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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Flyers Come Up Small in Measuring Stick Game
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SMS4016
Joined: 01.27.2011

Oct 18 @ 5:25 PM ET
I certainly agree with the latter.
- MJL

Who the hell is even running the pp anyways. Lappy?
SMS4016
Joined: 01.27.2011

Oct 18 @ 5:28 PM ET
So who wins a Little/Byfuglien for V and Coburn?
- jstross

JimS steaks? Genos? Pats?
SMS4016
Joined: 01.27.2011

Oct 18 @ 5:32 PM ET
Totally Coburn's fault. A REAL defenseman would have made the save, and then done an end-to-end rush, scored a goal, and then suplexed the entire Penguins team.
- jmatchett383

You joke but that's exactly what #4 Bobby Orr would do
Winning
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Put in Matt Read
Joined: 03.29.2011

Oct 18 @ 5:33 PM ET
Evander Kane or bust
flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

Oct 18 @ 5:37 PM ET
I think we all agree that the veterans on this team, and many on the D should be moved around the deadline. You cannot in, any way, shape or form defend that back end. Highest paid in the NHL for a bunch of mediocrity.

While I think many of us preach patience, there is a line there.

Aside from Giroux, Read and Voracek. Is the rest of that young core really something you want to build around? Are they going to be good enough players?

Now... On one hand its early in their career and players develop different. On the other hand, I will openly say (I know this view isnt the favourite), that I think they are overrated in general.

I wouldnt be throwing any of this young core away, especially not for over the hill veterans. However if a deal comes across that has the opportunity to bring in better talent, or improve the team. I do not hesitate. That "young core" is not untouchable to me anymore under the right circumstances, and if I am Holmgren, I call around.

Its not the popular opinion, but I do not think this young core is good enough. I think its foolish to compare them to the Hawks of a few years ago. I'd like to keep them around, but if a good deal comes up...

Edit: A core is the foundation of an NHL team. It cannot be mediocre, it has to be one of the best to win the cup. I do not think, even if certain players hit that top end of "potential" this current one is good enough. They need ELITE. A few years of sucking, while hard, may be what this organization truly needs. They have avoided that for a while, but its about to fist them up the ass.
SMS4016
Joined: 01.27.2011

Oct 18 @ 5:38 PM ET
Like we don't already have a couple of players that are universally despised outside of Philly? Hartnell and Rinaldo come to mind.

Now, here's the real question... if trading Giroux, Voracek, Simmonds, Schenn, Morin, Laughton, Mason, Hagg and Couturier for Sidney Crosby would guarantee the Flyers a Cup.... could you watch the Cup celebration w/o vomiting all over yourself?

- Tomahawk

You had me at " guarantee a cup"
SMS4016
Joined: 01.27.2011

Oct 18 @ 5:41 PM ET
Nutter you sound like me. Better be careful.
flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

Oct 18 @ 5:44 PM ET
Nutter you sound like me. Better be careful.
- SMS4016


Meh, we all have our thoughts.

I think we all agree on the D, and dealing veterans around the deadline.

Where I go further, is with all this "potential" of guys other than Read/G/Voracek.

Honestly? I see it, but its not at the point where I would consider them untouchable under the right deals. There is mediocrity throughout this lineup, and if a good deal comes along. I have zero issue moving the young pieces. I question them, more than anything else on this team.
flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

Oct 18 @ 5:46 PM ET
The one thing we havent talked out.

Assuming they are sellers, who do we overpay for in FA
SMS4016
Joined: 01.27.2011

Oct 18 @ 5:47 PM ET
Just curious... If we start getting offers for multi players for high pick deals, do we accept? Say we were offered coburn/read for pick # 13 1st round and Another team offers like hartnell or simmonds/mez for #10 1st round do we accept? Are at that point yet? What if season looks like we are getting top 3 pick in a few months? So say we'd have picks 3,10,13 and lose hartnell, read, coburn, mez. With our farm system do go that route? I think this could become a realistic question home trade deadline time
AllInForFlyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Call Me Sweetcheeks
Joined: 03.18.2013

Oct 18 @ 5:49 PM ET
We'll see... I hope it's the former and a few tweaks by the coach and to the players will sort everything out.

I have to admit, the longer this futility drags on, the more I'm starting to see the logic behind AllInForFlyers' argument that this team just isn't as talented as everybody thought.

- Tomahawk


You know, it's funny. Because it's not like I want to say the stuff I do about this team -- I said it last night, but I'm surprised they've been this bad. And if Bradley were around today, he'd be able to clarify a bit of what I'm about to say, because as he points out, the shooting percentages of the Flyers are extremely low -- where he and I disagree is if that is sustainable. The Flyers have some deep-seated problems and its personnel-based.

Whatever blame anybody wants to assign, or however patient anybody wants to be with the personnel, that's up to them. But this roster, these players, are playing almost identically with how they were last year.

The one exception: The power play, which covered up some of the rot on this roster, isn't working.

Some numbers:
2009/2010: 2.83 GF/2.71 GA; .97 5v5; 21.4 PP/83 PK; 31.6 SF/28.6 SA
2010/2011: 3.12 GF/2.63 GA; 1.21 5v5; 16.6 PP/82.8 PK; 31.8 SF/30.1 SA
2011/2012: 3.17 GF/2.74 GA; 1.13 5v5; 19.7 PP/81.8 PK; 32.2 SF/28.4 SA
2012/2013: 2.75 GF/2.90 GA; .86 5v5; 21.6 PP/85.9 PK; 29 SF/28.6 SA
2013/2014: 1.38 GF/3.0 GA; .53 5v5; 9.1 PP/81.6 PK; 27.6 SF/31.0 SA

So. What are we looking at here?

A team that is regressing in all the ways that teams that do not have enough talent tend to do: at even strength, and with shots taken/allowed.

The 2011/2012 season, with Jaromir Jagr and JVR and Matt Carle, and therefore enough depth to have Maxime Talbot on the fourth line, was a pretty damn good team. Ed Snider was likely correct: If Chris Pronger hadn't gotten hurt, they might've figured out a way to beat New Jersey in the playoffs. Maybe not...but they would've had a decent chance.

What we've seen from this team since is a simple failure to adequately replace lost talent. It is that simple. It has nothing to do with effort, or hard work or any of the other stuff that people try to equate with talent.

Last year, minus Chris Pronger and Matt Carle for the entire season and Carle's replacement in the lineup being the acquisition of Luke Schenn and a combination of Bruno Gervais/Kurtis Foster replacing Andreas Lilja as the No. 7 defenseman, plus the loss of Jagr and JVR, the Flyers lost almost half-a-goal of effectiveness at even strength -- and even more alarmingly, generated three fewer shots per game.

That is nothing more complex than talent departing and not being replaced. It is not any more difficult than that. No franchise would overcome that.

They did replace Daniel Briere with Vincent Lecavalier for this season and upgraded the skill of the defense with the addition of Mark Streit.

But they still haven't replaced Jagr and JVR -- and now the power play isn't hiding anything.

They can't score at even strength. Now they're generating even fewer shots AND allowing three more per game.

I keep getting questioned by one guy in particular who keeps telling me that this team is talented enough.

It is not. That's not my opinion. This is statistical fact.

This team showed the world what it was last year. The reason we are last in the league right now is because the power play is no longer hiding the fact that we can't score at even strength.

This team needs MORE TALENT. To replace the Top 6 forward production we got from Jaromir Jagr, and the scoring the JVR provided then and would have provided going forward.

I won't even start on the defense, because Chris Pronger is not replaceable. He cannot be replaced. They can add more skill, and should. But that is likely to come in the draft.

But this team is what it is. The development of Brayden Schenn and Sean Couturier will not offset what was lost -- because you still need nine productive forwards and a fourth line that can contribute.

I would hope that people who honestly think that there's no insight into my posts...just take a look at the numbers. They aren't lying to you. As currently constructed, this team isn't going to magically start scoring three goals per game. Because they can't.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Oct 18 @ 5:50 PM ET
How is Patrick Roy, who was a goalie, doing it in Colorado?
- MJL


Apparently he has them all playing goalie.
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Oct 18 @ 5:50 PM ET
So who wins a Little/Byfuglien for V and Coburn?
- jstross

I think we do okay in it. Jake for Little is a bit of a wash in my opinion. I think is a little more talented offensively but Buff for Coburn is a strong move in the right direction for us.

Say what you will about Buff, he puts a ton of heavy shots on net. That aspect has been missing from our team for years and having that threat back there only opens up more space for the guys up front.
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Oct 18 @ 5:52 PM ET
Just curious... If we start getting offers for multi players for high pick deals, do we accept? Say we were offered coburn/read for pick # 13 1st round and Another team offers like hartnell or simmonds/mez for #10 1st round do we accept? Are at that point yet? What if season looks like we are getting top 3 pick in a few months? So say we'd have picks 3,10,13 and lose hartnell, read, coburn, mez. With our farm system do go that route? I think this could become a realistic question home trade deadline time
- SMS4016

Coburn might get you the 13th but there is no way in hell Hartnell or Simmonds and Mesz get you the 10th or anything in the top 20.

And I have zero interest in trading Read, He is one of the few forwards that looks decent out there.
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

Oct 18 @ 5:56 PM ET
The one thing we havent talked out.

Assuming they are sellers, who do we overpay for in FA

- flyer_nutter

Vanek & the Sedins will most likely be locked up before FA. Thornton will probably stay in SJ.

Gaborick, Cammalerri, and Heatly could very well be available. I would take Gaborick. Dont care much for the other two.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Oct 18 @ 5:56 PM ET
I think we all agree that the veterans on this team, and many on the D should be moved around the deadline. You cannot in, any way, shape or form defend that back end. Highest paid in the NHL for a bunch of mediocrity.

While I think many of us preach patience, there is a line there.

Aside from Giroux, Read and Voracek. Is the rest of that young core really something you want to build around? Are they going to be good enough players?

Now... On one hand its early in their career and players develop different. On the other hand, I will openly say (I know this view isnt the favourite), that I think they are overrated in general.

I wouldnt be throwing any of this young core away, especially not for over the hill veterans. However if a deal comes across that has the opportunity to bring in better talent, or improve the team. I do not hesitate. That "young core" is not untouchable to me anymore under the right circumstances, and if I am Holmgren, I call around.

Its not the popular opinion, but I do not think this young core is good enough. I think its foolish to compare them to the Hawks of a few years ago. I'd like to keep them around, but if a good deal comes up...

Edit: A core is the foundation of an NHL team. It cannot be mediocre, it has to be one of the best to win the cup. I do not think, even if certain players hit that top end of "potential" this current one is good enough. They need ELITE. A few years of sucking, while hard, may be what this organization truly needs. They have avoided that for a while, but its about to fist them up the ass.

- flyer_nutter


Some key points in where I think you're off base. You have no way of knowing if this core is good enough, simply because there are still too many unknowns about them. Couturier and Schenn for instance, have lots of room for growth. So stating that this core isn't good enough is just simply guessing and is reactionary based on the current status of how this team is playing. And I think guessing that this core isn't going to be good enough is what's foolish.
You name 3 players in Giroux, Voracek, and Read, and give them a pass on criticism in this post. Giroux and Voracek right now, are the biggest problem! B Schenn and Couturier are playing strong Hockey!

As far as the defense is concerned, we knew coming into this Season that the mix was wrong. Individually they're all solid defenseman. Some aren't playing like it currently, but all are solid. I think they have one too many stay at home physical type in the lineup. They need to tweak that mix.
flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

Oct 18 @ 5:56 PM ET
You know, it's funny. .....
- AllInForFlyers


Damn good post.

I wouldnt even go as far as saying they lost so much talent in Jagr, JVR and Carle. While a big hit, they were hoping it would be offset by the development of bSchenn and Coots primarily.

Where my poop comes in, is while I do think some of the pieces on this "young forward core" are good, I do not think they are anywhere close to having the level of elite talent that will be required.

Even if Coots, bSchenn hit this magical "potential".

They have a way to go, and getting some top tier talent from the draft for a few years would be magical. You hate to see them lose, but they also but themselves in this position so I have no sympathy there. What I DO NOT want, is to strap the team down with aging overpaid players that will hurt the ability to re-sign pieces of that young core in the future.
flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

Oct 18 @ 5:58 PM ET
I think we do okay in it. Jake for Little is a bit of a wash in my opinion. I think is a little more talented offensively but Buff for Coburn is a strong move in the right direction for us.

Say what you will about Buff, he puts a ton of heavy shots on net. That aspect has been missing from our team for years and having that threat back there only opens up more space for the guys up front.

- hereticpride


I am okay in trading for Buff.

However it better not include any of the young pieces or Read.

-davies-
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: A medical emergency involving you.
Joined: 08.05.2013

Oct 18 @ 6:00 PM ET
I don't want to lose Voracek, but Little is a really solid player.

I do want to lose Braindead Coburn, but Byfuglien is obviously risky.

If that was the trade it could definitely work out provided Buff kept his weight down and his head on straight. He had 6 points in 7 games and is +1 playing 25 minutes a night. The Flyers really could use a defenseman with those stats.

- Feanor



anyone who trades jake for little shall die by my sword
SMS4016
Joined: 01.27.2011

Oct 18 @ 6:01 PM ET
I absolutely love people coming around to the fact that these players are a little over rated. I've been harping this since 3 weeks into the lockout season. If you truly look back even further to the last 2 times we were eliminated in playoffs you can tell. Now that said they are good but I don't see the elite in them at all. Outside of g who I refuse to fully judge without a true #1 winger. Not hartnell and Jake with their career years. Jake looks bad. He's best as a playmaker. He's not an elite scorer. I understand why Philly wanted him to shoot more ( because he was always looking pass) but theyre not going to make him gaborik. It's going to be interesting to see what they decide to do.
-davies-
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: A medical emergency involving you.
Joined: 08.05.2013

Oct 18 @ 6:04 PM ET
take the boys for a walk along rue Sainte-Catherine
- Crimsoninja



flyer_nutter
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Unleash the Peanuts, MB
Joined: 10.16.2008

Oct 18 @ 6:04 PM ET
I absolutely love people coming around to the fact that these players are a little over rated. I've been harping this since 3 weeks into the lockout season. If you truly look back even further to the last 2 times we were eliminated in playoffs you can tell. Now that said they are good but I don't see the elite in them at all. Outside of g who I refuse to fully judge without a true #1 winger. Not hartnell and Jake with their career years. Jake looks bad. He's best as a playmaker. He's not an elite scorer. I understand why Philly wanted him to shoot more ( because he was always looking pass) but theyre not going to make him gaborik. It's going to be interesting to see what they decide to do.
- SMS4016


Realistically?

The writing is on the wall in many areas. I think Holmgren will be out on his ass. The draft being in Philly, Hextall will have a chance to bring the team back as was done after the season that shall not be named.

In terms of trades? We will see if they have learned. However the two biggest things I could see happening is a deal for either Yandle or Vanek. To a degree I would be okay with either. However I'd have to see whats going the other way, and would have really strong reservations in dealing pieces of that young core, even though I do believe as a mix they are overrated to begin with.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Oct 18 @ 6:04 PM ET
You know, it's funny. Because it's not like I want to say the stuff I do about this team -- I said it last night, but I'm surprised they've been this bad. And if Bradley were around today, he'd be able to clarify a bit of what I'm about to say, because as he points out, the shooting percentages of the Flyers are extremely low -- where he and I disagree is if that is sustainable. The Flyers have some deep-seated problems and its personnel-based.

Whatever blame anybody wants to assign, or however patient anybody wants to be with the personnel, that's up to them. But this roster, these players, are playing almost identically with how they were last year.

The one exception: The power play, which covered up some of the rot on this roster, isn't working.

Some numbers:
2009/2010: 2.83 GF/2.71 GA; .97 5v5; 21.4 PP/83 PK; 31.6 SF/28.6 SA
2010/2011: 3.12 GF/2.63 GA; 1.21 5v5; 16.6 PP/82.8 PK; 31.8 SF/30.1 SA
2011/2012: 3.17 GF/2.74 GA; 1.13 5v5; 19.7 PP/81.8 PK; 32.2 SF/28.4 SA
2012/2013: 2.75 GF/2.90 GA; .86 5v5; 21.6 PP/85.9 PK; 29 SF/28.6 SA
2013/2014: 1.38 GF/3.0 GA; .53 5v5; 9.1 PP/81.6 PK; 27.6 SF/31.0 SA

So. What are we looking at here?

A team that is regressing in all the ways that teams that do not have enough talent tend to do: at even strength, and with shots taken/allowed.

The 2011/2012 season, with Jaromir Jagr and JVR and Matt Carle, and therefore enough depth to have Maxime Talbot on the fourth line, was a pretty damn good team. Ed Snider was likely correct: If Chris Pronger hadn't gotten hurt, they might've figured out a way to beat New Jersey in the playoffs. Maybe not...but they would've had a decent chance.

What we've seen from this team since is a simple failure to adequately replace lost talent. It is that simple. It has nothing to do with effort, or hard work or any of the other stuff that people try to equate with talent.

Last year, minus Chris Pronger and Matt Carle for the entire season and Carle's replacement in the lineup being the acquisition of Luke Schenn and a combination of Bruno Gervais/Kurtis Foster replacing Andreas Lilja as the No. 7 defenseman, plus the loss of Jagr and JVR, the Flyers lost almost half-a-goal of effectiveness at even strength -- and even more alarmingly, generated three fewer shots per game.

That is nothing more complex than talent departing and not being replaced. It is not any more difficult than that. No franchise would overcome that.

They did replace Daniel Briere with Vincent Lecavalier for this season and upgraded the skill of the defense with the addition of Mark Streit.

But they still haven't replaced Jagr and JVR -- and now the power play isn't hiding anything.

They can't score at even strength. Now they're generating even fewer shots AND allowing three more per game.

I keep getting questioned by one guy in particular who keeps telling me that this team is talented enough.

It is not. That's not my opinion. This is statistical fact.

This team showed the world what it was last year. The reason we are last in the league right now is because the power play is no longer hiding the fact that we can't score at even strength.

This team needs MORE TALENT. To replace the Top 6 forward production we got from Jaromir Jagr, and the scoring the JVR provided then and would have provided going forward.

I won't even start on the defense, because Chris Pronger is not replaceable. He cannot be replaced. They can add more skill, and should. But that is likely to come in the draft.

But this team is what it is. The development of Brayden Schenn and Sean Couturier will not offset what was lost -- because you still need nine productive forwards and a fourth line that can contribute.

I would hope that people who honestly think that there's no insight into my posts...just take a look at the numbers. They aren't lying to you. As currently constructed, this team isn't going to magically start scoring three goals per game. Because they can't.

- AllInForFlyers


I disagree completely that the development of B Schenn and Couturier will not offset was lost. That is an unknown at this point. Define what a productive forward is. Look at team's around the League. Go back to the last full regular Season for perspective. Show me how may teams had 9 productive forwards? Pittsburgh is one of the top teams in the League. Who are the 9 productive forwards for the Pens?

This team didn't show the World what it was last year. They were poorly Coached and that has carried over to this Season.

There's a lot of reasons why a team doesn't score. And talent is not always the answer. This team has one of the more talented forward groups in the NHL. But talent isn't enough.

Numbers don't lie. But the reasons why the numbers are like that has to be interpreted. And that's where mistakes are being made. There are results, and there are what causes the results.

And yes, if this team fixes the issues that they have, they absolutely can score 3 goals a game.
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Oct 18 @ 6:06 PM ET
You know what. On the Crosby goal, Crosby makes a good play and lifts his stick, and the puck squirts out. I've always considered defense a team game. Good defensive teams cover up for a turnover. Watch Luke Schenn on the play. Yea, Coburn turns it over, but go to the replay and watch exactly what Luke Schenn does on the play. And how he stops moving his feet, and gets himself completely out of position on the play, and is unable to do anything. Most goals there is more then one goat.
- MJL


Most of the whole damn team is guilty of this! For whatever reason they just stop skating and usually its at the worst possible time. Raffl, McGinn and Read stand out because they are always skating. Its not so much that individual players are slow, rather they are just making poor decisions. The million dollar question is why. Why do they find it so hard to keep their feet moving and not give up on the play?

I think its a combo of frustration coupled with trying to learn a new system on the fly. Perhaps a trade will be a wakeup call; however I would caution patience and see what effect a week of solid practice has. Lets face it, there is NO deal thats going to be made that will instantly make this team a contender, so would exercising a little patience and restraint really be a bad thing?

Give them a few more weeks under Berube before making any deals and don't part with young talent, picks or prospects unless you are either getting young talent or a proven #1 dman back. Don't rush into a bad deal!
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Oct 18 @ 6:09 PM ET
I absolutely love people coming around to the fact that these players are a little over rated. I've been harping this since 3 weeks into the lockout season. If you truly look back even further to the last 2 times we were eliminated in playoffs you can tell. Now that said they are good but I don't see the elite in them at all. Outside of g who I refuse to fully judge without a true #1 winger. Not hartnell and Jake with their career years. Jake looks bad. He's best as a playmaker. He's not an elite scorer. I understand why Philly wanted him to shoot more ( because he was always looking pass) but theyre not going to make him gaborik. It's going to be interesting to see what they decide to do.
- SMS4016


How about when the core of this team eliminated the Pens, who had 2 elite players?
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