Great read! Look forward to your next article.

Bcase, you're from herndon?! I live right off dranesville. small world.

I think its way too early to give up on holtby. He seems to be turning into the real deal and i wouldnt be surpised if he has a better season than miller.

I think caps should go into next season with what they have. Looks pretty good to me. Maybe adding a #4 dman to push erskine to the 3rd pairing with hillen would be a nice addition. Other than i think they have a pretty strong roster.

I think its way too early to give up on holtby. He seems to be turning into the real deal and i wouldnt be surpised if he has a better season than miller.

I think caps should go into next season with what they have. Looks pretty good to me. Maybe adding a #4 dman to push erskine to the 3rd pairing with hillen would be a nice addition. Other than i think they have a pretty strong roster.
- pbrsimps

Thanks for the read and comment. I can agree with the sentiment of it being early to move Holtby. As for Holtby having better stats this year, I would hope any goaltender not wearing a Sabre jersey to have better stats. Let's see how Holtby's consistency is for a full season, this is unproven yet.

I hear the 4th dman concerns, however, letting Poti and Schultz go (other than cap reasons and their decline in skill) now gives young d-men in the Caps system their shot finally. The Caps had too many guys, and without those two around, now can truly assess which young guys are NHL caliber. Also, with how well balanced the 2nd-4th lines are, I think the thought process is that they will be able to compensate for the D. Especially given how strong some of the players on those lines are in the D-zone.

This trade you're suggesting makes absolutely zero sense. Holtby is young, inexpensive, and very good. Miller has likely seen his best years already.

The Caps clearly need Defense depth. If you trade Green away without getting D in return, that makes no sense. The Caps would absolutely need to follow this trade with another trade, and that would mean weakening forward depth.

gggg

Thanks for the read and comment. I can agree with the sentiment of it being early to move Holtby. As for Holtby having better stats this year, I would hope any goaltender not wearing a Sabre jersey to have better stats. Let's see how Holtby's consistency is for a full season, this is unproven yet.

I hear the 4th dman concerns, however, letting Poti and Schultz go (other than cap reasons and their decline in skill) now gives young d-men in the Caps system their shot finally. The Caps had too many guys, and without those two around, now can truly assess which young guys are NHL caliber. Also, with how well balanced the 2nd-4th lines are, I think the thought process is that they will be able to compensate for the D. Especially given how strong some of the players on those lines are in the D-zone.
- Bcase30

@Abware: Hemsky is one of my favorite guys on Edmonton particularly for his great abilities to snipe. However, his declining statistics and previous injury history would be my concern if I were in management. In addition, I believe that given he is in his last year, most GM's would want to see how his body holds in a full season, as well as where his playing level currently is at. At 30, he still has a lot of good years ahead of him for a team that needs a player with the potential to put up +70 points in a season (refer to 05-06). 2005-06 was also the only full season currently in his entire NHL career and he was 23. I have read a lot about trying to find a place to move Hemsky, however, unfortunately I think he is not going to be touched until the trade deadline when a team needs an offensive upgrade.

In regards to Fehr, he is a great price, age and potential for a third line player. He has the flashes of showing that he could be a reliable second liner, but isn't quite consistent enough yet. I have read articles indicating the the center position in Edmonton is one in most question. He would more than fill that void, especially because he is a great two-way power forward at 6'4. I think to get him, Edmonton would have to offer something offensive and young.

Personally, I love Edmonton's entire team (favorite NHL '13 team too), the one issue is your goaltender; I believe prevents you from being a cup contending team this year. I think your more suitable partner for Hemsky would actually be Buffalo. What would you think about Dubnyk, Hemsky and one of your top D picks and/maybe a 1st? Edmonton could afford to miss a first round pick, Dubnyk is good and has good potential but is more than expendable (LaBarbera is a great career backup and Bachman could develop really nicely with a full AHL season despite his NHL experience in Dallas.) Hemsky is on the block, so always great to move him and his salary.
- Bcase30

sent you a pm dude

Again, you are wrong. The East actually did much better against the West than .500. In fact, between the Atlantic and Northeast, only one was under .500 and two were right at .500. However, your SE division, 3 teams were below .500. In addition, it is definitely arguable that teams in the Atlantic and Northeast have improved since the 2011-12 season (exception NJD and Buffalo). You still fail to acknowledge the increase in talent and competition. In addition, you fail to acknowledge the decrease of games against previous SE division teams and the impact of the Caps success against them on the Caps overall record. See below:

1
z - NY Rangers
82 51 24 7 109 47 10-6-2 3-3-0 3-2-0 4-1-2
2
x - Pittsburgh
82 51 25 6 108 42 13-2-3 4-1-1 5-0-1 4-1-1
3
x - Philadelphia
82 47 26 9 103 43 11-5-2 4-3-0 3-1-1 4-1-1
4
x - New Jersey
82 48 28 6 102 36 10-6-2 4-0-1 2-4-0 4-2-1
5
NY Islanders
82 34 37 11 79 27 7-7-4 1-3-2 4-1-1 2-3-1
Northeast GP
W
L
OT
P
ROW
vs WEST vs CEN vs NW vs PAC
1
y - Boston
82 49 29 4 102 40 11-6-1 5-0-1 2-3-0 4-3-0
2
x - Ottawa
82 41 31 10 92 35 7-9-2 2-3-0 4-2-2 1-4-0
3
Buffalo
82 39 32 11 89 32 11-6-1 2-5-0 4-0-1 5-1-0
4
Toronto
82 35 37 10 80 31 9-6-3 3-2-0 4-3-1 2-1-2
5
Montréal
82 31 35 16 78 26 7-7-4 2-2-1 3-3-2 2-2-1
Southeast GP
W
L
OT
P
ROW
vs WEST vs CEN vs NW vs PAC
1
y - Florida
82 38 26 18 94 32 5-7-6 0-4-2 2-0-4 3-3-0
2
x - Washington
82 42 32 8 92 38 8-10-0 4-3-0 2-3-0 2-4-0
3
Tampa Bay
82 38 36 8 84 35 9-7-2 3-4-0 2-1-2 4-2-0
4
Winnipeg
82 37 35 10 84 33 8-9-1 0-4-1 4-3-0 4-2-0
5
Carolina
82 33 33 16 82 32 8-6-4 3-3-1 3-1-1 2-2-2

As for your thoughts on Green: Let’s take a walk down memory lane and look at Whitney’s career as he is a perfect example of a comparison player. It is easy to say a player simply sucked because he was playing for Edmonton for the past three years and also was battling constant injuries. However, here is the scoop on Whitney in case you didn’t know it. He was a 2002 5th round, 1st round pick by Pitt. He is currently two years older than Green, sitting at 30. In 2009-2010, he was also on the US Olympic team. He hasn’t been able to play a full season since his second in the NHL, 2006-07. In addition, his rookie season with Pitt in 05-06 was when they were second worst in the league. The fact that he played four years for a team that was either last or second to last every year except this past half season since 2009-10. Thus, in his 9 NHL seasons, he has played for a team in the bottom of the NHL 4 of 9. He also has a Stanley Cup ring on his finger (06-07), where’s Greens? Whitney, throughout his career averages .55 points per game. Looking at the numbers, one will see that it appears Whitney may be better as a set up defender, which could be a benefit for the power play and at even strength for Ovie. In addition, at 6’4, 210 he fits the type of play the Caps are going to be exposed to more.

As for Green’s history-He has played for a consistently, much better team and has similar stats. He also has injury problems. While two years ago Green still held high value, I think you’re a bit stuck in the past. Green has to prove himself this year. Last year, for all NHL players didn’t put the wear and tear on the bodies of players. The rigors of a full season will dictate how high these values truly are. Also, both players have 9 seasons in the NHL. Green is really more like 8, as 05-06 was limited time. Since the 2007-08 season, the Caps have been a perennial powerhouse in the SE, but yet there is no hardware. Even my NJD made the Cup finals more recently than the Caps, however, Oates and Kolzig can tell you about how that went (1996-97). Green throughout his career averages .64 points per game. At 6’1, Green is a good size for an NHL defender, however, is still more on the finesse side. Categories below for the stats are Games played, goals, assists, plus/minus, penalty minutes, pp goals, sh goals, game winning goals, shots, and shot %.

2005-2006
Penguins
68 6 32 38 -7 85 2 0 1 113 5.3
2005-2006 Wilkes-Barre Penguins-AHL 9 5 9 14 7 6 3 0 3
2006-2007
Penguins
81 14 45 59 9 77 9 0 2 129 10.9
2007-2008
Penguins
76 12 28 40 -2 45 7 1 1 119 10.1
2008-2009
Penguins
28 2 11 13 -15 16 1 0 0 42 4.8
2008-2009
Ducks
20 0 10 10 1 12 0 0 0 29 0.0
2008-2009 Wilkes-Barre Penguins-AHL 1 0 1 1 -1 2 0 0 0
2009-2010
Ducks
62 4 24 28 -6 48 3 0 0 107 3.7
2009-2010
Oilers
19 3 8 11 7 22 0 0 1 44 6.8
2009-2010 United States-Olympics 6 0 0 0 0
2010-2011
Oilers
35 2 25 27 13 33 0 0 0 43 4.7
2011-2012
Oilers
51 3 17 20 -16 16 2 0 0 41 7.3
2012-2013
Oilers
34 4 9 13 -7 23 0 0 0 30 13.3
NHL TOTALS 474 50 209 259 -23 377 24 1 5 697

2005-2006
Capitals
22 1 2 3 -8 18 0 0 0 13 7.7
2005-2006 Bears-AHL 56 9 34 43 79
2006-2007
Capitals
70 2 10 12 -10 36 0 0 0 68 2.9
2007-2008
Capitals
82 18 38 56 6 62 8 0 4 234 7.7
2007-2008 Canada-WC-A 9 4 8 12 2
2008-2009
Capitals
68 31 42 73 24 68 18 1 4 243 12.8
2009-2010
Capitals
75 19 57 76 39 54 10 0 4 205 9.3
2010-2011
Capitals
49 8 16 24 6 48 5 0 1 115 7.0
2011-2012
Capitals
32 3 4 7 5 12 3 0 1 64 4.7
2012-2013
Capitals
35 12 14 26 -3 20 4 0 2 96 12.5
NHL TOTALS 433 94 183 277 59 318 48 1 16 1,038 9.1
Whitney:NHL TOTALS 474 50 209 259 -23 377 24 1 5 697

Looking at Green in terms of comparison to Caps, you will see that his stats were actually at the bottom in terms of plus minus. Please reference the stats of Olesky, Kundratek and Hillen below. Erskine, Hillen and Olesky had significantly better plus/minus (+10,+9 and +9 respectively). They also put up decent offensive production, which in an 82 game season could look at all of them being 20-30 point producers, which is solid for 4th-6th spot defensemen. Kundratek was the only one who had a lower plus/minus (-5) and it was barely lower than Greens (-3). Also, a majority of Green’s points came from the PP, which would indicate he is far less of a threat 5-5 than previously, and is more of a defensive liability. In addition, he only had 8 points in the first 20 games, thus statistically finishing hot, which paralleled how the Caps last half of the season was. Yes, he is one of your top 4 D-men, however, Alzner and Carlson are more Metro division valuable I would say. They are also significantly younger than Green. You may just find that Greens career takes a very similar path to Whitney, it’s not that farfetched to believe. Here are the stats:http://www.nhl.com/ice/pl...status=&viewName=summary#

As for Chimera, he played an average of 12 minutes a game last year and was 11th on the team in points. We have plenty of players similar playing style of Chimera (Brouwer, Ward, Fehr). He was 2nd to last on the team in plus/minus (-6). Please reference his stats here: http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8466251

As for Holtby, the comp would be Cory Schnieder, and he went for a 9th overall pick straight up. For starters, Holtby was a diamond in the ruff with average NHL size and being a 4th round pick in 2008. Schnieder was a 26th overall pick in 2004. He too is listed at 6’2, so similar size to Holtby. However, he hasn’t had the luxury of sitting behind no-one, hence the Loungo problem. However, what this does mean is that he has been mentored by one of the best NHL goaltenders for three full seasons, and part of 2 others. He is more mature, proven, and better groomed than Holtby. Schnieder’s career and individual season stats are better but comparable to Holtby’s. Schnieder’s post season stats in 2010-11 and 2011-12 had games against the Cup Champion as well (also has Stanley Cup finals experience). Particularly, his 2011-12 stats against LAK are significantly notable as he posted a .96 save % and a 1.31 GAA. Here are the stats with Holtby at the top for both regular season and playoffs: Categories are games played, wins, losses, shutouts, shots against, save %, GAA and total minutes.
NHL TOTALS 57 37 16 0 4 7 127 1,647 .923 2.39 3,186
NHL TOTALS 98 55 26 0 8 9 197 2,715 .927 2.20 5,372

Playoffs:
NHL TOTALS 21 10 11 1 46 664 .931 2.04 1,355

NHL TOTALS 10 1 4 0 20 258 .922 2.59 463

Ultimately, Green is at a precarious point in his career. Chimera is a third line forward who is easily expendable with Wilson sitting in the wings. Holtby, is great but again I think the rigors of the Metro division, actual west coast travel this year, and a young defense will mean that Holtby will have to be outstanding, not average. I may be off in my assessment of value, however, I feel that the stats accurately portray that it might be time for Washington to try a new strategy. Afterall, trying the same thing over and over again expecting differing results is the definition of insanity…

Even refer to Dave Unger’s article which at the bottom of the analysis on our first round pick states it bluntly:


Here is the link for your enjoyment: http://bleacherreport.com...s-2013-draft-picks/page/2.

Thanks for the comment, however, I think you are a bit jaded in your beliefs of the Caps and some of their players.
- Bcase30

Whoa, first of all, lets begin by asking you how am I wrong again? Secondly, I was basing the comparison on a few years back, not just last season, which as a whole, the East gets trounced by the West. Welp, good job on the East for finally beating the West in a shortened season. I guess I should have clarified, since you're on this whole, ya know, shifting of power thing. Obviously, projections are always right after a shortened season when comparing teams from different conferences.

You compared Whitney to Green.

How am I jaded when you want to trade core players away? Do you know what jaded means?

We didn't make the finals in '97.

Green is a finesse defenseman?

Alright, I'm done with your blogs.

Ultimately, Green is at a precarious point in his career. Chimera is a third line forward who is easily expendable with Wilson sitting in the wings. Holtby, is great but again I think the rigors of the Metro division, actual west coast travel this year, and a young defense will mean that Holtby will have to be outstanding, not average. I may be off in my assessment of value, however, I feel that the stats accurately portray that it might be time for Washington to try a new strategy. Afterall, trying the same thing over and over again expecting differing results is the definition of insanity…

Trading these three pieces, a gross overpayment acknowledged by fans of all teams, for a one year rental "go for it now" goalie, who is declining, fits insanity a bit more than Einstein's overused quote. Holtby is 23 years old and has 1 full season, a shortened one, under his belt..and you feel it necessary to try a new strategy? He didn't take us to the finals the year he replaced Vokoun/Neuvy? He didn't take us to the Finals in his first season as a starter? Kill him.

What's insane, is you finding all these problems in our new schedule..no more SE, more West games, improved competition..empty rhetoric you hear every year about the league....and expecting that by trading one of our top-4 defenders and our young goalie for an older goalie, all these problems are magically solved.

I also loved how you used Schnieder as a comp, obviously the best one, instead of Reimer, or even Duby. You want to talk about playing on good teams? Schneider. Oh wait, that sort of reasoning only seems to come out of you when it fits your argument. Lets compare Holtby to the #1 goaltender prospect for years before he finally got his shot.

We may not make the playoffs this year. We are not making the playoffs if we trade green and Holtby for Miller. That's the bottom line.

I've pushed to trade green for 3 years now, as early as the draft and after. I still see trading partners with Calgary or Colorado. The one you suggest is so far off the mark, it's laughable. How is it even a plausible trade proposal? Why is Green waivering his NTC to go to Buffalo? (Before you say it, He's a Calgarian, and Colorado at least has a forward core in place.)

As for that Dave Unger quote... Yes, obviously because we picked Burakovsky it means the Capitals have stuck to a finesse-only game plan. Tom Wilson, finesse player. Trading for finesse players like Brouwer and Erat...extending Chimera..re-signing Fehr. Stocked with finesse-only players. finley, Pokulok, other high pick busts...apparently you were ALL finesse players trying to fit into the Capitals finesse-only Euro game plan. Generally, you pick skill players with your high picks anyway.

I'm moving this here from the other guest blog, since this one has more hits.

As it currently stands, we are left with 2.66 in cap space to re-sign Johansson, and possibly others. Majo, producing at a clip of .51 PPG, and yo-yoing around the lineup has a few comparables, starting with Backlund (1.5 AAV) on the low-end. Unsigned RFAs, Stepan, Hodgson, Kadri, and Henrique on the high-end, who all produced at a higher clip, albeit all, minus Kadri, had expanded roles with their club. They should all sign for more than Majo, but it's hard to place a value on these guys, depending on how you see them. Some guys who have done less on their ELC received a big raise based on intangibles or potential, while others meager raises ranging from 1.2-1.6 AAV. Ideally, he will receive a 2-year bridge, at a hit of 1.8. Though I realistically see that number being higher, which would require a trade. Chimera, Erskine, and Ward are the first targets, in my opinion, though I imagine there is not much chatter for any of these guys at the moment. Trading Erskine without bringing in a better defender also leaves a gap in the second pair, which is already apparent with Erskine slated there.

Also, Brouwer is a right winger, as is Erat. But under Oates, it is evident that he much prefers to put right-handed shots on the right, and the same for the left wing. He is almost obsessed with it, it seems, while most of his line combinations consisted of left-handed shots on the left and the same for the right. Brouwer will be on his right, and Erat on his left.
Defense has the top-4 locked (though we will probably see Erskine moved down to the bottom pair at some points in the season), with Hillen, Kundratek, Oleksy, and Orlov competing for the final pair. Oleksy and Orlov are on two-way deals, and I believe Kundratek is as well, leaving Hillen with one of the younger guys. Again, Oates obsession with left-handed shots on the left and vice versa is a factor, so I give the slight edge to Oleksy, who also played the most games on the big club last year. Projected lineups, as it stands;
FORWARDS
Marcus Johansson ($1.800m) / Nicklas Backstrom ($6.700m) / Alex Ovechkin ($9.538m)
Martin Erat ($4.500m) / Mikhail Grabovski ($3.000m) / Troy Brouwer ($3.667m)
Jason Chimera ($1.750m) / Brooks Laich ($4.500m) / Eric Fehr ($1.500m)
Jay Beagle ($0.900m) / Mathieu Perreault ($1.050m) / Joel Ward ($3.000m)
Aaron Volpatti ($0.575m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Karl Alzner ($2.800m) / John Carlson ($3.967m)
John Erskine ($1.963m) / Mike Green ($6.083m)
Jack Hillen ($0.700m) / Steven Oleksy ($0.542m)
Tomas Kundratek ($0.550m) /
GOALTENDERS
Braden Holtby ($1.850m)
Michal Neuvirth ($2.500m)
------
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $63,434,295; BONUSES: $0
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $865,705

Much flexibility exists between the wingers, as well as Laich, who can wind up playing every where, including second line left winger, moving MP to the third line where he rightfully deserves, keeping Beagle, our best face off guy, at center on the fourth line. The right wingers, minus Ovi, can all juggle up and down the lineup, though I suspect Brouwer will be looked upon to keep up his pace from the shortened season. A rather strong top-9 with the signing of Grabovski, and not a bad bottom-6, though with the Capitals, looking good on paper means nothing. In my opinion, an upgrade at top-4 d is needed, though more significant salary must go out, or an overpay must be given to entice the club to retain salary.

This roster looks significantly better than one minus Green, Chimera plus Miller.

FORWARDS
Marcus Johansson ($2.000m) / Nicklas Backstrom ($6.700m) / Alex Ovechkin ($9.538m)
Martin Erat ($4.500m) / Mikhail Grabovski ($3.000m) / Troy Brouwer ($3.667m)
Brooks Laich ($4.500m) / Mathieu Perreault ($1.050m) / Eric Fehr ($1.500m)
Jason Chimera ($1.750m) / Jay Beagle ($0.900m) / Joel Ward ($3.000m)
Aaron Volpatti ($0.575m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Mike Green ($6.083m) / John Carlson ($3.967m)
Karl Alzner ($2.800m) / John Erskine ($1.963m)
Jack Hillen ($0.700m) /Steven Oleksy ($0.542m) /
Tomas Kundratek ($0.550m)

GOALTENDERS
Braden Holtby ($1.850m)
Michal Neuvirth ($2.500m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $63,634,295; BONUSES: $0
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $665,705