That would be foolish.
- djamon

I'd at least look at them

That doesn't take away the fact that shot differential ( fenwick not counting blocked shots) predicted the same thing
- Talkshowhost

ROFL, let's recap...

The predictive ability is challenged.

You provide something that shows the advanced stats predicted 15 of 16 playoff teams on Jan 26, 2012 or whatever it was,

I point out that the actual league standings at the time also predicted 15 of 16 playoff teams teams.

You don't even get the point that is being made here?

By the way... when this whole mess was started around here, by Yost, he brought up the same fact you did about the 2012 playoff prediction. I challenged it the same way.

You know what the rebuttal was from Yost and his minions?

Nothing. Nada. Zilch.

It has been brought up again since, and you know what the response was by the stats monkeys?

Nothing. Nada. Zilch.

... unfortunately, for you guys, that doesn't make the point go away.

- A_Tree

You know what else is funny? Who cares which goalie is in net for any team. They don't impact the game, and have nothing to do with players taking shots. Nothing at all. A team should have as good a chance to win whether Toskala is in net or Martin Brodeur in his prime. Its all about how many shots you take at them. The results won't vary, ever. Game, predicted.

He was worse than invisible. He was noticeably bad.
- david22

Very un-Karllson like for sure, JVR went by him like a peewee houseleaguer - must have been an off night.

Not the strongest in front of his net but usually positionally sound with great stick work.

I'd at least look at them
- Zezel

If you think they're predictive, then yeah. They haven't proven that yet though.

If you think they're predictive, then yeah. They haven't proven that yet though.
- djamon

I imagine that they are predictive over a very large sample set. Is there a solid enough cause and effect that has been proven for them to be useful for anything other than mild amusement?

If you think they're predictive, then yeah. They haven't proven that yet though.
- djamon

Mainly I'd look at them just because they tell you something about the team at least, but yeah they're just one part of a much bigger context.

Im starting to wet myself over him. Guy has been a beast for us so far. He also has good hands and speed for a big guy.
- systemtool

(frank)ing eh!,,,



Best leaf so far for sure

It is common knowledge to anybody who follows hockey that special teams play a big role in a teams failures and successes. That the game 5 on 5 produces only a portion of the overall scoring. The biggest portion, granted, but many goals come from special teams as well. These fenway, corsi and goonie goo goo stats completely ignore those variables and try to predict a teams ability to succeed without even bothering with them. Thats absurd, in my opinion.
- systemtool

OOOhh goonie goo goo!!! Haven't heard that in a while!!

I imagine that they are predictive over a very large sample set. Is there a solid enough cause and effect that has been proven for them to be useful for anything other than mild amusement?
- Aetherial

So people with statistics degrees that are into this stuff are wasting their time? Those analytics conferences are a waste of time? NHL teams hiring people for these purposes is a waste of time?

The same debate exsisted in baseball over this type of thing, why would hockey be any different?

I was impressed with Bolland showing some slick hands and skill last night, maybe the Leafs weren't kidding that he can hold his own playing top six shifts. He drives the net too, both he and JVR pop a lot front of the net.

They do an ok job at showing how a team does possession-wise. Not really any better than what the faceoff stats show though (ie % of faceoffs taken in each zone). Until they start recording actual time with the puck in each zone we'll have to settle with these stats anyway.

The more you have the puck you better you do. Except when there exceptions. Usually. Sometimes.

Then there's PP, PK, goaltending, players being better shots than others, and any other variable.

Stats are fun to look at but they're just stats. I wouldn't make any bets based on them. Maybe I'd use them to make me feel better about a bet I was already going to make but that's it.
- daeth

That's their entire point, and they don't really do a good job at that.


Agreed about the faceoff points and recording actual time in each zone.

ROFL, let's recap...

The predictive ability is challenged.

You provide something that shows the advanced stats predicted 15 of 16 playoff teams on Jan 26, 2012 or whatever it was,

I point out that the actual league standings at the time also predicted 15 of 16 playoff teams teams.

You don't even get the point that is being made here?

By the way... when this whole mess was started around here, by Yost, he brought up the same fact you did about the 2012 playoff prediction. I challenged it the same way.

You know what the rebuttal was from Yost and his minions?

Nothing. Nada. Zilch.

It has been brought up again since, and you know what the response was by the stats monkeys?

Nothing. Nada. Zilch.

... unfortunately, for you guys, that doesn't make the point go away.
- Aetherial

I really wish scotch_tape stuck around after making a fool of himself. Scotch Tape my ass. More like Velcro.

I was impressed with Bolland showing some slick hands and skill last night, maybe the Leafs weren't kidding that he can hold his own playing top six shifts. He drives the net too, both he and JVR pop a lot front of the net.
- Zezel

I said it early. Im loving both those guys so far. Use their size and have some impressive hands. I hope they touch me. That would be nice.

Two words to advanced stats:
Jonathan Bernier.

He's reminding me more and more of Marty. I admit, I was wrong about him. He's winning me over.

Two words to advanced stats:
Jonathan Bernier.
- mykokes

Is Power play one word or two? Powerplay. Power play. hmmm

ROFL, let's recap...

The predictive ability is challenged.

You provide something that shows the advanced stats predicted 15 of 16 playoff teams on Jan 26, 2012 or whatever it was,

I point out that the actual league standings at the time also predicted 15 of 16 playoff teams teams.

You don't even get the point that is being made here?

By the way... when this whole mess was started around here, by Yost, he brought up the same fact you did about the 2012 playoff prediction. I challenged it the same way.

You know what the rebuttal was from Yost and his minions?

Nothing. Nada. Zilch.

It has been brought up again since, and you know what the response was by the stats monkeys?

Nothing. Nada. Zilch.

... unfortunately, for you guys, that doesn't make the point go away.
- Aetherial

someone just got run over by a MACK truck!!

So people with statistics degrees that are into this stuff are wasting their time? Those analytics conferences are a waste of time? NHL teams hiring people for these purposes is a waste of time?

The same debate exsisted in baseball over this type of thing, why would hockey be any different?
- Talkshowhost

Yes, sorry, at some point they are a waste of time. They are a waste of time when they cannot be reliably used for anything.

Consider the difference between the game play of Hockey and Baseball. There are HUGE and very significant differences in how scoring happens and the nature of matchups that are defined within extremely specific parameters.

So people with statistics degrees that are into this stuff are wasting their time?

The same debate exsisted in baseball over this type of thing, why would hockey be any different?
- Talkshowhost

The sports are too different.

Compare hockey to basketball, where they're still looking for predictive stats. The interaction of 5 players, often different from one game to the next, make it virtually impossible. Baseball is a game of 1 on 1 confrontations, with huge sample sizes. And even with this they still don't try and make predictions based on the stats.

Two words to advanced stats:
Jonathan Bernier.

He's reminding me more and more of Marty. I admit, I was wrong about him. He's winning me over.
- mykokes

That's Johnny Knuckles to you, sir

Two words to advanced stats:
Jonathan Bernier.

He's reminding me more and more of Marty. I admit, I was wrong about him. He's winning me over.
- mykokes

Poor James Reimer. that .920 last season gets him no credit

Two words to advanced stats:
Jonathan Bernier.

He's reminding me more and more of Marty. I admit, I was wrong about him. He's winning me over.
- mykokes

Take it a notch down kokes.

A year or two ago, I would have traded our roster for the Oilers. Well, I wouldn't have, but I would have strongly considered it.

Funny how a little patience changes everything. I wouldnt trade our roster with any team aside from Boston, LA, Chicago and Pitts.

Feel free to troll this post. I stand by it.

Is Power play one word or two? Powerplay. Power play. hmmm
- Gunslinger

I would say 2 words.

Unfortunately, it is too early to annoint Bernier as a premier goalie in this league or even as our #1. Gustavsson had a couple good stretches also.

So people with statistics degrees that are into this stuff are wasting their time? Those analytics conferences are a waste of time? NHL teams hiring people for these purposes is a waste of time?

The same debate exsisted in baseball over this type of thing, why would hockey be any different?
- Talkshowhost

awsome argument.. no one is saying the math isn't correct, it's saying based solely on a knowledge of hockey that they aren't overly important.