True, but when a guy manages to score a lot of goals and sustains it over a significant period of time, it becomes a trend and that is where stats can be very useful.

In the very specific case we've discussed today, a team facing a shot attempt deficit of 2.5 to 1 when a specific player is on the ice over the course of 50+ games is a troublesome trend. The fact that when the rest of the team's possession metrics are worse with one specific player-across the board-then something is amiss.

These are numbers over a game or two, they have been built up over 50+ games.
- Jsaquella

Again, I just refuse to buy into all of these possession numbers. And that's just the way it is. I may be burying my head in the sand, but I never liked them in baseball, and I will never like them in hockey. And that's just that.

You have not provided any data at all. You have provided opinion. I have linked to stats. You have said that Bill agrees with you.

The stats offered measure possession of the puck, which is important if you want to win hockey games. Those stats are not opinion. They have been compiled using NHL provided game statistics. They show that when Grossmann is on the ice, the Flyers face a shot attempt differential of 2.5 to 1 over 50 games.

They do not tell the whole story, and nobody has said they do. However, they are data. You provide nothing except your opinion. Go ahead and try to spin the stat that shows Grossmann's presence on the ice negatively affecting every single other member of the team's possession numbers.

That's the difference. You completely fail to provide some sort of data to support your opinion
- Jsaquella

We both only have the same data to work with that is available. I can link the same stats and interpret them as I see them. The interpretation is not fact, only opinion. The data does not definitively point out that Grossmann is reason why the numbers are as they are. That's the entire point and whole fallacy behind advanced stats. When Grossmann is on the ice, the Flyers face a shot attempt differential of 2.5 to 1 over 50 games. If Grossmann was the only player on the ice, then you can attribute that data to Grossmann and only Grossmann. That is the entire point, and why the data is flawed. They do not and cannot isolate one player and attribute a possession number to one player. It's simply not possible.
So what it comes down to when looking at any data, is an interpretation of that data. And that is all opinion. And any claim to it being different is simply not reality.

Regardless of team rooting interest, fanbases tend to think the grass is greener on the other side with other teams' defensemen-- until they actually acquire one of those players and see that they most have at least one significant weakness in their game (which is why they are not ideal top-pairing guys). The real "true" 1s and 2s are very, very, very hard to acquire.
- bmeltzer

While true, Diaz would probably be at least a 6/7 on this team. For a player like Weise, not a bad pick up.

How does Homer not capitalize there? Would love to add Diaz
- mochoson

Who knows if the Flyers were interested...he's similar to Gustafsson, but at that price, why not roll the dice?

Again, I just refuse to buy into all of these possession numbers. And that's just the way it is. I may be burying my head in the sand, but I never liked them in baseball, and I will never like them in hockey. And that's just that.
- jmatchett383

They need a guy with a couple of stop-watches timing real puck-possession times... until that day arrives, we're stuck with settling for the very strong correlation between shot events for and winning.

True, but when a guy manages to score a lot of goals and sustains it over a significant period of time, it becomes a trend and that is where stats can be very useful.

In the very specific case we've discussed today, a team facing a shot attempt deficit of 2.5 to 1 when a specific player is on the ice over the course of 50+ games is a troublesome trend. The fact that when the rest of the team's possession metrics are worse with one specific player-across the board-then something is amiss.

These are numbers over a game or two, they have been built up over 50+ games.
- Jsaquella

Also, let's take a look at, say, Chris Therien. While in Philadelphia, he played almost exclusively with Eric Desjardins. When he had the puck, if a forward was not open, he's give it to Desjardins who would start the rush. He was an average defenseman who just meshed well with an All Star defenseman. I would guess (no data) that his numbers look fantastic as playing with a guy like Desjardins will make everyone's numbers better. It doesn't mean that Therien was anything more than an average defenseman, although the advanced stats would most likely say the opposite.

Who knows if the Flyers were interested...he's similar to Gustafsson, but at that price, why not roll the dice?
- Jsaquella

Especially for a righty.

...anyway, I'm pretty stoked for the game tonight. I'd love to see them build off of the LA game. There is plenty to improve on from that game, but I'm hoping the confidence carries over and they can steal a couple of points from the sharks.

Would you guys do Hainsey and Pitkanen for Gustefsson. Both UFA, but gets your foot in the door to negotiate with Pitkanen wayyyy before UFA.
- youarewrong

Zero interest in Pitkänen... Has become very injury prone and lacks smarts. No thank you. If the Flyers only could have put Lasse Kukkonen's will and desire into hometown friend Pitkänen's physical skills they'd have had themselves their franchise defenseman instead of a Mini-Me version of Nick Grossmann and, well, Joni.

...anyway, I'm pretty stoked for the game tonight. I'd love to see them build off of the LA game. There is plenty to improve on from that game, but I'm hoping the confidence carries over and they can steal a couple of points from the sharks.
- funmaster18

Shame Hartnell cut his hair, as he and Burns could have had a hair off.

Zero interest in Pitkänen... Has become very injury prone and lacks smarts. No thank you. If the Flyers only could have put Lasse Kukkonen's will and desire into hometown friend Pitkänen's physical skills they'd have had themselves their franchise defenseman instead of a Mini-Me version of Nick Grossmann and, well, Joni.
- bmeltzer

Isn't Pitkanens injury a career threatening one?

Zero interest in Pitkänen... Has become very injury prone and lacks smarts. No thank you. If the Flyers only could have put Lasse Kukkonen's will and desire into hometown friend Pitkänen's physical skills they'd have had themselves their franchise defenseman instead of a Mini-Me version of Nick Grossmann and, well, Joni.
- bmeltzer

Poor Kukkonen. Andy Sutton ruined that man's game, or at least the game that he had.

Shame Hartnell cut his hair, as he and Burns could have had a hair off.
- jmatchett383

I guess we will have to settle for just a hockey game.

We both only have the same data to work with that is available. I can link the same stats and interpret them as I see them. The interpretation is not fact, only opinion. The data does not definitively point out that Grossmann is reason why the numbers are as they are. That's the entire point and whole fallacy behind advanced stats. When Grossmann is on the ice, the Flyers face a shot attempt differential of 2.5 to 1 over 50 games. If Grossmann was the only player on the ice, then you can attribute that data to Grossmann and only Grossmann. That is the entire point, and why the data is flawed. They do not and cannot isolate one player and attribute a possession number to one player. It's simply not possible.
So what it comes down to when looking at any data, is an interpretation of that data. And that is all opinion. And any claim to it being different is simply not reality.
- MJL

There's nothing to interpret.

The Flyers have a shot attempt deficit of 2.5 to 1 against when Grossmann is on the ice. There's no interpretation on that, it's worse than anyone on the team. Again, not an interpretation.

Also, when every other player on the team has worse possession number with Grossmann than without, it's not an interpretation. It's simply a fact that the other team is getting more shots and possessing the puck more than the Flyers when Grossmann is on the ice.

That's it. Zero interpretation. It's looking at a number and seeing the trend. Black and white.

Shame Hartnell cut his hair, as he and Burns could have had a hair off.
- jmatchett383

Look on the guy's face in the back is priceless:

Zero interest in Pitkänen... Has become very injury prone and lacks smarts. No thank you. If the Flyers only could have put Lasse Kukkonen's will and desire into hometown friend Pitkänen's physical skills they'd have had themselves their franchise defenseman instead of a Mini-Me version of Nick Grossmann and, well, Joni.
- bmeltzer

Bill, careful with your blog Wednesday. A line has been drawn in the sand

Zero interest in Pitkänen... Has become very injury prone and lacks smarts. No thank you. If the Flyers only could have put Lasse Kukkonen's will and desire into hometown friend Pitkänen's physical skills they'd have had themselves their franchise defenseman instead of a Mini-Me version of Nick Grossmann and, well, Joni.
- bmeltzer

I just dont see a plethoria of options.

Bill,
What is your opinion of Alexander Edler? He has been in the rumor mill. Do you think he would help the Flyers enough to justified the price he would command?

Bill, careful with your blog Wednesday. A line has been drawn in the sand
- funmaster18

This has gotten ridiculous.

I just dont see a plethoria of options.
- youarewrong

Our current mix is better now than if pitkanen was a part of it.

Look on the guy's face in the back is priceless:

- Tomahawk

Why the hell do they have masks on. Did he not wash his hair for years or something?

Bill,
What is your opinion of Alexander Edler? He has been in the rumor mill. Do you think he would help the Flyers enough to justified the price he would command?
- psuhockey

What do you think that price is?

Also, let's take a look at, say, Chris Therien. While in Philadelphia, he played almost exclusively with Eric Desjardins. When he had the puck, if a forward was not open, he's give it to Desjardins who would start the rush. He was an average defenseman who just meshed well with an All Star defenseman. I would guess (no data) that his numbers look fantastic as playing with a guy like Desjardins will make everyone's numbers better. It doesn't mean that Therien was anything more than an average defenseman, although the advanced stats would most likely say the opposite.
- jmatchett383

That is why stats like WOWY exist. That simply measures what a player does when on the ice with a particular player and when on the ice without a particular player.

That's how I can look at what the team's Corsi & Fenwick scores are with Grossmann on the ice and when he's not on the ice and see that they're worse with him.

Other factors come into play, too, like score differential and situation play.

Why the hell do they have masks on. Did he not wash his hair for years or something?
- youarewrong

There were rumors of large colonies of previously unknown organisms that had taken up residence in his hair...can't be too careful.

Funny how all the naysayers in the main Diaz trade thread on HB are saying, he was soft, worthless, not great on the breakout first pass. Is our D that bad that he looks good or are they just female dogging about it ??