That's why we're all here.
- wolfhounds

What's really interesting is just looking at games as wins and losses. And there could be some human error here on my part.

Looking at the CorsiFor% for each game. When the Flyers have won, they have the better of CorsiFor at over 50% 18 times. They have won when they had less then 50% in CorsiFor 11 times.

In losses, the Flyers had 13 losses when they were under 50% in CorsiFor. And they had 14 losses when over 50%. And in one loss it was even at 50%.

And what's really interesting is when the Flyers were blown out.

When they lost 7-0 to Washington, the Flyers were the slightly better team with 51.8% CorsiFor.

When the Flyers lost to Chicago 7-2. The Flyers were the better CorsiFor team with 53.1%

Trounced by the Blue Jackets 6-3. The Flyers were the better CorsiFor team with 52.4%.

Smoked by the Lightning 6-3. The Flyers had a whopping CorsiFor of 65.3%
- MJL

The team with the better possession numbers doesn't always win... just like the team with the better SV% doesn't always win, or the team with more scoring chances doesn't always win... but over a sample as large as 82-games, where the bounces/luck/randomness/PDO tends to even out, better possession teams tend to win at a marginally greater rate than bad ones, just as you would expect the team with the best goalies and most efficient shooters to eventually come out on top at the end. The key difference is, possession is repeatable, whereas SV% and SH% have been proven to be more random/easily influenced by other variables. Hence Corsi/Fenwick.

That brings us to...

Score Affects: teams with leads tend to sit on them, while teams that are behind ratchet up the pressure and pour on the shots -- I think we all know that to be true. The bigger the lead, the more exaggerated the phenomenon. To adjust for this, we prefer to restrict the sample size to 1-goal/tied situations.

Looking at single-game numbers is often interesting, but as isolated data points, they don't tell you very much statistically.

Is there a site or anything that has audio streams of the Olympic hockey games? I'd prefer no video, though I'm sure Verizon, AT&T, etc. does.

The team with the better possession numbers doesn't always win... just like the team with the better SV% doesn't always win, or the team with more scoring chances doesn't always win... but over a sample as large as 82-games, where the bounces/luck/randomness/PDO tends to even out, better possession teams tend to win at a marginally greater rate than bad ones, just as you would expect the team with the best goalies and most efficient shooters to eventually come out on top at the end. The key difference is, possession is repeatable, whereas SV% and SH% have been proven to be more random/easily influenced by other variables. Hence Corsi/Fenwick.

That brings us to...

Score Affects: teams with leads tend to sit on them, while teams that are behind ratchet up the pressure and pour on the shots -- I think we all know that to be true. The bigger the lead, the more exaggerated the phenomenon. To adjust for this, we prefer to restrict the sample size to 1-goal/tied situations.

Looking at single-game numbers is often interesting, but as isolated data points, they don't tell you very much statistically.
- Tomahawk

I've stated repeatedly that I think that a team that has the puck more, and therefore has an edge in shot differential, ups the odds of that team winning a game. Now that we got that out of the way.
Let's get back to why I offered the game stats that I did. And it was to counter the statement that with the Flyers Corsi numbers as they are, it's going to be tough for them to make the playoffs. I believe that it will be somewhat of a factor, but not a large one. And I disagree that looking at single numbers don't tell you very much statistically. This is another area where I think things go off track. It's not about if possession is repeatable or not, but if it is actually being repeated or not. In the Flyers case it is not. But yet they're still solidly in a playoff spot right now. Looking at the Flyers games this year, the shot differential is somewhat of a factor, but not a large one. And those numbers show you a lot about how this team plays, and what kind of a team it is. It's not a dominant team. But it is a team that has a very good chance of making the playoffs. For a variety of reasons. It could also miss the playoffs for a variety of reasons. And when I look at the Flyers and assess whether I think they'll make the playoffs or not, I'm not going to hang my hat on analytics. They're just not that good. And looking at the Flyers single game numbers over the Season, tells you that.

This Canada-USA women's game is quite entertaining.

This Canada-USA women's game is quite entertaining.
- Jsaquella

One of the biggest rivalries in hockey.

I've stated repeatedly that I think that a team that has the puck more, and therefore has an edge in shot differential, ups the odds of that team winning a game. Now that we got that out of the way.

...

I'm not going to hang my hat on analytics. They're just not that good. And looking at the Flyers single game numbers over the Season, tells you that.
- MJL

To sum up: possession is connected to winning... but numbers that describe possession shouldn't factor into predictions on the Flyers' chances to make the PO's... because I looked at the game-by-game data (never mind that I didn't actually do it correctly) and failed to understand what I was looking at?

Sound about right?

To sum up: possession is connected to winning... but numbers that describe possession shouldn't factor into predictions on the Flyers' chances to make the PO's... because I looked at the game-by-game data (never mind that I didn't actually do it correctly) and failed to understand what I was looking at?

Sound about right?
- Tomahawk

Without going back an rereading every post.

If you have the puck more often than not, and generate more shots than not, then in general you have a better chance to win. I don't think anyone will debate that.
However, hockey is not played on a stat sheet. You're talking about 12 grown men on a sheet on ice moving at speeds of up to 30 mph swinging their sticks around to move a rubber disc back and forth. Those numbers do not account for the following:
- quality of the ice
- ability of either goalie
- quality of shots generated
- redirected/deflected shots
- ability to block shots
- score (relative to intensity level and therefore puck possession)
- strange puck caroms

Off the top of my head. Advanced stats are a general measuring stick, but play no part in showing whether a particular (as in one specific) team is better suited to win or not. One example is the 94/95 Devils, a team who was outshot by a wide margin on a nightly basis, but rode a strong goalie and an innovative defensive system to a Stanley Cup. They may be the exception rather than the norm, but it just shows that each game must be played on the ice and all variables must be accounted for more than just the possession statistics.

Is that fair?

Without going back an rereading every post.

If you have the puck more often than not, and generate more shots than not, then in general you have a better chance to win. I don't think anyone will debate that.
However, hockey is not played on a stat sheet. You're talking about 12 grown men on a sheet on ice moving at speeds of up to 30 mph swinging their sticks around to move a rubber disc back and forth. Those numbers do not account for the following:
- quality of the ice
- ability of either goalie
- quality of shots generated
- redirected/deflected shots
- ability to block shots
- score (relative to intensity level and therefore puck possession)
- strange puck caroms

Off the top of my head. Advanced stats are a general measuring stick, but play no part in showing whether a particular (as in one specific) team is better suited to win or not. One example is the 94/95 Devils, a team who was outshot by a wide margin on a nightly basis, but rode a strong goalie and an innovative defensive system to a Stanley Cup. They may be the exception rather than the norm, but it just shows that each game must be played on the ice and all variables must be accounted for more than just the possession statistics.

Is that fair?
- jmatchett383

We live in a world where the numbers are deeply relied upon by businesses, governments, scientists and consumer groups to describe multi-variable things like complex markets, product reliability, human behavior and the freakin' weather, and you're telling me the buck stops at hockey, because men with sticks?

We live in a world where the numbers are deeply relied upon by businesses, governments, scientists and consumer groups to describe multi-variable things like complex markets, product reliability, human behavior and the freakin' weather, and you're telling me the buck stops at hockey, because men with sticks?
- Tomahawk

Yes. That's exactly what I'm saying. You level of comprehension of that post was exquisite.

To sum up: possession is connected to winning... but numbers that describe possession shouldn't factor into predictions on the Flyers' chances to make the PO's... because I looked at the game-by-game data (never mind that I didn't actually do it correctly) and failed to understand what I was looking at?

Sound about right?
- Tomahawk

One of the parts of my post that you quoted clearly stated that I believe that if a team has the puck more, and generates more shots, has a better chance of winning. In other words it is somewhat of a factor. But not a factor that is great enough to be the prevailing predictor of whether the Flyers will make the playoffs or not.
And it has nothing to do with any one person. But the nature of the Flyers team this year, and what their game numbers have been to this point. And it's pretty clear that with this Flyers team. Corsi numbers aren't a huge factor in whether they win or lose, and by proxy, whether they'll make the playoffs or not.
And lastly, I'm not interested in talking about posters, only about the subject matter.

Now if it wants to be stated that if the Flyers improved their puck movement as a team, became a better possesion team. And generated more shots for then against and improved that aspect of their team. That they would be a better team then they are now. I would agree with that 100%. And I have stated that umpteen times.

One of the biggest rivalries in hockey.
- tangent_man

Hilary Knight is all over the place. She's been dominant

We live in a world where the numbers are deeply relied upon by businesses, governments, scientists and consumer groups to describe multi-variable things like complex markets, product reliability, human behavior and the freakin' weather, and you're telling me the buck stops at hockey, because men with sticks?
- Tomahawk

Yea and the Business World and the economy is doing great. Government is extremely well run. Scientists are doing a great job predicting global warming. And the weather men are always right!

People don't like statistics which don't confirm to their prejudices. This will never change.

People don't like statistics which don't confirm to their prejudices. This will never change.
- Feanor

Cart before the horse. It's the prejudices that I don't like, not the stats. I like Corsi. I think it has value. But that value is limited.

Yup, I'm really getting tired of this crap. No doubt we've made up for the fact that we haven't really had winter the last few years in this region. Made up for it and then some. And I fully expect Wednesday/Thursday to produce some sort of epic blizzard with power outages and evil flying monkeys.
- wolfhounds

dont worry. temple law will keep its doors open

dont worry. temple law will keep its doors open
- stayinthefnnet

I plan on waking up at 7am. Making myself a nice breakfast. Enjoying that breakfast while watching USA hockey then taking the day off and lounging in a nice, warm house.

Even though the game was meaningless, I really wanted to see a US win over Canada. They'll get another chance at them later.

I plan on waking up at 7am. Making myself a nice breakfast. Enjoying that breakfast while watching USA hockey then taking the day off and lounging in a nice, warm house.
- PhillySportsGuy

ill evaluate the weather when it comes. itll probably be too bad for me to want to even make the trip even if they are maniacal and stay open

One example is the 94/95 Devils, a team who was outshot by a wide margin on a nightly basis, but rode a strong goalie and an innovative defensive system to a Stanley Cup.
- jmatchett383

94/95 Devils:

Regular: +4.7 differential (30.1 S/G vs 25.4 SA/G)
Playoffs: +7.2 differential (30.4 S/G vs. 23.2 SA/G)



Damned lying stats.

- 2Real

My cat did this at 3am. He was black and the bag was white, so you can imagine what it looked like in the dark....

Yes. That's exactly what I'm saying. You level of comprehension of that post was exquisite.
- jmatchett383

I'm just a hockey fan. I'm not a GM or someone that makes a living off of the sport. This is why advanced stats don't mean anything to me. Do I need I drill down the numbers so far to see how much better grossman or any other player is if they take a poop before or after a game? Nope.

I'm sure there is plenty of merit and usefulness to those in the business, but as a hockey fan, I couldn't care less.



On another note, can't wait for the men's Olympic hockey to start. Withdrawal is kicking into high gear!

I'm just a hockey fan. I'm not a GM or someone that makes a living off of the sport. This is why advanced stats don't mean anything to me. Do I need I drill down the numbers so far to see how much better grossman or any other player is if they take a poop before or after a game? Nope.

I'm sure there is plenty of merit and usefulness to those in the business, but as a hockey fan, I couldn't care less.



On another note, can't wait for the men's Olympic hockey to start. Withdrawal is kicking into high gear!
- funmaster18

All of a sudden, I'm really hoping we get pummeled with snow. I want a damn good excuse to stay in and watch the US game tomorrow.

All of a sudden, I'm really hoping we get pummeled with snow. I want a damn good excuse to stay in and watch the US game tomorrow.
- BulliesPhan87