The Flyers will beat the Sharks if...
- PhillySportsGuy

grossmann doesnt play, or if he plays and mounts joe thornton like an angry kodiak in heat....

seriously though, if they bring the effort they did against the ducks for a full game.

I read Grossmann is wearing the "A" tonight.

If Stamkos can't go for Team Canada
Who plays St Louis or Giroux

Pretty sure St Louis
- Winning

Somebody from TSN, might have been Lebrun, said that St Louis has a slight edge on Giroux if Stamkos can't go

grossmann doesnt play, or if he plays and mounts joe thornton like an angry kodiak in heat....

seriously though, if they bring the effort they did against the ducks for a full game.
- stayinthefnnet

Yeah, they worked their asses off against the Ducks. Got killed by stupid breakdowns and deflections.

im leery of relying too heavily on these stats in a vacuum because unless youre taking into account things such as starting position for the majority of his ice time. if grossman is being heavily relied on for defensive faceoffs, and really not getting many offensive zone starts, a stat like that doesnt appear as alarming.
- stayinthefnnet

There's just too many variables involved, and the sport itself is just far too much of a team game for these stats to have the relevance that is placed on them by some.

true. but there really arent many of those guys out there that are any good. i would love ott, but giving a first for him as a rental. no thanks. id gladly look at signing him in the offseason. im all ears for any potential guys that could fill that mold, and realistically be had.

a letang for eberle swap i still ultimately feel improves the team. no, maybe not in that grinding area, but its still an overall net gain, in both the short and long term in my mind.
- stayinthefnnet

I feel like Letang is worth more than Eberle though. If the Pens offered that to the Oilers, they would take it without blinking. And that's a team that doesn't ever want to trade anyone under 30 because they are about to breakout and become a hall of fame player.

There's just too many variables involved, and the sport itself is just far too much of a team game for these stats to have the relevance that is placed on them by some.
- MJL

the metrics themselves may be imperfect, but there really is a lack of a better substitute in many cases, other than the eye test. which between two people of a different mind, wont be able to prove too much

Somebody from TSN, might have been Lebrun, said that St Louis has a slight edge on Giroux if Stamkos can't go
- Jsaquella

That would make sense considering how well he's played, the connection to Yzerman and the age of St Louis (this being his last chance at an olympic run)

I feel like Letang is worth more than Eberle though. If the Pens offered that to the Oilers, they would take it without blinking. And that's a team that doesn't ever want to trade anyone under 30 because they are about to breakout and become a hall of fame player.
- PhillySportsGuy

ha. go post in on the oil board and see the response. its comical. in a purely objective sense, yeah letang may be worth more due to scarcity of the position, but his injuries havent been helping the matter.

Yeah, they worked their asses off against the Ducks. Got killed by stupid breakdowns and deflections.
- Jsaquella

Ugh. I know. THat was a winnable game because they played so well. Seemed like the Flyers had more deflections too. Ducks had some puck luck

im leery of relying too heavily on these stats in a vacuum because unless youre taking into account things such as starting position for the majority of his ice time. if grossman is being heavily relied on for defensive faceoffs, and really not getting many offensive zone starts, a stat like that doesnt appear as alarming.
- stayinthefnnet

He does get a lot of starts in the D-zone. And that is a factor. But he doesn't have more D zone starts that guys like Couturier or Read, and their CF% and simple shot differential numbers are better without him.

ha. go post in on the oil board and see the response. its comical. in a purely objective sense, yeah letang may be worth more due to scarcity of the position, but his injuries havent been helping the matter.
- stayinthefnnet

Ive never seen such a bad team with so much 'talent'

He does get a lot of starts in the D-zone. And that is a factor. But he doesn't have more D zone starts that guys like Couturier or Read, and their CF% and simple shot differential numbers are better without him.
- Jsaquella

you guys obviously have something much larger going on, but just my own personal evaluation of grossmann is that he is what he is. expecting more out of him will be a problem, but overall, he has been okay if you need a bottom pairing, stay at home type. that being said, just from watching games, he has been having a rough go over the last two weeks or so.

Ive never seen such a bad team with so much 'talent'
- PhillySportsGuy

good. honestly, (frank) a lot of them. a few on here are really cool, but trying to talk to the vast majority of their players is ridiculous. and then they become offended that you wouldnt consider hemsky and a second for your players a fantastic deal.

they will continue to suck, for a good while, unless outside talent is brought in. or they just eventually draft and develop a defenseman or three. which is fine should that be the route youd rather see the organization take. but some of it just borders on lunacy. and i realize all of this conversation on here has absolutely no relevancy or impact on the course of the real world, but they manage to gut so much of the fun out of it.

everything is untouchable. then how is it possible that a team full of untouchables can be so bad?

Hmm, well, I just managed to isolate Grossmann using the CF% of his teammates with and without him on the ice over a 50 game spread.

That's not an interpretation. It's a literal fact that when Grossmann is on the ice every player on the entire team, except for Hal Gill(who hasn't been on the ice with Grossmann for a shot attempt for or against) has a worse rating than when he's not on the ice with Grossmann.

Again. there's no way to spin that, or change it. It's a simple fact.

It's not blaming Grossmann alone, but he is the one constant in the models run. No other player on the roster has that same overall negative effect across the board. Not even Gill.

Is that all on Grossmann? Nope. Nobody is saying it is. But it is a troublesome trend, and if you are unable to recognize that in and of itself, you're arguing for the sake of arguing.
- Jsaquella

I'm not trying to change that or spin that. I'm simply saying that when those other players are on the ice, with Grossmann. That Grossmann is not the only player on the ice, and therefore cannot be singled out as the sole reason why. And you also have to look at the other side of it. Why the numbers are going up playing with other players. So therefore a possibility exists that the numbers go up because those players are 1) playing with better players who are better at driving possession such as Giroux. And 2) playing in better situations such as offensive zone starts in different game situations. It all has to be considered. And when these numbers are blindly offered and say see Grossmann is the problem. Well then that analysis falls way short, and takes the easy way out.
Now when you watch the games, and you take into consideration numerous factors. Such as the situations a player is faced with. A players skill set and what kind of player he is. Who he's playing with and what kind of players they are. And the effect that other plays have on the outcome of a shift, especially when dealing with defenseman. Then you've done a complete and unbiased analysis. And of course there is always opinion involved in that, that provides some level of ambiguity. Depending on the read on what actually happened, and where breakdowns occurred and what is at fault. But when it's simply stated that 2.5 shoits against happen compared to only one shot for occurs when one player is on the ice. And that player fails the "eyeball" test. Well then that's a half assed analysis that is filled with holes.

Somebody from TSN, might have been Lebrun, said that St Louis has a slight edge on Giroux if Stamkos can't go
- Jsaquella

I thought I heard that G wasn't even on the short list anymore... maybe it was HNIC or Sportsnet, though.

you guys obviously have something much larger going on, but just my own personal evaluation of grossmann is that he is what he is. expecting more out of him will be a problem, but overall, he has been okay if you need a bottom pairing, stay at home type. that being said, just from watching games, he has been having a rough go over the last two weeks or so.
- stayinthefnnet

I agree for the most part. He's a limited third pair guy that brings physical play and be OK with the right partner and usage.

That said, I think he's been pretty bad for most of the season and downright dreadful for the month of January. He's definitely been better the last 3 games, and was really solid in both the Detroit & LA games.

Where my issue starts is that, for some, Grossmann is immune from being benched for poor play or that he's markedly better than Schenn, Gustafsson or Meszaros.

The whole divergence into Corsi-Land is born from that. Because I'm trying to provide some statistical data as to why Grossmann shouldn't be a sacred cow, rather than just blather about my opinion.

I thought I heard that G wasn't even on the short list anymore... maybe it was HNIC or Sportsnet, though.
- Tomahawk

Possible. I can't find the tweet, but it was in the last day or so, saying that St Louis has the inside track, slightly ahead of Giroux.

I feel like Letang is worth more than Eberle though. If the Pens offered that to the Oilers, they would take it without blinking. And that's a team that doesn't ever want to trade anyone under 30 because they are about to breakout and become a hall of fame player.
- PhillySportsGuy

the oilers suck why don't get it

He does get a lot of starts in the D-zone. And that is a factor. But he doesn't have more D zone starts that guys like Couturier or Read, and their CF% and simple shot differential numbers are better without him.
- Jsaquella

A complete analysis would look at who Read and Couturier have played with when not playing with Grossmann. Could it be that they're playing in those D zone starts with a better defense pair in Timonen and Coburn, then Grossmann and Striet are? And that is the cause of why the numbers are better in that situation? Versus they're worse because Grossmann has played poorly this year? This is where the analysis and context comes in.

good. honestly, (frank) a lot of them. a few on here are really cool, but trying to talk to the vast majority of their players is ridiculous. and then they become offended that you wouldnt consider hemsky and a second for your players a fantastic deal.

they will continue to suck, for a good while, unless outside talent is brought in. or they just eventually draft and develop a defenseman or three. which is fine should that be the route youd rather see the organization take. but some of it just borders on lunacy. and i realize all of this conversation on here has absolutely no relevancy or impact on the course of the real world, but they manage to gut so much of the fun out of it.

everything is untouchable. then how is it possible that a team full of untouchables can be so bad?
- stayinthefnnet

I think their problem is that they see their players in terms of where they were drafted. They see guys like Hall, RNH and Yakupov drafted first overall and think they should get that type of value for them. Or they see their own top 6 forwards and top 4 defenseman as legitimate top 6 and top 4 players on every team. A guy like Hemsky is a nice offensive player, but he's not some game changer. He's soft and offers no defensive capabilities. Why would people give up a lot for him unless the team was absolutely starved for offense.

the metrics themselves may be imperfect, but there really is a lack of a better substitute in many cases, other than the eye test. which between two people of a different mind, wont be able to prove too much
- stayinthefnnet

Pretty much.

The numbers, in their current state, are far from perfect. But on the scale from 100% proof to I-just-pulled-something-out-of-my-ass, it's a lot closer to the former.

And you're 100% right about the 'eyeball' thing as well... not just how things can look different to different sets of eyeballs, but what we see is heavily influenced by personal biases, emotional states and preconceived ideas.

One scout can look at Hugh Jessiman and wonder how this kid isn't going to be an impact player, and another can look at him and say, um I'm taking Jeff Carter instead.

I agree for the most part. He's a limited third pair guy that brings physical play and be OK with the right partner and usage.

That said, I think he's been pretty bad for most of the season and downright dreadful for the month of January. He's definitely been better the last 3 games, and was really solid in both the Detroit & LA games.

Where my issue starts is that, for some, Grossmann is immune from being benched for poor play or that he's markedly better than Schenn, Gustafsson or Meszaros.

The whole divergence into Corsi-Land is born from that. Because I'm trying to provide some statistical data as to why Grossmann shouldn't be a sacred cow, rather than just blather about my opinion.
- Jsaquella

and i respect that. i dont mind fact based arguments, or eyeball based opinion based arguments, so long as the are labeled as such. i take each with their own benefits and limitations. grossmann has been pretty bad lately. and regardless of statistics or not, my own opinion would be that very few people should be immune from a game here or there as a sit down. im not saying he should be banished to the pressbox, but if you wanted to give him a day off after a rough stretch, i dont think that should destroy him. hes an older, professional vet. if one night off after a rough 6 shatters him, then good riddance.

I'm not trying to change that or spin that. I'm simply saying that when those other players are on the ice, with Grossmann. That Grossmann is not the only player on the ice, and therefore cannot be singled out as the sole reason why. And you also have to look at the other side of it. Why the numbers are going up playing with other players. So therefore a possibility exists that the numbers go up because those players are 1) playing with better players who are better at driving possession such as Giroux. And 2) playing in better situations such as offensive zone starts in different game situations. It all has to be considered. And when these numbers are blindly offered and say see Grossmann is the problem. Well then that analysis falls way short, and takes the easy way out.
Now when you watch the games, and you take into consideration numerous factors. Such as the situations a player is faced with. A players skill set and what kind of player he is. Who he's playing with and what kind of players they are. And the effect that other plays have on the outcome of a shift, especially when dealing with defenseman. Then you've done a complete and unbiased analysis. And of course there is always opinion involved in that, that provides some level of ambiguity. Depending on the read on what actually happened, and where breakdowns occurred and what is at fault. But when it's simply stated that 2.5 shoits against happen compared to only one shot for occurs when one player is on the ice. And that player fails the "eyeball" test. Well then that's a half assed analysis that is filled with holes.
- MJL

I've done that. I use stats to augment the argument I'm making, not to be the entire argument.

Otherwise I'd just be spouting opinions, rather than watching the games, looking at the situations and then reviewing the numbers to reconfirm what I felt I saw and give a deeper and more detailed comment....rather than simply give an opinion and use Bill's opinion as a justification for it.

So, there's not a vaccuum and it's not just a statistical argument, I also watch the games, which is the primary basis for my argument. If the stats didn't confirm what I saw, I'd be re-watching and re-evaluating the games.

A complete analysis would look at who Read and Couturier have played with when not playing with Grossmann. Could it be that they're playing in those D zone starts with a better defense pair in Timonen and Coburn, then Grossmann and Striet are? And that is the cause of why the numbers are better in that situation? Versus they're worse because Grossmann has played poorly this year? This is where the analysis and context comes in.
- MJL

Yep. I did all that. Again, they perform better when not on the ice with Grossmann statistically.