Here are my revised cap calculations. I'll show my work this time so that anyone who might know better can correct any mistakes I may make.
As of TODAY, the Red Wings are carrying 26 players (3 above the usual limit thanks to Ericsson being on LTIR and Smith and Franzen on short-term IR). The total
year long cap cost of all those 26 players put together, plus an extra $25,000 for Nyquist (since his salary is slightly higher than the limit of what the Wings are allowed to bury) is
$66,849,545 - which excludes all performance bonuses. (Please note, this is slightly higher than Capgeek's "cap payroll" calculation because the players who have been up and down this year - Mrazek, Almquist, Glendening, etc. - will only count against the cap for the time they spend on the NHL roster.
Of the players on the roster TODAY, the following are waiver exempt: Ouellet, Glendening, Tootoo (because he already cleared), DeKeyser.
Because Detroit has exactly $0 in "banked" cap space so far (since they've been using LTIR credits and have over the cap all season long), as soon as they get everyone off LTIR they would have to get the full-season cap cost of their roster under the $64.3 million cap. Only after that point could they begin to "bank" space and get a little more breathing room as the season progresses.
Assume that Ericsson is ready to come off LTIR on November 15, with no other players traded or placed onto LTIR in the meantime.
If Detroit were to demote Ouellet, Glendening, and Tootoo, that would leave them with 23 players and
$64,679,545 in full-season cap hits the roster. That is not enough. They would need to trim an additional
$379,545 out of the budget.
One thing that they technically could do as an emergency, temporary resort, which I had missed earlier, is demote DeKeyser. But that would likely leave them with only 5 healthy defenders if Smith isn't back yet. Plus it would, frankly, be stupid.
Again, I could have made an error somewhere in my calculations or my understanding of how the cap works, so please correct me if I'm wrong. If you want to check my numbers the spreadsheet is below. The group on the left is the current roster; the right is the roster with Ouellet, Glendening, and Tootoo demoted:
https://docs.google.com/s...9RNkE&usp=drive_web#gid=0