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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Flyers Come Up Small in Measuring Stick Game
Author Message
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Oct 18 @ 6:11 PM ET
Most of the whole damn team is guilty of this! For whatever reason they just stop skating and usually its at the worst possible time. Raffl, McGinn and Read stand out because they are always skating. Its not so much that individual players are slow, rather they are just making poor decisions. The million dollar question is why. Why do they find it so hard to keep their feet moving and not give up on the play?

I think its a combo of frustration coupled with trying to learn a new system on the fly. Perhaps a trade will be a wakeup call; however I would caution patience and see what effect a week of solid practice has. Lets face it, there is NO deal thats going to be made that will instantly make this team a contender, so would exercising a little patience and restraint really be a bad thing?

Give them a few more weeks under Berube before making any deals and don't part with young talent, picks or prospects unless you are either getting young talent or a proven #1 dman back. Don't rush into a bad deal!

- BiggE


I think it's frustration and a complete lack of confidence. Along with a lot of bad habits that were allowed to fester under Laviolette. I think making a big trade now would be a mistake.
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Oct 18 @ 6:13 PM ET
I think it's frustration and a complete lack of confidence. Along with a lot of bad habits that were allowed to fester under Laviolette. I think making a big trade now would be a mistake.
- MJL


I agree, don't rush into a bad deal.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Oct 18 @ 6:14 PM ET
I disagree completely that the development of B Schenn and Couturier will not offset was lost. That is an unknown at this point. Define what a productive forward is. Look at team's around the League. Go back to the last full regular Season for perspective. Show me how may teams had 9 productive forwards? Pittsburgh is one of the top teams in the League. Who are the 9 productive forwards for the Pens?

This team didn't show the World what it was last year. They were poorly Coached and that has carried over to this Season.

There's a lot of reasons why a team doesn't score. And talent is not always the answer. This team has one of the more talented forward groups in the NHL. But talent isn't enough.

Numbers don't lie. But the reasons why the numbers are like that has to be interpreted. And that's where mistakes are being made. There are results, and there are what causes the results.

And yes, if this team fixes the issues that they have, they absolutely can score 3 goals a game.

- MJL


See what I mean?

One guy has deluded himself so much that the Flyers' every move is golden, he keeps equating his OPINION that the Flyers have "one of the more talented forward groups in the NHL" against the statistical FACT that this team finished 25th in the league at even strength scoring -- which is the ultimate indicator of talent in professional hockey.

There isn't a single team in this league right now, NOT ONE, who has a losing record if they are at 1.00 or higher at even strength differential.

That is 16 teams. Two more teams are at .93 or above. They also have winning records.

But one guy keeps telling us all that the ONE TEAM that is 27th in the league in even-strength scoring -- above only fellow bottom-feeders Washington, Buffalo, and the Rangers -- has enough talent.

His opinion -- which he can't bear to be wrong about -- keeps running into those pesky little things called FACTS.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Oct 18 @ 6:15 PM ET
I agree, don't rush into a bad deal.
- BiggE


Get Lecavalier back, and hopefully Hartnell soon. And come back from the break and give it hell.
flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

Oct 18 @ 6:17 PM ET
I will say this.

No matter what we all want to happen, who we blame, defend, whatever have you. We all hope that they turn the poop around, but realistically I do doubt that.

As fans, I think we all see what will happen here. They are in a re-build, and it will take time. The organization can rush it, with moves that will probably catch up with them, and leave the team competative but not really good enough to win, as we are all familiar with.

The Flyers, I do believe... We will back. It will probably take a few years of rough play. They will get some top tier talent in the draft.

All at the end of the day we have to hope for, is that the organization has learned from its mistakes. Thats where my biggest doubts lie, but where optimism does have to shine through. Otherwise why be a fan?

I look forward to the day where they dominate once again, and that respect is earned back.
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Oct 18 @ 6:22 PM ET
Get Lecavalier back, and hopefully Hartnell soon. And come back from the break and give it hell.
- MJL

Hopefully they will leave Raffl and McGinn in the lineup, I'd be happy with the following lines when and if everyone is healthy:
Hartnell-G-Voracek
Schenn-VL-Simmonds
McGinn or Raffl-Coots-Read
McGinn or Raffl-Talbot-Rinaldo

Adam Hall does a nice job on pk but his lack of any offense whatsoever is just not acceptable to me. I'd rather have Rinaldo's energy in the lineup.
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Oct 18 @ 6:23 PM ET
I will say this.

No matter what we all want to happen, who we blame, defend, whatever have you. We all hope that they turn the poop around, but realistically I do doubt that.

As fans, I think we all see what will happen here. They are in a re-build, and it will take time. The organization can rush it, with moves that will probably catch up with them, and leave the team competative but not really good enough to win, as we are all familiar with.

The Flyers, I do believe... We will back. It will probably take a few years of rough play. They will get some top tier talent in the draft.

All at the end of the day we have to hope for, is that the organization has learned from its mistakes. Thats where my biggest doubts lie, but where optimism does have to shine through. Otherwise why be a fan?

I look forward to the day where they dominate once again, and that respect is earned back.

- flyer_nutter

Winning
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Put in Matt Read
Joined: 03.29.2011

Oct 18 @ 6:23 PM ET
Ron Hextall for GM
Terry Murray for HEAD COACH
flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

Oct 18 @ 6:23 PM ET

- BiggE

Even those of us who piss on them the most, more than anything want to see them win.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Oct 18 @ 6:24 PM ET
See what I mean?

One guy has deluded himself so much that the Flyers' every move is golden, he keeps equating his OPINION that the Flyers have "one of the more talented forward groups in the NHL" against the statistical FACT that this team finished 25th in the league at even strength scoring -- which is the ultimate indicator of talent in professional hockey.

There isn't a single team in this league right now, NOT ONE, who has a losing record if they are at 1.00 or higher at even strength differential.

That is 16 teams. Two more teams are at .93 or above. They also have winning records.

But one guy keeps telling us all that the ONE TEAM that is 27th in the league in even-strength scoring -- above only fellow bottom-feeders Washington, Buffalo, and the Rangers -- has enough talent.

His opinion -- which he can't bear to be wrong about -- keeps running into those pesky little things called FACTS.

- AllInForFlyers


Really, where did I discuss every move the Flyers make as being golden? If you want to look at numbers, we can do that. And I'll show you with numbers that they do have one of the more talented groups of forwards in the League. I'll back up my opinion.

You keep referencing the number of goals that are being scored, and think that it's black and white. If you're not scoring, that means that you lack talent. Not always the case, and it's certainly not the case with this team.

What facts can you provide that unequivocally states that the reason why the Flyers aren't scoring, is because they lack talent? I'll answer it for you, none!

And I'll give you a prime example. Claude Giroux has zero goals in 8 games! That must mean he doesn't have any talent! LOL

You see it all the time in the NHL. A talented proven offensive player goes into a funk and long slump. How does that happen? Does that player lose his talent? Does it seep out of his body? Or is it because he stops working hard and going to the dangerous areas of the ice? Or because he stops going to the net hard and in general, stops doing what he was doing when he's successful? And then through coaching and other means of finding his game, the goals start coming again. He must have found his talent again! Maybe he left at home under the bed, and just wasn't bringing his talent to the rink!

Bring the facts and prove me wrong. I'll bring the facts that point out that the Flyers have a talented group of forwards. And one of the deeper corps of offensive forwards in the League.
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Oct 18 @ 6:28 PM ET
Read looks good out there??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? : No offense, everyone is entitled to their opinion but Omg! READ LOOKS GOOD
- SMS4016

Yes. Hilarious.

He looks laughably terrible. So much so that you think a team will part with a top 15 pick for him.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Oct 18 @ 6:28 PM ET
Even those of us who piss on them the most, more than anything want to see them win.
- flyer_nutter


That's the thing -- I'm not pissing on this team. I simply look at what I see on the ice, then check numbers to see if it is an illusion or not.

They could get good in a hurry, if they inject skilled players into the lineup. They really could. The team defense isn't sexy, but it's solid. Steve Mason has given them the goaltending.

If they were somehow able to inserted two scoring forwards into this lineup, you basically have the 2011-2012 team -- with better goaltending.

Where do those scoring forwards come from? Well, we can wait and draft them. We can move Scott Laughton and picks for them. Or wait and sign them in free agency.

But little will change until we add them -- and then assess how much the loss of a clearly-aging Kimmo Timonen hurts us, now and going forward.
flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

Oct 18 @ 6:28 PM ET
Hopefully they will leave Raffl and McGinn in the lineup, I'd be happy with the following lines when and if everyone is healthy:
Hartnell-G-Voracek
Schenn-VL-Simmonds
McGinn or Raffl-Coots-Read
McGinn or Raffl-Talbot-Rinaldo

Adam Hall does a nice job on pk but his lack of any offense whatsoever is just not acceptable to me. I'd rather have Rinaldo's energy in the lineup.

- BiggE


Good topic. For me, organizationally they have to realise that they arent winning jack poop. As well as give the coach an option of diving ice time based on play. Which I do not for a second think Lava was really given with such a big "win now" mentality.

The time has come to build a proper identity, and culture. I could care less if Berube doesnt even know what a hockey system is. The identity, culture, and work ethic has to be first.

I go primarily with those who have earned their time.

McGinn-Lecav-Read
bSchenn-Coots-Raffl
Hartnell-G-Voracek
Simmonds-Talbot-Rinaldo



SMS4016
Joined: 01.27.2011

Oct 18 @ 6:29 PM ET
How about when the core of this team eliminated the Pens, who had 2 elite players?
- MJL

F-l-e-u-r-y
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Oct 18 @ 6:31 PM ET
Get Lecavalier back, and hopefully Hartnell soon. And come back from the break and give it hell.
- MJL

I do think getting Vinny back will be a big boost. But I honestly dont know what to expect from Hartnell anymore.
SMS4016
Joined: 01.27.2011

Oct 18 @ 6:32 PM ET
See what I mean?

One guy has deluded himself so much that the Flyers' every move is golden, he keeps equating his OPINION that the Flyers have "one of the more talented forward groups in the NHL" against the statistical FACT that this team finished 25th in the league at even strength scoring -- which is the ultimate indicator of talent in professional hockey.

There isn't a single team in this league right now, NOT ONE, who has a losing record if they are at 1.00 or higher at even strength differential.

That is 16 teams. Two more teams are at .93 or above. They also have winning records.

But one guy keeps telling us all that the ONE TEAM that is 27th in the league in even-strength scoring -- above only fellow bottom-feeders Washington, Buffalo, and the Rangers -- has enough talent.

His opinion -- which he can't bear to be wrong about -- keeps running into those pesky little things called FACTS.

- AllInForFlyers

AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Oct 18 @ 6:33 PM ET
Really, where did I discuss every move the Flyers make as being golden? If you want to look at numbers, we can do that. And I'll show you with numbers that they do have one of the more talented groups of forwards in the League. I'll back up my opinion.

You keep referencing the number of goals that are being scored, and think that it's black and white. If you're not scoring, that means that you lack talent. Not always the case, and it's certainly not the case with this team.

What facts can you provide that unequivocally states that the reason why the Flyers aren't scoring, is because they lack talent? I'll answer it for you, none!

And I'll give you a prime example. Claude Giroux has zero goals in 8 games! That must mean he doesn't have any talent! LOL

You see it all the time in the NHL. A talented proven offensive player goes into a funk and long slump. How does that happen? Does that player lose his talent? Does it seep out of his body? Or is it because he stops working hard and going to the dangerous areas of the ice? Or because he stops going to the net hard and in general, stops doing what he was doing when he's successful? And then through coaching and other means of finding his game, the goals start coming again. He must have found his talent again! Maybe he left at home under the bed, and just wasn't bringing his talent to the rink!

Bring the facts and prove me wrong. I'll bring the facts that point out that the Flyers have a talented group of forwards. And one of the deeper corps of offensive forwards in the League.

- MJL


Or maybe that talented player like Claude Giroux is playing with less-talented players than Jaromir Jagr, or players who are regressing after a career season that Scott Hartnell had in 2011-2012, who are "black-holing" his skill.

Or maybe that talented player like Sean Couturier, who mostly played with Wayne Simmonds, Jakub Voracek and Matt Read when he scored 13 goals, is now anchored with Maxime Talbot.

Because that's actually what's happening.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Oct 18 @ 6:33 PM ET
That's the thing -- I'm not pissing on this team. I simply look at what I see on the ice, then check numbers to see if it is an illusion or not.

They could get good in a hurry, if they inject skilled players into the lineup. They really could. The team defense isn't sexy, but it's solid. Steve Mason has given them the goaltending.

If they were somehow able to inserted two scoring forwards into this lineup, you basically have the 2011-2012 team -- with better goaltending.

Where do those scoring forwards come from? Well, we can wait and draft them. We can move Scott Laughton and picks for them. Or wait and sign them in free agency.

But little will change until we add them -- and then assess how much the loss of a clearly-aging Kimmo Timonen hurts us, now and going forward.

- AllInForFlyers


There are boatloads of things that can change without adding any offensive players. Adding more players is not the solution. That is not going to fix this team's issues. It's a band aid.
flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

Oct 18 @ 6:34 PM ET
That's the thing -- I'm not pissing on this team. I simply look at what I see on the ice, then check numbers to see if it is an illusion or not.

They could get good in a hurry, if they inject skilled players into the lineup. They really could. The team defense isn't sexy, but it's solid. Steve Mason has given them the goaltending.

If they were somehow able to inserted two scoring forwards into this lineup, you basically have the 2011-2012 team -- with better goaltending.

Where do those scoring forwards come from? Well, we can wait and draft them. We can move Scott Laughton and picks for them. Or wait and sign them in free agency.

But little will change until we add them -- and then assess how much the loss of a clearly-aging Kimmo Timonen hurts us, now and going forward.

- AllInForFlyers


I differ a bit with you there man. I think that defense is as much of a concern as anything else on the team.

Not one guy is a threat from that back end as of now. In a transition game or goals. Not (frank)ing one. They give the forwards very little support on the rush, cant hit a barn door with the puck, and that team speed? The forwards have to hang back like morons to wait for the D to skate.

They have no threat from the back end, and its painful to watch.

In terms of forwards one of the big lessons I hope they learned is to screen the players better that they bring in. While a guy like Zherdev for example can score, he will also (frank) you more often than naught with poopty defensive play. While a guy like Simmonds is supposed to have grit and a good net presence, he will kill you with defensive play. Same goes for a guy like Hartnell.

WHoever they bring in, and especially if they want those pieces to play a big part on the team they have to make sure they are well rounded players. Too many guys on this team are not. More than anything, evaluate and focus on work ethic. Bringing in guys with a questionable work ethic (Yakupov) will lead to disaster imo.

AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Oct 18 @ 6:35 PM ET
There are boatloads of things that can change without adding any offensive players. Adding more players is not the solution. That is not going to fix this team's issues. It's a band aid.
- MJL


The numbers are what they are. Their performance stands for itself.
flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

Oct 18 @ 6:38 PM ET
I do think getting Vinny back will be a big boost. But I honestly dont know what to expect from Hartnell anymore.
- hereticpride


Hartnell should be out on his ass. Another good "Mr. Consistency".

Most infuriating thing? For a guy that is apparently supposed to be tough, good along the boards, and have a great net presence.

He plays softer and dumber than Moen on most nights. This organization has a habit of paying far too much money, and in turn hanging too much hope on inconsistent players that dont initiate enough.

Too much "secondary" on the crew.

Hartnell is one of the first guys I look to deal, in the "right" deal.
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Oct 18 @ 6:38 PM ET
I differ a bit with you there man. I think that defense is as much of a concern as anything else on the team.

Not one guy is a threat from that back end as of now. In a transition game or goals. Not (frank)ing one. They give the forwards very little support on the rush, cant hit a barn door with the puck, and that team speed? The forwards have to hang back like morons to wait for the D to skate.

They have no threat from the back end, and its painful to watch.

In terms of forwards one of the big lessons I hope they learned is to screen the players better that they bring in. While a guy like Zherdev for example can score, he will also (frank) you more often than naught with poopty defensive play. While a guy like Simmonds is supposed to have grit and a good net presence, he will kill you with defensive play. Same goes for a guy like Hartnell.

WHoever they bring in, and especially if they want those pieces to play a big part on the team they have to make sure they are well rounded players. Too many guys on this team are not. More than anything, evaluate and focus on work ethic. Bringing in guys with a questionable work ethic (Yakupov) will lead to disaster imo.

- flyer_nutter


The defense is a concern, because of the lack of speed and skill -- but replacing defensemen is hard as hell. That's why I said that Chris Pronger's loss...it's staggering, how much that still means.

But they could fake it with more offense. It'd be a team with a ceiling like they had in 2011-2012, where a good team can hem them in and take advantage of the inevitable miscues that lesser defensemen would make.

But they'd score more, win more. I have no doubt of that.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Oct 18 @ 6:38 PM ET
Or maybe that talented player like Claude Giroux is playing with less-talented players than Jaromir Jagr, or players who are regressing after a career season that Scott Hartnell had in 2011-2012, who are "black-holing" his skill.

Or maybe that talented player like Sean Couturier, who mostly played with Wayne Simmonds, Jakub Voracek and Matt Read when he scored 13 goals, is now anchored with Maxime Talbot.

Because that's actually what's happening.

- AllInForFlyers


No such thing as a player's skill being "black holed". Watch how Giroux is playing. And tell me that it's about who his line mates are. Couturier has been one of the team's best players. Giroux is playing how he is because of one player, and one player only. That's Giroux.

I've asked this question to you multiple times. And I know you won't answer it. Tell me what team has the offensive depth that you state that is needed?

In the 11/12 NHL Season, which is the last full Season played for perspective. There was one team that had 6 20 goals scorers at forward. One! That's it! Most have 4 good offensive players if their lucky. Some have a little more. The Flyers do not have a sniper. But they have plenty of offensive depth. They simply need to start doing the things that score goals in this league.
-davies-
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: A medical emergency involving you.
Joined: 08.05.2013

Oct 18 @ 6:38 PM ET
You know, it's funny. Because it's not like I want to say the stuff I do about this team -- I said it last night, but I'm surprised they've been this bad. And if Bradley were around today, he'd be able to clarify a bit of what I'm about to say, because as he points out, the shooting percentages of the Flyers are extremely low -- where he and I disagree is if that is sustainable. The Flyers have some deep-seated problems and its personnel-based.

Whatever blame anybody wants to assign, or however patient anybody wants to be with the personnel, that's up to them. But this roster, these players, are playing almost identically with how they were last year.

The one exception: The power play, which covered up some of the rot on this roster, isn't working.

Some numbers:
2009/2010: 2.83 GF/2.71 GA; .97 5v5; 21.4 PP/83 PK; 31.6 SF/28.6 SA
2010/2011: 3.12 GF/2.63 GA; 1.21 5v5; 16.6 PP/82.8 PK; 31.8 SF/30.1 SA
2011/2012: 3.17 GF/2.74 GA; 1.13 5v5; 19.7 PP/81.8 PK; 32.2 SF/28.4 SA
2012/2013: 2.75 GF/2.90 GA; .86 5v5; 21.6 PP/85.9 PK; 29 SF/28.6 SA
2013/2014: 1.38 GF/3.0 GA; .53 5v5; 9.1 PP/81.6 PK; 27.6 SF/31.0 SA

So. What are we looking at here?

A team that is regressing in all the ways that teams that do not have enough talent tend to do: at even strength, and with shots taken/allowed.

The 2011/2012 season, with Jaromir Jagr and JVR and Matt Carle, and therefore enough depth to have Maxime Talbot on the fourth line, was a pretty damn good team. Ed Snider was likely correct: If Chris Pronger hadn't gotten hurt, they might've figured out a way to beat New Jersey in the playoffs. Maybe not...but they would've had a decent chance.

What we've seen from this team since is a simple failure to adequately replace lost talent. It is that simple. It has nothing to do with effort, or hard work or any of the other stuff that people try to equate with talent.

Last year, minus Chris Pronger and Matt Carle for the entire season and Carle's replacement in the lineup being the acquisition of Luke Schenn and a combination of Bruno Gervais/Kurtis Foster replacing Andreas Lilja as the No. 7 defenseman, plus the loss of Jagr and JVR, the Flyers lost almost half-a-goal of effectiveness at even strength -- and even more alarmingly, generated three fewer shots per game.

That is nothing more complex than talent departing and not being replaced. It is not any more difficult than that. No franchise would overcome that.

They did replace Daniel Briere with Vincent Lecavalier for this season and upgraded the skill of the defense with the addition of Mark Streit.

But they still haven't replaced Jagr and JVR -- and now the power play isn't hiding anything.

They can't score at even strength. Now they're generating even fewer shots AND allowing three more per game.

I keep getting questioned by one guy in particular who keeps telling me that this team is talented enough.

It is not. That's not my opinion. This is statistical fact.

This team showed the world what it was last year. The reason we are last in the league right now is because the power play is no longer hiding the fact that we can't score at even strength.

This team needs MORE TALENT. To replace the Top 6 forward production we got from Jaromir Jagr, and the scoring the JVR provided then and would have provided going forward.

I won't even start on the defense, because Chris Pronger is not replaceable. He cannot be replaced. They can add more skill, and should. But that is likely to come in the draft.

But this team is what it is. The development of Brayden Schenn and Sean Couturier will not offset what was lost -- because you still need nine productive forwards and a fourth line that can contribute.

I would hope that people who honestly think that there's no insight into my posts...just take a look at the numbers. They aren't lying to you. As currently constructed, this team isn't going to magically start scoring three goals per game. Because they can't.

- AllInForFlyers



you may need to relax. honestly i appreciate anyone putting that much thought into things, but you seem like your anger has gone overboard. take a breath. your thoughts on the team have more value, imo, when you just take a moment and don't get so upset/sure.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Oct 18 @ 6:39 PM ET
The numbers are what they are. Their performance stands for itself.
- AllInForFlyers


The numbers are what they are. But it's looking at why the numbers are what they are that is important. It's not a lack of talent.
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