A combination of team shooting percentage and team save percentage, it's called PDO. League average is 100, so shoot 10 and save 90. Any team way above or way below is due for a regression to the mean. Obviously more skilled teams like the Hawks and Penguins are going to shoot a higher percentage on average than the Panthers. But pretty much each year it fluctuates, and after 82 games there's rarely any significant outliers, none in the data available that I can find right now. And I get some people will say well that team is good at shooting and good at goaltending, doesn't mean they're getting lucky. But when you look year to year pretty much no team stays consistently high in SV% or SH%, its just there's a lot of randomness and luck to hockey, and while its not fun to chalk things up to luck always, its important I think that its recognized when its happening, and its happening in StL, ANA, and Colorado
- rollpards19

Oh. Thanks.

Keens
- Beaver-Warrior

Beav you ever heard of a band out of Portland called Typhoon?

Oh. Thanks.
- Elbows15

Think of it this way, based on offensive talent, who do you think would shoot a higher percentage, the Blue Jackets or the Sharks?

Beav you ever heard of a band out of Portland called Typhoon?
- rollpards19

You're asking the wrong person. Now if you're wondering about the last time I saw The Grateful Dead.

Beav's well documented as being a Mycophile, and I think Chanterelles are in season.
- Ogilthorpe2

another flight question...what do they use to de-ice planes..

A combination of team shooting percentage and team save percentage, it's called PDO. League average is 100, so shoot 10 and save 90. Any team way above or way below is due for a regression to the mean. Obviously more skilled teams like the Hawks and Penguins are going to shoot a higher percentage on average than the Panthers. But pretty much each year it fluctuates, and after 82 games there's rarely any significant outliers, none in the data available that I can find right now. And I get some people will say well that team is good at shooting and good at goaltending, doesn't mean they're getting lucky. But when you look year to year pretty much no team stays consistently high in SV% or SH%, its just there's a lot of randomness and luck to hockey, and while its not fun to chalk things up to luck always, its important I think that its recognized when its happening, and its happening in StL, ANA, and Colorado
- rollpards19

I think you are seeing this in the Leafs now...

I hate the reliance on randomness for hockey more so than other sports...

To be honest it is often justification for those who rely on analytics to paint the whole picture...Like Corsi..

Hockey is a much different sport than others and can't be compartmentalized like baseball for example.

There are more variables in hockey by its very nature and given that plus there is a high degree of subjectivity in stat accumulation....Which lends itself to more random outcomes.

Any analysis.....regression to the mean or otherwise relies on accurate data and of all major sports Hockey is likely the most inaccurate.

The Kings pound away, but the Blackhawks pounded but don't wilt, and win 5-3.On The Blackhawks: Fox Chicago:
http://bit.ly/MWRC2p

Think of it this way, based on offensive talent, who do you think would shoot a higher percentage, the Blue Jackets or the Sharks?
- rollpards19

I got it. And given advance stats for hockey it actually makes sense.

another flight question...what do they use to de-ice planes..
- Glenman12

Drunks peeing on the plane. I think Ogi mentioned it once before and I think it was glycol.

I think you are seeing this in the Leafs now...

I hate the reliance on randomness for hockey more so than other sports...

To be honest it is often justification for those who rely on analytics to paint the whole picture...Like Corsi..

Hockey is a much different sport than others and can't be compartmentalized like baseball for example.

There are more variables in hockey by its very nature and given that plus there is a high degree of subjectivity in stat accumulation....Which lends itself to more random outcomes.

Any analysis.....regression to the mean or otherwise relies on accurate data and of all major sports Hockey is likely the most inaccurate.

The Kings pound away, but the Blackhawks pounded but don't wilt, and win 5-3.On The Blackhawks: Fox Chicago:
http://bit.ly/MWRC2p
- Al

Two teams out of the 150 teams in the NHL the last five years (full season, 48 allows for so much randomness) have had a better 5v5 PDO than the Avalanche this year. The mean is always 100-100.3. Its only 5 years of data, but I disagree with your assessment that the analysis of shooting and save % is flawed or inaccurate

I got it. And given advance stats for hockey it actually makes sense.
- Elbows15

Yeah. Just for reference the numbers this year show the Jackets are 30% better at shooting than the Sharks. We all know that's simply not true.

another flight question...what do they use to de-ice planes..
- Glenman12

Propylene Glycol mostly.

Deicing fluid is usually a heated mix of Glycol and water and is used to remove snow and ice accumulation. It's typically dyed pink or orange for identification purposes. It also has limited anti-icing properties that help prevent new accumulation.

Usually though, if it's actively precipitating, deicing is followed immediately by anti-icing which is not diluted with water and goes on cold. It's also thicker and more viscous than the deicing fluid, and is dyed green. The thicker, more clingy anti-icing fluid is what gives a plane the ability to taxi for extended time periods in active snow or sleet without having the flight controls become icy again.

Deice - Pink



Anti-ice - green



Quiz tomorrow.

Two teams out of the 150 teams in the NHL the last five years (full season, 48 allows for so much randomness) have had a better 5v5 PDO than the Avalanche this year. The mean is always 100-100.3. Its only 5 years of data, but I disagree with your assessment that the analysis of shooting and save % is flawed or inaccurate
- rollpards19

I am talking about regression analysis in general...Not this specific stat.

Shots on goal and save % compared to other categories aren't the most inaccurate but I guarantee both stats are often wrong.

Not like balls and strikes...being called by an umpire 3 ft off the plate.

If you watched how and where the stats are accumulated I think your opinion would be a lot different.

There are reasons why many times the goal scorer is not correctly named until a lot later. It is a fast sport and off ice officials are human and they are forced to go quickly and don't have the best tools to do their job and are often understaffed....

Other stats like TOI, hits, takeaways giveaways etc are either hard to keep track of on the fly or subjective as is the case with takeaways or giveaways....hits

My comment was about "randomness" which is often use to explain how things can happen when the analytics don't back up the outcome.

The Kings pound away, but the Blackhawks pounded but don't wilt, and win 5-3.On The Blackhawks: Fox Chicago:
http://bit.ly/MWRC2p

Propylene Glycol mostly.

Deicing fluid is usually a heated mix of Glycol and water and is used to remove snow and ice accumulation. It's typically died pink or orange for identification purposes. It also has limited anti-icing properties that help prevent new accumulation.

Usually though, if it's actively precipitating, deicing is followed immediately by anti-icing which is not diluted with water and goes on cold. It's also thicker and more viscous than the deicing fluid, and is died green. The thicker, more clingy anti-icing fluid is what gives a plane the ability to taxi for extended time periods in active snow or sleet without having the flight controls become icy again.

Quiz tomorrow.
- Ogilthorpe2

And what of the waste stream? What happens to the stuff after it drips off the plane?

I am talking about regression analysis in general...Not this specific stat.

Shots on goal and save % compared to other categories aren't the most inaccurate but I guarantee both stats are often wrong.

Not like balls and strikes...being called by an umpire 3 ft off the plate.

If you watched how and where the stats are accumulated I think your opinion would be a lot different.

There are reasons why many times the goal scorer is not correctly named until a lot later. It is a fast sport and off ice officials are human and they are forced to go quickly and don't have the best tools to do their job and are often understaffed....

Other stats like TOI, hits, takeaways giveaways etc are either hard to keep track of on the fly or subjective as is the case with takeaways or giveaways....hits

My comment was about "randomness" which is often use to explain how things can happen when the analytics don't back up the outcome.

The Kings pound away, but the Blackhawks pounded but don't wilt, and win 5-3.On The Blackhawks: Fox Chicago:
http://bit.ly/MWRC2p
- Al

To the two bolded, the analytics community pays next to no attention to real time stats, most are negatively correlated with winning (i.e. hits and takeaways mean you don't have the puck, having the puck is what matters). The second, is randomness not used by people who don't believe in the numbers, rather the narrative? Sometimes the puck goes in, sometimes it doesn't. You've been around hockey a lot more than me, how many times has a player/coach said to you while you're interviewing them, we're getting the chances, its only a matter of time before they go in? Or "it seems like everything I/we shoot is going in right now"? I'm sure more times than you care to remember. Well for players that rectifies itself rather quickly, look at Sharp or Toews goal scoring history, they score in bunches or they don't score. Well, for a team the sample size is much bigger so the regression comes about more slowly. The Avalanche and Ducks are both lucky teams, they're not going to sustain the pace their playing at for 82.

Sens third period comeback in the Lou

And what of the waste stream? What happens to the stuff after it drips off the plane?
- Beaver-Warrior

Depends.

Some airports have designated Deice pads where the aircraft is sprayed while parked over a self contained drainage/recycling fluid re-capturing system. Other airports follow up deicing with vehicles that resemble a Zamboni that clean up residual fluid. Some of it evaporates. The portion that sticks to the airplane is designed to aerodynamically shed itself from the airframe at a speed of around 100 knots so that it can be cleaned from the runways.

Obviously there's no way of capturing all of it. The formulas change every winter, and they seem to be making the effort to make the fluids more eco-friendly. Some of them are now corn based products, and most of the dyes are vegetable based.

Sens third period comeback in the Lou
- rollpards19

Buck the Flues.

To the two bolded, the analytics community pays next to no attention to real time stats, most are negatively correlated with winning (i.e. hits and takeaways mean you don't have the puck, having the puck is what matters). The second, is randomness not used by people who don't believe in the numbers, rather the narrative? Sometimes the puck goes in, sometimes it doesn't. You've been around hockey a lot more than me, how many times has a player/coach said to you while you're interviewing them, we're getting the chances, its only a matter of time before they go in? Or "it seems like everything I/we shoot is going in right now"? I'm sure more times than you care to remember. Well for players that rectifies itself rather quickly, look at Sharp or Toews goal scoring history, they score in bunches or they don't score. Well, for a team the sample size is much bigger so the regression comes about more slowly. The Avalanche and Ducks are both lucky teams, they're not going to sustain the pace their playing at for 82.
- rollpards19

You may not use the stats I said as they are more subjective but many base opinions on them.

I understand what you are saying and wasn't disagreeing with the notion that there are streaks and sooner or later things will get more "normal".

But in hockey and sports in general "sooner or later" could be as stated sooner or later and it is difficult for me to bet or make a judgment in hockey based on regression alone.

Hockey and sports in general often have to do with streaks or one sided results.
The Ducks and AV's will likely not sustain for the entire season but their results for the entire season could be far above the norm for them and in general.

Kane is 1-9 in the shootout....I wrote the other day Q. should put him back in the 2 slot because he will heat up sooner than later.
My opinion, but that is easier to guess at than a team mired in a season long slump in a particular category or being exceptionally "hot" in a certain category.

The time frame for regression when having to do with a team, which includes more variables is different than saying Kane is going to succeed more than fail in the shootout for the rest of the season.

I agree the Av's have been "lucky" same with the Ducks with their home record but sometimes those trends hold true for an entire season.

That was pretty much the case with the Hawks all last year and through the playoffs.

The timeframe is always key, whether trading or watching sports as far as the use of analytics.

Many people go broke bucking a trend because it is very difficult to tell when it will end.

Again to be clear I wasn't disputing your theory on the Av's just the use of randomness being so different in hockey than other sports.

The Kings pound away, but the Blackhawks pounded but don't wilt, and win 5-3.On The Blackhawks: Fox Chicago:
http://bit.ly/MWRC2p

Drunks peeing on the plane. I think Ogi mentioned it once before and I think it was glycol.
- Elbows15

And I want to know how realistic the beginning of airplane was? Is there a guy like Jimmy Walker cleaning the windshield like at the old-fashioned gas stations? Does ogi give him a credit card for filling up? classic movie. Does he like movies about gladiators?

And I want to know how realistic the beginning of airplane was? Is there a guy like Jimmy Walker cleaning the windshield like at the old-fashioned gas stations? Does ogi give him a credit card for filling up? classic movie. Does he like movies about gladiators?
- tomcat24

Pretty much have to beg to get a windshield cleaned - which I do frequently.

No credit cards needed, just tell them how much I want, and it magically appears in the tanks.

The Gladiator part is pretty much universally true.

You may not use the stats I said as they are more subjective but many base opinions on them.

I understand what you are saying and wasn't disagreeing with the notion that there are streaks and sooner or later things will get more "normal".

But in hockey and sports in general "sooner or later" could be as stated sooner or later and it is difficult for me to bet or make a judgment in hockey based on regression alone.

Hockey and sports in general often have to do with streaks or one sided results.
The Ducks and AV's will likely not sustain for the entire season but their results for the entire season could be far above the norm for them and in general.

Kane is 1-9 in the shootout....I wrote the other day Q. should put him back in the 2 slot because he will heat up sooner than later.
My opinion, but that is easier to guess at than a team mired in a season long slump in a particular category or being exceptionally "hot" in a certain category.

The time frame for regression when having to do with a team, which includes more variables is different than saying Kane is going to succeed more than fail in the shootout for the rest of the season.

I agree the Av's have been "lucky" same with the Ducks with their home record but sometimes those trends hold true for an entire season.

That was pretty much the case with the Hawks all last year and through the playoffs.

The timeframe is always key, whether trading or watching sports as far as the use of analytics.

Many people go broke bucking a trend because it is very difficult to tell when it will end.

Again to be clear I wasn't disputing your theory on the Av's just the use of randomness being so different in hockey than other sports.

The Kings pound away, but the Blackhawks pounded but don't wilt, and win 5-3.On The Blackhawks: Fox Chicago:
http://bit.ly/MWRC2p
- Al

Got ya, and I think we're on the same page. But as to the bolded, this is where the "dispute" (discussion more like) started. I don't think the Hawks were lucky, they didn't maintain a high PDO like the Avs or Ducks have. They had a pretty league average one. I strongly disagree that the Hawks had a lucky trend that extended throughout last year. There were plenty of teams that had both higher SH% and SV%, the Hawks simply beat everyone because they were better than everyone. Consistently winning, a streak, doesn't imply luck on its own. Dominant possession teams don't need to rely on luck like average one's do.
Plenty of people have gone broke following trends that had to regress at some point as well

Anyone watching the Blues? Phucking Karlsson

Pretty much have to beg to get a windshield cleaned - which I do frequently.

No credit cards needed, just tell them how much I want, and it magically appears in the tanks.

The Gladiator part is pretty much universally true.
- Ogilthorpe2

ever invite somebody to see the cockpit? clarence over

Anyone watching the Blues? Phucking Karlsson
- rollpards19

No I can't stand watching them win another shootout

Propylene Glycol mostly.

Deicing fluid is usually a heated mix of Glycol and water and is used to remove snow and ice accumulation. It's typically dyed pink or orange for identification purposes. It also has limited anti-icing properties that help prevent new accumulation.

Usually though, if it's actively precipitating, deicing is followed immediately by anti-icing which is not diluted with water and goes on cold. It's also thicker and more viscous than the deicing fluid, and is dyed green. The thicker, more clingy anti-icing fluid is what gives a plane the ability to taxi for extended time periods in active snow or sleet without having the flight controls become icy again.

Deice - Pink



Anti-ice - green



Quiz tomorrow.
- Ogilthorpe2

I should get a pass. I had it pretty from much one post on a hockey forum.