I think everyone needs a Pronger.
- JAKEw1234

Yeah, I'm pretty sure if he was healthy, younger and an available free agent, all 30 GMs would likely be interested

That's why I expect at least 2 and maybe as many as 4 teams to relocate during the next decade. Though Bettman will never publicly admit it, the league already knows that there are some locales that are just never going to develop the fanbase needed to grow their teams successfully.
- BiggE

That's what needs to happen -- the math I saw said that if you're not able to sell a rock-solid 15,500 tickets a night, you probably shouldn't have an NHL franchise.

That's what needs to happen -- the math I saw said that if you're not able to sell a rock-solid 15,500 tickets a night, you probably shouldn't have an NHL franchise.
- AllInForFlyers

Correct

Here are some cities/metro areas that I think could support a franchise:

Seattle
Quebec
Western Ontario

And some long shot possibilities

Milwaukee (though the Black Hawks would go nuts!)
Houston (The Aeros in the old WHA were extremely popular and would be a good rival for Dallas)
Oklahoma City
Portland

Correct

Here are some cities/metro areas that I think could support a franchise:

Seattle
Quebec
Western Ontario

And some long shot possibilities

Milwaukee (though the Black Hawks would go nuts!)
Houston (The Aeros in the old WHA were extremely popular and would be a good rival for Dallas)
Oklahoma City
Portland
- BiggE

What do you think of Las Vegas?

Correct

Here are some cities/metro areas that I think could support a franchise:

Seattle
Quebec
Western Ontario

And some long shot possibilities

Milwaukee (though the Black Hawks would go nuts!)
Houston (The Aeros in the old WHA were extremely popular and would be a good rival for Dallas)
Oklahoma City
Portland
- BiggE

Portland isn't a long shot. A group from there came very close to buying the Yotes last season before the stadium contract miraculously passed.

No, I'm not saying that the NHL needs outdoor games for overall revenue.

When I say that the NHL is a gate-driven league, I'm saying that, for any given game, all you need is to make sure your franchises are selling as many tickets as possible for the maximum amount of ticket pricing the fans will pay.

The NHL's problem has never been its television contract. The NHL's problem has always been that certain markets don't sell enough tickets, which means the stronger franchises have to constantly subsidize the operations of the weaker markets.
- AllInForFlyers

The NHL absolutely had TV revenue problems not that long ago.

The dark years (1976–1989)

For 17 years after the 1975 Finals, there would be no national over-the-air network coverage of the NHL in the United States (with the exception of CBS' coverage of Game 2 of the 1979 Challenge Cup and Game 6 of the 1980 Stanley Cup Finals and NBC's coverage of the NHL All-Star Game beginning in 1990) and only spotty coverage on regional networks. This was due to the fact that no network was willing to commit to a large number of games, in turn, providing low ratings for NHL games. ABC would eventually resume broadcasting regular NHL games (on a time buy basis through ESPN) for the 1992–93 season (and continuing through the 1993–94 season before Fox took over for the next five seasons).

...

From 1990 through 1994, NBC only televised the All Star Game.

...

Unlike previous network television deals with the NHL (like Fox, who had the rights from 1994–1999 and ABC, who had the rights from 1999–2004), NBC paid no upfront rights fee, instead splitting advertising revenue with the league after meeting its own production and distribution costs. On the other hand, the league avoided the arrangement some minor sports leagues have, where they pay networks for broadcast time and produce their own telecasts, but keep any advertising revenue.

...

On May 19, 2007, during the Stanley Cup playoffs, NBC angered many fans and journalists when it pre-empted coverage of the overtime period of the tied Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Ottawa Senators and Buffalo Sabres, instead going directly to pre-race coverage of the Preakness Stakes horse race.

etc.

http://en.wikipedia.org/w...s_.281976.E2.80.931989.29

The NHL and its profitability is quite interesting:

http://www.forbes.com/sit...and-who-doesnt-have-them/

What’s behind this market distortion? Subsidies, of course. American taxpayers are far more willing to prop up teams than their Canadian counterparts are. Both Florida clubs, the Panthers and the Lightning, enjoy sales-tax rebates of $2 million a year, money that goes back to the team rather than to the state. Hockey remains in Phoenix only because the city of Glendale, Ariz., Phoenix’s neighbor, where the Coyotes play, agreed to cover up to $50 million in team operating losses. Atlanta didn’t do that, compelling its ownership group, the Atlanta Spirit, to sell to True North.

“If American taxpayers were less interested in subsidizing NHL teams, there would be more teams in Canada,” says the Toronto Globe & Mail ‘s Tony Keller, who has studied the economics of the NHL. The NHL declined to comment.

http://www.forbes.com/sit...013/11/25/hockey-go-home/


Another interesting article:

Now, the way the NHL’s current CBA works, it’s not that difficult to come up with a general estimate of the profit levels of the 30 teams as a group.

In 2010-11, for example, the league made roughly $3.1-billion and, as per the CBA, 57 per cent – or $1.76-billion – of that went to the players.

That then leaves 43 per cent for the owners or about $1.33-billion ($44-million per team).

http://www.theglobeandmai...rd-growth/article4429817/

That's what needs to happen -- the math I saw said that if you're not able to sell a rock-solid 15,500 tickets a night, you probably shouldn't have an NHL franchise.
- AllInForFlyers

Even if you go with 15,000 that would leave the following teams in jeopardy. (Attendance figures from ESPN)

New Jersey 14,623
With Islanders moving to new digs in Brooklyn, I think the NHL needs to take a hard look at whether a 3rd franchise in the NY area located in Newark, NJ can be financially successful

Florida 14,603
Actually better than I thought and leads me to believe that if they can ice a competitive product they could be successful

Dallas 14,289
They've had ups and downs in the past, but Dallas fans won't support a loser which puts a lot a pressure on the franchise.

Columbus 13,754
Year in, year out, the team has pretty well sucked. However if they become a playoff team and average attendance does not increase by at least 2000 they have a serious problem

NY Islanders 13,461
The existing stadium is a dump and the team's not very good. Lets see what happens when they move to Brooklyn. Superstar player + new stadium usually equates to financial success. If anything, by moving to a site closer to north Jersey, I think they could poach fans from the Devils putting NJ in an even more precarious position.

and finally,

Phoenix 12,860
Win or lose, the Yotes don't draw. No matter what Bettman says publicly, I can't see this franchise staying in Arizona much longer. My guess is that they stay in the same division and move to Seattle within 2 more seasons.

Finally...

In the broadest sense (and with specific exclusions), HRR includes money from regular season and playoff gate receipts; preseason and special games (such as international exhibitions); national, international and national digital broadcasts; the NHL Network; all local cable, over-the-air, pay-per-view and satellite TV broadcasts; local radio; club internet sites; all club publications, merchandise and novelty items sold in and out of arenas; concessions; luxury boxes, suites and premium seats; fixed and temporary signage and arena sponsorships; rink board advertising; parking in club operated facilities; and some other stuff. Pretty much what you’d expect.

The current CBA excludes the following items from HRR: money teams make from waiver claims on players; money the NHL makes from moving teams or granting expansion franchises; revenues that teams receive from operating other clubs, such as AHL affiliates; fines collected from players and teams; any money teams make through financial transactions, such as loans, interest income or investments; and the sale or leasing of real estate. (Even though the Maple Leafs currently partner with developers to trade on the club’s identity in the Maple Leaf Square office, retail, entertainment and hotel complex adjacent to the Air Canada Centre — the kind of thing that the Canadiens are also planning next to the Bell Centre — whatever revenue they get from all of that is not included.)

http://nhl.si.com/2012/08...s-hockey-related-revenue/

What do you think of Las Vegas?
- AllInForFlyers

Las Vegas is a unique situation for 2 reasons.

1. The area has an extremely transient population which doesn't lead to developing a loyal fanbase

2. Does the NHL really want a franchise in the gambling capitol of north America. This could just be trouble waiting to happen.

On the flip side the marketing tie-ins and opportunities would be enormous so who can really say what the NHL would do on this one.

Portland isn't a long shot. A group from there came very close to buying the Yotes last season before the stadium contract miraculously passed.
- JAKEw1234

Good point, they or Seattle will certainly be getting a team soon

Except for this season when the cap was artificially lowered by agreement, the cap has risen, usually significantly, every year. I think it is a pretty safe assumption that the ceiling will be in that range by 2019
- BiggE

I think a lesson we should have all learned from the past 5-6 years is that when something is going good, it doesn't mean it will last forever, and if something sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

One more quick point on fanbases

This blog and the Islanders blog appeared at roughly the same time this morning. Our blog has over 250 comments, the Isles, less than 10. That pretty much sums it up.

I think a lesson we should have all learned from the past 5-6 years is that when something is going good, it doesn't mean it will last forever, and if something sounds too good to be true, it probably is.
- Tomahawk

Fair enough

The NHL absolutely had TV revenue problems not that long ago.



etc.

http://en.wikipedia.org/w...s_.281976.E2.80.931989.29
- wolfhounds

I'm not disagreeing with that, at all.

What I'm saying is that the NHL can have a robust salary cap with no television deal at all, or a poor one.

They already have -- the Flyers, Rags, etc...the big dogs were already at $60-$70 million salaries in 2004, with a weak TV deal from ESPN-ABC.

Not every team could do it, but Detroit, Toronto, etc., would routinely spend significant amounts more than their competitors -- and that's what led to the lockout. Smaller-market teams couldn't pull through enough revenue through their revenue streams and couldn't keep the Rangers from, say, signing Joe Sakic to an offer sheet (which they did, at one time.)

Fair enough
- BiggE

$90M+ cap-ceiling would assume yearly average revenues of $180M+ per team.... that's more than some NHL franchises are worth today.

I think a lesson we should have all learned from the past 5-6 years is that when something is going good, it doesn't mean it will last forever, and if something sounds too good to be true, it probably is.
- Tomahawk

Like BiggE said, that's a fair statement.

But what is also fair is that while every entity should plan for failure, it is irresponsible to allow fear of the future to paralyze your growth.

Either the fans will come, or they won't. Either the revenue streams are there, or they aren't.

But the NHL is doing fine right now, with some markets doing better than others.

That doesn't mean you allow the New Jerseys and Floridas of the world to cripple the league. That means you try to create more Detroits and Philadelphias.

$90M+ cap-ceiling would assume yearly average revenues of $180M+ per team.... that's more than some NHL franchises are worth today.
- Tomahawk

http://www.forbes.com/nhl-valuations/list/

30
Columbus Blue Jackets
$175m

http://www.forbes.com/nhl-valuations/list/

30
Columbus Blue Jackets
$175m
- wolfhounds

Exactly -- the last lockout was never about competitive balance or revenue.

It was always about the split -- 57-43 in favor of the players was unacceptable to the owners.

If there is another lockout, it will absolutely be about the cap floor and the weakest 10-12 teams in the league.

anyone been to the flyers wives carnival? im taking my son for the first time and he wanted a shoot on the goalie pass but it is sold out, nothing on ebay, is it possible to do this without a reservation?

One more quick point on fanbases

This blog and the Islanders blog appeared at roughly the same time this morning. Our blog has over 250 comments, the Isles, less than 10. That pretty much sums it up.
- BiggE

This site is dramatically skewed toward the Flyers fanbase in membership. Other teams have other places their fans gravitate to. Posts on this site isn't a good indicator. You might have a point if you could aggregate posts on all hockey fora.

anyone been to the flyers wives carnival? im taking my son for the first time and he wanted a shoot on the goalie pass but it is sold out, nothing on ebay, is it possible to do this without a reservation?
- mydoglicks

No.

It is possible, though not likely, someone in line might have a ticket for sale (kid changed mind, got shy, got sick).

Good point, they or Seattle will certainly be getting a team soon
- BiggE

Portland is a very underrated city in terms of coolness and sports fan base.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure if he was healthy, younger and an available free agent, all 30 GMs would likely be interested
- BiggE

dp

St. Louis is going off. 4 goals in a little more than a period of play.

He's got a bigger gripe than Giroux not making the Olympic team.