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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Meltzer's Musings: Raffl and Gagne
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JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Jul 13 @ 11:05 PM ET
I'm taking BPA in the first 3 rounds, regardless of position. The only time I'd lock into a specific position is if there was a massive need for a specific spot.

In the case of the Flyers, they needed everything in their system prior to this past draft. The systemic depth was non-existent at every position on the ice.

- Jsaquella

For me 1st round is BPA, 2nd round is best available dman (Because 1st line forwards very rarely come out of the 2nd round, elite dmen come out of the 2nd round almost routinely), and 3rd round is best available goalie. 4th/5th round I'd look at the best available prospects, but have work ethic highly influence my choice. 6th/7th round I'd look almost entirely at work ethic, unless there's some guy with 1st/2nd round talent that slipped do to size/situation or whatever.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 13 @ 11:09 PM ET
For me 1st round is BPA, 2nd round is best available dman (Because 1st line forwards very rarely come out of the 2nd round, elite dmen come out of the 2nd round almost routinely), and 3rd round is best available goalie. 4th/5th round I'd look at the best available prospects, but have work ethic highly influence my choice. 6th/7th round I'd look almost entirely at work ethic, unless there's some guy with 1st/2nd round talent that slipped do to size/situation or whatever.
- JAKEw1234


I keep my options open. IMO, it's not the best strategy to simply say, "OK, it's round three, gotta take a goalie here"

What if the guy at the top of your draft board in round one is a goalie? Do you then take another in round 3? I'm not passing up Valteri Filpulla in round 3 to take Barry Brust
jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Jul 13 @ 11:10 PM ET
From what I have read-granted, I don;t care about the Sixers or NBA-they key piece in that deal was the other guy they added, Aldemir.
- Jsaquella


Just as tough in the NBA as the NHL to get a read on those foreign player and their rights. Sixers certainly have a ton of cap room.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 13 @ 11:11 PM ET
Just as tough in the NBA as the NHL to get a read on those foreign player and their rights. Sixers certainly have a ton of cap room.
- jstross


Yeah, I'm just going by what I read...I know very little about what they have going on, except it appears they're in full on tank mode.
jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Jul 13 @ 11:17 PM ET
Yeah, I'm just going by what I read...I know very little about what they have going on, except it appears they're in full on tank mode.
- Jsaquella


They're both quality players, but obstacles to both getting on board and contributing. That's why there's future considerations. A risk averse move by both teams.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 13 @ 11:23 PM ET
They're both quality players, but obstacles to both getting on board and contributing. That's why there's future considerations. A risk averse move by both teams.
- jstross


It seems as if they're content to give guys like them playing time and develop ad if it means a 10 or 12 win season, great, because the top of the draft is stacked.

JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Jul 13 @ 11:30 PM ET
I keep my options open. IMO, it's not the best strategy to simply say, "OK, it's round three, gotta take a goalie here"

What if the guy at the top of your draft board in round one is a goalie? Do you then take another in round 3? I'm not passing up Valteri Filpulla in round 3 to take Barry Brust

- Jsaquella

That's not really a fair example because that year was a very poor goaltender year. Only Cam Ward came out of it and he was a 1st round choice. But almost as if from a mold, Duncan Kieth was picked in the late 2nd round. In 2004, a team picking in the 2nd round would've had the opportunity to pick Alex Edler, although he went in the 3rd. Alex Goligoski was also picked in the 2nd. A team picking in the 3rd round would've had Pekka Rinne on the board, though it probably would've been quite a reach of a pick, I agree. In 2005, Kris Letang was the first pick of the 3rd round and was available to anyone in the 2nd round. Keith Yandle was also picked in the 4th round that year. Johnathon Quick was picked in the 3rd round that year. in 2006, Jamie McBain was picked in the 3rd round. Steve Mason was as well, and James Reimer was picked in the 4th round. 2007, P.K Subban was picked in the 2nd round, and I'll give it to you here, no more goalies that have made an impact on the NHL yet were picked in that draft, and Jamie Benn went in the 5th round of that draft. 2008, Justin Shultz was picked 2nd round (ill give you that Markstrom was picked much earlier in the 2nd), and Braden Holtby was the 2nd pick of the 4th round. There are patterns that can be taken advantage of. Sure, plenty of good forwards also came out of these rounds, but only 1 or 2 players in all those years came out of those rounds that I consider a 1st line forward. They were Paul Stastny (and he's been disappointing since is pt per game season), James Neal (though he's overrated due to playing on a line with Malkin).
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 13 @ 11:35 PM ET
That's not really a fair example because that year was a very poor goaltender year. Only Cam Ward came out of it and he was a 1st round choice. But almost as if from a mold, Duncan Kieth was picked in the late 2nd round. In 2004, a team picking in the 2nd round would've had the opportunity to pick Alex Edler, although he went in the 3rd. Alex Goligoski was also picked in the 2nd. A team picking in the 3rd round would've had Pekka Rinne on the board, though it probably would've been quite a reach of a pick, I agree. In 2005, Kris Letang was the first pick of the 3rd round and was available to anyone in the 2nd round. Keith Yandle was also picked in the 4th round that year. Johnathon Quick was picked in the 3rd round that year. in 2006, Jamie McBain was picked in the 3rd round. Steve Mason was as well, and James Reimer was picked in the 4th round. 2007, P.K Subban was picked in the 2nd round, and I'll give it to you here, no more goalies that have made an impact on the NHL yet were picked in that draft, and Jamie Benn went in the 5th round of that draft. 2008, Justin Shultz was picked 2nd round (ill give you that Markstrom was picked much earlier in the 2nd), and Braden Holtby was the 2nd pick of the 4th round. There are patterns that can be taken advantage of. Sure, plenty of good forwards also came out of these rounds, but only 1 or 2 players in all those years came out of those rounds that I consider a 1st line forward. They were Paul Stastny (and he's been disappointing since is pt per game season), James Neal (though he's overrated due to playing on a line with Malkin).
- JAKEw1234


There's examples of good players picked at every position, in every round, in just about every draft.

I could just as easily Lundqvist was a 7th rounder, and Rinne was an 8th rounder...no need to take a goalie before then!

My point is saying it's ____ round, we have to take this position is really being overly analytical. Just because some teams have done well picking defense in round two doesn't mean another will.
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Jul 13 @ 11:39 PM ET
There's examples of good players picked at every position, in just about every draft.

I could just as easily Lundqvist was a 7th rounder, and Rinne was an 8th rounder...no need to take a goalie before then!

My point is saying it's ____ round, we have to take this position is really being overly analytical. Just because some teams have done well picking defense in round two doesn't mean another will.

- Jsaquella

Right but when year after year after year elite dmen are found in the 2nd/very early 3rd, and solid goaltenders are found in the 3rd/4th round,it suggests a pattern, not a lucky find. In the 2nd and 3rd rounds, the quality of dmen and goalies found is notably higher than of the forwards found in the same rounds.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 13 @ 11:47 PM ET
Right but when year after year after year elite dmen are found in the 2nd/very early 3rd, and solid goaltenders are found in the 3rd/4th round,it suggests a pattern, not a lucky find. In the 2nd and 3rd rounds, the quality of dmen and goalies found is notably higher than of the forwards found in the same rounds.
- JAKEw1234


Part of that is draft bias. A lot of teams prefer to be "safe" with their first round picks, which usually means that teams will take forwards. A winger or center is usually ready for the NHL sooner than a defenseman or goalie.

The other part of that is the developmental curve for defense and goalies. You might not see a defenseman play regularly in the NHL until he's 23 or 24. Generally forwards make it sooner.

All I'm saying is, I disagree with any approach that says "I'm taking a goalie in the third round" because that is limiting. Keep options open.
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Jul 13 @ 11:55 PM ET
Part of that is draft bias. A lot of teams prefer to be "safe" with their first round picks, which usually means that teams will take forwards. A winger or center is usually ready for the NHL sooner than a defenseman or goalie.

The other part of that is the developmental curve for defense and goalies. You might not see a defenseman play regularly in the NHL until he's 23 or 24. Generally forwards make it sooner.

All I'm saying is, I disagree with any approach that says "I'm taking a goalie in the third round" because that is limiting. Keep options open.

- Jsaquella

Well I don't mean it has to be that strict, but those are the positions you should typically be looking at mostly in those rounds, just because of the history of it. Many more top pairing D men come out of the 2nd round than 1st line forwards. Many more starting goalies come out of the 2nd/3rd round than 1st line forwards. And for goalies especially, They take so long to develop that you really need to weigh work ethic a lot. It's the only thing you can look at that could even suggest what they'll look like in 4 years. It can suggest how quickly or well they'll grow above almost all other things. Of course when you have the highest rated goalie in the draft, their raw skills should take priority over that kind of thing, but when you get away from the highest-touted prospects, work ethic can be a tell-tale sign of who will be a good prospect and who will miss.
jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Jul 13 @ 11:56 PM ET
I think the common theme in both your posts although not stated is stop wasting 2nd-4th rd picks chasing a cup in years when you have no shot.

Flyers lucked out getting Haag, but had they lost just 5 of the last 10 wins they get Jones instead of Morin and have 3 extra higher picks. Just sour grapes, sorry.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 14 @ 12:02 AM ET
Well I don't mean it has to be that strict, but those are the positions you should typically be looking at mostly in those rounds, just because of the history of it. Many more top pairing D men come out of the 2nd round than 1st line forwards. Many more starting goalies come out of the 2nd/3rd round than 1st line forwards. And for goalies especially, They take so long to develop that you really need to weigh work ethic a lot. It's the only thing you can look at that could even suggest what they'll look like in 4 years. It can suggest how quickly or well they'll grow above almost all other things. Of course when you have the highest rated goalie in the draft, they're raw skills should take priority over that kind of thing, but when you get away from the highest-touted prospects, work ethic can be a tell-tale sign of who will be a good prospect and who will miss.
- JAKEw1234


No, you should be looking at the individual players, rather than positions.

A lot of the reason that you see good goalies and defensemen taken later is teams don't enjoy using first rounders on kids that might be 4 or 5 years away...if they arrive at all.

Chet Pickard was Nashville's 1st round pick in 2008. Highest touted goalie in the draft. He's not even on the radar any longer. Guys like him are why teams get gunshy about taking goalies high in the draft.

But it remains, I'm not even looking at position in the first three rounds, unless there is a glaring need above all others in my system for a particular position
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Jul 14 @ 12:08 AM ET
No, you should be looking at the individual players, rather than positions.

A lot of the reason that you see good goalies and defensemen taken later is teams don't enjoy using first rounders on kids that might be 4 or 5 years away...if they arrive at all.

Chet Pickard was Nashville's 1st round pick in 2008. Highest touted goalie in the draft. He's not even on the radar any longer. Guys like him are why teams get gunshy about taking goalies high in the draft.

But it remains, I'm not even looking at position in the first three rounds, unless there is a glaring need above all others in my system for a particular position

- Jsaquella

Right and I agree with not taking goalies that high, it tends to end in a wasted picks. But the 1st round has always tended to run on forwards, and like you said, with teams not wanting a player 4 or 5 years away, really good defensive prospects fall to the 2nd round. It happens every year and if taken advantage of by a more patient team, you could see individual teams getting those home run 2nd rounders like Subban, Weber, Kieth, Letang, etc almost perennially. It just takes someone more patient that's willing to wait.
mayorofangrytown
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Downingtown, PA
Joined: 08.16.2006

Jul 14 @ 12:23 AM ET
Right and I agree with not taking goalies that high, it tends to end in a wasted picks. But the 1st round has always tended to run on forwards, and like you said, with teams not wanting a player 4 or 5 years away, really good defensive prospects fall to the 2nd round. It happens every year and if taken advantage of by a more patient team, you could see individual teams getting those home run 2nd rounders like Subban, Weber, Kieth, Letang, etc almost perennially. It just takes someone more patient that's willing to wait.
- JAKEw1234

I f'n hate goalies. They never play for the flyers. Last time one gave us decent season was 1989.

Oh and Checho who I thought was great but everyone hated.
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

Jul 14 @ 12:32 AM ET
I'll reserve judgement on Raffl until he plays over here.

Sometimes, players just fall through the cracks and kudos to the Flyers front office for trying to identify those players.

That said....it's not like we, as fans, are counting on this dude to put the Flyers over the top. I'd love to see Gags back here. I'm a huge fan. That said, the fact that he and Bob Sauve are showing patience is good business; if he wants to be here, there'll be a spot. We all know a trade is imminent involving one of our defensemen.
johndewar
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: South Jersey, NJ
Joined: 01.16.2009

Jul 14 @ 12:36 AM ET
Right and I agree with not taking goalies that high, it tends to end in a wasted picks. But the 1st round has always tended to run on forwards, and like you said, with teams not wanting a player 4 or 5 years away, really good defensive prospects fall to the 2nd round. It happens every year and if taken advantage of by a more patient team, you could see individual teams getting those home run 2nd rounders like Subban, Weber, Kieth, Letang, etc almost perennially. It just takes someone more patient that's willing to wait.
- JAKEw1234


Much, much less risk taking a forward in the 1st round.

Other positions require development and work. Both development and work are overhead the organization has to pay for. Sports are still a business, so yeah....development costs money.
JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Jul 14 @ 12:41 AM ET
Much, much less risk taking a forward in the 1st round.

Other positions require development and work. Both development and work are overhead the organization has to pay for. Sports are still a business, so yeah....development costs money.

- johndewar

Yessir and the Flyers are a financial powerhouse
jstross
Joined: 06.25.2012

Jul 14 @ 12:44 AM ET
Phillies win in 13. A needed win.

JAKEw1234
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 2Spookyville, PA
Joined: 03.09.2013

Jul 14 @ 12:51 AM ET
Phillies win in 13. A needed win.
- jstross

Double header and both games go to extra innings? Rough...
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 14 @ 2:16 PM ET
Maybe you didn't notice, but I was just building off your idea that you can't judge moves based on the retrospective value of the players involved to point out how ironic it was that you approve of that deal because Legein hasn't panned out.

Anyway, good night.

- Tomahawk


You're mistaken there. I approve of the move regardless of how Legein turned out. I stated numerous times. That the idea is to make the NHL team better. And if they have to trade a propsect to do so. So be it.

The only irony here is your criticism of the Flyers in signing undrafted Free Agents, because it takes up contract spots. And you listed p;layers that they signed that didn't work out. While ignoring that Legein, who was the centerpeice of your argument, also didn't work out. Either for the FLyers or LA.

You've failed to make a legitimate case and back up your criticism of the Flyers in this area.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 14 @ 2:19 PM ET
Nobody is criticizing them for taking a chance on Legein.

We're criticizing them for signing ECHL level talent to NHL contracts and not having enough contract slots to let Couturier play until after they gave away a AHL player and a 6th rounder for future considerations.

- Jsaquella


You're criticizing after the fact. And ignoring that obviously the Flyers didn't consider the players ECHL talent when they signed them. That's the easy way out.

And I'll again repeat. The Flyers didn't lose anything. The result was the Flyers were a better team. That is the goal.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 14 @ 2:24 PM ET
Well considering they used quite a lot of NHL contract slots on guys that turned out to be ECHLer & 4th line AHL talent, then I'd say they should definitely look at things after the fact and why they felt it was a smart decision to offer contracts to older undrafted guys(most of the Testwuide type guys were in their 20's when signed) who couldn't even dress regularly for the Phantoms.

The bottom line is, they have used assets poorly. A contract slot is an asset. Having a NHL contract slot playing third line in the ECHL is poor asset management.

It's not about Legein and a 6th rounder, that's merely a symptom. The issue is poor asset management.

- Jsaquella


I disagree that they have used assets poorly. It seems as though you think the Flyers should be batting 1,000 here. Talent evaluation isn't an exact science. Sometime a player doesn't work out for other reasons besides a lack of talent. The very nature of this is that more players won't work out then will. Same as the draft. It's no different. And when a player doesn't work out, you move on. It is the same for every team.

It is about Legein and the 6th. Because that's the best example you guys can come up with. And that doesn't make the case.
Jsaquella
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bringing Hexy Back
Joined: 06.16.2006

Jul 14 @ 2:53 PM ET
I disagree that they have used assets poorly. It seems as though you think the Flyers should be batting 1,000 here. Talent evaluation isn't an exact science. Sometime a player doesn't work out for other reasons besides a lack of talent. The very nature of this is that more players won't work out then will. Same as the draft. It's no different. And when a player doesn't work out, you move on. It is the same for every team.

It is about Legein and the 6th. Because that's the best example you guys can come up with. And that doesn't make the case.

- MJL


Legein isn't the point I'm trying to make, no matter how hard you try to make it seem like he's the point.

It's about using NHL contract slots on guys that are 4th liners and healthy scratches in the AHL, or who are playing in the ECHL. I'm not saying they should be batting 1.000. I'm saying they should be less aggressive in signing so many guys to deals

If you feel that a 4th liner in the AHL is a good use of a contract slot, then there's really nothing more to talk about, because to me, that's a waste of an asset.
MJL
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Candyland, PA
Joined: 09.20.2007

Jul 14 @ 3:07 PM ET
Legein isn't the point I'm trying to make, no matter how hard you try to make it seem like he's the point.

It's about using NHL contract slots on guys that are 4th liners and healthy scratches in the AHL, or who are playing in the ECHL.

If you feel that a 4th liner in the AHL is a good use of a contract slot, then there's really nothing more to talk about, because to me, that's a waste of an asset.

- Jsaquella


You would have a point if the team knew before signing the player that he's a 4th line player in the AHL. But that's not the case. They obviously saw potential for far more in the players they signed. I'm having a hard time understanding why that concept is hard to grasp. They don't always work out. Same as drafting players don't always work out. It's not an exact science. And there's a lot of reasons why they don't. Do you really honestly believe that the Flyers seek out 4th line AHL talent level undrafted Free Agents. And sign them to contracts?
Again, calling it a wasted asset after the fact, is easy. Judging the talent before it's known how they'll turn out. That's the hard part.

And I've yet to see the evidence of all the wasted assets. And how it has hurt the team. They have 50 contracts to use.
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