saying they might miss the playoffs is unrealistic?
- DoubleDown

More or less. Typical Habs fans automatically say that out hatred between the two clubs.

Many make it out as if everone is 40 years old and will run out of gas after 10 games.

Leafs have a lot of fresh young legs IMO.
- Stee-Dot

has nothing to do with running out of gas. the advanced stats point to the Leafs winning percentage being completely out of whack with their possession time, shot differential, etc. while also pointing out an abnormally high shooting %. you guys like to tell everyone that it's "Carlyle's system", but what the advanced stats people say is that over the course of a full season, that winning % would even out if those stats remain the same.

basically, they're saying the Leafs were lucky. we'll know in 6 months if they're right or wrong.

Doesn't change the fact they played way better than they should have and are likley to regress towards the mean. 7th place finish.
- muffin_man

Could go the other way too.

tell me how Murray is a great skater again.
- Fountain-San

Gotcha.

i think it's even more about goaltending. what if Anderson's play regresses to his career norms? or if Jimmy Howard's play slips a bit? (Wings would not have been in the playoffs with anything but excellent goaltending). and what if Price's game takes a step up or Bernier plays to his potential? i find the teams are clumped together enough that goaltending will be the great divide.
- DoubleDown

Its a very good post. Thomas could carry Fla farther than people think...maybe Nabokov and Lundqvist poop the bed. New pads could lead to injuries etc etc

Many make it out as if everone is 40 years old and will run out of gas after 10 games.

Leafs have a lot of fresh young legs IMO.
- Stee-Dot

well they better than those young TB players that killed it in the Calder Cup last year.

Could go the other way too.
- Stee-Dot

The other way? Like their shooting percentage will go up to an even more unrealistic 30%?

You're right, it COULD.

has nothing to do with running out of gas. the advanced stats point to the Leafs winning percentage being completely out of whack with their possession time, shot differential, etc. while also pointing out an abnormally high shooting %. you guys like to tell everyone that it's "Carlyle's system", but what the advanced stats people say is that over the course of a full season, that winning % would even out if those stats remain the same.

basically, they're saying the Leafs were lucky. we'll know in 6 months if they're right or wrong.
- DoubleDown

Fair enough assessment.

I guess we'll touch base in 6 months then.

only because he was phenomenal to start the year and the team coasted along on that start. In a full season, they finish 7-9
- muffin_man

i wouldn't say he was phenomenal. he was very good for the first 35-40 games but he wasn't the main reason for the success, just one of many key elements. but when he went into the tank, that was it.

The other way? Like their shooting percentage will go up to an even more unrealistic 30%?

You're right, it COULD.
- muffin_man

I meant they could have a very successful season

Doesn't change the fact they played way better than they should have and are likley to regress towards the mean. 7th place finish.
- muffin_man

They still won alot of games in a very hard division, 4 out 8 playoffs sport in the east were filled by teams from the North east. What they accomplished was impressive. Whitout relying solely on a hot goalie and special teams.

Fair enough assessment.

I guess we'll touch base in 6 months then.
- Stee-Dot

How (frank)ing exciting for him. DD, better pencil that day in for a lower GI.

Its a very good post. Thomas could carry Fla farther than people think...maybe Nabokov and Lundqvist poop the bed. New pads could lead to injuries etc etc
- Pie

Thomas in Florida hit me last night. like "poop there are 4 games that should have been easy wins that are now going to be a grind"... i hate that man.

has nothing to do with running out of gas. the advanced stats point to the Leafs winning percentage being completely out of whack with their possession time, shot differential, etc. while also pointing out an abnormally high shooting %. you guys like to tell everyone that it's "Carlyle's system", but what the advanced stats people say is that over the course of a full season, that winning % would even out if those stats remain the same.

basically, they're saying the Leafs were lucky. we'll know in 6 months if they're right or wrong.
- DoubleDown

Carlyle system: Get outshot every game, let the other team control the play, run at at a ridiculous shooting %. WIN!

They still won alot of games in a very hard division, 4 out 8 playoffs sport in the east were filled by teams from the North east. What they accomplished was impressive. Whitout relying solely on a hot goalie and special teams.
- Fredobbface

the thing i question is whether Montreal can play 82 games' worth of the aggressive puck-pursuit style Therrien had them play. it was entertaining and led to a ton of goals, but given our size in the top 9, i'm not sure how you can do that for 82 games.

Thomas in Florida hit me last night. like "poop there are 4 games that should have been easy wins that are now going to be a grind"... i hate that man.
- DoubleDown

It will be interesting to see what he can do after the layoff. I think he's going to be half what he was.

How (frank)ing exciting for him. DD, better pencil that day in for a lower GI.
- Pie

the thing i question is whether Montreal can play 82 games' worth of the aggressive puck-pursuit style Therrien had them play. it was entertaining and led to a ton of goals, but given our size in the top 9, i'm not sure how you can do that for 82 games.
- DoubleDown

yup. 82 will grind them down. but whatever is left should be pretty lean for the POs if they make it.

the thing i question is whether Montreal can play 82 games' worth of the aggressive puck-pursuit style Therrien had them play. it was entertaining and led to a ton of goals, but given our size in the top 9, i'm not sure how you can do that for 82 games.
- DoubleDown

I doubt it and either way I doubt this lineup can do much in the playoffs with the current makeup.

the lack of toughness and size in the top 6 will not be made up for by a tougher 4th line.

It's really all on whether Carey Price can steal enough games early on to get them in a decent position.

It will be interesting to see what he can do after the layoff. I think he's going to be half what he was.
- Pie

That should leave plenty of space to shoot at.

That should leave plenty of space to shoot at.
- hscesq

I doubt it and either way I doubt this lineup can do much in the playoffs with the current makeup.

the lack of toughness and size in the top 6 will not be made up for by a tougher 4th line.

It's really all on whether Carey Price can steal enough games early on to get them in a decent position.
- dt99999

you missed the original post which stated this very thing.

the thing i question is whether Montreal can play 82 games' worth of the aggressive puck-pursuit style Therrien had them play. it was entertaining and led to a ton of goals, but given our size in the top 9, i'm not sure how you can do that for 82 games.
- DoubleDown

If they can't they don't deserve to be in the NHL. I'm not saying they will all have a great night every game. But at least 3 of the 4 lines can have an impact any given day.

It's a change from the days of Perezhogin - Bonk - Johnson

you missed the original post which stated this very thing.
- Pie

yes this is highly probable.

If they can't they don't deserve to be in the NHL. I'm not saying they will all have a great night every game. But at least 3 of the 4 lines can have an impact any given day.

It's a change from the days of Perezhogin - Bonk - Johnson
- Fredobbface

Pérégéhoguine