That's their entire point, and they don't really do a good job at that.


Agreed about the faceoff points and recording actual time in each zone.
- burn

Compared to having no stat at all for possession they're ok lol. Better than nothing basically.

So people with statistics degrees that are into this stuff are wasting their time? Those analytics conferences are a waste of time? NHL teams hiring people for these purposes is a waste of time?

The same debate exsisted in baseball over this type of thing, why would hockey be any different?
- Talkshowhost

Actually, let me re-answer.

Those people with degrees still have some work to do I think. They may be on to something but, at best, the theories are incomplete and not reliable enough. There is more work to do yet in this area.

The sports are too different.

Compare hockey to basketball, where they're still looking for predictive stats. The interaction of 5 players, often different from one game to the next, make it virtually impossible. Baseball is a game of 1 on 1 confrontations, with huge sample sizes. And even with this they still don't try and make predictions based on the stats.
- djamon

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PECOTA

yes they do.

A year or two ago, I would have traded our roster for the Oilers. Well, I wouldn't have, but I would have strongly considered it.

Funny how a little patience changes everything. I wouldnt trade our roster with any team aside from Boston, LA, Chicago and Pitts.

Feel free to troll this post. I stand by it.
- Gunslinger

A think that Edmonton roster with a year or two of Burke/Nonis in charge would look a hell of a lot better than it currently does.

So people with statistics degrees that are into this stuff are wasting their time? Those analytics conferences are a waste of time? NHL teams hiring people for these purposes is a waste of time?

The same debate exsisted in baseball over this type of thing, why would hockey be any different?
- Talkshowhost

Because in baseball it works. It's logical. It's not the case in hockey. in baseball everyone was so into HR and power stats and RBI's ect that they overlooked OB% and the like. There is no such correlation in hockey.


taking a shot isnt indicative of possession.

I would say 2 words.

Unfortunately, it is too early to annoint Bernier as a premier goalie in this league or even as our #1. Gustavsson had a couple good stretches also.
- Aetherial

Agreed. I think people are getting too carried away. That said, it's his job to lose, for now. Reimer pooped the bed and Bernier cleaned up his mess last night. Doesn't make him our #1 locked down, but he has earned the right to start consecutive games now. It's only fair to the goalies to reward them for success and sit them if they stumble. Reimer stumbled...can't deny that.

Because in baseball it works. It's logical. It's not the case in hockey. in baseball everyone was so into HR and power stats and RBI's ect that they overlooked OB% and the like. There is no such correlation in hockey.


taking a shot isnt indicative of possession.
- burn

You have to have the puck to take a shot

A think that Edmonton roster with a year or two of Burke/Nonis in charge would look a hell of a lot better than it currently does.
- daeth

Very well said.

Is Power play one word or two? Powerplay. Power play. hmmm
- Gunslinger

so what youre saying is the leafs are quick and forced the opposition to take a penalty?

Agreed. I think people are getting too carried away. That said, it's his job to lose, for now. Reimer pooped the bed and Bernier cleaned up his mess last night. Doesn't make him our #1 locked down, but he has earned the right to start consecutive games now. It's only fair to the goalies to reward them for success and sit them if they stumble. Reimer stumbled...can't deny that.
- Gunslinger

Your right. The momentum will swing back and forth throughout the season.

Does Team B have Toskala in net?
- Leeman4Gilmour

damn loopholes!

You have to have the puck to take a shot
- Talkshowhost

right, but if you didnt take a shot you didnt have the puck, so says corsi.

theres the fly in the ointment.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PECOTA

yes they do.
- Talkshowhost

For individuals...not team results. That's kinda the whole point here...right?

You have to have the puck to take a shot
- Talkshowhost

Problem is, you have to beat the goalie to score a goal. Something Corsi and Fenway hide from you. Shooting the puck on Dubnyk is not the same as shooting the puck on Lundqvist. Something those stats don't tell you. Just like Gionta taking a shot on a goalie is not the same as Kessel taking a shot on the goalie. Something these stats dont include. Just saying. Shooting isn't the be all, end all of winning hockey games.

Your right. The momentum will swing back and forth throughout the season.
- Arctic_AARDVARK

The momentum of the team as a whole will go up and down.

It is concerning to me that they have been behind in all 3 games so far.

You have to have the puck to take a shot
- Talkshowhost

Taking a shot is actually the act of giving up possession. Must be why Grabs was so good at possession stats.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PECOTA

yes they do.
- Talkshowhost

Even though I think baseball is better for advanced stats they still don't have a great track record with their predictions. Look at this season.

Angels to win the west: nope
Detroit to win the central: yes
Yankees to win the east: nope
Wild card: Texas (missed playoffs), Red Sox (won division)

Dodgers to win the west: nope [edit, sorry, should say yes]
Reds to win central: nope
Nationals to win east: nope
Wild card: Giants, Cards&Dbacks (only cards made the playoffs)

Problem is, you have to beat the goalie to score a goal. Something Corsi and Fenway hide from you. Shooting the puck on Dubnyk is not the same as shooting the puck on Lundqvist. Something those stats don't tell you.
- Gunslinger

Which is why I agree that on very large sample sizes they can be meaningful. Good and bad goalies, and all other variables, tend to cancel each other out.

Their predictive ability in a small sample size, like a game or playoff series, or season series is far more questionable.

so what youre saying is the leafs are quick and forced the opposition to take a penalty?
- burn

That, of course. But also that roughly 25% of a teams scoring comes from the power play usually. Yet these "advanced stats" preclude such a noticeable portion of a teams productions. Seems rather....goofy ..to me.

Very well said.
- Gunslinger

They really need to get rid of Kevin Lowe.

Poor James Reimer. that .920 last season gets him no credit
- Talkshowhost

It will when we trade him

Why is everyone debating the importance of stats when you can watch the games and decipher for yourself?

How many wins do we have? 3. Losses? 0. A couple of guys out with injury, one out with a suspension.

I think we're doing okay for right now. We'll lose eventually but thats the NHL, we have 82 games for a reason. Long season boys.

I said it early. Im loving both those guys so far. Use their size and have some impressive hands. I hope they touch me. That would be nice.
- systemtool

They have soft hands but play rough

A year or two ago, I would have traded our roster for the Oilers. Well, I wouldn't have, but I would have strongly considered it.

Funny how a little patience changes everything. I wouldnt trade our roster with any team aside from Boston, LA, Chicago, Toronto and Pitts

Feel free to troll this post. I stand by it.
- Gunslinger

Very nice of you

Which is why I agree that on very large sample sizes they can be meaningful. Good and bad goalies, and all other variables, tend to cancel each other out.

Their predictive ability in a small sample size, like a game or playoff series, or season series is far more questionable.
- Aetherial

My point is that you could have great possesion stats, but if your goalie is pure junk you will not be successful. On the flip side, solid goaltending on your team will over come poor possesion stats. So they don't really cancel each other out, because im referring to each team as an individual and their ability to over come or ignore their advanced stats.