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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Flyers Blank Kings, Phantoms Win at WFC
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landros 2
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Centre of universe
Joined: 02.07.2007

Feb 2 @ 12:42 PM ET
Honestly, outside of when he was injured, there's no good reason why Gustafsson hasn't been in the line-up.

Having a guy that can actually skate the puck out of his own end is sorely missing.

- Jsaquella


I wondered if there was something else ? Ie attitude.....I mean it wasn't exactly the 77 Canadiens blue line he was trying to crack!!!! He has played very well since getting back in.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Feb 2 @ 12:43 PM ET
I wondered if there was something else ? Ie attitude.....I mean it wasn't exactly the 77 Canadiens blue line he was trying to crack!!!! He has played very well since getting back in.
- landros 2


He's small and has struggles in his own end. I just feel his skill set is so badly needed, that his "sins" should be graded on a curve.
landros 2
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Centre of universe
Joined: 02.07.2007

Feb 2 @ 12:46 PM ET
He's small and has struggles in his own end. I just feel his skill set is so badly needed, that his "sins" should be graded on a curve.
- Jsaquella


That could be said for all of them this year...at least there's a chance he gets better....we already know what Streit is...Schenn....Coburn....ect. Hopefully they let him get comfortable for a while and feed him the minutes....it sure as heck can't hurt.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Feb 2 @ 12:46 PM ET
Trading Laughton for a 23 year old AHL Dman should be a last resort. See if Phoenix want Downie first.

Grossmann is the worst defensemen on the team apart from Gill at playing the puck and getting it out of the zone. That is why his stats are so bad this year.

http://www.broadstreethoc...smann-analysis-bad-flyers

- Feanor


That's part of it. He's really subpar with the puck. He has more turnovers than anyone besides Coburn and doesn't handle the puck anywhere near as much as Coburn does.

Part of that is usage, too, but Grossmann makes a lot of unforced puck errors and bad passes.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Feb 2 @ 12:47 PM ET
That could be said for all of them this year...at least there's a chance he gets better....we already know what Streit is...Schenn....Coburn....ect. Hopefully they let him get comfortable for a while and feed him the minutes....it sure as heck can't hurt.

- landros 2


I just feel his mobility and puck skills are vital.
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Feb 2 @ 12:51 PM ET
I personally think Corsi and Fenwick is badly misused and doesn't come close to indicating anything close to that concerning Grossmann. It just simply can't eliminate all the variables involved, and isolate many, many other factors away from the situation to put it on Grossmann. Hockey is just too much of a team game.
I think there is definitely room for legitimate criticism towards Grossmann for some of his recent play. But overall, both for this Season and his tenure with the Flyers, he's been a solid 2nd pair defensive defenseman.
I have extensively reviewed both all of the goals that Grossmann that has been on the ice for, as well as all of the highlight videos that are available such as Save highlights on scoring chances against the Flyers, with Grossmann available. And it's not very often where you come away saying that Grossmann screwed up. He's not perfect, and there certainly are plays on both goals and scoring chances where Grossmann is culpable. But that should be expected in terms of both what level of defenseman, Grossmann is, and how the Flyers have played as a team overall. And the situations that Grossmann is placed in.
I also think that the situation Grossmann has played in, has led to some frustration. I think he sometimes tries to play outside of himself to make up for things, and he get's himself in trouble. When he simplifies his game, and plays within himself, he's a solid and effective defensive defensman. Grossmann has repeatedly been hung out to dry in the defensive zone all season long. More then any other player on this team with the exception of the goaltenders on this team. Bottom line, in my view. There's been a lot of criticism weighed towards Grossmann that is both unfair, and innacurate.

- MJL


Well said, and actually very close to something I plan to write for Wednesday's blog.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Feb 2 @ 12:52 PM ET
All Corsi and Fenwick do is measure shots taken by a team when a player is on the ice vs how many the opposing team takes.

It's not calculus or magic. It's simply taking the number of shot attempts and coming up with a difference to measure possession. That's it. No voodoo. It takes an established set of stats (i.e shots, shot attempts, missed shots and blocked shots) and determines an easy number to show puck possession.


- Jsaquella


I'm well aware of what Corsi and Fenwick is. What Corsi and Fenwick can't do, and doesn't do, is assign why that is, and who's fault it is, and who is responsible. That is where it is being misused to place blame on Grossmann.



And yes, the Flyers problems are not just the defensemen alone. Far too often they have issues because the Forwards don't play a good 200 foot game and really don't provide enough help to the defensemen in transition.

However, the fact is, over 50+ games, the Flyers are facing a 3-1 shot attempt deficit when Grossmann is on the ice, and universally his teammates have worse possession stats when playing with Grossmann.


- Jsaquella


The fact is also that Grossmann is not the only player on the ice. This is the fatal flaw of Corsi and Fenwick. And many other advanced stats. Hockey is just far too much of a team game, with many, many variables that Corsi and Fenwick can't possibly account for to come to any definitive conclusion on what player is at fault or culpable.



Yes, Grossmann is misused by the coaches. Part of that is because of the make up of the roster. But he doesn't play against the toughest competition-that's Timonen & Coburn.

Also, I don't see a guy playing outside his limits or trying to do too much as a good thing. In reality it's a symptom of his troubles. I'm not saying there's not a place for him, but he's struggled badly, especially over the last month or so.

- Jsaquella


I don't think the Coaches are misusing him, I think they are limited in the choices the have. Also the QOC stats of the advanced statistics community are also extremely, extremely suspect. So they need to be taken with a grain of salt. And even if Grossmann doesn't play against the toughest of competition, that doesn't mean that he hasn't played against quality competition, or in difficult circumstances. Because he most certainly has. I don't think playing outside of his limits is a symptom of his troubles, but more a symptom of the situation he's been asked to play in. I think he most certainly has had some subpar play lately, and he deserves criticism for that. But overall this Season, and in his Flyers career. He's been a solid defensive defenseman.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Feb 2 @ 12:57 PM ET
Trading Laughton for a 23 year old AHL Dman should be a last resort. See if Phoenix want Downie first.

Grossmann is the worst defensemen on the team apart from Gill at playing the puck and getting it out of the zone. That is why his stats are so bad this year.

http://www.broadstreethoc...smann-analysis-bad-flyers

- Feanor


The conclusions that the author draws there are really poor. In my opinion, that's a poorly written article.
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Feb 2 @ 1:03 PM ET
When a defenseman plays Grossmann's specific role -- main responsibilities being pins along the boards, block a lot of shots,etc -- he's going to need help around him not to have bad Corsi/Fenwick numbers.

It doesn't mean that he's not valuable to the team or doesn't do his job well.

Guys like Brad Marsh and Craig Ludwig would have been awful Corsi Dmen, too (if the stats were kept in those days) and yet they had lots of staying power in the NHL because they did the same sorts of things as Grossmann.

MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Feb 2 @ 1:06 PM ET
When a defenseman plays Grossmann's specific role -- main responsibilities being pins along the boards, block a lot of shots,etc -- he's going to need help around him not to have bad Corsi/Fenwick numbers.

It doesn't mean that he's not valuable to the team or doesn't do his job well.

Guys like Brad Marsh and Craig Ludwig would have been awful Corsi Dmen, too (if the stats were kept in those days) and yet they had lots of staying power in the NHL because they did the same sorts of things as Grossmann.

- bmeltzer


That's the main problem with corsi/fenwick numbers. They don't and can't isolate the player from the other variables on the ice, to give a true reflection of the player.
PhillySportsGuy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: any donut with a hole in the middle can get (frank)ed right in its hole, NJ
Joined: 04.08.2012

Feb 2 @ 1:17 PM ET
When a defenseman plays Grossmann's specific role -- main responsibilities being pins along the boards, block a lot of shots,etc -- he's going to need help around him not to have bad Corsi/Fenwick numbers.

It doesn't mean that he's not valuable to the team or doesn't do his job well.

Guys like Brad Marsh and Craig Ludwig would have been awful Corsi Dmen, too (if the stats were kept in those days) and yet they had lots of staying power in the NHL because they did the same sorts of things as Grossmann.

- bmeltzer


Like a good offensive lineman, people only notice him when something bad happens. He's been a frustrating player to watch lately but I feel he's earned the right to work himself out of this rut. He's been fairly solid over the last few games. Flyers defense has played much better as a whole over the last few games. Has a lot to do with the forwards being responsible
77rams
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: There's a kind of freedom in being completely screwed...
Joined: 09.12.2006

Feb 2 @ 1:21 PM ET
When a defenseman plays Grossmann's specific role -- main responsibilities being pins along the boards, block a lot of shots,etc -- he's going to need help around him not to have bad Corsi/Fenwick numbers.

It doesn't mean that he's not valuable to the team or doesn't do his job well.

Guys like Brad Marsh and Craig Ludwig would have been awful Corsi Dmen, too (if the stats were kept in those days) and yet they had lots of staying power in the NHL because they did the same sorts of things as Grossmann.

- bmeltzer


Yep.

I wonder what Jason Smith's or Ken Daneyko's scores would've been? Maybe even Derian Hatcher's during his time here?

I'm sure the Corsi/Fenwick serves as a good tool to determine if a player is showing some tendencies that need to be examined, but I'd be hesitant to allow it to be the be-all-end-all of whether a d-man is performing well.

I would want to know why he's scoring poorly in these ratings and whether these numbers that the formula crunches out accurately incorporate the role that he has been asked fill instead of just deciding out of hand that he was negatively affecting the team.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Feb 2 @ 1:23 PM ET
I'm well aware of what Corsi and Fenwick is. What Corsi and Fenwick can't do, and doesn't do, is assign why that is, and who's fault it is, and who is responsible. That is where it is being misused to place blame on Grossmann.



The fact is also that Grossmann is not the only player on the ice. This is the fatal flaw of Corsi and Fenwick. And many other advanced stats. Hockey is just far too much of a team game, with many, many variables that Corsi and Fenwick can't possibly account for to come to any definitive conclusion on what player is at fault or culpable.




I don't think the Coaches are misusing him, I think they are limited in the choices the have. Also the QOC stats of the advanced statistics community are also extremely, extremely suspect. So they need to be taken with a grain of salt. And even if Grossmann doesn't play against the toughest of competition, that doesn't mean that he hasn't played against quality competition, or in difficult circumstances. Because he most certainly has. I don't think playing outside of his limits is a symptom of his troubles, but more a symptom of the situation he's been asked to play in. I think he most certainly has had some subpar play lately, and he deserves criticism for that. But overall this Season, and in his Flyers career. He's been a solid defensive defenseman.

- MJL


When every other player on the entire roster has worse numbers with Grossmann, I think it's fair to use the numbers as a factor in rating him.

Nobody's saying Grossmann hasn't faced quality competition. He has, and he plays tough minutes.

Unfortunately, IMO, he's also badly failed the eyeball test. There's been numerous times where he's blown coverage or been beaten and it's led to a goal. Numerous times he's mde an unforced error with the puck and made a bad turnover or unnecessary icing.

And yes, stay at home defensemen do tend to get unfairly judged by possession metrics. No question. But Grossmann hasn't played well fr most of the year, either using statistical analysis or by simply watching. Disagree all you want, when you base it on that, it's all opinion anyhow.

He still has a place, but it's as a 5th/6th physical guy, playing a limited role and playing with a mobile partner who is capable in his own end.
landros 2
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Centre of universe
Joined: 02.07.2007

Feb 2 @ 1:25 PM ET
That's the main problem with corsi/fenwick numbers. They don't and can't isolate the player from the other variables on the ice, to give a true reflection of the player.
- MJL


Same can be said for +\-.....
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Feb 2 @ 1:28 PM ET
Yep.

I wonder what Jason Smith's or Ken Daneyko's scores would've been? Maybe even Derian Hatcher's during his time here?

I'm sure the Corsi/Fenwick serves as a good tool to determine if a player is showing some tendencies that need to be examined, but I'd be hesitant to allow it to be the be-all-end-all of whether a d-man is performing well.

I would want to know why he's scoring poorly in these ratings and whether these numbers that the formula crunches out accurately incorporate the role that he has been asked fill instead of just deciding out of hand that he was negatively affecting the team.

- 77rams



The best part is, nobody is using Corsi or Fenwick as the sole determining factor in rating his play.

I mention it because, quite honestly, the simple fact that not only does he have the worst numbers on the team, everyone on the team has worse numbers when playing with Grossmann.

That's not just using one stat to rip a player, it's an across the board situation.

I also don;t think Grossmann has passed the eyeball test, either.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Feb 2 @ 1:30 PM ET
When every other player on the entire roster has worse numbers with Grossmann, I think it's fair to use the numbers as a factor in rating him.


- Jsaquella


The problem is that doesn't look at why the numbers are better with other players. It just blindly draws a conclusion that is not taking into account why the numbers are better. For example, Streit normally plays with Grossmann. But if his numbers are better when he's not playing with Grossmann, why is that? Look in that direction and then maybe a more accurate detrmination can be made. Corsi and Fenwick fails to do that on it's own.



Nobody's saying Grossmann hasn't faced quality competition. He has, and he plays tough minutes.

Unfortunately, IMO, he's also badly failed the eyeball test. There's been numerous times where he's blown coverage or been beaten and it's led to a goal. Numerous times he's mde an unforced error with the puck and made a bad turnover or unnecessary icing.


And yes, stay at home defensemen do tend to get unfairly judged by possession metrics. No question. But Grossmann hasn't played well fr most of the year, either using statistical analysis or by simply watching. Disagree all you want, when you base it on that, it's all opinion anyhow.

He still has a place, but it's as a 5th/6th physical guy, playing a limited role and playing with a mobile partner who is capable in his own end.

- Jsaquella





Well we disagree there. Like I said, I watched Grossmann extensively, and have reviewed his play as much as possible with the video that is available. With the situations that he's played in, he easily passes the eyeball test, in my view. And I'd be willing to discuss any specific play you want. And if we do that for a large chunk of Grossmann's play on the ice, and think the outcome will become clear.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Feb 2 @ 1:31 PM ET
Same can be said for +\-.....

- landros 2


Absolutely. And that's a classic example of how a stat is misused. +/- doesn't determine if a player is a good offensive player or a bad one. It simply states that a player, in the situations he plays in, and how he's used, whether he is on the ice for more goals for or against, in a season.
-davies-
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: A medical emergency involving you.
Joined: 08.05.2013

Feb 2 @ 1:34 PM ET


annnnnd we're off!
landros 2
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Centre of universe
Joined: 02.07.2007

Feb 2 @ 1:37 PM ET
The best part is, nobody is using Corsi or Fenwick as the sole determining factor in rating his play.

I mention it because, quite honestly, the simple fact that not only does he have the worst numbers on the team, everyone on the team has worse numbers when playing with Grossmann.

That's not just using one stat to rip a player, it's an across the board situation.

I also don;t think Grossmann has passed the eyeball test, either.

- Jsaquella



Although I think Grossmann has had his good moments earlier in the year you are correct with " eyeball" test....post Xmas, he has struggled in his own end....he struggles to make the short outlet pass....he panics when forced...with all the stats in the world, if a player struggles...he loses confidence...90 % of this game is between the ears......
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Feb 2 @ 1:41 PM ET
annnnnd we're off!
- -davies-


Nope. I'm done.

I've stated my case, used both analytical and anecdotal information and it's been rejected. Some people just like to argue, I'm not going to waste my time. I just wish he was playing better, regardless of numbers, and want him to play better as long as he's on the team I root for.

-davies-
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: A medical emergency involving you.
Joined: 08.05.2013

Feb 2 @ 1:43 PM ET
Nope. I'm done.

I've stated my case, used both analytical and anecdotal information and it's been rejected. Some people just like to argue, I'm not going to waste my time. I just wish he was playing better, regardless of numbers, and want him to play better as long as he's on the team I root for.

- Jsaquella



yeah it's too nice outside to stay here and argue
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Feb 2 @ 1:45 PM ET
Phillip Seymour Hoffman died. Damnit. He was fantastic. RIP, Brandt.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Feb 2 @ 1:45 PM ET
yeah it's too nice outside to stay here and argue
- -davies-


Well, to be fair, I'm watching the Capitals & Red Wings on TV, but...
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Feb 2 @ 1:46 PM ET
Nope. I'm done.

I've stated my case, used both analytical and anecdotal information and it's been rejected. Some people just like to argue, I'm not going to waste my time. I just wish he was playing better, regardless of numbers, and want him to play better as long as he's on the team I root for.

- Jsaquella


It's not about just arguing, it's about how I view the facts of the situation and how certain numbers are being badly misused to criticize Grossmann. It's simply a discussion where I'm offering an opinion. And it seems as though Bill Meltzer agrees with my stance. That in itself doesn't make me wrong or right, but it surely does make my view valid. I think that Grossmann has been unfairly criticized a lot in my time away from the board. And I'm going to stand up and voice my opinion when the subject comes up. No more no less.
In my view, the reality is that if you want the results from Grossmann to be much improved in the long term, one of two things have to happen. Drastically change the situations that the Flyers as a team are faced with on a game to game basis. Or get a much better defenseman in that spot, rather then having a player of Grossmann's caliber and skill set in that spot, and those specific situations.
And it's possible that both need to happen for the Flyers to move forward with the evolution of their team.
Marc D
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: best smile, 14 without fake tees
Joined: 03.28.2008

Feb 2 @ 1:48 PM ET
yeah it's too nice outside to stay here and argue
- -davies-

Good weather back there?
Hmm that's a change.

By Corsi the Flyers lost the game in a blow out yesterday.
Good thing they actually won.
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