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Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: Leivo Demoted To Marlies
Author Message
Dozzer
Referee
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow since I’m way up high
Joined: 09.15.2010

Oct 23 @ 1:28 PM ET
Denied... I don't want to lose Gardiner
- SofaKingBored


he's already lost to you

let him go man.. let him be free
daeth
Colorado Avalanche
Location: 43 points, ON
Joined: 09.15.2005

Oct 23 @ 1:28 PM ET
You're thinking about it the wrong way. These little miscues don't matter in the grand scheme of things. Corsi correlates literally perfectly with puck possession. Teams that possess the puck more tend to take more shot attempts than their opponents. It's that simple. Corsi = shot attempts. Don't overthink it.
- panek

Perfectly? No.

It's just one of the only ways we can currently guess at possession since the league doesn't actually track possession. It's far from perfect.
zazzle
Joined: 01.19.2013

Oct 23 @ 1:28 PM ET
I am willing to sit on the fence with corsi/fenwick until someone can actually show me something or prove its working to predict something. I like all forms of stats, the more info the better.

and since those from behind centre, and it bounces off the boards, off the back of the goalies skate, and into the net goals only happen once every 5 years we are good for a while

- senstroll



and is that per goalie? per team? if so we still have another stinker to come.
Dozzer
Referee
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow since I’m way up high
Joined: 09.15.2010

Oct 23 @ 1:28 PM ET
good man!

take one in the pills but still hangs on to the beer.

bravo!

- zazzle


i know! the man has his priorities straight
peddy-93
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Bernier is better than Reimer, Reimer is better than Bernier - #TOproblems, ON
Joined: 06.08.2012

Oct 23 @ 1:29 PM ET
yeah a pair of real NHL GMs
- honesthockey

Don't need NHL GM's for this survey, no ones stupid enough to have Bozak over Gardiner. Oh wait....
Gary_B.
Location: stormey is an idiot. forget it. - Pecafan Fan, NY
Joined: 07.23.2013

Oct 23 @ 1:29 PM ET
Who's panicking? Unlike much of the advanced stats crowd, I actually happen to think that the Leafs aren't doomed to hugely regress. Their goaltending and shooting skill is just too strong. That said, they do need to improve in possession if they're going to compete for the cup. They don't hold a candle to the Blackhawks of the NHL... yet...
- panek


just a Toews, Sharp, Keith and Seabrook away.
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Oct 23 @ 1:30 PM ET
It's not really meant to be used like that. It gets dumb when it is though.

edit: oh, i see i missed an essay that used 1000 words to say the say thing. my bad.

- daeth

problem is, that's what lots of people do.

Bad corsi=bad team.

Bad Corsi+good results= lucky team.

It's pretty much exactly the same as using +/- to judge a player's worth.
markmark
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 07.27.2010

Oct 23 @ 1:31 PM ET
Why is Bozak still on the PP?
honesthockey
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Click heels twice and 1c appears.
Joined: 09.23.2008

Oct 23 @ 1:31 PM ET
Don't need NHL GM's for this survey, no ones stupid enough to have Bozak over Gardiner. Oh wait....
- peddy-93


you are (frank)ed if you think Gardiner is more valuable then Bozak
Gary_B.
Location: stormey is an idiot. forget it. - Pecafan Fan, NY
Joined: 07.23.2013

Oct 23 @ 1:31 PM ET
problem is, that's what lots of people do.

Bad corsi=bad team.

Bad Corsi+good results= lucky team.

It's pretty much exactly the same as using +/- to judge a player's worth.

- Feeling Glucky?


they really don't.
Rockhead_37
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Bolton, ON
Joined: 09.11.2010

Oct 23 @ 1:31 PM ET
Guys, Corsi is just a proxy for puck possession. That's it. In fact, it correlates almost perfectly with offensive zone attack time.

And guess what? Teams that possess the puck TEND to win more games. Duh.

That doesn't mean you need to be the best puck possession team to win games. There are teams that possess the puck well (cough New Jersey cough) but lack the scoring touch to win. But consider this: 3 of the last 6 Stanley Cup champions were the best puck possession team in the regular season. Of all the recent Stanley Cup finalists, only the Penguins were in the bottom half of possession. So again, Corsi isn't everything, but it's certainly a defining feature of all of the NHL's best franchises (Boston, LA, Chicago).

The Leafs are winning because of great goaltending (and PK) and high goal scoring/shooting percentage (they have exceptionally skilled forwards and tend to score off the rush or on the PP -- i.e., in high shooting percentage situations). But their lack of puck possession is pretty glaring. No one in their right mind thinks you can win games getting 2 shots on goal a period. Even Carlyle is harping on the Leafs' possession problems.

The good news is they're still winning. They're also missing Kulemin and Clarkson, two puck possession wingers so their possession numbers will likely improve.

I'll end this simply by saying this: if you're gonna try to rail against the stats, try to at least understand them. All Corsi does is describe what we are all seeing with our eyes -- the Leafs are getting outshot and outpossessed on a nightly basis. That typically doesn't bode well. Thankfully the Leafs have great goaltending and exceptional forwards. JVR is a beast. That is all.

Cheers

- panek


Thanks @mirtle, but we already know your stance.... and it's full of holes
peddy-93
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Bernier is better than Reimer, Reimer is better than Bernier - #TOproblems, ON
Joined: 06.08.2012

Oct 23 @ 1:31 PM ET
Why is Bozak still on the PP?
- markmark

I dont know, ask HH
honesthockey
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Click heels twice and 1c appears.
Joined: 09.23.2008

Oct 23 @ 1:31 PM ET
Why is Bozak still on the PP?
- markmark


Someone's gotta start with the puck. And retrieve it.
The Law
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 01.29.2008

Oct 23 @ 1:32 PM ET
Last night before the team woke up, Orr-Mcclement-Bodie had probably the best shift of the game to that point, and then Orr drew a penalty. These guys contribute, and on nights like last night they need to play more.
- Leafland


I agree ....great at what they need to do.
honesthockey
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Click heels twice and 1c appears.
Joined: 09.23.2008

Oct 23 @ 1:32 PM ET
I dont know, ask HH
- peddy-93


love that an NHL coaching staff knows less then you
markmark
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 07.27.2010

Oct 23 @ 1:32 PM ET
Someone's gotta start with the puck. And retrieve it.
- honesthockey


Kadri is winning draws just as well as Bozak. Why not use a player that actually has some offensive tools?
Fruitcakenipple
Location: NF
Joined: 01.12.2011

Oct 23 @ 1:32 PM ET
you are (frank)ed if you think Gardiner is more valuable then Bozak
- honesthockey



What??...Bozak +contract+NTC= unmovable...
ILoveLamp
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 02.01.2011

Oct 23 @ 1:33 PM ET
Guys, Corsi is just a proxy for puck possession. That's it. In fact, it correlates almost perfectly with offensive zone attack time.

And guess what? Teams that possess the puck TEND to win more games. Duh.

That doesn't mean you need to be the best puck possession team to win games. There are teams that possess the puck well (cough New Jersey cough) but lack the scoring touch to win. But consider this: 3 of the last 6 Stanley Cup champions were the best puck possession team in the regular season. Of all the recent Stanley Cup finalists, only the Penguins were in the bottom half of possession. So again, Corsi isn't everything, but it's certainly a defining feature of all of the NHL's best franchises (Boston, LA, Chicago).

The Leafs are winning because of great goaltending (and PK) and high goal scoring/shooting percentage (they have exceptionally skilled forwards and tend to score off the rush or on the PP -- i.e., in high shooting percentage situations). But their lack of puck possession is pretty glaring. No one in their right mind thinks you can win games getting 2 shots on goal a period. Even Carlyle is harping on the Leafs' possession problems.

The good news is they're still winning. They're also missing Kulemin and Clarkson, two puck possession wingers so their possession numbers will likely improve.

I'll end this simply by saying this: if you're gonna try to rail against the stats, try to at least understand them. All Corsi does is describe what we are all seeing with our eyes -- the Leafs are getting outshot and outpossessed on a nightly basis. That typically doesn't bode well. Thankfully the Leafs have great goaltending and exceptional forwards. JVR is a beast. That is all.

Cheers

- panek


Team Corsi this year.
Number 2 - New Jersey (currently 27th in the NHL)
Number 5 - Ottawa (currently 21st in the NHL)
Number 7 - Montreal (Currently 17th in the NHL)
Number 9 - NYR (Currently 28th in the NHL)

or how about opposite
Number 18 - Pitts (currently 3rd in the NHL)
Number 19 - Colorado (currently 2nd in the NHL)
Number 22 - Anaheim (currently 4th in the NHL)
Number 30 - Toronto (currently 6th in the NHL)

great stats guys

Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Oct 23 @ 1:33 PM ET
they really don't.
- Gary_B.

Well, the ones that used corsi all summer to predict the Leafs failing this season certainly did.
Compeyson
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: That one place, NV
Joined: 06.28.2011

Oct 23 @ 1:33 PM ET
Someone's gotta start with the puck. And retrieve it.
- honesthockey


And make Kessel better right?

Those assists on all of his goals last night were phenomenal. That behind-the-back no looker was all Bozak, Kessel simply soaks up all of his talent.

Wait.... Hold on.. That wasn't Bozak, it was....
Feeling Glucky?
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Tanktown, ON
Joined: 10.08.2008

Oct 23 @ 1:34 PM ET
love that an NHL coaching staff knows less then you
- honesthockey

Same way they know less about Gardiner than you do, right?
peddy-93
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Bernier is better than Reimer, Reimer is better than Bernier - #TOproblems, ON
Joined: 06.08.2012

Oct 23 @ 1:34 PM ET
What??...Bozak +contract+NTC= unmovable...
- Fruitcakenipple

Don't even bring in the conract or value, just on ice play. Bozak rules...... NAT
Byfuglien Ate Me
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Burger King
Joined: 09.24.2010

Oct 23 @ 1:34 PM ET
he's already lost to you

let him go man.. let him be free

- Dozzer


Hey Bruce, would you actually like to see Jake traded?

Rielly is staying, that's fact, so do we move Jake? And for what?
honesthockey
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Click heels twice and 1c appears.
Joined: 09.23.2008

Oct 23 @ 1:34 PM ET
What??...Bozak +contract+NTC= unmovable...
- Fruitcakenipple


They just signed him pretty obvious he's going no where. Carlyle loves the kid. Nonis too.
Popcorn Kid
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 02.21.2008

Oct 23 @ 1:35 PM ET
are those numbers named after ex NHL sieve goalie Jim Corsi?
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