No.

When my team loses, it sucks. Always.
- systemtool

You're a miserable person then.

Back to advanced stats:

My main issue with advanced stats is how they are being used as the gospel rather than as complimentary stats. A system based solely on shots will always be flawed, especially when the league doesn't even record the distance of each shot or the quality of said shot in any official capacity. Even if they did it'd still be ignoring player shooting ability (ie a Kessel shot is not equal to an Orr shot), PK, PP, and goaltending among other things.

You could predict the outcome of a game simply by looking at the W-L trends of both teams over their last 20 games just as easily as you could from Corsi. Probably more so.
- daeth

There are probably dozens of grown men clapping around the world after reading this.

that's fine. but it's the way you dismiss it so condescendingly that's odd. you misunderstand the value the people place in them. these stats don't say IF YOU HAVE GOOD STATS YOU ARE A GOOD TEAM. they say IF YOU HAVE GOOD STATS, YOU HAVE A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE OF BEING A GOOD TEAM. that's it. the Leafs advanced stats last year were the worst in the NHL. but clearly, they were a decent team. similarly, the Devils were i believe ranked second overall in that Corsi/Fenwick stuff. but anyone who watched NJ play knows that they sucked. so yes, there are anomalies. but if you look at the overall rankings of these stats, they paint a pretty good picture of which teams were successful and which were not.

teams in the top 10: Boston, Chicago, LA, Montreal, St. Louis... teams that finished pretty high. teams in the bottom 10: Calgary, Philly, Buffalo, Edmonton, TBay, Columbus.

they're interesting stats and ultimately, everyone wants their team to have positive numbers in those areas.
- DoubleDown

Stats are the future, I have no doubt about that, but the public stats that Mirtle and others collect are severely flawed. For starters, there is no league wide central collection point of these stats that is verified as accurate.

This is why the teams have their own stat collecting individuals, or even whole departments, because before they even begin to get into statistics, they know they need accurate collection and collation of said stats.

Teams that can afford a large staff to do this, won't share this data publicly, or with other teams, in order to gain an advantage over their opponents.

Back to advanced stats:

My main issue with advanced stats is how they are being used as the gospel rather than as complimentary stats. A system based solely on shots will always be flawed, especially when the league doesn't even record the distance of each shot or the quality of said shot in any official capacity. Even if they did it'd still be ignoring player shooting ability (ie a Kessel shot is not equal to an Orr shot), PK, PP, and goaltending among other things.

You could predict the outcome of a game simply by looking at the W-L trends of both teams over their last 20 games just as easily as you could from Corsi. Probably more so.
- daeth

They are crap because they are based on subjective judgements that vary wildly from building to building.

A couple of years ago, Toronto had twice as many hits on the road than at home.

You're a miserable person then.
- Talkshowhost

Yes.

But that isn't why I hate losing, and why I don't lie to myself about my team when they do it.

In the end you may be correct but it's been three games. You can't really draw any conclusion on Bernier after three games, or at least I can't.
- daeth

I've been a fan of bernier for a few years tho.. I actually thought LA going with quick was a mistake at the time (quick worked out admittedly lol)

I look at the little things like rebound control, positioning in the net (bernier is fearless... Always out on the top of the crease) etc.

Bernier has all star potential, reimer, while a valid starter, doesn't imo

Anybody see Freidman call out Healy last night? It was awesome, Healy was furious.

Stats are the future, I have no doubt about that, but the public stats that Mirtle and others collect are severely flawed. For starters, there is no league wide central collection point of these stats that is verified as accurate.

This is why the teams have their own stat collecting individuals, or even whole departments, because before they even begin to get into statistics, they know they need accurate collection and collation of said stats.

Teams that can afford a large staff to do this, won't share this data publicly, or with other teams, in order to gain an advantage over their opponents.
- The Shrike

Yeah but the public data collected does show a strong correlation with winning. It's not perfect, and of course statistics need context but I can't beleive people don't think getting more shots than your opponent is a key to winning.

Back to advanced stats:

My main issue with advanced stats is how they are being used as the gospel rather than as complimentary stats. A system based solely on shots will always be flawed, especially when the league doesn't even record the distance of each shot or the quality of said shot in any official capacity. Even if they did it'd still be ignoring player shooting ability (ie a Kessel shot is not equal to an Orr shot), PK, PP, and goaltending among other things.

You could predict the outcome of a game simply by looking at the W-L trends of both teams over their last 20 games just as easily as you could from Corsi. Probably more so.
- daeth

they are not being used as the gospel by any means. that's where the misunderstanding is.

Anybody see Freidman call out Healy last night? It was awesome, Healy was furious.
- Leafland

No, what happened???

they are not being used as the gospel by any means. that's where the misunderstanding is.
- DoubleDown

They are by some. Which is where the misunderstanding truly is.

Yeah but the public data collected does show a strong correlation with winning. It's not perfect, and of course statistics need context but I can't beleive people don't think getting more shots than your opponent is a key to winning.
- Talkshowhost

No.

I've been a fan of bernier for a few years tho.. I actually thought LA going with quick was a mistake at the time (quick worked out admittedly lol)

I look at the little things like rebound control, positioning in the net (bernier is fearless... Always out on the top of the crease) etc.

Bernier has all star potential, reimer, while a valid starter, doesn't imo
- Dozzer

From what I have seen I like Bernier significantly more than Reimer, it's just that I have not seen Bernier play enough while Reimer has proven that he can be a .920 SV% goalie over ~30 starts.

Anybody see Freidman call out Healy last night? It was awesome, Healy was furious.
- Leafland

Do tell...

No.
- systemtool

Well, Leafs had more shots and won so...

I wouldn't say Burke wasn't unable to do it, I just don't think he got enough credit for the groundwork and was fired prematurely.
- systemtool

Ohhhh I do give Burke lots of credit. He drafted superbly despite not having a 1st pick in 2010 or 2011. Despite that he still found a way to get great prospects.
When Burke arrived, the Leaf prospect cupboard was bare. Didn't like his job on free agents. But he did lay out the ground work for Nonis.

Well, Leafs had more shots and won so...
- Talkshowhost

They won because they scored more goals. We've been outshot and won almost as much as we outshoot and lose.

Bozak's got the same amount of points as JVR and has scored a shootout goal yet he missed an open net so he sucks and JVR is great.
- honesthockey

Bozak missed about 3 really good chances; guy lacks finish, but he's a useful cog on that line (took a hit to make a play that ended up being JVR's goal).

Do tell...
- systemtool

OMG I hate Healy, I missed that, yes, please do tell.

OMG I hate Healy, I missed that, yes, please do tell.
- GCHonda

Doubledown would be the one to ask about that.

From what I have seen I like Bernier significantly more than Reimer, it's just that I have not seen Bernier play enough while Reimer has proven that he can be a .920 SV% goalie over ~30 starts.
- daeth

Fair enough. I foresee him proving it shortly though

they are not being used as the gospel by any means. that's where the misunderstanding is.
- DoubleDown

Can't count how many times I've seen them used as the only argument as to why a team will do better or worse due to unsustainable bad/good luck.

Doubledown would be the one to ask about that.
- weirdoh

He's checking his stats. Its all a big misunderstanding.

They won because they scored more goals. We've been outshot and won almost as much as we outshoot and lose.
- systemtool

Well no, that's not true.

They won in the shoot out.

They are crap because they are based on subjective judgements that vary wildly from building to building.

A couple of years ago, Toronto had twice as many hits on the road than at home.
- Atomic Wedgie

Fenwick and Corsi also don't take into account the fact that the Leafs are probably a top 5 team at scoring off the rush. They truly aren't a great possession team but their scoring numbers are likely sustainable as is their goaltending & PK.