Anecdotal evidence vs. numbers.

The numbers say kunitz is a better player than kessel.
- rangerdanger94

What part of my arguement was anecdotal?

Crosby centers Kunitz ... Nope, it's a fact.
Bozak centers Kessel ... Nope, it's a fact (when Bozak is healthy).

Crosby is better than Bozak (the point I was implying) ... Nope, it's a fact.

So, where was my anecdotal evidence again?

I don't know what exactly is up with the other players (personally, I think Weber is overrated. Suter was the better player in NAS)

All I know is that, he plays huge minutes, against top competition, and yet, the Leafs still sore more with him on the ice than are scored against.

So, somehow, I find it hard to support some people's negative opinions. Even if I share some of them.

I am trying to argue impartially for a change, because I don't like Phaneuf, and never have.
- Aetherial

Well toronto is 27th in the league at pks and im using phaneuf plays the most shorthanded out of any other defender. Goals against dont count again your plus minus on special teams, so thats definitely a factor.

Anecdotal evidence vs. numbers.

The numbers say kunitz is a better player than kessel.
- rangerdanger94

lol no he's not

kunitz is a complimentary player, one of the best mind you, but you dont build a line around him

with a guy like kessel you bring guys in to compliment him.

there is a lot more to it than just numbers

What part of my arguement was anecdotal?

Crosby centers Kunitz ... Nope, it's a fact.
Bozak centers Kessel ... Nope, it's a fact (when Bozak is healthy).

Crosby is better than Bozak (the point I was implying) ... Nope, it's a fact.

So, where was my anecdotal evidence again?
- Aetherial

I dont know. It sounded cool.

Well toronto is 27th in the league at pks and im using phaneuf plays the most shorthanded out of any other defender. Goals against dont count again your plus minus on special teams, so thats definitely a factor.
- rangerdanger94

careful, logic generally doesnt go over well in the leaf threads

lol no he's not

kunitz is a complimentary player, one of the best mind you, but you dont build a line around him

with a guy like kessel you bring guys in to compliment him.

there is a lot more to it than just numbers
- Dozzer

That's my point

Also, in terms of advanced statistics, phaneuf has a really high quality if competition but corsi is -21.45. I dont know what that means but I dont think its good? We all know plus minus is a pretty terrible statistic...probably the worst in pro sports.
- rangerdanger94

Plus/Minus can be misleading because it doesn't factor the player's minutes/who they play against. So when Franson/Fraser were leading the league in plus/minus last year I didnt think much of it because I knew they were mostly playing sheltered minutes against third line players.

On the other hand when I see Phaneuf carry a plus 15 when he is playing top line minutes against the toughest competition in the league it speaks VOLUMES to me. He has been OUTSTANDING this season.

But then, then look at it Morgan Reilly who is a minus 12 in sheltered minutes against low quality players. He has been disgustingly awful in his own end this year, can't believe they didnt send him down. Clearly has potential but is not providing enough offensively to make up for his amateur own zone play.

I dont know. It sounded cool.
- rangerdanger94

lol no he's not

kunitz is a complimentary player, one of the best mind you, but you dont build a line around him

with a guy like kessel you bring guys in to compliment him.

there is a lot more to it than just numbers
- Dozzer

... I think he was trying to throw my own "numbers vs. anecdotes" arguement back into my face.

His mistake was that I didn't use any anecdotal evidence ... unless me claiming Crosby is a better center than Bozak is anecdotal ... If I am guilty of not being objective with that statement ... I'll own that one.

I dont know. It sounded cool.
- rangerdanger94

Thanks, this discussion needed some lightheartedness.

Plus/Minus can be misleading because it doesn't factor the player's minutes/who they play against. So when Franson/Fraser were leading the league in plus/minus last year I didnt think much of it because I knew they were mostly playing sheltered minutes against third line players.

On the other hand when I see Phaneuf carry a plus 15 when he is playing top line minutes against the toughest competition in the league it speaks VOLUMES to me. He has been OUTSTANDING this season.

But then, then look at it Morgan Reilly who is a minus 12 in sheltered minutes against low quality players. He has been disgustingly awful in his own end this year, can't believe they didnt send him down. Clearly has potential but is not providing enough offensively to make up for his amateur own zone play.
- dionschenn

Does the leafs terrible pk % with phaneuf being top 3 in shorthanded time on ice on the team also speak volumes of his ability to defend?

Well toronto is 27th in the league at pks and im using phaneuf plays the most shorthanded out of any other defender. Goals against dont count again your plus minus on special teams, so thats definitely a factor.
- rangerdanger94

I *think* Phaneuf plays most of the PK.

So there is some merit to that arguement, because I won't make the mistake of ignoring the stats that don't support my position

... I will mention that there are a lot of variables on the PK numbers though. It is a pretty tough scenario upon which to judge a player.

Does the leafs terrible pk % with phaneuf being top 3 in shorthanded time on ice on the team also speak volumes of his ability to defend?
- rangerdanger94

I would need to see how many shorthanded goals he has actually been on for, but there is no question his penalty killing could use improvement. He was much more consistent at it last year.

I would need to see how many shorthanded goals he has actually been on for, but there is no question his penalty killing could use improvement. He was much more consistent at it last year.
- dionschenn

Yup.

Does the leafs terrible pk % with phaneuf being top 3 in shorthanded time on ice on the team also speak volumes of his ability to defend?
- rangerdanger94

It could just be that he is not a good Pk'er?

That's possible.

... OR it could be that the Leafs forwards are so unfamiliar with their own end that they can't kill penalties as a team, at all.

... OR it could be that the Leafs best Penalty Killer has been injured most of the year, and their second best penalty killer has played more minutes than he is used to for most of the year.

There could definitely be a Phaneuf component to the problem, but it isn't the whole problem by any means.

... I think he was trying to throw my own "numbers vs. anecdotes" arguement back into my face.

His mistake was that I didn't use any anecdotal evidence ... unless me claiming Crosby is a better center than Bozak is anecdotal ... If I am guilty of not being objective with that statement ... I'll own that one.
- Aetherial

I think our main problem is our bottom 6 and bottom 2 d are back to being useless like every other year. Last year komorov macca frattin mcclement Orr kadri Franson Fraser could all be trusted to put a shift in.this year they have gone or can't be trusted. Would you agree?

Does the leafs terrible pk % with phaneuf being top 3 in shorthanded time on ice on the team also speak volumes of his ability to defend?
- rangerdanger94

Does Chicagos even worse PK % reflect Duncan Keiths inability to defend?

I think our main problem is our bottom 6 and bottom 2 d are back to being useless like every other year. Last year komorov macca frattin mcclement Orr kadri Franson Fraser could all be trusted to put a shift in.this year they have gone or can't be trusted. Would you agree?
- walshyleafsfan

our 4th line has been terrible.

Injuries have hurt.

More than anything though, I have a problem with the work ethic and attitude of the Leafs (probably go hand in hand). One person I want to see gone is Kadri.

I don't care how much potential and talent the kid has, there have been indication of attitude problems there all along. At this point, I think it is addition by subtraction to just get rid of him.

Does Chicagos even worse PK % reflect Duncan Keiths inability to defend?
- markmark

interesting

... I think he was trying to throw my own "numbers vs. anecdotes" arguement back into my face.

His mistake was that I didn't use any anecdotal evidence ... unless me claiming Crosby is a better center than Bozak is anecdotal ... If I am guilty of not being objective with that statement ... I'll own that one.
- Aetherial

yeah.. you need to prove that

It could just be that he is not a good Pk'er?

That's possible.

... OR it could be that the Leafs forwards are so unfamiliar with their own end that they can't kill penalties as a team, at all.

... OR it could be that the Leafs best Penalty Killer has been injured most of the year, and their second best penalty killer has played more minutes than he is used to for most of the year.

There could definitely be a Phaneuf component to the problem, but it isn't the whole problem by any means.
- Aetherial

Similarly to how phaneuf's plus minus can somehow be attributed to the team over him personally.

Does Chicagos even worse PK % reflect Duncan Keiths inability to defend?
- markmark

It seems that way

Does Chicagos even worse PK % reflect Duncan Keiths inability to defend?
- markmark

Does webers terrible plus minus reflect webers ability to defend? What about ben facking lovejoys amazing plus minus?

Does webers terrible plus minus reflect webers ability to defend? What about ben facking lovejoys amazing plus minus?
- rangerdanger94

Remember what I said before about quality of competition? That's why I'm even MORE impressed with Phaneuf.

our 4th line has been terrible.

Injuries have hurt.

More than anything though, I have a problem with the work ethic and attitude of the Leafs (probably go hand in hand). One person I want to see gone is Kadri.

I don't care how much potential and talent the kid has, there have been indication of attitude problems there all along. At this point, I think it is addition by subtraction to just get rid of him.
- Aetherial

Yeah I agree. If orr or McLaren aren't going to punch someone there is no use for them.I just cannot believe the difference in play compared to last year. Not.the results or stats, but the complete shift from being a physical rough team to play against with the best pk in the league to.... well...this. Carlyle needs to stop worrying about this cycle game bullpoop and play to our strengths. That, or get nonis to trade 90% of the roster for guys who can.