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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Golbourne and Low-Ceiling Drafting
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Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 14 @ 12:48 PM ET
Couturier was a no brainer picking at number 8 considering some had him in the top three and he slipped. Giroux was a dandy at 23 I believe but other than that there is not one other player on the team that was drafted by the Flyers in any round in the last 10 years. Gagne was previous and if you want to count Carter, RIchards they obviouly did not work out either because you don't trade players that work out.
- flyerdude17


Carter and Richards did work out. The Oilers traded Gretzky, and I doubt anyone would say he didn't work out for them.

The Flyers had a lot of success with Richards and Carter, and decided to make a change. It doesn't mean they didn't work out, just means they went in a different direction
JoeyG1951
Location: Campbell River, BC
Joined: 05.23.2010

Jul 14 @ 12:50 PM ET
Not that he had zero input, but I think people are really overstating Pronger's influence in who they drafted. I know he did some scouting, and saw several prospects live, because he said he did. I know he looked at film, because he and Holmgren said he did.

Being a star player doesn't make a guy a great coach, GM or scout. Look at Phil Esposito. Awesome player, fair to middling GM

- Jsaquella


I agree about great players do not always make great coaches but I know a player like Pronger could watch a young guy like Morin, talk to him and get a real good read on what kind of player he could become. The best measuring tool is to ask opposing players what he is like to play against. They know especially if they are missing a few teeth and have a few broken bones. There are many little ways to find out about a prospective player to be drafted. RCMP in Canada do a background check on families as well as making sure the future policeman or woman comes from good homes, why would not a hockey team check all these things out as they are making a huge investment in a young man when they use a first round pick.
77rams
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: There's a kind of freedom in being completely screwed...
Joined: 09.12.2006

Jul 14 @ 12:50 PM ET
Yeah I agree. I guess my point is that you need some measure of balance, so not a pile of Golbournes, and not a pile of Gostisbeheres.
- Coburns_Nose


I agree.

Too darn hard to spell.
Don'tForgetTocchet
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ground Zero Brooklyn
Joined: 02.08.2007

Jul 14 @ 12:52 PM ET
They took us to a cup final, and they're really good players, but they aren't meant to be the #1 and #2 players on a team. Remember that NHL.com still voted Richards to be the best 24th pick of all time.
- JAKEw1234



and giroux won his spot as well i believe
2731color
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 07.17.2007

Jul 14 @ 12:52 PM ET
Couturier was a no brainer picking at number 8 considering some had him in the top three and he slipped. Giroux was a dandy at 23 I believe but other than that there is not one other player on the team that was drafted by the Flyers in any round in the last 10 years. Gagne was previous and if you want to count Carter, RIchards they obviouly did not work out either because you don't trade players that work out.
- flyerdude17

If you look at the picks in a vacuum, Carter and Richards were great picks even though they're not in the team now. They were traded from some pretty good players. If you look at their entire strategy including drafting, player development,free agents, coaching, etc., it hasn't worked if you consider the Cup as the ultimate goal.
JoeyG1951
Location: Campbell River, BC
Joined: 05.23.2010

Jul 14 @ 12:53 PM ET
Carter and Richards did work out. The Oilers traded Gretzky, and I doubt anyone would say he didn't work out for them.

The Flyers had a lot of success with Richards and Carter, and decided to make a change. It doesn't mean they didn't work out, just means they went in a different direction

- Jsaquella


You are right as usual and I take back that Carter and Richard did not work out, they did. Hence, flyerdude17, lol. Just saying I guess I was glad to see them go because they were not getting it done and their perceived off ice activities were taking over.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 14 @ 12:58 PM ET
I agree about great players do not always make great coaches but I know a player like Pronger could watch a young guy like Morin, talk to him and get a real good read on what kind of player he could become. The best measuring tool is to ask opposing players what he is like to play against. They know especially if they are missing a few teeth and have a few broken bones. There are many little ways to find out about a prospective player to be drafted. RCMP in Canada do a background check on families as well as making sure the future policeman or woman comes from good homes, why would not a hockey team check all these things out as they are making a huge investment in a young man when they use a first round pick.
- flyerdude17


I'm sure that teams do a lot of that background work. And certainly, a guy like Pronger has a huge stature to a young kid like Morin.

I think Pronger's real value there could be as a mentor. Teach him about being a professional, and trick of the trade on and off the ice.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 14 @ 1:01 PM ET
You are right as usual and I take back that Carter and Richard did not work out, they did. Hence, flyerdude17, lol. Just saying I guess I was glad to see them go because they were not getting it done and their perceived off ice activities were taking over.
- flyerdude17


That's very fair, the Flyers obviously felt there were reasons to make the moves, and they got excellent value in return.

I wouldn't say I was glad to see them go, but I am happy with the return they brought.
JoeyG1951
Location: Campbell River, BC
Joined: 05.23.2010

Jul 14 @ 1:14 PM ET
so richards and carter and justin williams are all examples of bad drafting because they're no longer on the team? that doesn't really make much sense to me
- FlyerMike18


We could argue all day but in my opinion the flyers draft success has not been good overall. In their defence we have always had a pretty good team and the draft order has not been favourable. On a plus side they have signed some pretty good free agents like Read and Bobrovsky in the last couple years.
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

Jul 14 @ 1:14 PM ET
The Flyers have drafted small players with high offensive upside in the third round of the last two drafts - Shayne Gostisbehere and Nick Cousins.

There's no need to do that every year.

- Coburns_Nose


Cousins projects by most, including Lappy, as a 3rd line energy forward with a little offense. Obviously he could surprise, but most don't think his scoring will translate to the NHL. Since Lappy was a 100 point chl scorer that only had modest offensive success in the NHL I trust his evaluation.
JoeyG1951
Location: Campbell River, BC
Joined: 05.23.2010

Jul 14 @ 1:19 PM ET
That's very fair, the Flyers obviously felt there were reasons to make the moves, and they got excellent value in return.

I wouldn't say I was glad to see them go, but I am happy with the return they brought.

- Jsaquella


I totally agree once again. I like 93 and 14 in return for 17 anyday and 10 for 18 is going to work out down the road as well. I got a new cell number the other day and I asked for the last four numbers to be 9314 for obvious reasons,lol.
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

Jul 14 @ 1:21 PM ET
We could argue all day but in my opinion the flyers draft success has not been good overall. In their defence we have always had a pretty good team and the draft order has not been favourable. On a plus side they have signed some pretty good free agents like Read and Bobrovsky in the last couple years.
- flyerdude17


I actually agree, but for different reasons. I think they have done pretty well in the first round, though I personally wouldn't give them as high of marks as some.

But as I stated in another thread, they have way under-performed after Round 1, with no significant contributions (2nd line forward or higher or top 4 dman) in the last 10 years. Most other teams have at least one or two gems. The Flyers have a few players like Rinaldo or Nodl, nice role players but easily obtained elsewhere but little else. That in my opinion is where they have failed.

Edit: Full disclosure, I think this trend will break with some of last years picks and with Hagg this year.
JoeyG1951
Location: Campbell River, BC
Joined: 05.23.2010

Jul 14 @ 1:30 PM ET
I actually agree, but for different reasons. I think they have done pretty well in the first round, though I personally wouldn't give them as high of marks as some.

But as I stated in another thread, they have way under-performed after Round 1, with no significant contributions (2nd line forward or higher or top 4 dman) in the last 10 years. Most other teams have at least one or two gems. The Flyers have a few players like Rinaldo or Nodl, nice role players but easily obtained elsewhere but little else. That in my opinion is where they have failed.

Edit: Full disclosure, I think this trend will break with some of last years picks and with Hagg this year.

- TheGreat28



I would not be surprised at all if Hagg turns out to be very special. Very promising player and many had him going in the first round.

Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Jul 14 @ 1:37 PM ET
Yeah I agree. I guess my point is that you need some measure of balance, so not a pile of Golbournes, and not a pile of Gostisbeheres.
- Coburns_Nose


Thing is, you can find your Rinaldos and Goulbournes in the late rounds and, IMO, there is no need to use a third round pick on that type of player profile.
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Jul 14 @ 1:40 PM ET
I would not be surprised at all if Hagg turns out to be very special. Very promising player and many had him going in the first round.
- flyerdude17

If he reaches his potential he'll be a total package do-it-all dman. Good hitting, good skating, shutdown D, PP quarterback, PK specialist, ES monster. He'll be our diamond in the rough P.K Subban, Shea Weber, Duncan Keith elite Dman 2nd round find that happens almost every year. If any Dman picked in the 2nd round could grow to that level, it's Hagg. 2nd place goes to Madison Bowey.
TheGreat28
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Chadds Ford, PA
Joined: 06.20.2010

Jul 14 @ 1:46 PM ET
I would not be surprised at all if Hagg turns out to be very special. Very promising player and many had him going in the first round.
- flyerdude17


I agree. It's funny, I was so disappointed and just a wee bit angry when they picked Morin, but as soon as they picked Hagg I felt immediately better. They still need at least one top pairing offensive minded defense prospect. My pessimism over the Morin pick is more because I think they'll need to get this player through the draft, so it's even longer now before they'll have one. Of course they could always trade couturier
JoeyG1951
Location: Campbell River, BC
Joined: 05.23.2010

Jul 14 @ 1:59 PM ET
If he reaches his potential he'll be a total package do-it-all dman. Good hitting, good skating, shutdown D, PP quarterback, PK specialist, ES monster. He'll be our diamond in the rough P.K Subban, Shea Weber, Duncan Keith elite Dman 2nd round find that happens almost every year. If any Dman picked in the 2nd round could grow to that level, it's Hagg. 2nd place goes to Madison Bowey.
- JAKEw1234


Sounds good but we should put a limit on how much orange koolaid we are drinking this morning, lol. Love your enthusiasm.
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Jul 14 @ 2:06 PM ET
Sounds good but we should put a limit on how much orange koolaid we are drinking this morning, lol. Love your enthusiasm.
- flyerdude17

Here's a pre-draft, non Philly associated hockey website that did a full profile of all of the major prospects:
http://thehockeywriters.c...3-draft-prospect-profile/

"ETA: 1-2 years

Risk/Reward Analysis:
Risk: 1/5 Reward: 4.5/5

NHL Potential:
Top pairing defenseman who can play PP, PK, and ES

Strengths:
Positional play
Skating
Heavy point shot
Versatility
Defensive play
Using the body
Poise
Vision

Flaws/Aspects He Needs To Work On:
Consistency
Don’t be too overly aggressive"
I'm not the only one
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 14 @ 2:31 PM ET
Here's a pre-draft, non Philly associated hockey website that did a full profile of all of the major prospects:
http://thehockeywriters.c...3-draft-prospect-profile/

"ETA: 1-2 years

Risk/Reward Analysis:
Risk: 1/5 Reward: 4.5/5

NHL Potential:
Top pairing defenseman who can play PP, PK, and ES

Strengths:
Positional play
Skating
Heavy point shot
Versatility
Defensive play
Using the body
Poise
Vision

Flaws/Aspects He Needs To Work On:
Consistency
Don’t be too overly aggressive"
I'm not the only one

- JAKEw1234


If he's that great, how come 40 players were drafted before him?
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Jul 14 @ 2:35 PM ET
If he's that great, how come 40 players were drafted before him?
- Jsaquella

Idk how did Shinkaruk fall to 24th when he was projected top 10? Players slip, and forwards tend to be picked more often in the 1st round. It's how high-end prospect like him slip to the 2nd round almost every year. It's why guys like Subban, Weber, Keith, and tons of other 1st pair Dmen weren't picked earlier.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 14 @ 2:35 PM ET
We can all offer our opinions on who they drafted. But as always, history will be the true judge of the players they drafted.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 14 @ 2:40 PM ET
I agree. It's funny, I was so disappointed and just a wee bit angry when they picked Morin, but as soon as they picked Hagg I felt immediately better. They still need at least one top pairing offensive minded defense prospect. My pessimism over the Morin pick is more because I think they'll need to get this player through the draft, so it's even longer now before they'll have one. Of course they could always trade couturier
- TheGreat28


How can you be so angry that they drafted a player, that we as fans, know very little about? It's all hype for us. We can read the write ups and scouting reports. Watch highlights on youtube or some other on line source. But that doesn't mean any of us know the player, or his potential.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 14 @ 2:40 PM ET
Idk how did Shinkaruk fall to 24th when he was projected top 10? Players slip, and forwards tend to be picked more often in the 1st round. It's how high-end prospect like him slip to the 2nd round almost every year. It's why guys like Subban, Weber, Keith, and tons of other 1st pair Dmen weren't picked earlier.
- JAKEw1234



Datsyuk went in the 6th round. Zetterberg in the 7th.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 14 @ 2:40 PM ET
Idk how did Shinkaruk fall to 24th when he was projected top 10? Players slip, and forwards tend to be picked more often in the 1st round. It's how high-end prospect like him slip to the 2nd round almost every year. It's why guys like Subban, Weber, Keith, and tons of other 1st pair Dmen weren't picked earlier.
- JAKEw1234


Exactly, there's questions about his ability to reach that ceiling. I'd be happy if Hagg ended up as a good second pair defenseman for the Flyers. I'm hoping he'll be a Kim Johnsson type guy, but I'm not counting on him being a top pair guy that plays 22-25 minutes a night.
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Jul 14 @ 2:45 PM ET
Exactly, there's questions about his ability to reach that ceiling. I'd be happy if Hagg ended up as a good second pair defenseman for the Flyers. I'm hoping he'll be a Kim Johnsson type guy, but I'm not counting on him being a top pair guy that plays 22-25 minutes a night.
- Jsaquella

Yup I'd be perfectly happy with that too.
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