I think their problem is that they see their players in terms of where they were drafted. They see guys like Hall, RNH and Yakupov drafted first overall and think they should get that type of value for them. Or they see their own top 6 forwards and top 4 defenseman as legitimate top 6 and top 4 players on every team. A guy like Hemsky is a nice offensive player, but he's not some game changer. He's soft and offers no defensive capabilities. Why would people give up a lot for him unless the team was absolutely starved for offense.
- PhillySportsGuy

oh i agree. but that doesnt make it any less stupid.

if i bought a stock in enron before it hit the fan, do you think i could go back after and be like wellllll i paid X for it at the time. its surely worth X now.

or the inverse. hey, you guys signed matt read off of the street. hell, ill triple your investment. id gladly give you a second for him.

Hmm, well, I just managed to isolate Grossmann using the CF% of his teammates with and without him on the ice over a 50 game spread.

That's not an interpretation. It's a literal fact that when Grossmann is on the ice every player on the entire team, except for Hal Gill(who hasn't been on the ice with Grossmann for a shot attempt for or against) has a worse rating than when he's not on the ice with Grossmann.

Again. there's no way to spin that, or change it. It's a simple fact.
- Jsaquella

My theory is that the players on the ice with Grossmann become so overconfident that Nick will smother all forays into the defensive zone that they become lazy with their backchecking and cheat too much offensively waiting for a snappy tape to tape pass by Nick as they hang by the opposing blueline.

So naturally Grossmann's CF% is negatively affected.

and i respect that. i dont mind fact based arguments, or eyeball based opinion based arguments, so long as the are labeled as such. i take each with their own benefits and limitations. grossmann has been pretty bad lately. and regardless of statistics or not, my own opinion would be that very few people should be immune from a game here or there as a sit down. im not saying he should be banished to the pressbox, but if you wanted to give him a day off after a rough stretch, i dont think that should destroy him. hes an older, professional vet. if one night off after a rough 6 shatters him, then good riddance.
- stayinthefnnet

Yeah, I'm not at the point where I'm saying go trade him for a bag of pretzels and a roll of tape.

He's still got a role in the NHL and can be an effective player. The issue is, he hasn't been an effective player, especially of late.

My theory is that the players on the ice with Grossmann become so overconfident that Nick will smother all forays into the defensive zone that they become lazy with their backchecking and cheat too much offensively waiting for a snappy tape to tape pass by Nick as they hang by the opposing blueline.

So naturally Grossmann's CF% is negatively affected.
- 77rams

poop, you've cracked the code.

How has San Jose been playing lately? I don't follow them at all.

How has San Jose been playing lately? I don't follow them at all.
- funmaster18

Currently struggling a bit offensively, but coming off a win over Chicago

oh i agree. but that doesnt make it any less stupid.

if i bought a stock in enron before it hit the fan, do you think i could go back after and be like wellllll i paid X for it at the time. its surely worth X now.

or the inverse. hey, you guys signed matt read off of the street. hell, ill triple your investment. id gladly give you a second for him.
- stayinthefnnet

Exactly. That's why you should give us Maata for Laughton.

He does get a lot of starts in the D-zone. And that is a factor. But he doesn't have more D zone starts that guys like Couturier or Read, and their CF% and simple shot differential numbers are better without him.
- Jsaquella

Just thinking, and I might be wrong. Taking your example of Couturier and Read, Grossmann plays a lot on the PK along with the two of them and naturally there's a lot of shots against. Both of them play on the PP which Grossmann doesn't and obviously there'll be a lot of shots for.

My statement will obviously be incorrect if the CF% you were talking about is for 5 on 5 play.

Exactly. That's why you should give us Maata for Laughton.
- PhillySportsGuy

haha touche.

im sure glad he fell.

Yeah, I'm not at the point where I'm saying go trade him for a bag of pretzels and a roll of tape.

He's still got a role in the NHL and can be an effective player. The issue is, he hasn't been an effective player, especially of late.
- Jsaquella

totally on board with all of that.

My head would be spinning by now if I had to argue about one player for 6 hours.
- PhillySportsGuy

My heads spinning just from watching!

Just thinking, and I might be wrong. Taking your example of Couturier and Read, Grossmann plays a lot on the PK along with the two of them and naturally there's a lot of shots against. Both of them play on the PP which Grossmann doesn't and obviously there'll be a lot of shots for.

My statement will obviously be incorrect if the CF% you were talking about is for 5 on 5 play.
- flyerfan48

I'm looking at 5 on 5 play, because the PK stats would unfairly hurt Grossmann.

This was not an attempt at an agenda. It was simply an effort to quantify what impressions I got from watching games

I'm looking at 5 on 5 play, because the PK stats would unfairly hurt Grossmann.

This was not an attempt at an agenda. It was simply an effort to quantify what impressions I got from watching games
- Jsaquella

Gotcha.

ice storm tuesday into wed
more than a half inch of ice possible.
jesus

Currently struggling a bit offensively, but coming off a win over Chicago
- Jsaquella

Hmm hopefully were catching them at the right time

the metrics themselves may be imperfect, but there really is a lack of a better substitute in many cases, other than the eye test. which between two people of a different mind, wont be able to prove too much
- stayinthefnnet

I think the difference between the two is huge. Which is why Coaches look at game tape as the primary means for assessing how a team or individual players have played, after the fact. I think if there is a solid knowledge of defensive zone play, then there shouldn't be much disagreement.

Hmm hopefully were catching them at the right time
- funmaster18

This will be a lot like the Anaheim game - have to play perfectly to stand a chance. They lost to the Oilers, but Scrivens saved 59 shots and the Sharks had an additional 40+ shots go wide or get blocked.

Pretty much.

The numbers, in their current state, are far from perfect. But on the scale from 100% proof to I-just-pulled-something-out-of-my-ass, it's a lot closer to the former.

And you're 100% right about the 'eyeball' thing as well... not just how things can look different to different sets of eyeballs, but what we see is heavily influenced by personal biases, emotional states and preconceived ideas.

One scout can look at Hugh Jessiman and wonder how this kid isn't going to be an impact player, and another can look at him and say, um I'm taking Jeff Carter instead.
- Tomahawk

There's a huge difference between projecting players at a prospect level and how they will translate to the NHL. And analyzing simple defensive zone play.

I read Grossmann is wearing the "A" tonight.
- 77rams

Gonna be hard to do, what with him carrying his six Norris Trophies as well as the Flyers' defensive hopes and aspirations at the same time

and i respect that. i dont mind fact based arguments, or eyeball based opinion based arguments, so long as the are labeled as such. i take each with their own benefits and limitations. grossmann has been pretty bad lately. and regardless of statistics or not, my own opinion would be that very few people should be immune from a game here or there as a sit down. im not saying he should be banished to the pressbox, but if you wanted to give him a day off after a rough stretch, i dont think that should destroy him. hes an older, professional vet. if one night off after a rough 6 shatters him, then good riddance.
- stayinthefnnet

The question then becomes does scratching the player benefit the player and/or the team. In my opinion scratching Grossmann would not. And this is speculation on my part, but I don't think the Coaching staff would think it would either.

There's just too many variables involved, and the sport itself is just far too much of a team game for these stats to have the relevance that is placed on them by some.
- MJL

This!

Was just thinking how funny it would be if the Kings landed Vanek in a deal that sends Richie back east.

I've done that. I use stats to augment the argument I'm making, not to be the entire argument.

Otherwise I'd just be spouting opinions, rather than watching the games, looking at the situations and then reviewing the numbers to reconfirm what I felt I saw and give a deeper and more detailed comment....rather than simply give an opinion and use Bill's opinion as a justification for it.

So, there's not a vaccuum and it's not just a statistical argument, I also watch the games, which is the primary basis for my argument. If the stats didn't confirm what I saw, I'd be re-watching and re-evaluating the games.
- Jsaquella

The problem is that the stats don't state unequivocally that Grossmann has played poorly. That's my whole argument. And you're opinion on my opinion is just that and vice versa. And my opinion was given and formed long before Bill came on and posted that he agreed with me. So using that to try and discredit my opinion is just a straw man argument to deflect. We're not going to agree on the role of advanced stats and their relevance and accuracy at assessing an individual player. In my opinion advanced stats don't and cannot do what they are being used for in this case. If the primary basis for your argument is watching the actual play, let's evolve the conversation and look at some actual game play. I'm confident in what it will show.
Once we can move past the advanced stats argument, then I believe the reality will come out.

The question then becomes does scratching the player benefit the player and/or the team. In my opinion scratching Grossmann would not. And this is speculation on my part, but I don't think the Coaching staff would think it would either.
- MJL

if you truly think that grossmann, given his play lately (however you interpret it) gives you a better chance to win in the upcoming game, then no, dont bench him. but i do think that a one game benching can have positive results in certain situations. granted, it can also have negative ramifications in others, but i dont view a veteran, hard nosed, bottom pairing defenseman as someone who will emotionally fall apart.

Yep. I did all that. Again, they perform better when not on the ice with Grossmann statistically.
- Jsaquella

Doesn't mean that Grossmann has played poorly. There are many reasons why that would be the case. And therefore does not support the claim that Grossmann has played poorly all Season