I was joking. Did you see the Corsi sign?
I agree this board is about hockey (or humor where appropriate).
- FlyersFirst

We're in agreement. I took it the wrong way, sorry for the lecture.

Nah dude I think he was just joking with that comment too!

It's all good
- Giroux_Is_God

I was. Phew. Problem solved.

Super, a complete mis-characterization of the points I raised once again.

Returning to an attack on stats, when I specifically mentioned that they were not the basis of my opinion. But hey, I suppose that something needs to be done to feed that massive need to be right in every argument.

I find it hilarious that someone banned for numerous month and who needed to send plenty of PMs during their ban to share their opinion with others has to rush in and restart the same moronic behavior that got them banned & chased several good posters away long ago.

That's the problem with this stuff. Don't appreciate your opinion on who you think I support. The good thing about this board is its relative civility and that it sticks to hockey. I'd prefer to see no political talk. There are a multitude of other places for those discussions.
- 2731color

Ok I'm gonna do it. I'm taking the bait.

IN MY OPINION:

Advanced stats in the NHL are a very fickle animal. In fact, all stats are. Hockey is the teamiest team sport there is, and each and every single little stat can be skewed, inflated, deflated, or anything in between because of this, or other lurking variable factors.

Kunitz's goal totals- he plays next to Crosby
Goalies' GAA is often heavily influenced by team D
Ovechkin's goal totals- he just plants himself for the one timer on the powerplay for a third of them
Shea Weber's goal totals- of course he'll score more than most Dmen...he probably takes 80% more shots than anyone but Karlsson
+/- horrible statistic we all know has many flaws

See what I mean? There are SO MANY factors to take into account, and most are intangible. This whole Gustafson thing is a good example- maybe he leads the team in +/- because he plays against poorer opposing lines. Maybe he has NOTHING TO DO WITH ANYTHING because it's just luck, at that point?

My point more or less, is that hockey is NOT baseball. Baseball's advanced stats are a powerful tool, in my opinion. What happens in baseball? The pitcher pitches the ball, the batter hits the ball somewhere, and fielders field it. You look at things like BABAP (batting avg of balls in play)- that's a stat, if high, that tells us the batter may regress because he's hitting balls where people ain't. i.e. he's getting a bit lucky. Or WHIP, which isn't even really that advanced- that truly shows how dominant a pitcher is- a low WHIP = this pitcher is not giving up walks or hits. This pitcher is dominating.

See what I mean? You can't try to scour over advanced stats in hockey because it's not a simple game. There's no "player A passes, player B shoots, player B scores". It's so much more than that. It's fluent with endless possibilities. Powerplays, failed clears, poor position, offsides, turnovers, chips in the ice....

Can you use advanced stats? Sure. But I think even saying they're supplementary is too much. There are so many lurking variables that can't be covered....so many things to take into account that WILL influence a statistic and it's not possible nor worthwhile IMO to put any more than initial, "springboard" stock into adv stats.

Just watch the players. Watch them play the game.
- Giroux_Is_God

Extremely well said. In looking at the advanced stats, they can paint a pretty good picture of what happened, but they cannot tell you definitively how it happened. For the very reasons that you pointed out. Just too much of a team game, and too many variables involved.
Corsi, which is the base for a lot of the other analytics that have gained popularity, is just simply a +/- of shots. It tracks shot differential. It improved upon traditional +/- because goals are a much smaller sample size in a game then shots are. But it has the same issue that +/- has. False data. Simply put, a player can receive a plus or minus on a play, when he had absolutely nothing to do with it. And those false positives and negatives can be as high as 40% of the data. Same with shots registered on the ice and Corsi.
Just using the player in question, Grossmann. He has poor possession numbers and is not a good puck mover. But let's say hypothetically, the Flyers used Nick Grossmann in better situations. Such as more offensive starts, and with better players. Such as being paired with Timonen and put out with the Giroux line. Any guess as to what may happen with Grossmann's Corsi numbers then? They probably would improve. Would that them mean that Grossmann now has player better, is a good puck mover, and a driver of possession? No, he would just be a passenger on the bus! But still the same player. Context is everything.

Super, a complete mis-characterization of the points I raised once again.

Returning to an attack on stats, when I specifically mentioned that they were not the basis of my opinion. But hey, I suppose that something needs to be done to feed that massive need to be right in every argument.

I find it hilarious that someone banned for numerous month and who needed to send plenty of PMs during their ban to share their opinion with others has to rush in and restart the same moronic behavior that got them banned & chased several good posters away long ago.
- Jsaquella

Jsaq I wasn't attacking you or anyone. Just wanted to share my viewpoints. I don't even think I raised any of the points you made

Nor did I get PMs from anyone. It's been happening for days now and I got sucked in I couldn't help myself

Not disagreeing with or calling out you, MJL, OB, or anyone else. Just saying what I think.

Bottom line no matter who likes them or doesn't teams do use them down to the junior level.

They are not perfect by any means and how teams use them we may never know and if so how it differs from each team.

But to ignore it would be foolish of anybody. Each of the last 5 cups teams have admitted using them to some level, that is just too hard to ignore or dismiss.
- ob18

They should be looked at. They have definite value and help paint a picture of what happens out there.

We're in agreement. I took it the wrong way, sorry for the lecture.
- 2731color

Yep!! Ok, now would your vote for Grossmann for congress??

Jsaq I wasn't attacking you or anyone. Just wanted to share my viewpoints. I don't even think I raised any of the points you made

Nor did I get PMs from anyone. It's been happening for days now and I got sucked in I couldn't help myself

Not disagreeing with or calling out you, MJL, OB, or anyone else. Just saying what I think.
- Giroux_Is_God

Was not directed at you.

I made comments about Grossmann. I used some stats to emphasize my issues with Grossmann to show trends when he was on ice. That led to an attack on stats, rather than a reply to my actual points.

It led to a week of trashing stats, which is fine, because my use of some stats was anecdotal. It didn't address the point I was making, rather changed the discussion from a player to an attack on stats.

That's what my comment was about

They should be looked at. They have definite value and help paint a picture of what happens out there.
- MJL

Indeed. But basing articles, trade proposals, etc OFF OF THEM- that is, using them as your "main source"- is not the way to go, in my opinion.

- 77rams

TWO THINGS: Let's go Flyers and let's go Don Earle.
By the way, I met Bertie the Bunyip and his father, Lee... a long time ago.

Here's the problem with defending Grossman: he has the worst GAON/60 among the D (that matter) for the season. The Flyers are MORE LIKELY to be scored on when he is on the ice than any other D. At the same time, Grossman has the worst GFON/60 among the D (that matter). So, the Flyers are LESS LIKELY to score a goal when he is on the ice than any other D.

Disregarding the advanced stats that irritate so many, these two stats are deeply condemning of Grossman. Nor is this a small sample.

It is totally fair to note that Grossman has always had his limitations, but in the past he had one stat that worked in his favor: the other team didn't score when he was on the ice. He no longer has that going for him. Last year among D that played 20+ games Grossman led the team in GAON/60. His numbers the year before were strong as well, and his final season with Dallas was excellent as well.

Right now, the scoreboard is talking, and it demonstrably states that Grossman has been ineffective. If you are going to provide zero forward movement of the puck, you better at least keep it out of your own net.

As far as the ASF article... what's funny about it to me is that the entire thing reads like the hockey version of Ruben Amaro's defense of signing Delmon Young by pointing to his RBI totals. Stats guys were right about Young, and right now they are right about Grossman.

Perhaps Grossman will turn these trends around, but right now empirical data ain't going his way.

Here's the problem with defending Grossman: he has the worst GAON/60 among the D (that matter) for the season. The Flyers are MORE LIKELY to be scored on when he is on the ice than any other D. At the same time, Grossman has the worst GFON/60 among the D (that matter). So, the Flyers are LESS LIKELY to score a goal when he is on the ice than any other D.

Disregarding the advanced stats that irritate so many, these two stats are deeply condemning of Grossman. Nor is this a small sample.

It is totally fair to note that Grossman has always had his limitations, but in the past he had one stat that worked in his favor: the other team didn't score when he was on the ice. He no longer has that going for him. Last year among D that played 20+ games Grossman led the team in GAON/60. His numbers the year before were strong as well, and his final season with Dallas was excellent as well.

Right now, the scoreboard is talking, and it demonstrably states that Grossman has been ineffective. If you are going to provide zero forward movement of the puck, you better at least keep it out of your own net.

As far as the ASF article... what's funny about it to me is that the entire thing reads like the hockey version of Ruben Amaro's defense of signing Delmon Young by pointing to his RBI totals. Stats guys were right about Young, and right now they are right about Grossman.

Perhaps Grossman will turn these trends around, but right now empirical data ain't going his way.
- gollum

Get ready for the argument that you can't tell who to blame for that by looking at stats.

Indeed. But basing articles, trade proposals, etc OFF OF THEM- that is, using them as your "main source"- is not the way to go, in my opinion.
- Giroux_Is_God

I agree totally. So then I think the discussion should move towards Grossmann's actual play on the ice. And there's no doubt that he had a poor stretch in January, that he deserves criticism for. I think there are some extenuating circumstances involved there. But as always, the player himself is most responsible. Besides that poor stretch, Grossmann overall this Season has been what he's always been as a Flyer. A reliable stay at home defenseman, who does the dirty work. But he has limitations to his game. No doubt. And I won't argue for a second with any opinion offered that if the Flyers could upgrade there to a player who cannot only handle those defensive assignments, but can also improve the mobility and puck skills at that spot, would greatly improve the Flyers as a team. In other words, add a more well rounded all around player, versus a role playing defensive D man to play 18-20 minutes a night.

Here's the problem with defending Grossman: he has the worst GAON/60 among the D (that matter) for the season. The Flyers are MORE LIKELY to be scored on when he is on the ice than any other D. At the same time, Grossman has the worst GFON/60 among the D (that matter). So, the Flyers are LESS LIKELY to score a goal when he is on the ice than any other D.

Disregarding the advanced stats that irritate so many, these two stats are deeply condemning of Grossman. Nor is this a small sample.

It is totally fair to note that Grossman has always had his limitations, but in the past he had one stat that worked in his favor: the other team didn't score when he was on the ice. He no longer has that going for him. Last year among D that played 20+ games Grossman led the team in GAON/60. His numbers the year before were strong as well, and his final season with Dallas was excellent as well.

Right now, the scoreboard is talking, and it demonstrably states that Grossman has been ineffective. If you are going to provide zero forward movement of the puck, you better at least keep it out of your own net.

As far as the ASF article... what's funny about it to me is that the entire thing reads like the hockey version of Ruben Amaro's defense of signing Delmon Young by pointing to his RBI totals. Stats guys were right about Young, and right now they are right about Grossman.

Perhaps Grossman will turn these trends around, but right now empirical data ain't going his way.
- gollum

That would have far more validity, and relevance if Grossmann was the only player on the ice when those goals were scored.

Get ready for the argument that you can't tell who to blame for that by looking at stats.
- Jsaquella

I don't care enough.

Everyone has their own GAON and you can stack em up. In the past, Grossman has performed strongly in that stat. He's always been a black hole for team offense.

But, here's the larger point: it doesn't matter if it's Grossman's "fault." The team as currently constructed is bleeding when he's on the ice. Don't know why that is this year as opposed to previous years. May be a touch of running "bad luck," or it could be that he's a bad fit.

After 2

Rimouski - 3
Charlottetown - 3

No points for Morin

That would have far more validity, and relevance if Grossmann was the only player on the ice when those goals were scored.
- MJL

No, because I know all those guys numbers as well. To be clear, I have no problem with Grossman per se, but he's been ineffective this year.

I don't care enough.

Everyone has their own GAON and you can stack em up. In the past, Grossman has performed strongly in that stat. He's always been a black hole for team offense.

But, here's the larger point: it doesn't matter if it's Grossman's "fault." The team as currently constructed is bleeding when he's on the ice. Don't know why that is this year as opposed to previous years. May be a touch of running "bad luck," or it could be that he's a bad fit.
- gollum

Exactly what my point was a week or so ago when I mentioned his issues and used CF% to show a similar trend and got the same idiotic argument you just had made against your very valid & well stated point.

No, because I know all those guys numbers as well. To be clear, I have no problem with Grossman per se, but he's been ineffective this year.
- gollum

Those numbers are not capable of pointing out or singling out anyone player as to how they played.
Hockey Coaches review game film and scoring chances to see who is actually responsible.
One of the first pioneers of using analytics, was Roger Neilsen. But the key was that he used them in conjunction with video. He developed his own +/- system based not on raw numbers that can't isolate one player. But on rather who was actually responsible, and where the breakdown was. Not blindly looking at numbers and drawing false conclusions.
A week or so ago, I reviewed all of the highlights of goals scored against the Flyers when Grossmann was on the ice. Far more often then not, Grossmann had his coverage, and the breakdown was elsewhere.

TWO THINGS: Let's go Flyers and let's go Don Earle.
By the way, I met Bertie the Bunyip and his father, Lee... a long time ago.
- 2731color

Now THAT'S cool!

Was my favorite, Sir Guy de Guy, with them?

Exactly what my point was a week or so ago when I mentioned his issues and used CF% to show a similar trend and got the same idiotic argument you just had made against your very valid & well stated point.
- Jsaquella

I understand (but don't agree with) reticence with regard to "advanced" metrics like that, but GA/GF is a blunt, and empirically specific stat. There is nothing advanced about it.

If your losing on the scoreboard, then your losing. Period. We don't need to get into discussions of where shots came from, etc.

Great blob, Bill. There is a place for all of these things. Players need to be evaluated using a variety of methods. I feel teams get into trouble when they become too reliant on specific methods.

I understand (but don't agree with) reticence with regard to "advanced" metrics like that, but GA/GF is a blunt, and empirically specific stat. There is nothing advanced about it.

If your losing on the scoreboard, then your losing. Period. We don't need to get into discussions of where shots came from, etc.
- gollum

You are right, nothing advanced about it. But where the flaw is, is just what we saw. That because Grossmann's GAON/60 is the worst on the team, well that means that he hasn't played well or hasn't been effective. Not true.