeding at the nhl level, injuries aside of course?

is it quickness, lateral mobility, puck tracking, rebound control, positioning, mental toughness? a combination? what is it? i discount size from this question, because if a goalie is good with all of the things i mentioned above, but is only 6-0, instead of 6-3, i don't believe that in and of itself is the reason why an otherwise solid goalie would fail.

it just seems like work could be done in this area to aid in drafting, rather than say "it's a crap shoot, they take a long time to develop, so who knows, i guess we'll just take a shot in rounds 4+".

there's a lot of talk about advanced analytics (and i don't pay attention to that or understand it–i just know there's value), but i never hear of any of this applying to to goalies. i wonder if there's an aspect of this field that's been created specifically for goalies that could help in terms of drafting/gauging future success.

- hammarby31


As you know, so much about the position is about mental toughness and focus -- plus there are so many more mechanics to refine. I don't know of any advanced matrix for goalies, apart from breaking down situational save percentages and tracking where and how goals are scored against that goalie.
hammarby31
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: it's been 84 years, AZ
Joined: 01.02.2007

Jun 1 @ 11:40 AM ET
one other thing to wonder about is how will ron hextall impact their goalie scouting/drafting...you know, because he's ron hextall.
FlyersSteve118
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Delco, PA
Joined: 10.02.2013

Jun 1 @ 11:43 AM ET
As you know, so much about the position is about mental toughness and focus -- plus there are so many more mechanics to refine. I don't know of any advanced matrix for goalies, apart from breaking down situational save percentages and tracking where and how goals are scored against that goalie.
- bmeltzer


Yeah this would explain why goalies seem to perform better when they face 30+ shots in a night.
Giroux_Is_God
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: CLASS DISMISSED
Joined: 12.15.2011

Jun 1 @ 11:43 AM ET
It seems to me that when people think this team is a good, and certainly above average hockey team, they look through "orange colored glasses".

mochoson
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Josi is the most overrated player in the nhl. He isnt even close to a top ten. - James_Tanner, NJ
Joined: 02.28.2009

Jun 1 @ 11:49 AM ET
FORWARDS
Matt Read ($3.625m) / Claude Giroux ($8.275m) / Wayne Simmonds ($3.975m)
Scott Hartnell ($4.750m) / Vincent Lecavalier ($4.500m) / Jakub Voracek ($4.250m)
Michael Raffl ($1.100m) / Sean Couturier ($1.750m) / Scott Laughton ($0.863m)
Blake Comeau ($1.000m) / Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Zac Rinaldo ($0.750m)
DEFENSEMEN
Mark Streit ($5.250m) / Andrew MacDonald ($5.000m)
Braydon Coburn ($4.500m) / Luke Schenn ($3.600m)
Nicklas Grossmann ($3.500m) / Tom Gilbert ($1.250m)
Chris Pronger ($4.941m) /
GOALTENDERS
Steve Mason ($4.100m)
Al Montoya ($1.000m)
BUYOUTS
Daniel Briere ($0.000m)
Ilya Bryzgalov ($0.000m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2014-15)
SALARY CAP: $71,100,000; CAP PAYROLL: $69,479,762; BONUSES: $212,500
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $1,620,238


?
FlyersSteve118
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Delco, PA
Joined: 10.02.2013

Jun 1 @ 12:05 PM ET
FORWARDS
Matt Read ($3.625m) / Claude Giroux ($8.275m) / Wayne Simmonds ($3.975m)
Scott Hartnell ($4.750m) / Vincent Lecavalier ($4.500m) / Jakub Voracek ($4.250m)
Michael Raffl ($1.100m) / Sean Couturier ($1.750m) / Scott Laughton ($0.863m)
Blake Comeau ($1.000m) / Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Zac Rinaldo ($0.750m)
DEFENSEMEN
Mark Streit ($5.250m) / Andrew MacDonald ($5.000m)
Braydon Coburn ($4.500m) / Luke Schenn ($3.600m)
Nicklas Grossmann ($3.500m) / Tom Gilbert ($1.250m)
Chris Pronger ($4.941m) /
GOALTENDERS
Steve Mason ($4.100m)
Al Montoya ($1.000m)
BUYOUTS
Daniel Briere ($0.000m)
Ilya Bryzgalov ($0.000m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2014-15)
SALARY CAP: $71,100,000; CAP PAYROLL: $69,479,762; BONUSES: $212,500
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $1,620,238


?

- mochoson


What happened to b schenn? And you need to have a 23 man roster.
mochoson
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Josi is the most overrated player in the nhl. He isnt even close to a top ten. - James_Tanner, NJ
Joined: 02.28.2009

Jun 1 @ 12:13 PM ET
What happened to b schenn? And you need to have a 23 man roster.
- FlyersSteve118


I thought I signed Schenn on that list. Carrying Prongers cap hit makes it somewhat difficult to get 23 players under cap.
puckhead17
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Old Time Hockey
Joined: 08.14.2011

Jun 1 @ 12:15 PM ET
FORWARDS
Matt Read ($3.625m) / Claude Giroux ($8.275m) / Wayne Simmonds ($3.975m)
Scott Hartnell ($4.750m) / Vincent Lecavalier ($4.500m) / Jakub Voracek ($4.250m)
Michael Raffl ($1.100m) / Sean Couturier ($1.750m) / Scott Laughton ($0.863m)
Blake Comeau ($1.000m) / Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Zac Rinaldo ($0.750m)
DEFENSEMEN
Mark Streit ($5.250m) / Andrew MacDonald ($5.000m)
Braydon Coburn ($4.500m) / Luke Schenn ($3.600m)

Nicklas Grossmann ($3.500m) / Tom Gilbert ($1.250m)
Chris Pronger ($4.941m) /
GOALTENDERS
Steve Mason ($4.100m)
Al Montoya ($1.000m)
BUYOUTS
Daniel Briere ($0.000m)
Ilya Bryzgalov ($0.000m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2014-15)
SALARY CAP: $71,100,000; CAP PAYROLL: $69,479,762; BONUSES: $212,500
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $1,620,238


?

- mochoson


Still not going anywhere with this as a top 4, (not good enough)

mochoson
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Josi is the most overrated player in the nhl. He isnt even close to a top ten. - James_Tanner, NJ
Joined: 02.28.2009

Jun 1 @ 12:17 PM ET
Still not going anywhere with this as a top 4, (not good enough)
- puckhead17


I don't disagree with you really

I was really just trying to see what moves could even be made this summer. We really can't do much of anything.

The more I play with that GM tool, the more I want Kimmo to just retire
puckhead17
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Old Time Hockey
Joined: 08.14.2011

Jun 1 @ 12:18 PM ET
per yahoo:

Glen Sather, the man who paid $45 million to Bobby Holik and $39 million to Wade Redden and $35 million to Chris Drury and then paid them all to make them go away, is four wins away from the Stanley Cup

Go Kings/Blackhawks!
puckhead17
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Old Time Hockey
Joined: 08.14.2011

Jun 1 @ 12:19 PM ET
I don't disagree with you really

I was really just trying to see what moves could even be made this summer. We really can't do much of anything.

The more I play with that GM tool, the more I want Kimmo to just retire

- mochoson



Niskanen cough: I know, too much $$$, but, I would rather pay him $6-7 a year at 27, than Streit $5 a year, at 36.

Technically, he would be getting Kimmo's $$$.
mochoson
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Josi is the most overrated player in the nhl. He isnt even close to a top ten. - James_Tanner, NJ
Joined: 02.28.2009

Jun 1 @ 12:23 PM ET
per yahoo:

Glen Sather, the man who paid $45 million to Bobby Holik and $39 million to Wade Redden and $35 million to Chris Drury and then paid them all to make them go away, is four wins away from the Stanley Cup

Go Kings/Blackhawks!

- puckhead17


But somehow turned Gomez into McDonaugh. Unreal.
mochoson
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Josi is the most overrated player in the nhl. He isnt even close to a top ten. - James_Tanner, NJ
Joined: 02.28.2009

Jun 1 @ 12:25 PM ET
Niskanen cough: I know, too much $$$, but, I would rather pay him $6-7 a year at 27, than Streit $5 a year, at 36.

Technically, he would be getting Kimmo's $$$.

- puckhead17


Niskanen is about to be overpaid by a solid 2, maybe 3 million dollars.

I'm just as big a stars fan as I am a Flyers fan, been watching him forever. He's good, he's not 6 million dollars good.

He would get smoked if he signed here for even 5 mill I think. I think 5.5 is the absolute most I'd give him on a UFA deal, and that's an over payment to me
puckhead17
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Old Time Hockey
Joined: 08.14.2011

Jun 1 @ 12:25 PM ET
But somehow turned Gomez into McDonaugh. Unreal.
- mochoson


I know, for all the GM's who have messed up, they all seemed to have made at least one great trade.
puckhead17
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Old Time Hockey
Joined: 08.14.2011

Jun 1 @ 12:29 PM ET
Niskanen is about to be overpaid by a solid 2, maybe 3 million dollars.

I'm just as big a stars fan as I am a Flyers fan, been watching him forever. He's good, he's not 6 million dollars good.

He would get smoked if he signed here for even 5 mill I think. I think 5.5 is the absolute most I'd give him on a UFA deal, and that's an over payment to me

- mochoson


I know he's an overpayment, but:

Carle $5.5
Streit $5.25
Just a few examples, maybe he goes for $5.5-$6, I don't know.
But it's about supply & demand, Kimmo is no longer a top 4 guy, and we need a guy of his "ilk" worse than anything.
He has good size, mobility, 40+ points, & can run the PP.
mochoson
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Josi is the most overrated player in the nhl. He isnt even close to a top ten. - James_Tanner, NJ
Joined: 02.28.2009

Jun 1 @ 12:35 PM ET
I know he's an overpayment, but:

Carle $5.5
Streit $5.25
Just a few examples, maybe he goes for $5.5-$6, I don't know.
But it's about supply & demand, Kimmo is no longer a top 4 guy, and we need a guy of his "ilk" worse than anything.
He has good size, mobility, 40+ points, & can run the PP.

- puckhead17


I think Niskanen will get 5.5 at a minimum. I agree Kimmo is no longer a top 4 guy, but I feel we already have 4 dmen roughly as valuable as Niskanen.

He's only really had 2 seasons where he put up a lot of points. If we didn't sign AndyMac I'd be interested. But our top-4 is basically locked up for awhile.
puckhead17
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Old Time Hockey
Joined: 08.14.2011

Jun 1 @ 12:39 PM ET
I think Niskanen will get 5.5 at a minimum. I agree Kimmo is no longer a top 4 guy, but I feel we already have 4 dmen roughly as valuable as Niskanen.

He's only really had 2 seasons where he put up a lot of points. If we didn't sign AndyMac I'd be interested. But our top-4 is basically locked up for awhile.

- mochoson


Sorry, I disagree, he's better than that. I'm not saying he's Weber, nor Suter, but luke can't play more than 20 minutes, he's not a top 4, and what if Streit starts to show his age?
We would be screwed.
stayinthefnnet
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 01.12.2012

Jun 1 @ 12:49 PM ET
I know he's an overpayment, but:

Carle $5.5
Streit $5.25
Just a few examples, maybe he goes for $5.5-$6, I don't know.
But it's about supply & demand, Kimmo is no longer a top 4 guy, and we need a guy of his "ilk" worse than anything.
He has good size, mobility, 40+ points, & can run the PP.

- puckhead17


yeah that about sums it up. hes gonna get overpaid. no question. but its just how much.

id take niskanen at 5.5 before i took carle at the same deal.

your description of him is 100 percent accurate, too. he is a much better player now than in dallas.
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