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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Disssecting Flyers' Even-Strength Issues
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MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

May 4 @ 2:02 PM ET
Shooting percentage varies from year to year. It has mostly to do with luck. A player can have a bad year, but shoot a high percentage just as a player can have a good year and shoot a low percentage.

Scott Hartnell had a low shooting percentage this season but still fired the same amount of shots at the net he usually does. There is reason to believe he will produce his usual 25 goals next season if he plays similarly to this season.

A guy like Voracek shot 17% last season. His usual shooting percentage is about 10%. Therefore, he had some puck luck last season. Thats why he was a point per game player last season then returned to his usual output this season. It doesn't mean he regressed or wasn't a good player. He just didn't have the luck he had last year.

Lecavalier had the highest shooting percentage of his career this past season. I said in a normal season (12% shooting percentage) he would have had about 15-16 goals. He had a great deal of puck luck.

I know its pointless to point these things out to you because all you care about is total goals. I'm just letting you know theres an equally good chance VL shoots 9% as there is he shoots 15.2% again. 9% would have resulted in 12 goals. If VL takes 132 shots next season (same as this season), there is a 95% chance he will finish with between 12-20 goals.

- PhillySportsGuy


First of all, let's get some facts straight. Lecavalier did not have the highest shooting percentage of his career this past season. He shot 15.2% this season. His career high shooting percentage was in 06/07 at 15.3%. He has shot in the 15% range 3 times in his career.
So let me see if I got this right. Lecavalier only scored 20 goals this year because he had puck luck? This guy has had a lot of puck luck in his career. Because he's scored 20 or more goals in 13 out of his 15 NHL Seasons. I've made that statement numerous times, and it seems as though it's been pointless to point that out. It's not luck or an anomaly that Lecavalier scored 20 goals thins season. It's due to his ability to shoot the puck. And there's something missing from the equation that you offered. And that's again, the injury and position change. If he was healthy, and stayed at center. Probably looking at a 25-30 goal season from Lecavalier this past year. And more shots on net, regardless of what his percentage would've been. When a guy is a proven goal scorer as he is. Luck has squat to do with it.


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