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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Sustaining Success
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DrMidnite
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: False-Positive, Texas
Joined: 12.10.2010

Nov 24 @ 6:11 PM ET
The hockey advanced stats community breaks down puck-possession metrics (Corsi/Fenwick) into sub-categories that alleviate some of the inherent situational/score biases -- Corsi/Fenwick Close (possession events in 1-goal game situations) are currently the closest analog to what you're asking about. The numbers aren't as easy to find as standard Corsi/Fenwick, but they're out there.

As for advanced stats in general, they're not at the point where they can really accurately quantify a player's worth alone, but they are perfectly suitable for supplying much-needed context when viewed alongside the traditional stat line, and backing up eyeball observations. Zone-starts and quality-of-competition/quality-of-teammates can also tell you a lot about what a coach thinks of a player and how he chooses to deploy that player.

- Tomahawk


Thanks man. It seems that there are underlying patterns that can be beneficial to those who choose to invest time/money into finding. Like a puzzle, which is why to be a good G.M., consistently, is so hard.

The moneyball viewpoint reminded me of our situation with Briere. He was serviceable in most of his regular seasons with us (give or take) yet he always seemed to show up in the playoffs. We (no one) could afford to pay him the salary we were, yet his best asset (showing up in the playoffs) was one which you can't put a price on.

Clearly his lack of productivity in getting us to the point where he really showed his value was his downfall, but it makes me wonder about the third and fourth line guys that make good teams great and how finding them is so hard.
Yosimar89
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Joined: 05.11.2010

Nov 24 @ 7:07 PM ET
ummmmm ewwwww to the Sabres jerseys today
- nastyflyergirl

They come up with some absolutely horrific uni's and logo's.

Should've stayed with this,

KINGKENZO
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: OMAR COMIN'..Head or Gut?.....Watching regular white people
Joined: 01.10.2008

Nov 24 @ 7:11 PM ET
They come up with some absolutely horrific uni's and logo's.

Should've stayed with this,


- Yosimar89

That's awful too. Stick with the originals, maybe the alterations with the gold piping, no need for a make over
Crimsoninja
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Dude, I am so sorry about whatever made you like this. Take it easy.
Joined: 07.06.2007

Nov 24 @ 7:18 PM ET
That's awful too. Stick with the originals, maybe the alterations with the gold piping, no need for a make over
- KINGKENZO

agreed


these could be iconic by now



they shouldve never switched to Navy blue version.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Nov 24 @ 7:32 PM ET
Thanks man. It seems that there are underlying patterns that can be beneficial to those who choose to invest time/money into finding. Like a puzzle, which is why to be a good G.M., consistently, is so hard.

The moneyball viewpoint reminded me of our situation with Briere. He was serviceable in most of his regular seasons with us (give or take) yet he always seemed to show up in the playoffs. We (no one) could afford to pay him the salary we were, yet his best asset (showing up in the playoffs) was one which you can't put a price on.

Clearly his lack of productivity in getting us to the point where he really showed his value was his downfall, but it makes me wonder about the third and fourth line guys that make good teams great and how finding them is so hard.

- DrMidnite


Any person who is really open to using advanced stats will also tell you that there's no substitute for seeing a player play.

To me, it's just another tool in the toolbox. If used properly, they can be helpful. If used improperly, they paint a picture that isn't true.
KINGKENZO
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: OMAR COMIN'..Head or Gut?.....Watching regular white people
Joined: 01.10.2008

Nov 24 @ 7:36 PM ET
agreed


these could be iconic by now



they shouldve never switched to Navy blue version.

- Crimsoninja

Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Nov 24 @ 7:37 PM ET
agreed


these could be iconic by now



they shouldve never switched to Navy blue version.

- Crimsoninja


Always loved the old Sabres unis, blues and whites.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Nov 24 @ 7:41 PM ET


If I was a Sabres fan, I'd be more pissed about this than the third jerseys.

90 seconds left, losing the game and guys having a laugh on the bench
Crimsoninja
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Dude, I am so sorry about whatever made you like this. Take it easy.
Joined: 07.06.2007

Nov 24 @ 7:44 PM ET
Always loved the old Sabres unis, blues and whites.
- Jsaquella

yes, the whites were awesome
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Nov 24 @ 7:59 PM ET


If I was a Sabres fan, I'd be more pissed about this than the third jerseys.

90 seconds left, losing the game and guys having a laugh on the bench

- Jsaquella

Miller seems like one of the few players left on the team who cares anymore.
Crimsoninja
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Dude, I am so sorry about whatever made you like this. Take it easy.
Joined: 07.06.2007

Nov 24 @ 8:01 PM ET
Miller seems like one of the few players left on the team who cares anymore.
- JAKEw1234

well all the poopty defense in front of him could be costing him $$$ come FA after this year
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Nov 24 @ 8:07 PM ET
well all the poopty defense in front of him could be costing him $$$ come FA after this year
- Crimsoninja

Considering how good he's doing in front of that defense, I think his value is actually going up
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Nov 24 @ 8:27 PM ET
Any person who is really open to using advanced stats will also tell you that there's no substitute for seeing a player play.

To me, it's just another tool in the toolbox. If used properly, they can be helpful. If used improperly, they paint a picture that isn't true.

- Jsaquella



Classic case of eyeing the numbers but never having seen the player play... a few months back, Travis over at BSH penned this article about Matt Hunwick being on waivers and how, based on his adv. metrics, he was a "dominant" player for the Avs that would be a definite upgrade for the Flyers... they couldn't wrap their heads around why he was on waivers in the first place... and after the article, when Hunwick was passed on by all 30 clubs, their minds were completely blown.

Simple fact is, if they had ever bothered to watch Matt Hunwick play, it would have been obvious why he was on waivers, and why he's always been nothing but a fringe NHL'er.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Nov 24 @ 8:35 PM ET
Classic case of eyeing the numbers but never having seen the player play... a few months back, Travis over at BSH penned this article about Matt Hunwick being on waivers and how, based on his adv. metrics, he was a "dominant" player for the Avs that would be a definite upgrade for the Flyers... they couldn't wrap their heads around why he was on waivers in the first place... and after the article, when Hunwick was passed on by all 30 clubs, their minds were completely blown.

Simple fact is, if they had ever bothered to watch Matt Hunwick play, it would have been obvious why he was on waivers, and why he's always been nothing but a fringe NHL'er.

- Tomahawk


I vaguely recall the Matt Hunwick stuff. I think a lot of people shy away from the analytics because of the attitudes of some of the proponents of using them.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Nov 24 @ 8:37 PM ET
10-12, two more wins to go to get to .500 on the season. I must say I am very impressed with this turnaround. Amazing what happens when you implement a system that fits your personnel.
DrMidnite
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: False-Positive, Texas
Joined: 12.10.2010

Nov 24 @ 9:45 PM ET
Miller seems like one of the few players left on the team who cares anymore.
- JAKEw1234


Omg. It looks like the off-spring between the retro LA Kings jersey's and the cookie monster.

I took the #89 in ice hockey as tribute to Alexander Mogilny.
eshake
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philly, PA
Joined: 06.20.2009

Nov 24 @ 10:19 PM ET
I would dig a Flyers alternate that is more reminiscent of the mid-80's. No black
Lexington Flyer
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: NoHockeyTown , KY
Joined: 04.02.2008

Nov 24 @ 10:58 PM ET
I would dig a Flyers alternate that is more reminiscent of the mid-80's. No black
- eshake


How about almost all black? I miss the black jerseys. Take the current orange shirts and just invert all of the orange to black and the black to orange (logo excepted, of course). It would look bad-assed.

EDIT: Leave the shorts black.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Nov 24 @ 11:10 PM ET
I vaguely recall the Matt Hunwick stuff. I think a lot of people shy away from the analytics because of the attitudes of some of the proponents of using them.
- Jsaquella



Attitude from the hockey purist set can be pretty crappy, too. It's sad, because there's actually a ton of common ground, and so much to gain from collaboration/synthesis.
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Nov 25 @ 3:45 AM ET
Attitude from the hockey purist set can be pretty crappy, too. It's sad, because there's actually a ton of common ground, and so much to gain from collaboration/synthesis.
- Tomahawk


Absolutely. The more ways you can look at the game, the closer to a complete picture you get.

That said, Anthony Mingioni and I still joke to this day about Nikolay Zherdev leading the world in Corsi yet no team wanting him to stay around for very long (for both on-ice and off-ice reasons).
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Nov 25 @ 3:51 AM ET
10-12, two more wins to go to get to .500 on the season. I must say I am very impressed with this turnaround. Amazing what happens when you implement a system that fits your personnel.
- MBFlyerfan


I'd say the Flyers are 10-11-1, since a shootout win/loss is basically a tie with the skills competition bonus point going to the other team (and when that team is in the other conference, as Winnipeg is now, it's truly a "who cares"). The OT loss in Carolina, conversely, was truly a loss even though the Flyers got a point out of it.

Of course, statistically speaking, 10-10-2 is actually .500 since it's 22 of 44 points.
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