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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: One More Point Slips Away
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LJF
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Jersey Baby Jersey
Joined: 04.17.2009

Nov 6 @ 9:33 PM ET
why the (frank) is kris blueberry on the roster?
- KGBflyers10


Because they don't like McGinn. Not sure why, but they don't.
exlund
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Manywhere, NJ
Joined: 02.16.2007

Nov 6 @ 9:34 PM ET
mark my words...one of these days the team is going to bust out with goals and start scoring again and it won't be because a sniper was brought in or a mobile D man was added...it wil be more about confidence and the development and maturation of a young team learning how to win than anything else.
LJF
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Jersey Baby Jersey
Joined: 04.17.2009

Nov 6 @ 9:39 PM ET
mark my words...one of these days the team is going to bust out with goals and start scoring again and it won't be because a sniper was brought in or a mobile D man was added...it wil be more about condifence and the development and maturation of a young team learning how to win than anything else.
- exlund


Which season will this happen?
vejim
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: FL
Joined: 07.08.2007

Nov 6 @ 9:49 PM ET
Which season will this happen?
- LJF

2018
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Nov 6 @ 9:56 PM ET
mark my words...one of these days the team is going to bust out with goals and start scoring again and it won't be because a sniper was brought in or a mobile D man was added...it wil be more about condifence and the development and maturation of a young team learning how to win than anything else.
- exlund

...and Kris Newbury
MunsterMike
Joined: 01.14.2010

Nov 6 @ 10:04 PM ET
...and Kris Newbury
- JAKEw1234


...is never the answer...?
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Nov 6 @ 10:06 PM ET
mark my words...one of these days the team is going to bust out with goals and start scoring again and it won't be because a sniper was brought in or a mobile D man was added...it wil be more about condifence and the development and maturation of a young team learning how to win than anything else.
- exlund


I want to believe that will happen.

But I do not think it will. I hope you are right, and if so, by all means, mark it down and tell me as many times as you'd like that you told me so.

But I do not think this roster, as currently constructed, is going to start scoring goals at an average of three goals per night for a stretch of, say...10 straight games.

I just don't see it in this roster, and it pains me to say that.


jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Nov 6 @ 10:07 PM ET
This team is small and slow. I'll give it a few more games, but the Homer plan is failing big time. I still have no idea why one of the worst defensive forwards is on the ice up 1 with under a minute to go. wtf was Grossman's icing? Stop baby sitting G. Flip flop Raffl and McGinn as a reward.

Hartnell-G-V
Schenn-Lecav-Downey
Raffl-Couts-Read
McGinn-Hall-Rinaldi
exlund
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Manywhere, NJ
Joined: 02.16.2007

Nov 6 @ 10:09 PM ET
I want to believe that will happen.

But I do not think it will. I hope you are right, and if so, by all means, mark it down and tell me as many times as you'd like that you told me so.

But I do not think this roster, as currently constructed, is going to start scoring goals at an average of three goals per night for a stretch of, say...10 straight games.

I just don't see it in this roster, and it pains me to say that.

- AllInForFlyers


I don't think they are simply what we're seeing now...nor are they anywhere near a Cup contender...but they have the talent to break out of this extended scoring slump, of that I'm pretty certain. We'll see.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Nov 6 @ 10:11 PM ET
mark my words...one of these days the team is going to bust out with goals and start scoring again and it won't be because a sniper was brought in or a mobile D man was added...it wil be more about condifence and the development and maturation of a young team learning how to win than anything else.
- exlund


I think it could happen, but I still feel they need to add mobility to the blue line and get guys who are better-or at least smarter-with the puck. So many goals off bad turnovers or unforced puck mistakes, like Grossmann's icing against the 'Canes.

But I agree, on paper they should be a playoff team. There's talent.
hammarby31
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: it's been 84 years, AZ
Joined: 01.02.2007

Nov 6 @ 11:10 PM ET
wow Rinne has E.Coli in his hip? crazy. Nashville will probably over pay big time for a goalie
- nastyflyergirl


he probably got it from watching the flyers.
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Nov 7 @ 12:12 AM ET
he probably got it from watching the flyers.
- hammarby31
wilsonecho91
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: A dream to some...a nightmare to others, AK
Joined: 11.13.2007

Nov 7 @ 1:01 AM ET

- hereticpride

wilsonecho91
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: A dream to some...a nightmare to others, AK
Joined: 11.13.2007

Nov 7 @ 1:10 AM ET
Marc D
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: best smile, 14 without fake tees
Joined: 03.28.2008

Nov 7 @ 5:51 AM ET
wow Rinne has E.Coli in his hip? crazy. Nashville will probably over pay big time for a goalie
- nastyflyergirl

first thought is yuk that's gross, E coli = poop

second is that is going to be 6 weeks of IV antibiotics and then maybe more surgery, ie: done for the season?
Marc D
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: best smile, 14 without fake tees
Joined: 03.28.2008

Nov 7 @ 5:52 AM ET
mark my words...one of these days the team is going to bust out with goals and start scoring again and it won't be because a sniper was brought in or a mobile D man was added...it wil be more about condifence and the development and maturation of a young team learning how to win than anything else.
- exlund

I like you ex
Marc D
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: best smile, 14 without fake tees
Joined: 03.28.2008

Nov 7 @ 5:54 AM ET
#1 diagnosis given was a recently watched flyers game
- hogweed

that + etoh would do it
BulliesPhan87
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: the lone wolf of hockeybuzz
Joined: 07.31.2009

Nov 7 @ 9:59 AM ET
he probably got it from watching the flyers.
- hammarby31

watching the Flyers is a degenerative condition
Chris48
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Gatineau
Joined: 10.21.2011

Nov 7 @ 12:35 PM ET
This team is small and slow. I'll give it a few more games, but the Homer plan is failing big time. I still have no idea why one of the worst defensive forwards is on the ice up 1 with under a minute to go. wtf was Grossman's icing? Stop baby sitting G. Flip flop Raffl and McGinn as a reward.

Hartnell-G-V
Schenn-Lecav-Downey
Raffl-Couts-Read
McGinn-Hall-Rinaldi

- jstross



Simmonds ?????
-davies-
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: A medical emergency involving you.
Joined: 08.05.2013

Nov 7 @ 12:47 PM ET
Simmonds ?????
- Chris48



traded for rinaldi
Chris48
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Gatineau
Joined: 10.21.2011

Nov 7 @ 12:48 PM ET
traded for rinaldi
- -davies-

Chris48
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Gatineau
Joined: 10.21.2011

Nov 7 @ 1:15 PM ET


Anyone think the scoring drought may be associated to the poor offensive zone entries with puck possession ?

Obviously the transition game and breakouts and the lack of quality puck moving defenseman are all factors, but getting into the offensive zone with control of the puck vs a chip/dump in generates 50% more shots and scoring chances.

Everyone skating in a straight line, the opposing D just waits at the blueline, dump and chase by the flyer player that results in poor scoring chances.


http://nhlnumbers.com/201...ssion-over-dump-and-chase

Carrying the puck in is way better than dumping it in, more than twice as good -- and it's not because of odd-man rushes or player skill or any other external factor; it's just because having the puck in the opponent's zone headed towards the goal is a lot better than trying to outrace the opponent to try to get the puck in the corner.


Most people don't recognize just how big the difference is, and the data suggests that teams should be trying harder than they are to carry the puck in. If coaches are telling their third line to dump the puck, they are probably giving away scoring chances. If coaches are telling the players to dump the puck in borderline situations where they think carrying it might lead to a turnover, they are probably giving away scoring chances. Even regrouping and trying again might be better than dumping the puck in, especially when the team has their top line on the ice.

Chris48
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Gatineau
Joined: 10.21.2011

Nov 7 @ 1:20 PM ET
Carry-in 0.57 Pass-in 0.56 Dump-in 0.25 Deflect-in 0.26

Above, Shots per entry, overall

Flyers' zone entries in 2011-12. One of the things I noted is that carrying the puck into the offensive zone generates a lot more offense than dumping the puck in.

http://nhlnumbers.com/201...ssion-over-dump-and-chase
Chris48
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Gatineau
Joined: 10.21.2011

Nov 7 @ 1:34 PM ET
2013 Flyers Zone entry data

http://www.broadstreethoc...ntry-data-oh-the-humanity

The key finding was this: shot differential (which in turn is a great proxy for scoring chances and puck possession) is driven heavily by how a team does in the neutral zone.

Advancing the puck forward more often than the opponents do (so they get more entries) and keeping control of it as they enter the zone (rather than dumping it in) are major drivers of outshooting the opponent. Play in the attack ends appeared to be much less of a factor in shot differential; the best lines might get higher quality shots from each possession, but they didn't seem to take appreciably more of them.

This is an exciting transition for advanced stats: we're moving from describing what happened with a specific player on the ice to what the individual might have done to drive those results. The strongest individual contribution to shot differential appears to be what percentage of the time a player's zone entries are by carrying the puck in rather than dumping it in.
-davies-
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: A medical emergency involving you.
Joined: 08.05.2013

Nov 7 @ 3:33 PM ET


chris, there's a new blog.
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