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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Good Start to Homestand
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Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Nov 20 @ 10:43 AM ET
I'm basing it on his contract for this year, his RFA status, and his play this year.

He's due for a raise, but not a mammoth one.

- bradleyc4



A 1-year deal is tough... Mason will qualify for full UFA rights after next season... and if Homer's negotiating the deal (and I hope he's not), it's going to be long-term, paying for UFA years, etc etc, same old poop.


BTW, amazing how motivated guys can be in contract years, eh?
bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

Nov 20 @ 10:45 AM ET
A 1-year deal is tough... Mason will qualify for full UFA rights after next season... and if Homer's negotiating the deal (and I hope he's not), it's going to be long-term, paying for UFA years, etc etc, same old poop.


BTW, amazing how motivated guys can be in contract years, eh?

- Tomahawk


I'm sure Mason's side will be pushing for a multi-year deal. If that occurs, it should be at a "discount."
bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

Nov 20 @ 10:45 AM ET
Also, CapGeek just confirmed that Steve Mason can be signed at any time. Doesn't have to wait until Jan. 1.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Nov 20 @ 10:49 AM ET
I'm sure Mason's side will be pushing for a multi-year deal. If that occurs, it should be at a "discount."
- bradleyc4



Think Homer will push for it, too, is what I was saying... and I'm not sure they'll be able to depress his cap-hit by much since they'll be paying for UFA years.

My optimistic guess is 3-years, $4.5M+. Puts him around Halak/Schneider/Pavelec territory with a little post-lockout bump.

In my nightmares, they go full on Bobrovsky/Jimmy Howard.
Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

Nov 20 @ 10:51 AM ET
Fun new Brad Marsh blog on the front page about his favorite old-school home/away arenas. I totally agree with him about the deafening and obtrusive volume of the sound systems at today's arenas.
- bmeltzer


It's for the "new" fans that the NHL seems to covet. The ones with ADD. The ones who like the shootout. The ones who will abandon a team when the going gets rough.
Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

Nov 20 @ 10:52 AM ET
What would be a fair contract for Mason, in your opinion?
- johndewar


Too early to say, imho. I'd wait until nearly the end of the season to start worrying about that.
Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

Nov 20 @ 10:52 AM ET
What would be a fair contract for Mason, in your opinion?
- johndewar


Too early to say, imho. I'd wait until nearly the end of the season to start worrying about that.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Nov 20 @ 10:53 AM ET
I'm sure Mason's side will be pushing for a multi-year deal. If that occurs, it should be at a "discount."
- bradleyc4


So, we have two options according to you:

a) Give him a small increase (less than $1.5M bump) after going from terrible to Team MVP on a one-year deal, after which he will be a UFA and open to any team for whatever term/length he can get.

b) Ask him to give up a number of UFA years (length -1) at a discount.

Not sure he's going to do either of those, and I'm not sure the Flyers will be comfortable tempting fate.
bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

Nov 20 @ 10:53 AM ET
Think Homer will push for it, too, is what I was saying... and I'm not sure they'll be able to depress his cap-hit by much since they'll be paying for UFA years.

My optimistic guess is 3-years, $4.5M+. Puts him around Halak/Schneider/Pavelec territory with a little post-lockout bump.

In my nightmares, they go full on Bobrovsky/Jimmy Howard.

- Tomahawk


That would be really foolish. What's the motivation for Philadelphia to do that? If Mason's camp wants that much, make him play one more year under an RFA contract and truly earn it.
bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

Nov 20 @ 10:55 AM ET
So, we have two options according to you:

a) Give him a small increase (less than $1.5M bump) after going from terrible to Team MVP on a one-year deal, after which he will be a UFA and open to any team for whatever term/length he can get.

b) Ask him to give up a number of UFA years (length -1) at a discount.

Not sure he's going to do either of those, and I'm not sure the Flyers will be comfortable tempting fate.

- jmatchett383


RFA's don't have as many options as UFA's.

Also, my philosophy of not overpaying for goaltending is at play here.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Nov 20 @ 10:57 AM ET
That would be really foolish. What's the motivation for Philadelphia to do that? If Mason's camp wants that much, make him play one more year under an RFA contract and truly earn it.
- bradleyc4



If I were GM, that's what I would do, since the UFA goalie market has been so soft.

However... we're talking about the Flyers... the same team that doled out huge, foolish, preemptive extensions to just about every impending RFA not named Brayden Schenn.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Nov 20 @ 10:58 AM ET
RFA's don't have as many options as UFA's.

Also, my philosophy of not overpaying for goaltending is at play here.

- bradleyc4


It's one thing to overpay a guy like Leighton who was a journeyman AHLer for years and caught lightning in a bottle for 30 games, or to pay a crazy amount to Bryzgalov without letting him hit the market. It's another to have a young guy who's displayed he has the talent and ability and to pay him $3.5M-$4M for 3-4 years to be your #1. I'd rather go that route than sign him for one year and then overpay since he's a UFA.
bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

Nov 20 @ 11:00 AM ET
If I were GM, that's what I would do, since the UFA goalie market has been so soft.

However... we're talking about the Flyers... the same team that doled out huge, foolish, preemptive extensions to just about every impending RFA not named Brayden Schenn.

- Tomahawk


After witnessing the roller-coaster career of Sergei Bobrovsky (and many, many other goaltenders), I'd hope they learn their lesson with that position.

Although, I'm certainly not confident that will be the case.

If Mason's camp wants that much money now, I'd just qualify him and let the chips fall. D. Dubnyk would be my back-up plan.
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

Nov 20 @ 11:00 AM ET
If I were GM, that's what I would do, since the UFA goalie market has been so soft.

However... we're talking about the Flyers... the same team that doled out huge, foolish, preemptive extensions to just about every impending RFA not named Brayden Schenn.

- Tomahawk

To clarify, you're saying the Couturier extension was foolish?
bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

Nov 20 @ 11:01 AM ET
It's one thing to overpay a guy like Leighton who was a journeyman AHLer for years and caught lightning in a bottle for 30 games, or to pay a crazy amount to Bryzgalov without letting him hit the market. It's another to have a young guy who's displayed he has the talent and ability and to pay him $3.5M-$4M for 3-4 years to be your #1. I'd rather go that route than sign him for one year and then overpay since he's a UFA.
- jmatchett383


I think you're overvaluing Mason. He has years of mediocrity under his belt.

Yes, he has improved since the trade and under Jeff Reese's tutelage. But it's way too risky for the Flyers to make that kind of commitment to Mason.

Although, I do acknowledge that the Flyers management takes many risks.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Nov 20 @ 11:02 AM ET
After witnessing the roller-coaster career of Sergei Bobrovsky (and many, many other goaltenders), I'd hope they learn their lesson with that position.

Although, I'm certainly not confident that will be the case.

If Mason's camp wants that much money now, I'd just qualify him and let the chips fall. D. Dubnyk would be my back-up plan.

- bradleyc4


You mean the guy who's in line to be supplanted by Ilya Bryzgalov? He's your possible starter for next year?
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

Nov 20 @ 11:03 AM ET
You mean the guy who's in line to be supplanted by Ilya Bryzgalov? He's your possible starter for next year?
- jmatchett383

To be fair, putting all our eggs in the Steve Mason basket would sound just as insane if you said it one year ago today.
hammarby31
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: it's been 84 years, AZ
Joined: 01.02.2007

Nov 20 @ 11:04 AM ET
speaking of mason, i just got this in my inbox from an excellent source:

"a lot of the changes started in CBJ and their g coach told me he was vastly improved last season, just couldn't get net from Bob to show it, but seems they have simplified his game further by playing deep. He always had the tools but not the toolbox -- he was all over the place and didn't seem smart enough to know it. Coach would ask him after a goal where he thought his positioning and depth should have been on a certain chance, and he's answer correctly, but then they'd show him tape and he'd be 3-4 feet off that mark, usually way out of the crease … not the case anymore"
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Nov 20 @ 11:04 AM ET
I think you're overvaluing Mason. He has years of mediocrity under his belt.

Yes, he has improved since the trade and under Jeff Reese's tutelage. But it's way too risky for the Flyers to make that kind of commitment to Mason.

Although, I do acknowledge that the Flyers management takes many risks.

- bradleyc4


Maybe I am. But a one-year deal is a terrible idea. Because, after that deal, if he doesn't feel he's being compensated fairly, he's welcome to walk out the door for the best offer 30 teams will give him. I'd rather lock him up and buy a few of those UFA years. It's the same thing as Halak/Pavelec basically, and those extensions were straight off ELCs.
Tomahawk
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Nov 20 @ 11:04 AM ET
To clarify, you're saying the Couturier extension was foolish?
- BulliesPhan87



Of course, Couturier's wasn't bad... and they really ended up getting a ton of value on Giroux's 2nd-contract as well. But those have been the exception.
bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

Nov 20 @ 11:04 AM ET
You mean the guy who's in line to be supplanted by Ilya Bryzgalov? He's your possible starter for next year?
- jmatchett383


Once again, you're looking at this too narrowly. Look at the team in front of him. Look at his previous years. He's a solid goaltender.

Dubnyk would be a great buy-low guy for someone next season.
bradleyc4
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the jewelry is still out
Joined: 01.16.2007

Nov 20 @ 11:05 AM ET
Maybe I am. But a one-year deal is a terrible idea. Because, after that deal, if he doesn't feel he's being compensated fairly, he's welcome to walk out the door for the best offer 30 teams will give him. I'd rather lock him up and buy a few of those UFA years. It's the same thing as Halak/Pavelec basically, and those extensions were straight off ELCs.
- jmatchett383


And those contracts have been mistakes for both teams. More so with Pavelec than Halak.
jmatchett383
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Newark, DE
Joined: 03.09.2010

Nov 20 @ 11:06 AM ET
To be fair, putting all our eggs in the Steve Mason basket would sound just as insane if you said it one year ago today.
- BulliesPhan87


Better than doing the same bargain shopping idea we've been doing since the Cechmanek days or giving a 9-year extension to a 31-year-old UFA. I just don't want to lose the guy who looks like he may actually be a legit NHL starter after 2+ years of service.
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

Nov 20 @ 11:06 AM ET
Of course, Couturier's wasn't bad... and they really ended up getting a ton of value on Giroux's 2nd-contract as well. But those have been the exception.
- Tomahawk

Which deals in particular are you looking at that so heavily outweigh those two, that they're the exception?
exlund
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Manywhere, NJ
Joined: 02.16.2007

Nov 20 @ 11:07 AM ET
Or stop with the Rinaldo experiment. (on PK)
- bradleyc4


I think he's got the tools to be good onit he PK but like anything, there will be some learning curve...I like his speed/quickness and tenacity...just has to refine his tactics/positioning and I think he'll be a good PKer.
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